'Bigger, Faster, More Permanent Than All Waves Combined': No Sector Will Be Untouched By AI

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Hajnen Payson is a highly valued internet search and marketing expert.  He’s worked for companies such as Experian, UFC, LifeLock/Norton, international banks and big companies that hold government contracts that require top security clearances.  Governments and companies around the world are rushing into Artificial Intelligence (AI).  Some big names are hiring Payson to navigate the pathway to incorporate AI into just about everything you see, touch and feel.

Payson explains, “This, right now, is the very beginning of the AI Revolution..."

" I work with industry peers, executives and marketing experts daily. 

Half believe that AI integration was not as bad and won’t be as bad going forward because this year was not a disaster.  However, the other half believe it was a disaster because they experienced department cuts and hiring freezes all due to AI. 

In fact, I have a good friend where her son was denied work as an intern this summer before college because AI took the job.”

Payson goes on to say, “If we look at this and say what should younger people do?  There is no easy answer here..."

"  We are at the very beginning of the AI Revolution, and that is exactly what this is.  This is no different than the Industrial Revolution.  This is going to be a time where we are changing.  This is just like Google revolutionized what happened in search . . . AI is going to revolutionize everything.  The difference is there will be no sector, no category that will not be touched by AI. . . . For decades, businesses cut cost by offshoring and outsourcing . . .. In both cases, people still did the jobs.  This time is different.  AI does not hand the work to another human.  It deletes the need for humans in entire categories of work.  This shift will be bigger, faster and more permanent than all waves combined.”

Payson brought some real-world sources to back up what he is finding.  Payson says, “The International Monetary Fund says 40% of jobs globally are exposed to AI..."

"  In advanced economies like the United States, 60% with some jobs being replaced or complemented. . .. The World Economic Forum forecasted by 2030 AI and other tech will displace 92 million jobs . . . Even the US Treasury Department released a report that says 25% of US workers will fall into highly exposed job categories.”

In closing, Payson says, “Geoffrey Hinton is considered the grandfather of AI, and he is also a Nobel Prize winner in physics..."

"  He resigned from Google in 2023 so he could speak freely about AI, which he could not do while working for Google.  He compares the dangers of AI to nuclear weapons...

Sam Altman is the cofounder of Open AI, and he said that AI could cause lights out for all of us.”

There is much more in the 46-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on One with search and marketing strategist Hajnen Payson of DriveGrowthHQ.com with a new newsletter giving you a free deep dive on the AI Revolution that is just getting started.

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

Payson’s free website is called DriveGrowthHQ.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 12:25

"Matters Of Corruption": Biden Staff Blocked CIA From Distributing Hunter-Ukraine Concern Memo

Newly declassified memoranda show then-Vice President Joe Biden’s staff intervened in February 2016 to block the Central Intelligence Agency from circulating an intelligence report to policymakers that summarized how senior Ukrainian officials perceived his son’s business dealings and his December 2015 trip to Kyiv.

According to the documents, the request came from the vice president’s national-security adviser and was relayed inside the intelligence community by Biden’s Presidential Daily Brief briefer: “I just spoke with VP/NSA and he would strongly prefer the report not/not be disseminated. Thanks for understanding.”

A senior CIA official described the intervention as “extremely rare and unusual,” saying the material otherwise met the threshold for distribution to U.S. officials working on Ukraine policy.

The report compiled reactions from officials in the government of then-President Petro Poroshenko following Mr. Biden’s visit. Those officials “privately mused” about U.S. media scrutiny of Hunter Biden’s business ties in Ukraine and “viewed the alleged ties of the U.S. Vice President’s family to corruption in Ukraine as evidence of a double-standard within the United States Government towards matters of corruption and political power,” the CIA relayed. The same officials “expressed bewilderment and disappointment” that the vice president did not engage in expected substantive discussions with Mr. Poroshenko or other senior figures, Just the News reports.

Today, I declassified @CIA intelligence regarding Ukraine after determining it is in the public interest.

Read the report here: https://t.co/W0W1IjYFef

— CIA Director John Ratcliffe (@CIADirector) October 7, 2025

At the time, Biden had been designated President Barack Obama’s point person on Ukraine policy after the Maidan Revolution and Russia’s seizure of Crimea. His December 2015 trip has drawn scrutiny because the vice president decided then to press for the dismissal of Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin, warning that a substantial U.S. loan guarantee would be withheld if the move wasn’t made. Mr. Shokin was investigating Burisma and its owner, Mykola Zlochevsky; Hunter Biden had formally joined Burisma’s board in May 2014.

Prior to the trip, then-U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt warned Mr. Biden’s top advisers that Washington considered Burisma corrupt. Mr. Pyatt later told his successor, Marie Yovanovitch, that Hunter Biden’s role “undercut the anti-corruption message the VP and we were advancing in Ukraine,” echoing what Ukrainian officials were thinking, according to the CIA.

A senior CIA official told Just the News that, in the agency’s assessment, the report merited dissemination at the time it was drafted and would have been useful to U.S. officials dealing with Ukraine because it reflected the views of multiple senior Ukrainian figures. It was also “extremely rare and unusual,” the official said, for someone outside the intelligence community to weigh in on whether to distribute such a product; typically that decision is made within the community. The documents offer no indication of how the vice president’s office learned of the report before intervening.

The memos surfaced after a review of CIA databases that began in late 2024 under the prior administration. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has framed the disclosure within a broader push to curb politicization: “Mr. President, the CIA is being restructured at your direction to focus on our core mission and to eliminate the political – the well-documented politicization that has taken place in the intelligence community from bad actors in the past to focus on our core mission and to Make America Safe Again,” he said at a Cabinet meeting in April. The senior CIA official said Mr. Ratcliffe views the 2016 intervention as part of that politicization and opted to release the document in the interest of transparency.

The episode also intersects with long-running debates over Ukraine policy. Just the News previously reported that Biden’s push to oust Mr. Shokin “broke” with State Department and European Union assessments that the prosecutor’s progress on anti-corruption reforms was sufficient to warrant new loan guarantees. Following that reporting, fact-checkers revised their narrative and concluded that Joe had “called an audible” aboard Air Force Two on the way to Kyiv, deciding to call for Mr. Shokin’s removal.

What remains uncontested in the newly released records is the unusual nature of the vice president’s office weighing in on an intelligence-distribution decision. As the senior CIA official summarized, the information would ordinarily have been shared - absent external intervention - because it captured contemporaneous thinking among Kyiv’s senior leadership about a visiting U.S. principal and the sensitivities surrounding his family’s business ties.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 12:05

Rabobank: Gold Confirms The World Has Passed The Fiscal Event Horizon

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

France is once again engulfed in political crisis following the resignation of Prime Minister Lecornu just hours after his cabinet was sworn in. Lecornu lasted less than a month in the job, a tenure that makes Liz Truss look like Lord Liverpool. Jordan Bardella, President of the right-wing National Rally, has urged President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call fresh elections.

Lecornu’s is the third French government to collapse in the last 12 months. Former EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier lost the Premiership in December following failed attempts to pass budget measures and Francois Bayrou similarly lost a no-confidence vote last month after his attempts to rein in France’s runaway deficit were rejected by parties on the left and right.

French 10y OAT yields rose 6bps to 3.57% while 10y Bunds were comparative outperformers with yields rising just 2bps to 2.72%. The 10y OAT spread of 85bps is now 2bps wider than the spread between 10y Italian bonds and the equivalent Bund, highlighting Italy’s newfound status as an island of (comparative) political stability on the continent.

Equity markets took a similarly dim view of the latest evidence that France lacks the political capacity to pull the country out of its fiscal nosedive. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 0.41% to underperform all of the major American indices as well as the Nikkei, KOSPI, CSI300, ASX200 and TAIEX. The picture was even gloomier when drilling down into the performance of the CAC 40, which recorded a 1.36% fall on the day while the German DAX closed flat.

The Euro fell by 0.26% to 1.1711 while Sterling – presumably operating on the ‘least dirty shirt’ theory of comparative value (though, the British public finances and political apparatus are little better than the French) – rose slightly to close at 1.3485. The Dollar and gold were the big winners on Monday. The DXY index gained 0.39%, while gold rose another 1.92% to close at (another) all-time high of $3,960/oz and USDJPY gapped higher following news that Abe-acolyte Sanae Takaichi had won the LDP leadership race in Japan.

The S&P 500 also hit a fresh all-time high to close at 6,740 as chipmaker AMD surged 24% on news that it had struck a multibillion-dollar partnership with OpenAI to build AI data centers with AMD chips. The deal involves OpenAI purchasing 6 gigawatts worth of chips and also receiving warrants for up to 160 million AMD shares if certain milestones for chip deployment are reached. This kind of circularity is becoming a feature of the AI frenzy, with NVIDIA (the market leader in AI chips and AMD’s main competitor) recently announcing a $100bn investment in OpenAI, the proceeds of which would be used to buy – you guessed it – NVIDIA chips.

Given the confluence of events and price action in gold and equities on Monday, perhaps some European investors have been reading Bloomberg and are now adopting the ‘Turkish portfolio’ of 50% gold, 50% equities as their formerly developed markets behave more and more like an emerging market?

AI sceptics (including yours truly) have regularly made comparisons to the ‘irrational exuberance’ that characterized the dotcom boom and subsequent bust. There are many similarities, whether it be the classic ‘new era thinking’ (usually a harbinger of impending doom), the techno-optimism or the eyewatering P/E levels. But there are differences, too. This time around the companies driving the boom do actually have earnings, and perhaps it makes sense to pay very high valuations to get a slice of those earnings if you are afraid that your country has passed the fiscal event horizon and the only way out is a general inflation via debasement of the currency that will obliterate the value of your wages and savings.

The gold price (and arguably stock prices, and arguably house prices in many markets) is sending a signal that such a general inflation is already underway. Some might quibble with that characterization, pointing to EM central bank buying as a the main driver of the gold price rally, but why are those central banks buying gold in the first place? Does the breakdown of the liberal globalized trading system that drove inflation lower and lower for decades presage lower, or higher, inflation in the future? Perhaps the answer to that question explains why the 10y Treasury yield busted through the top of a 40-year trend channel in 2022 and has stayed up there ever since?

Signs of breakdown of the globalized trading system are not hard to find. Fears have been stoked in Australia after China’s state-owned China Mineral Resources Group placed a ban on Dollar-denominated purchases of iron ore from Australia’s BHP. Australian politicians have sought to downplay the action as a “commercial matter” related to pricing, but the real tell is that iron ore shipments denominated in Chinese Yuan continue to flow.

The international market for iron ore is monopsonistic – China is the only buyer of scale because China produces ~54% of global steel output. The market has also, historically, been oligopolistic, with Australia and Brazil being the two suppliers of scale who could feed China’s insatiable demand for the raw material. However, that is changing as Chinese demand moderates and supply sources are diversified by Belt and Road-backed (not a coincidence) Simandou mine in West Africa coming online. Those factors have seen China gain market power over Australia, and it appears that China is now using that market power to pressure Australia to receive payment for what is (by far) it’s most important export in CNY, rather than USD.

This episode is likely to be much larger than a commercial disagreement between a mining company and an importing company (whose state-backed nature should not be forgotten). Xi Jinping was clear at last month’s Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit that he wanted to increase the global role of the CNY, and thereby chip away at the USD’s position as the world reserve currency. That would weaken the US’s ability to use the Dollar as a weapon by applying sanctions, increasing the cost of Dollar-denominated borrowing or cutting other countries out of the SWIFT payments system.

A logical next step could be for Chinese exporters to require Australian importers to pay for manufactured goods in CNY, rather than Dollars. Using China’s market power as a major exporter of goods would create demand for the currency that they are offering in exchange for Australia’s exports, and pry Australia further away from the Dollar. Of course, the United States does not want this to happen and neither does Australia, because it wants Dollars to pay for its imports from every other country and also to pay for the AUKUS submarines that it has committed to buy from the United States.

Is China about to tell the Land Down Under that it is time to choose? We’ve been warning of those sorts of risks in this missive for years now. Economic statecraft (not collaborative free trade policed by the WTO) is the law of the jungle, and it’s eat or be eaten.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 11:45

Ford Shares Hammered On Report Aluminum Plant Fire May Disrupt Ford F-150 Production

A devastating fire at a major aluminum plant in New York in mid-September is set to roil the U.S. auto industry and could even disrupt production of Ford Motor's F-150 pickup trucks, according to a new Wall Street Journal report. 

The Novelis aluminum mill in Oswego, New York, suffered a fire on September 16 that destroyed the building housing the hot mill, rendering the plant inoperable until at least early 2026. This part of the facility is where sheet aluminum used by the auto industry is produced. 

The plant supplies about 40% of all aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers, making it a very critical production node for America's auto industry. WSJ noted that Ford is the mill's largest customer and primarily uses the lightweight industrial metal for its top-selling and most profitable model, the F-150 pickup.

Shares of Ford in New York were hammered on the news by midday, down 7%, marking the worst intraday decline in eight months. 

WSJ cited industry analysts who warned the impacts of the mill's closure are widespread: 

Novelis produces more than 350,000 metric tons of sheet aluminum annually for the automotive industry, according to industry analysts. Around a dozen automakers get aluminum from Novelis, including Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen and Jeep maker Stellantis, according to a regulatory filing.

Kaustubh Chandorkar, an aluminum-industry analyst, said this incident "represents a serious question for the production of F-150 because that's the aluminum that comes out of Oswego." He pointed out that the automaker switched the F-150's exterior skin from steel to aluminum about a decade ago. 

"Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions," a Ford spokesperson stated.

Novelis, owned by India's Hindalco Industries, is preparing to mitigate production losses in the U.S. by sourcing the metal from overseas plants in Europe, Brazil, and South Korea. However, a 50% tariff on imported aluminum complicates things.

This incident could trigger one of the most severe supply shocks for North American automakers in years. All eyes are on Ford's upcoming earnings call for more details on the situation, as well as on its Dearborn Truck Plant and Kansas City Assembly Plant, for any signs of slowing production that would only signal snarled supply chains. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 11:30

Tech, Crypto Dump On Report Exposing ORCL's 'Razor Thin' Margins On AI Chips

Is the 'batshit insane' delusion of AI/ORCL about to break?

As a reminder, a month ago, ORCL stock soared after forecasting extraordinary growth:

 "We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1," said Oracle CEO, Safra Catz.

"This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion. It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build."

Since then it has been up, up, and away... until today...

The Information reports that internal documents show the fast-growing cloud business has had razor-thin gross profit margins in the past year or so, lower than what many equity analysts have estimated.

In the three months that ended in August, Oracle generated around $900 million from rentals of servers powered by Nvidia chips and recorded a gross profit of $125 million—equal to 14 cents for every $1 of sales, the documents show.

That’s lower than the gross margins of many non-tech retail businesses.

As sales from the business nearly tripled in the past year, the gross profit margin from those sales ranged between less than 10% and slightly over 20%, averaging around 16%, the documents show.

In some cases, Oracle is losing considerable sums on rentals of small quantities of both newer and older versions of Nvidia’s chips, the data show.

In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly $100 million from rentals of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, which arrived this year.

That’s partly because there is a period between when Oracle gets its data centers ready for customers and when customers start using and paying for them, the documents show. It’s not clear what causes the gap or how Oracle plans to shorten it.

Stocks (broadly) and crypto were both hammered lower on the report.

Is the world's biggest bubble about to burst? Or is this just another opportunity to BTFD?

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 11:18

German Mayor Stabbed By 'Gang Of Men' In Broad Daylight, Manhunt Underway

A large-scale manhunt is underway after a newly elected mayor of a town in the western-central part of Germany was found critically injured in her apartment on Tuesday.

Iris Stalzer, who a mere weeks ago became the mayor of Herdecke in North Rhine-Westphalia and is a center-left Social Democrat, sustained multiple stab wounds and is reported to be fighting for her life after being airlifted to the hospital.

dpa/picture alliance

Emergency responders discovered her alive but in a life-threatening condition, after one or more attackers tried to kill her, after which she was still conscious enough to crawl inside of her home. German sources report she was "attacked in front of her residence around midday and managed to drag herself inside before collapsing."

Within hours after the attack, there is still no suspect or known motive for the attack, which could be deemed an assassination attempt of an elected official. It's also unclear if there was a political motive.

A 'gang of men' has been mentioned as behind the attack, according to further emerging details of the brutal crime:

Iris Stalzer, 57, a member of the centre-Left Social Democrats party, was found by her son in her apartment with multiple stab wounds. She told him she had been attacked by a group of men, German tabloid Bild reported.

...The attack, which, according to German media, is being investigated as an attempted murder, took place around lunchtime on Tuesday.

Ms Stalzer managed to get back inside her home, where she lives with her adopted son, 15, and her daughter, 17, after being repeatedly stabbed.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed shock and condemned the assault. "We have received news of a heinous act from Herdecke. It must now be quickly clarified. We fear for the life of the designated mayor, Iris Stalzer, and hope for her full recovery," Merz wrote on X. "My thoughts are with her family and loved ones."

Iris Stalzer is in critical condition, via Instagram

SPD parliamentary group leader in Berlin, Matthias Miersch, issued a statement saying he hopes she will "survive the terrible act" - but offered no further details in terms of circumstances or possible motive.

developing...

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 10:20

Legal Battles Rage Over National Guard Deployments To 5 States - What To Know

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Donald Trump has announced his intent to send National Guard troops to major cities across the United States in an effort to combat criminal activity.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

In response, some government officials have alleged that he’s exceeding his legal authority by disregarding certain limits Congress placed on his ability to federalize the National Guard.

The resulting controversy has raised questions about the balance of power between state and federal governments.

Trump has already encountered legal battles over his attempts to federalize state National Guard troops, in part due to a law known as 10 U.S.C. § 12406. In that law, Congress set limits on presidents’ ability to federalize the National Guard—specifically requiring either an invasion, rebellion or danger of rebellion, or an inability by the president to execute the law with regular forces.

This law has already come up in lawsuits from California, Oregon, and Illinois and could resurface depending on how state and local governments respond to future deployments.

Here are some of the key things to know about the battle over National Guard deployments to Portland, Ore., Chicago, Memphis, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C.

Portland

War Secretary Pete Hegseth called 200 members of the Oregon National Guard into service but a judge quickly ruled against it.

According to the Trump administration, federal immigration enforcement within Portland has been targeted with violence in recent weeks. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during an Oct. 6 briefing that an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility had been “under siege.”

“We saw again a guillotine rolled out in front of this federal building,” she said. “And so the President wants to ensure that our federal buildings and our assets are protected, and that’s exactly what he’s trying to do.”

Agitators in Portland could be heard yelling explicit comments and death threats towards federal agents. “The guillotine would be ready for them,” one wearing black-bloc clothing shouted. Some yelled “ICE out of Portland,” while a crowd of pro-ICE supporters were also seen over the weekend—with one holding a sign that read “God Bless ICE.”

The state of Oregon and city of Portland acknowledged activity outside of the ICE facility but denied that it was the kind of protest that justified federal intervention.

U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut agreed when she issued a temporary restraining order on Oct. 4. She recounted incidents such as individuals shining flashlights on drivers and setting up a makeshift guillotine. While these incidents were “inexcusable,” she said, “they are nowhere near the type of incidents that cannot be handled by regular law enforcement forces.”

The administration also violated the 10th Amendment, she said, by unlawfully attempting to federalize the troops. “Because the President is federalizing the Oregon National Guard absent constitutional authority, his actions undermine the sovereign interest of Oregon as protected by the Tenth Amendment,” she said.

The case became more complicated when the administration attempted to deploy members of the California National Guard to Portland—something California Gov. Gavin Newsom called a “breathtaking abuse of power.” That too was blocked by Immergut in a subsequent order on Oct. 5.

An Antifa member kicks back a smoke bomb deployed by federal officers in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 5, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times Chicago

Trump and Republicans have long held up Chicago as an example of a crime-ridden city in the United States. Trump criticized Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker on social media in August for not controlling crime in his state.

“He better straighten it out, FAST, or we’re coming!” Trump wrote at the time.

By Oct. 4, Hegseth had invoked Section 12406 to federalize 300 members of the Illinois National Guard. As in Portland, Hegseth also tried to federalize troops from another state—this time Texas—and bring them to Illinois.

On Oct. 5, two people were charged over their alleged attempt to use their vehicles to strike another from Customs and Border Protection. That followed a lawsuit the administration filed but lost over Illinois’ and Chicago’s sanctuary policies.

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has accused ICE of trying to violate residents’ constitutional rights and signed an order to establish what he called an “ICE free zone” in the city.

Like their counterparts in Oregon, Illinois’ and Chicago’s governments quickly responded to Trump’s recent actions with a lawsuit alleging that the president exceeded his authority under the law.

A judge has yet to rule on the state’s request for a temporary restraining order but the eventual decision will likely touch on similar legal issues as Immergut did. As those cases build, along with the one challenging Trump’s deployment in California, they could prompt involvement from higher courts to decide major legal questions surrounding the president’s authority.

Illinois’ lawsuit argued that Trump can’t use federal troops for civilian law enforcement because of a law known as the Posse Comitatus Act, which prohibits such use. However, the Trump administration argued that it doesn’t prevent the president from using troops to protect federal assets, such as an ICE facility.

Demonstrators march along the Magnificent Mile to protest against federal immigration operations carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Chicago on Sept. 30, 2025. Scott Olson/Getty Images

While protests have occurred at an ICE facility near Chicago, the lawsuit said the protests would be a “flimsy pretext” for sending in troops. “ICE continues to operate the facility to process the hundreds of individuals it has detained in recent weeks,” it said.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson has defended the president’s actions.

In a statement provided to The Epoch Times, Jackson accused Pritzker of inaction. “President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities,” she said.

Memphis

Trump has initiated a multi-pronged approach to tackling crime in Memphis, where violent crime was six times higher than the national average in 2024. For that year, the city ranked first in the nation for per capita violent crime as well as property crime.

Part of Trump’s approach involves sending the National Guard, but it’s unclear if they have started operations in the city.

Trump appeared to have the support of Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who joined the president in the Oval Office last month when Trump signed an order establishing the “Memphis Safe Task Force.”

“We’ve made significant investments to address crime throughout my seven years in office, and thanks to President Trump’s leadership, the Memphis Safe Task Force will ensure we have every resource at our disposal to create significant change,” Lee said.

President Donald Trump holds up a signed presidential memorandum that directs members of the National Guard and federal law enforcement agencies to Memphis in an effort to decrease crime in the city, in the Oval Office on Sept. 15, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images Washington

National Guard troops remain in the nation’s capital nearly two months after Trump initially deployed them over concerns about crime. Leavitt said on Oct. 6 that troops remain in Washington because both the mayor and Trump recognize their presence helps keeps the city safe.

The commanding general, Brig. Gen. Leland D. Blanchard II, said the National Guard will extend its encampment through Nov. 30. The nation, Blanchard said, deserved an effort to keep people safe on the streets of the city.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 10:00

 "Customers Are Hungry For AI ": Dell Upgrades Long-Term Outlook 

Shares of Dell Technologies jumped in premarket trading in New York after executives are expected to unveil a sharply higher long-term financial outlook at the company's Securities Analyst Meeting on Tuesday morning, boosting confidence in AI-driven demand across its data center and PC units. It seems that with each passing day, more AI-related headlines, from Monday's AMD-OpenAI deal to the ongoing AI vendor-financing "circle jerk", continue to propel AI and chip stocks to record highs. 

Chairman and CEO Michael Dell and other members of the executive leadership team will announce a new "long-term financial framework" that forecasts sales to rise at a rate of 7% to 9% annually for the next four years, while earnings per share, excluding some items, will increase 15% or more. The previous forecast, which was made in 2023, had an estimated revenue growth of 3% to 4% and adjusted EPS of 8% or better. 

Ahead of the Securities Analyst Meeting that begins around 0930 ET, COO Jeff Clarke told Bloomberg, "We were all wrong how big we thought the AI market was two years ago, and it's nothing but bigger." This growth is fueled by orders from CoreWeave, Elon Musk's xAI, the U.S. Energy Department, and Abu Dhabi's G42.

Here's more commentary from Dell leadership ahead of the analyst meeting:

• CEO Michael Dell: "Customers are hungry for AI and the compute, storage, and networking we provide to deploy intelligence at scale. The opportunity ahead is massive."

• COO Jeff Clarke: "We're actively shaping the future of AI infrastructure — growing AI into a $20 billion business in two years."

• CFO David Kennedy: "With our increased EPS target, we expect to double EPS again."

Shares of Dell in New York in premarket trading jumped 6% on the press release from the company detailing what executives were planning to unveil at the upcoming analyst meeting. Shares are up 26.5% on the year (as of Monday's close). 

News from Dell adds to the positive news flow that has sent the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor to record highs.

Yesterday's news:

• AMD Soars Most In Nearly A Decade On OpenAI Chip Deal; Semiconductor Index Hits Record High

Endless positive news flow generated by:

• The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

. . . 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 09:40

The post Drugs are Cheap, Patent Monopolies Make Them Expensive: Explaining to Today Explained appeared first on CEPR.

US Airports Experience Delays Due To Staffing Issues Caused By Shutdown: Duffy

Major U.S. airports reported widespread delays Monday as the federal shutdown strained an already short-staffed air-traffic system, prompting fresh warnings from industry and labor leaders that the impasse could ripple across the peak travel season.

A plane docks on the tarmac after an air traffic control outage, bringing flights to a standstill at Newark Liberty International Airport in Newark, N.J., on May 12, 2025. Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said air-traffic control towers were contending with mounting absenteeism since the shutdown began Oct. 1, forcing the Federal Aviation Administration to slow operations at times to maintain safety. While roughly 13,000 controllers are classified as essential and continue working, there is no assurance they will be paid on time, he said. About 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers are also required to report to work; their next paycheck is due Oct. 14.

According to Duffy, he's been receiving reports of varying levels of absenteeism across the country, which rely on air traffic controllers from the Fededral Aviation Administration (FAA). He said that the department was tracking the staff shortages, which are being reported in "one area in one day, another area another day."

By late Monday, flight-tracking service FlightAware counted more than 5,500 delayed flights nationwide. The FAA cited staffing impacts at several major airports, including Newark, Phoenix, Denver, Las Vegas and Hollywood Burbank near Los Angeles. Weather compounded the backups. At Denver International, about 32% of arrivals were delayed; Newark saw 22% delayed, while roughly 15% of flights were late at Burbank, according to FlightAware.

The mounting staffing strain threatens to undo progress the FAA has tried to make after years of shortfalls. Many controllers have been working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks, and the agency remains about 3,500 controllers shy of its target staffing levels. The FAA has been surging hiring through its academy in Oklahoma City and training centers nationwide - efforts that rely on support personnel who, Mr. Duffy warned, are at risk of being laid off during the shutdown.

“I don’t want them driving Uber. I don’t want them finding a second job to pay the bills,” the secretary said. “I want them to get paid for the work that they’re doing today, keeping our planes in the air and our skies safe.” He also pressed congressional leaders to reopen the government, criticizing the stalemate on social media.

Labor leaders echoed the call. “We do not have the luxury of time,” said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, speaking at Newark Liberty International Airport. “This work includes accelerating the hiring of controllers and modernizing our air-traffic control system. Both initiatives are long overdue and require our immediate and full attention…. End the shutdown.”

Airlines warned of broader repercussions if the funding lapse continues. Airlines for America, which represents United, Delta, American and Southwest, said the system may need to slow down during a prolonged shutdown, eroding efficiency and inconveniencing travelers. In 2019, a 35-day shutdown led to increased absences among controllers and TSA officers and forced the FAA to slow traffic in the New York area—pressure that helped end that impasse. Then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said at the time the shutdown was “pushing our airspace to the breaking point.”

The latest shutdown also threatens smaller communities that depend on federal subsidies to maintain service. Mr. Duffy said funding for the Essential Air Service program, which helps airlines serve rural and remote towns, runs out Oct. 12. “There’s many small communities across the country that will now no longer have the resources to make sure they have air service in their community,” he said, noting that Alaska would be among the states affected.

For now, the FAA says U.S. airspace remains safe, and officials are managing traffic flows to match available staffing. But with absenteeism rising and a large contingent of essential workers facing uncertainty over paychecks, the margin for operational flexibility is narrowing. As Mr. Duffy put it: “You’ll see more delays” - and possibly cancellations - “if this continues.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 09:25

'Best Is Yet To Come': NYSE Parent Invests $2 Billion In Polymarket At $9 Billion Valuation

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has invested $2 billion in cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket.

According to a Tuesday Polymarket X post, the ICE invested $2 billion in the prediction market. The deal values Polymarket at a $9 billion post-money valuation.

As CoinTelegraph reports, ICE’s NYSE is the world’s largest stock exchange by market capitalization, exceeding $25 trillion as of July 2024. Its interest is the latest move that fuses the United States’ traditional financial landscape with the cryptocurrency industry.

Polymarket is a crypto-powered prediction market where people buy and sell “shares” in real-world event outcomes (elections, sports, crypto prices), with market prices reflecting the crowd’s implied probabilities. Trades typically settle in stablecoins, and markets are resolved against predefined, verifiable sources, with access for US users restricted due to regulatory reasons.

Polymarket’s homepage. Source: Polymarket

CEO Shayne Coplan wrote on X:  Markets on everything.

We’re proud to announce that $ICE, the owner of @NYSE and the largest exchange company in the world, is making a strategic investment of $2 billion into Polymarket, valuing us at $9 billion post-money.

Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi. ICE is the one remaining founder-led exchange company, and Jeff is all-in on utilizing his assets, including NYSE, to usher in a new financial era of tokenization. We’re humbled to be working together on this endeavor. ICE will also begin distributing Polymarket data to thousands of financial institutions around the world. There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution.

The past two years have been surreal. Going from a write off to creating a category, watching our vision become a reality. The Polymarket origin story is funny because it's a rare case of the dream being identical to how things played out. If I learned one thing, it’s that bold ideas are everywhere, hidden in plain sight. It just takes someone crazy enough to spend their life willing it into existence. That’s entrepreneurship: willing things into existence.

I remember reading Robin Hanson’s literature on prediction markets and thinking - man, this is too good of an idea to just exist in whitepapers. There were a million reasons why it shouldn’t work, countless arguments of why not to do it, and the odds were against us, but we had to try.

At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it. But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that. After all, nothing is more valuable than the truth. It’s still a work in progress, but we’re honored to have made the impact we have thus far.

I’d also like to give a special thank you to all of our users, builders, and community members who have been with us since 2020. Your support will not be forgotten.

Last but not least, I am deeply grateful for all of the support and hard work of my brilliant team. I’m getting to live my wildest dreams, seemingly against all odds, and I don’t take it for granted.

The best is yet to come…

Que Sera Sera

Polymarket prepares US relaunch

The news also follows recent reports that Polymarket is reportedly preparing a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion. In early September, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a no-action letter to QCX granting Polymarket relief from certain federal reporting and record-keeping requirements.

That stance marks a notable shift from prior years. In mid-November 2024, the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) went as far as to raid the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, seizing his phone and electronics. The CFTC also issued a cease-and-desist order against Polymarket in early 2022.

This followed Polymarket’s July acquisition of the US-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million in preparation for its re-entry into the US market. In recent times, the prediction market has undergone significant leadership changes.

In late August, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr., the son of US President Donald Trump, to its advisory board after receiving a strategic investment from self-described politically aligned vehicle 1789 Capital. The financial details are unclear, but according to some estimates, the investment was worth “double-digit millions of dollars."

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 08:50

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).

In September, sales in these early reporting markets were up 7.0% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

The post Trump Crazy: There Is No Tariff Shelf, the Treasury Knows Exactly Where Its Taxes Come From appeared first on CEPR.

"For God's Sake, Stop The Rhetoric!": Border Czar Tom Homan Pleads With Anti-ICE Dems

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

Border Czar Tom Homan said Thursday that ICE will not be intimidated by the left’s anti-ICE attacks and will continue its mission of deporting criminal illegal aliens. “They won’t stop the men and women of ICE,” he told Fox News host Harris Faulkner.

According to the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Immigration and Customs has seen a 1000 percent increase in violence against agents as they carry out their operations.

In the latest episode on Wednesday,  29-year-old Joshua Jahn managed to kill an illegal alien detainee and wound two others before shooting himself in the head. Police found unspent bullet casings with the words “anti-ICE” written onto them at the scene. While ICE was clearly the target, no agents were harmed in the targeted attack.

Homan said there are about 600,000 illegal aliens with criminal histories walking the streets, mostly because of sanctuary cities. He explained that because authorities in sanctuary jurisdictions do not cooperate with ICE, agents are forced to go into neighborhoods to find criminal illegals, endangering themselves, and often causing nonviolent illegal aliens to get swept up with them.

“In sanctuary cities, they force us to go into communities to find the bad guy and if we find them with others, they’re coming too,” the Border Czar explained. “We’re not going to turn our back, we’re not going to turn out back on the law Congress enacted,” he continued. “If you want less collateral arrests, then let us into the damn jail where it’s safe for the agent, it’s safe for the alien and it’s safe for the community. But they won’t do it,” he lamented.

“Throughout my career, I’ve buried Border Patrol, I’ve buried ICE agents. I’ve handled too many folded flags for spouses and children of those who died in the line of duty! For God’s sake, stop the rhetoric!” he pleaded. “These men and women are patriots. They’re moms and dads too. And I want every one of them to go home to their families each night.”

Rather than moderating their tone, however, leading Democrats have doubled down on their inflammatory rhetoric, even as attacks on federal law enforcement officers have increased. Fox News provided just a sampling of the invective being spewed by Dems toward ICE in recent days:

In a post on X several hours after the shooting, Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., accused ICE agents of unleashing “dangerous and reckless immigration operations” on the public.

“I’ve joined the Illinois delegation in demanding answers about DHS’s dangerous and reckless operations in our state,” wrote Budzinski. “We refuse to stand by while masked agents trample on due process, indiscriminately arrest our neighbors, and threaten immigrant communities.”

In a since-deleted post, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., also criticized ICE agents after the attack, accusing them of “picking up moms as they drop off their kids to daycare or people going to work.”

Just days before the attack, Rep. Robin Kelly, D-Ill., who is also a Democratic senatorial candidate, accused ICE of using “Gestapo tactics” against the American people, saying their actions “are a betrayal of the values we swear to uphold.”

Leading Democrats have also taken a similar tone against ICE agents, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who accused Trump border czar Tom Homan of working to “unleash masked ICE agents on the American people.”

Last week, former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., accused ICE of intentionally stoking fear and tearing communities apart.

“ICE is targeting community members with no criminal record,” Warren wrote on X. “Agents are sitting outside of churches and schools. Driving unmarked vans and breaking car windows. These violent ICE arrests don’t make us safer — they intentionally stoke fear and tear communities apart.”

Speaking on the Senate floor last week, Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., accused federal officials of targeting anyone with “brown skin and a Hispanic surname.”

“ICE is arresting first and asking questions later,” Durbin said. “I’ve seen the devastating impacts of these policies in my state of Illinois. People are fearful of masked men in unmarked vans who can grab them at any time because of how they look or their voice, accent.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom described the Trump administration’s deportation effort as “authoritarian” during an appearance on Stephen Colbert’s late night show Tuesday.

“That’s happening in the United States of America, Newsom fumed. “Masked men jumping out of unmarked cars, people disappearing, no due process, no oversight, zero accountability!”

The Border Czar said he prays for the safety of his agents, as well as “the safety of those we’re looking for.”

As for the anti-ICE protesters, Homan said they don’t even know what they’re protesting.

“If you ask them why they’re protesting, they’re going to say things they heard in the fake media,” he explained.  “If the media would tell the truth about what ICE is actually doing, maybe so many people wouldn’t get inflamed!”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 06:30

China's Soybean Boycott - Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting

At the end of last week, new details emerged via a Wall Street Journal report outlining the Trump administration's potential farm bailout, estimated to be in the range of $10 billion to $14 billion, aimed at cushioning farmers amid China's pivot in agricultural purchases to Brazil. Trump blasted China last week, saying Beijing was "hurting" American farmers during the ongoing trade negotiations, and noted that soybeans would be a major topic in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. 

Soybeans and agricultural purchases have yet again become a central battleground in US-China trade talks. 

To make sense of it all, Bloomberg provided readers with a Q&A breakdown about the soybean debate ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which begins in late October:

Why is China refusing to buy U.S. soybeans?

China hasn't purchased any soybeans from the current U.S. harvest. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other administration officials say Beijing is using soybeans as leverage in broader trade negotiations. Earlier this year, the two countries came to a temporary truce that lowered tariffs and eased export controls, but that agreement expires in November. Trump has accused China of holding off "for negotiating reasons only." This season, Beijing has instead turned to South America. Brazil and Argentina have been supplying soybeans for China's animal feed producers and oil extraction "crushers," filling a need usually met by the U.S.

How is this impacting U.S. soybean farmers?

The fallout for farmers has been significant. In 2024, the U.S. made up about one-fifth of China's soybean imports, worth more than $12 billion, and those sales represented more than half of the value of all U.S. soybean exports. Without that market, growers are left with fewer buyers and weaker prices. Across the U.S. Midwest, farmers are watching storage bins fill up as harvests roll in. Researchers at Purdue University warn that higher costs for fertilizer, seed, and chemicals — combined with falling soybean prices — are squeezing profits. Many growers are choosing to store crops rather than sell at steep losses. That pain ripples across the industry. Grain elevators, processors, and the railroads that move soybeans across the country are all affected by the slowdown.

Does Washington have leverage to pressure Beijing into changing its policy?

The Trump administration has suggested it does. Bessent predicted a "pretty big breakthrough" from the next round of talks. Trump has promised to put soybeans at the top of his agenda when he meets Xi. However, Republican senators left a meeting on Sept. 30 with the U.S. ambassador to China discouraged, saying Beijing has little intention of resuming purchases anytime soon. Trump has said his administration will use funds collected from tariffs to provide farmer relief. On Sept. 24, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins promised a new aid package "in the next couple of weeks," though the federal shutdown complicates the picture.

Are there risks for China?

Yes, but they're limited in the short run. China's massive animal agriculture industry needs soybeans to produce animal feed. But Chinese crushers and farmers have already built up higher-than-usual inventories, and government reserves provide a further cushion. That gives Beijing room to wait until early 2026 before it feels pressure to buy more from abroad. China's reliance on Brazil and Argentina brings long-term risks, however. With fewer suppliers, a future weather shock could prove costly, even as Beijing's tilt toward Brazilian beans is boosting output from the world's top grower.

What are soybeans used for?

Soybeans are essential to China's food system. The bulk of imports are crushed into meal for animal feed for pigs, which supply most of the country's meat, and other livestock. Soy oil is also widely used for cooking and food products. Soybeans are also processed into biofuels and industrial products.

Has China boycotted U.S. soybeans before?

Yes. During Trump's first term, Beijing slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans as part of the 2018–2019 trade war. That pressure helped push the Trump administration to agree to the so-called Phase One deal. Under that agreement, China pledged to buy tens of billions of dollars' worth of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans, in exchange for tariff relief. Trump later blamed his successor, Joe Biden, for not adequately enforcing the agreement. The current standoff looks similar. Once again, China is using soybeans as leverage to counter U.S. tariffs and restrictions.

Related:

• Trump Plans Up To $14 Billion Farm Bailout Amid China Pivot To Brazil, WSJ Says

• Trump To Bail Out Farmers With Tariff Money, Will Investigate Seed & Fertilizer Companies Over Jacked Prices

• China Pivots To Brazil, Squeezing U.S. Farmers As Trump Plans Relief Fund

• Trump, Bessent Hit Back At China's Ag Purchase Pivot, Promise Farm Support Next Week

Key chart to understand China's pivot:

Source: Financial Times 

. . .

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 05:45

Goaded By Tariffs, European Pharmaceutical Industry Pivots To The US

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. tariff policy and its unmatched pharmaceutical market are pulling European drugmakers to invest more heavily, from new manufacturing plants to U.S. stock listings and discount pricing deals.

Since early 2025, European drugmakers have stepped up their U.S. presence. In the most recent move, the United Kingdom’s giant AstraZeneca announced on Sept. 29 a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange, just months after pledging $50 billion of U.S. investment by 2030.

The UK-headquartered Indivior dropped its London listing in July to trade solely on Nasdaq, while Swiss giants Roche and Novartis unveiled U.S. expansion plans in April worth $23 billion and $50 billion, respectively. France’s Sanofi has likewise committed at least $20 billion in American projects through 2030.

The moves reflect both the pull of the U.S. market, which accounted for more than half of global prescription medicine sales in 2024, and the push of political signals from Washington.

On Sept. 25, President Donald Trump, after months of warning about pharmaceutical tariffs, announced a 100 percent levy on imports of branded and patented medicines from Oct. 1 unless manufacturers build plants in the United States.

“Pharmaceutical companies are very cognizant of what the White House is saying, and they’re acting accordingly,” Russ Mould, investment director at British investment platform AJ Bell, told The Epoch Times.

He said that the United States, as the world’s largest economy and the biggest pharmaceutical market, was not a place where any chief executive wanted to risk being put at a competitive disadvantage.

US Market Dwarfs Its Peers

According to data from the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA), North America represented 54.8 percent of global prescription sales in 2024, compared with 22.7 percent for Europe.

Between 2019 and 2023, two-thirds of new drug launches were made first in the United States, compared with just 16 percent across Europe’s top five markets.

That dominance has left non-U.S. drugmakers highly exposed to tariff risk. The European Union exported nearly €120 billion ($127 billion) worth of medicines to the United States in 2024, making America its largest pharmaceutical trading partner, according to the European Commission.

The United Kingdom alone shipped £7 billion ($8.5 billion) in pharmaceutical products across the Atlantic in the year to March 2025, UK government data show.

Industry analysts say the U.S. tariff policy, combined with Trump’s push for lower U.S. drug prices, are accelerating strategic shifts.

“It does look as though it is the direction of travel,” said Susannah Streeter, money and markets analyst at UK consultancy Consultable told The Epoch Times. “If companies are planning to build a factory in the United States, they will be exempt from extra tariffs. So this is concentrating minds among pharma giants about where to locate future manufacturing facilities.”

Streeter said the trend of companies shifting stock exchange listings from Europe to the United States depends largely on where their core business is located. In AstraZeneca’s case, U.S. revenues in the first quarter of 2025 made up roughly 42 percent of regional sales.

Smaller firms, Streeter said, are less likely to make such a move due to the capital required and the need for an established U.S. customer base.

“It’s quite a big undertaking. You certainly require a lot of capital to start moving entire operations, uprooting them and moving across the United States. Obviously you would need to make sure that you have a strong customer base there … So the bigger companies, it’s probably more likely that you’d see movement more quickly.”

For investors, she said the rationale behind these shifts is to avoid higher duties that could raise the cost of drugs in the United States.

“The hope is that they will avoid increased duties, which would make the drugs more expensive … so that they can ensure that their drugs get the widest possible customer base,” Streeter said.

The Push From Europe and the UK

Britain spends far less on medicines overall, just 9 percent of its healthcare budget, compared with 15–17 percent in France, Germany, and Italy, data from the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) show. Streeter said this helps explain “why you see moves away from the UK first.”

In the United Kingdom, drug companies have to hand back a large share of sales under government rebate schemes.

In 2025, firms in the main voluntary scheme will return 22.9 percent of revenues on eligible sales of newer medicines to the National Health Service, while those in the statutory scheme will pay 31.3 percent from July, averaging 23.4 percent across the year.

Rates are set to climb further to 24.3 percent in 2026 and 26 percent in 2027. By comparison, clawbacks are far lower in other European countries—about 7 percent in Germany, 9 percent in Ireland, and 5–12 percent in France, according to the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry.

The pressure is not limited to Britain. The European Union is also rewriting its drug rules, which determine how long companies can sell a new medicine without competition from generics. In June 2025, EU governments backed a plan to give firms at least eight years of protection, plus up to two extra years in some cases.

US Price Pressures and the Pfizer Deal

While Washington is also pressing for lower drug prices, the U.S. still offers greater rewards than Europe thanks to its size, deeper stock market liquidity, and new drug launch priority.

Following the Sept. 30 deal in which Pfizer agreed to cut Medicaid prices to match those in other developed nations, Swiss lobby Scienceindustries said other European firms may follow with similar “mini-deals.” Director General Stephan Mumenthaler told Reuters he expected announcements “one by one in the coming days and weeks.”

Both AstraZeneca and Sanofi also unveiled measures on Sept. 26 aimed at expanding affordability.

For some companies, the U.S. market also looks more attractive because of its financial depth.

“The London Stock Exchange has been suffering from lower levels of liquidity, and that has been a concern, certainly compared to the United States, where there’s been a huge amount of trading activity,” said Streeter. “There are—there are concerns about that, certainly in London.”

Tariff Uncertainty and Investment Outlook

Uncertainty remains around how U.S. tariffs will be applied, particularly for EU countries. Under a trade deal reached with the United States in July, tariffs on pharmaceuticals were capped at 15 percent.

The Trump administration formally confirmed the exemptions on Sept. 25. The following day, Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris said Dublin would study the impact of the broader tariff announcements, but welcomed the exemptions for EU products under the agreement.

In parallel, the United States and the United Kingdom agreed under a recent trade deal to work on giving UK-made medicines and ingredients better trade terms, depending on the outcome of a U.S. review of whether certain imports threaten national security.

“I still think that there is a question mark surrounding how onerous the tariffs would actually be, particularly for European Union-based drugs companies,” Streeter said.

Meanwhile, U.S.-based financial services and investment research firm Morningstar said in a Sept. 25 report that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals would likely have only a limited long-term effect on major drugmakers.

The firm estimated that a 15 percent tariff would reduce earnings by about 9 percent for U.S. companies and 6 percent for European ones, but said the impact would likely be eased by steps such as outsourcing production and securing multiple suppliers for key ingredients.

Analysts noted that European groups such as AstraZeneca and Novartis face higher upfront costs to expand in the United States, but could benefit from lower trade risks over time.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 05:00

Germany's "Debt Boom": Merz's €500 Billion Gamble Is Keynesian Madness On Steroids

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe 

In Berlin’s government circles, anticipation is rising: the massive debt program is ready for launch. Soon, the 500-billion-euro credit package—disguised as a “special fund”—will hit the economy like a tidal wave, supposedly to free the country from its chronic recession.

Looking back, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s term in office will likely be remembered for one thing above all: his gigantic debt orgy. Half a trillion euros in new borrowing—added on top of the already planned annual deficit of 3.3% of GDP—are supposed to reignite the faltering economic engine over the next decade.

Maastricht Is History

Year after year, the debt mountain, already 65% of GDP, will grow by another 1.15% in new debt. The annual net borrowing thus climbs to 4.6%—a far cry from the once “sacred” Maastricht thresholds. Those days are long gone. Berlin hopes for a Keynesian miracle, ignoring the fact that such policies always deepen structural problems rather than solving them.

According to Handelsblatt, citing insider sources, Economics Minister Katharina Reiche (CDU) will present the new growth figures on Wednesday.

Her ministry’s outlook aligns closely with the joint forecast of Germany’s leading economic institutes: both the DIW and RWI now expect GDP growth of 1.3% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027.

All of them are counting on the debt stimulus—more is better, and qualitative questions or the limits of economic planning have long since disappeared from view. The belief that the economy can be centrally managed is now dogma in Berlin. The free market is treated as an adversary.

Merz’s “Turning Point”

Chancellor Merz recently declared a “turnaround” in investment flows. After years of massive capital flight, he now claims that money is returning to Germany. He seems to believe that the additional €50 billion in new loans—mostly directed into climate projects, infrastructure, and military expansion—will trigger a private investment boom. Through state guarantees, private capital is to be “mobilized.”

It’s a wager that debt-driven stimulus will revive the economy. In reality, it’s Habeck-style logic—industrial decay and bankruptcies are baked into the cake.

Label Fraud and Voodoo Economics

This “growth” is a statistical illusion. It doesn’t reflect market-driven investment or real demand—it’s a debt-fueled mirage, a bonfire lit by the printing press.

The consequences will be devastating: taxpayers will foot the bill through higher taxes or inflation once the new credit mass meets a stagnant economy and limited supply, pushing prices up.

True prosperity and growth must be measured differently. In a free market, goods and services arise from genuine demand. The state, by contrast, becomes a consumption factor that destroys purchasing power through bureaucracy.

Capital Markets Under Strain

The same applies to investment. Ideologically driven projects like the “green transformation” are, in truth, capital destruction programs. They drain scarce resources from the private sector, drive up financing costs, and tighten the labor market by tying up workers in unproductive bureaucracies.

For context: the state’s share of GDP currently stands at about 50%.

With a planned new debt ratio of 4.7% next year and projected GDP growth of only 1.3%, the private sector would need to shrink by roughly 3.4% in real terms to make the math work.

In other words: Germany is already deep in a debt spiral where each additional euro of public borrowing yields diminishing growth. The government plans to raise spending another 4–5% next year—piling more weight onto the private economy’s back. As the state expands, the productive backbone contracts. Berlin calls it “progress.”

The “New Dawn” of the Merz Government

The administration is now preparing to inject its vast debt package into the parched channels of the green subsidy industry and the emerging war economy. On German Unity Day, Merz wrapped this in lofty rhetoric—speaking of renewal, vigor, and optimism, urging citizens not to be paralyzed by fear.

But behind this staged optimism lies nothing of substance. Not a word about who will ultimately pay the bill for this credit-fueled firework—through taxes, inflation, and the erosion of savings. This isn’t a “new dawn.” It’s a demolition party.

While Berlin and Brussels double down on propping up their state-fed pseudo-industries, others are moving in the opposite direction. In the U.S., fiscal burdens for citizens and businesses are falling. In Florida, lawmakers are even discussing abolishing property tax altogether.

Washington is deregulating the energy sector, freeing it from the CO₂ straitjacket—while in Germany, every effort to restore market order gets buried under green dogma.

March Into Eco-Socialism

Quite the opposite: Berlin is already paving the way to refinance its debt binge through higher inheritance taxes and the abolition of the spousal tax break. Merz is working overtime to expand an already overextended state sector—now consuming more than half of the economy—while crowding out private enterprise step by step.

His pledge to cut bureaucratic costs by €16 billion and eliminate 8,000 public jobs belongs in the realm of political fairy tales. The distribution of the new debt torrent alone will require thousands of new administrators.

Germany is on a fatal path—into a new form of eco-socialism where the state is once again the center of the universe and the market is reduced to a mere auxiliary engine to keep the fragile edifice afloat for a little while longer.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 03:30

AppLovin Craters 15% After Bloomberg Reports SEC Investigating Company Over Its Data Collection Practices

Shares of controversial short seller target AppLovin were leveled in late trading Monday, falling more than 15% one point after it was reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the company over its data-collection practices, according to a Bloomberg exclusive.

Bloomberg writes that the probe, handled by SEC officials focused on cyber and emerging technologies, centers on claims the company broke platform partners’ service agreements to deliver more targeted ads. The review stems from a whistleblower complaint filed earlier this year and several short-seller reports, though the SEC hasn’t accused AppLovin or its executives of wrongdoing.

AppLovin said it “regularly engage[s] with regulators and if we get inquiries we address them in the ordinary course. Material developments, if any, would be disclosed through the appropriate public channels.” The SEC declined to comment, citing its limited press response during the government shutdown.

The plunge comes despite the company nearly doubling its market value this year to more than $230 billion and being added to the S&P 500 Index in September, fueled by demand for AI-driven ad tools.

Short sellers, including Fuzzy Panda and Muddy Waters, have alleged AppLovin used unauthorized “fingerprinting” to track users across apps and sites, in violation of Apple’s rules and until recently, Google’s policies. Muddy Waters called it "another scammy ad tech company" in their slide deck on the company. 

CEO Adam Foroughi dismissed the reports as “littered with inaccuracies” and denied creating “alternative accurate and persistent identifiers, typically called device fingerprints.”

In March, AppLovin hired attorney Alex Spiro of Quinn Emanuel to run an “independent review and investigation into recent short report activity.” The company said the work is ongoing and aimed at uncovering the origins of “clearly false reports.”

Spiro, a partner at Quinn Emanuel, has represented high-profile clients including companies like Tesla as well as figures such as Elon Musk, Robert Kraft, Jay-Z, Alec Baldwin, Megan Thee Stallion, Naomi Osaka, Mick Jagger, Charles Oakley, and New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

AppLovin’s partners include Meta, Amazon, and Google, though it isn’t clear which relationships are under review. There’s no indication the SEC is examining the conduct of those partners.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 02:45

Spanish Cops Uncover Fraud Network Of Fake Residencies & Sham Marriages Used By Illegals

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The Spanish National Police has announced the arrest of 12 people in Vic for orchestrating fraudulent partnerships between Spaniards and illegal immigrants, part of a growing Europe-wide problem involving forged documents, sham marriages, and black markets for residency permits.

According to police, the network operating from the Catalonian town specialized in manufacturing fake family links to secure residence permits reserved for relatives of EU citizens.

As reported by 20 Minutos, the investigation began in November 2024, when authorities noticed a cluster of suspicious applications. In each case, the foreign applicant was living illegally in Spain and claimed to be in a stable partnership with a Spanish citizen. All applicants listed the same address on Rambla del Passeig, which investigators discovered was in fact a café.

The fraud unraveled when police found that the couples had not registered with the official Registry of Stable Partnerships and instead submitted forged documents to immigration officials. Among the arrested is the alleged mastermind who arranged the sham marriages, provided the fake paperwork, and advised clients on how to present their applications.

At least five foreigners managed to obtain legal residency before the scheme was uncovered, halting their deportations and granting them full EU benefits. In total, 14 applications were examined, with authorities seizing forged registration forms, partnership certificates, and payroll slips.

The case follows a separate investigation in northern Spain back in February, where police dismantled a ring arranging marriages of convenience between Spanish women and foreign men seeking legal residency. A lawyer from Miranda de Ebro, a male recruiter, and a female intermediary were arrested after police uncovered 13 planned sham marriages. Migrants allegedly paid up to €10,000 each to be paired with a Spanish partner, while women were offered between €3,000 and €4,000 to go through with the marriage.

Spanish authorities noted that such networks are lucrative for those involved. In 2020, another criminal group was disbanded for arranging over 50 sham marriages for Indian and Pakistani migrants, charging €20,000 each. That network had members operating across Barcelona, Valencia, and Sitges.

The Spanish operations are far from isolated. Earlier this year in France, prosecutors charged a civil servant from the foreigners’ admission service in Nancy with corruption and fraud for helping irregular migrants stay in the country. The official allegedly accepted bribes of €25,000 per case, altering documents to approve residence applications. Investigators traced at least 15 fraudulent files to her office, sparking a judicial probe into her network of accomplices and beneficiaries.

Similarly, last month in Germany, an investigation by German broadcasters NTV and RTL, along with Stern magazine, revealed a booming black market on TikTok for forged integration and language certificates — a prerequisite for permanent residency or citizenship in Germany.

Under German law, foreign nationals must demonstrate language proficiency and integration by passing tests administered by accredited providers such as Telc or adult education centers. Yet on TikTok, vendors openly advertise fake certificates with messages like “A1, A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, no school, no exam.” Videos in Arabic, Turkish, and Albanian promise fast-track paperwork, with prices ranging from €750 for basic certificates to €2,700 for higher-level documentation. Family “discounts” were even offered for multiple applicants.

Investigators also found forged driver’s licenses and industry qualification certificates circulating on the platform. Posts routinely attracted hundreds of thousands of views, with users openly commenting with requests for prices and availability.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/07/2025 - 02:00

The Parents of Charlie Kirk's Prodigal Assassin

Authored by David DesRosiers, President, RealClearFoundation,

Charlie Kirk’s murderer came from somewhere. We all do.

Since the “In the beginning …” times, our species has wrestled with the fundamental logic – and perceived unfairness – of holding parents responsible for the sins of their children. Or the other way around. In the Old Testament book of Ezekiel, the prophet makes this explicit:

The person who sins will die. A son will not suffer the punishment for the father’s guilt, nor will a father suffer the punishment for the son’s guilt; the righteousness of the righteous will be upon himself, and the wickedness of the wicked will be upon himself.

Yet we mortals struggle with this idea. It’s a matter of self-preservation. The unifying idea is that we must bear some responsibility for the behavior of our own kids. Our kids are reflections of us because we put our stamp on them. Functional societies have a justifiable fear of the ripple effects of other people’s bad parenting.

Healthy families are civilization’s frontline schoolhouse of needed humans – producers of good men and women, and citizens. Bad parents can easily replicate themselves, and often do. It is a rare and beautiful testament to the enduring nature of the good to see exceptions to the rule.

The inverse happens, too. I have met a many a good parent of a bad kid – a bad seed who grows up to be a bad adult. Or a good kid who leaves the home for school, falls in with the wrong crowd, and rejects root and branch the ways of his family.

Modern parents know at some point we must give our offspring over to a hard and secular world outside the home threshold, a world that undermines good parenting at every turn. A school system that inverts the established, time-tested ways for purposes of political indoctrination. A culture that has lost any sense of moral and natural limits. An algorithmic media that is set on setting people into warring tribes with desensitized, brutish ways.

Charlie Kirk’s assassin was born and raised in southwestern Utah. Mormon territory. He was the son of a mother and father who raised kids in the Mormon way, which creates exemplary fruits that are missionaries to the world. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints – its formal name – instills family loyalty, stewardship, tolerance, sobriety, hard work, and sharing. They tithe. They contribute. They are impressive people.

Even Matt Stone and Trey Parker, with their “Dumb the Dumb, Dumb” view of the Mormon religion (which is a cutout for all organized religion), recognized that Mormons have strong families and raise very good kids. The whole “Book of Mormon” craze began with a 2003 “South Park” episode featuring an impressive Mormon high school kid. His ending soliloquy put it best:

“Look, maybe us Mormons do believe in crazy stories that make absolutely no sense, and maybe Joseph Smith did make it all up, but I have a great life, and a great family, and I have the Book of Mormon to thank for that,” he says. “The truth is, I don’t care if Joseph Smith made it all up, because what the church teaches now is loving your family, being nice and helping people.” 

I don’t know about you, but I admire the old-school way the accused killer’s father brought his son – his own flesh and blood – to face justice.

The family saw the fruit of their loins on video surveillance in a national all-points bulletin. The family reached out to their own. Father and grandfather. They talked him into coming home. Once he was home, they convinced him to turn himself in for the crime – and to stanch the dishonor that he had done to his family’s name.

Would Luigi Mangione’s wealthy and well-connected Maryland family have done the same if they recognized his distinctive eyebrows? “Come home, son,” followed by, “You must turn yourself in to the authorities and be held accountable.” There’s no evidence they did anything of the kind. If they had, would Luigi have complied? I doubt it.

Fathers and mothers of America: Do you think you and yours could do similarly? To ask that question is not to easily answer it.

This Utah family has a quiet dignity to it. Their creed was not an assassin’s creed. Their kid is certainly a lost young man. He took a path outside of his family’s way, but his family retained a line of communication and influence over their prodigal son. They lost their son to dark, demonic forces, but appealed to the light remaining in him, and brought him home and to justice.

What this family confronted deserves to be noticed, praised, and modeled. Our country was given clarity in real time. We very rarely get that. This young man did not come in lawyered up and with his phone locked and encrypted.

A reeling nation did not have to suffer the indignity of mushroom management, where “We the People” are kept in the legalese dark and fed legalese doggerel.

Every family that has successfully raised a good kid to adulthood knows how hard it is in our present educational, cultural, and social media bathhouses.

A family can hold a line, and a kid can transgress it. Once upon a time the family had educational and cultural support systems that checked transgression and bolstered parents and kids. Kids heard a shared common and civilized creed in and outside the house. That cord has been cut for a while, and our families and nation are suffering at scale because of it.

This family summoned their prodigal son home. While we rightfully think of their son as moral monster, they still had familial claim and power over him. And with it, they brought him home and then to justice.

This family gave another grieving family and a nation the closure it needed. We owe them our thanks and compassion for displaying moral courage when it counted. The sins of their son are not theirs. They ought to be seen by the nation as neighbors in good standing. They need and deserve our parental prayers.

Under present grooming circumstances, there but for the grace of God go all of us.

David DesRosiers is the publisher of RealClearMedia and president of the RealClear Media Fund, which supports the cause of free speech through its annual Samizdat Prize, and its reporting, and the viewpoint diversity method.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 23:40