Trump will not be president forever. And when he goes, Democrats will face a defining choice: exploit the executive machinery he has exposed, or dismantle it. The temptation to exploit it will be enormous—and yielding to that temptation would be a historic mistake. If post-Trump America is to be a post-authoritarian one, it will have […]

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– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]

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This commentary shows several supporting links to it. Not a mistake, just different data. A look at Immigration to the United States. I have no problem saying much of the reasoning for a decline is the result of a presidential policy of forced deportation of immigrants. I am going to guess the people leaving consist […]

The post U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Presidential Policy of Attacking Immigrants and Deporting Them appeared first on Angry Bear.

Apparently, the Trump administration feels secure enough to attack and intimidate organizations that protect the rights of individuals and minorities. It is a direct attempt to silence those who may or do oppose the actions of this administration. “Above everything else, the case against the Southern Poverty Law Center is absurd. Maybe deliberately so. It’s […]

The post Efforts to Intimidate Organizations Supporting Voters and Voting appeared first on Angry Bear.

AB: Unless you were very fortunate, you probably rented an apartment, house, or some place in which to live. Even when we started out, rent took a sizeable amount of “our” income near Chicago. Jan being a paralegal and I finishing up college certainly solved the issue over time. Even then an early on, we […]

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I chose original Medicare because I’d read about all the problems, delays and overcharges in Medicare “Advantage.” So far, I’m happy with that choice, and things don’t seem to be improving with Medicare “Advantage.” Now, it appears the Trump Administration has decided to throw sand in the gears of a government program that works. “Traditional […]

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Weekly Indicators: Points Of Weakness – Just Static? There was another air pocket this week in withholding tax payments, and some weakening in mortgage applications, but the overall tone remains positive, despite the ongoing international chaos emanating from Washington. Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive. As usual, […]

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Supposedly a $300 billion contribution gift is being made to Iran. It is coming from somewhere just like the tax breaks.. Supposedly it is not coming from the United States. Given the past experiences with Trump, it is hard to not believe this is coming from US Taxpayers. What if US taxpayers footing the bill. […]

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– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing about the economy, and employing forecasting models, for over 20 years. For the entire duration of the period, there have been portents of DOOOM written about by many others. I have been much more cautious, going on “Recession Watch” only twice since 2008: in 2019 and late 2022. […]

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Not that this is any surprise. Employers have always been looking for way to downsize Labor input in products. Whether it is through automation, better throughput due to factory upgrades, or going overseas. A I have pointed out previously, upgrading equipment (nc to cnc) can have a big input to reducing costs. Improve factory layout […]

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One of the many outrages of this political moment in America is the refusal by the Republican majorities in the House and Senate to assert the powers accorded the legislature. With the right-wing majority on the Roberts court asserting the “unitary executive theory” and presidential immunity, the only remaining threat to Trump’s seizing dictatorial powers […]

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 – by New Deal democrat  Yesterday, in addition to the retail sales report, general business sales and inventory were reported – but unfortunately only through April. Nominally, sales (red in the graph below) increased 1.2% while inventories increased 0.5%: Here is the longer term look at total business sales and inventories: In case it isn’t […]

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Intro: Former Biden CEA Chair: Jared Bernstein from his new Econ Site. Right now Jared’s site is opened to all readers with no fees for the site. You may want to take a few moments and read what he has to say on various economic topics while you can, This commentary is on inflation and […]

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Charles Gaba is the go-to-guy if you wish to learn or know about the ACA. What you are going to read about today is the cancellation of healthcare plans due to a lack of enhanced subsidies. Much of this is due to Congress not renewing the subsidies which supported people during the pandemic and the […]

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As a molecular biologist, I’m a huge fan of mRNA vaccines. I enrolled in the phase III Moderna clinical trial for the COVID mRNA vaccines. Since August 2020, I’ve had eight jabs. Yes, I did get a COVID infection along the way, but I didn’t end up in the ED or the morgue. It’s easy […]

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Struggling with complicated truths about what has made our ease possible is not a Trumpist thing. To some degree, it has often not been an American thing. As Kevin Levin, who writes the newsletter Civil War Memory, put it this week, “For generations, the history of slavery and emancipation has been minimized, distorted, or simply […]

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Elite opinion so far seems to be running against the deal, but the public may be won over. If the deal holds up, gas prices will come down. In addition, the economy will strengthen and the risk of recession will go down.  This is why I thought Trump might just walk away from the war […]

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“Obama’s Museum, Trump’s War, & the NCAA’s Latest Sports Scandal,” Kareem Takes on the News “Trumps’War“ Summary:  The U.S.-Iran deal announced this week ends roughly five-and-a-half weeks of intense military conflict plus two additional months of uneasy truce, with the primary concrete outcome being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. President […]

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This should not be much of a surprise to anyone. Unless they are independently wealthy (some are), I would expect Dems to secure their portion of donations from the politically interested. However, it appears people had more interest in Republicans this time. Trump cleaned up with three times the amount Kamala Harris received. This opens […]

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– by New Deal democrat  From 2023 through midyear 2025, there was a distinct pattern of unresolved post-pandemic seasonality to jobless claims, which rose in the first half of the year, and then declined in the second half. Beginning at the end of June last year, though, there was a “change of regime in jobless claims numbers,” […]

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