Trump's New Tariff Tantrum on China Cools Soaring Stock Market

Stocks settled decidedly lower after a rapid decline on Friday following President Donald Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on China, in which he accused the country of “becoming very hostile” with its restrictions on rare earth metals, a key resource for the tech and defense industries.
Stocks accelerated selling into the close, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 878.82 points, or 1.9%, at 45,479.60. The S&P 500 lost 2.71% to settle at 6,552.51, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.56% to 22,204.43. The broad-based index’s decline was the largest since April 10. Prior to Trump’s comments, stocks were sizably higher, with the Nasdaq hitting a new all-time intraday high.
“I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” said Trump in a post on Truth Social. “One of the policies that we are calculating at this moment is a massive increase of tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.”
Trump accused China of holding the globe “captive” using its rare earths metals resources. Earlier this week, China tightened their control on the market requiring foreign entities to get a license from Beijing to export anything that contains rare earths worth 0.1% or more of the value of the goods.
“Expectations for a China trade deal just got swept off the table,” said Jeff Kilburg, founder of KKM Financial. “Profit takers are out in full force.”
Wall Street’s fear gauge – the CBOE Volatility index – spiked above 22, ending about 4 months of a placid upward grind for the S&P 500 to record highs. The move signaled that traders were rushing to buy protection in the options market against an even bigger decline for the benchmark.
Shares of tech stocks with the most to lose from souring trade relations with China led the rapid sell-off Friday. Nvidia lost about 5%, while AMD dropped almost 8% and Tesla shed around 5%. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil fell as investors grew increasingly concerned that higher tariffs might ultimately weigh on demand.
“It’s not surprising to see technology related stocks down the most today as they have significant exposure to China in both manufacturing and as a large customer,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, told CNBC. “Clearly, our relationship with the second largest economy in the world just got more difficult,” he said.
The setback with China came as the U.S. government shutdown dragged into its 10th day on Friday, adding to the bearish sentiment to close out the week. The Senate failed for a seventh time Thursday to pass dueling stop-gap funding proposals that would have put an end to the stoppage. At this point, there have been no signs that Republicans and Democrats have made meaningful progress on negotiations.
With the ongoing shutdown, layoffs of federal workers “have begun,” Trump administration budget chief Russell Vought said in a social media post Friday.
Friday’s declines wiped out the S&P 500′s gain for the week, as the benchmark lost 2.4% for the period. The Nasdaq and the Dow also saw weekly losses of 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively.
After the close, Trump laid down the hammer, putting an extra 100% tariff on Chinese imports, and adding export controls on ‘critical software’:
President Donald Trump on Friday said the United States would impose new tariffs of 100% on imports from China “over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” starting on Nov. 1.
Trump also said that the U.S., on that same date, would also impose export controls on “any and all critical software.”
The president’s announcement came hours after he threatened to slap “a massive increase” of tariffs on Chinese imports in retaliation for new controls that China imposed on exports of rare earths minerals from that nation.
Around 70% of the global supply of rare earths minerals comes from China. The minerals are essential for high-tech industries, including automobiles, defense and semiconductors.
Trump suggested earlier Friday that he would cancel a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea because of China’s new controls.
Nearly every product imported into the U.S. from China already faces steep tariffs. While there are different levels of specific duties on imports, ranging from 50% on steel and aluminum, to 7.5% on consumer goods, the so-called effective tariff rate on Chinese imports currently is 40%, according to Wells Fargo Economics and analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
“It has just been learned that China has taken an extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some not even made by them,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday.
“This affects ALL Countries, without exception, and was obviously a plan devised by them years ago. It is absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations,” Trump wrote.
“Based on the fact that China has taken this unprecedented position, and speaking only for the U.S.A., and not other Nations who were similarly threatened, starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying,” he wrote.
“Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software.”
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Thursday said that starting Dec. 1 foreign entities must have a license to export products that contain more than 0.1% of rare earths sourced from that country, or that are manufactured using Chinese extraction, refining, magnet-making or recycling technology.
It's Friday so I will be brief with my market comment.
As I told my friends earlier: "The good thing about Trump is he's predictable and the bad thing about Trump is he's predictable."
He typically loves to lash out on Friday and maybe today he was irritated he wasn't chosen for this year's Nobel Peace prize (but might be a contender next year).
I don't know but today's announcement of retaliatory tariffs against China seems too orchestrated, as if Trump was watching CNBC and was worried the market melt-up was going parabolic so he stepped in to cool things down.
Whatever the case, prior to Friday, the market was melting up this week led by Nvidia and other shares making a new 52-week high.
It was also a great week for Canadian miner Trilogy Metals (TMQ) after the US announced it's taking a 10% stake and other rare earth mining companies like USA Rare Earth Inc (USAR) and MP Materials Corp (MP).
Gold keeps making a record high due to geopolitical concerns, fears of stagflation and the debasement of currencies.
Quantum computing stocks and other speculative stocks were ripping higher all week till Friday.
So what do I make of the latest tariff tantrum? Not much, I ignore it and will let things calm down next week and hear what the big US banks have to say when they report earnings.
I'm expecting incredible earnings from all of the big US banks led by the leader, JPMorgan.
Why? Deal activity (M&A) is up, trading revenues are up, loans continue to do well, the US economy is slowing but doing relatively well.
Earnings will be the driving force for stocks going forward but FOMO is still present and many portfolio managers will buy the dips on large cap tech shares to make up for their underperformance.
All this to say forget about another global trade war, buy the dip on stocks.
Below, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss Lee's take on the day's market action, where the buying opportunity lies and much more.
Also, Warren Pies, 3Fourteen Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what catches his eye the most, concerns around trade policy and much more.
Third, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss El-Erian's thoughts on the recent equity selloff, the current government shutdown and much more.
Lastly, Mary Lovely, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics shares her thoughts on President Trump announcing additional 100% tariffs on China and what to make of this. She talks about whether this announcement will move the US & China further apart, if President Trump’s and President Xi Jinping’s meeting will happen or be canceled, and the increase in export controls. Mary Lovely speaks with Joe Mathieu on the late edition of Bloomberg’s “Balance of Power.”
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