'An Epic Madness Burns In The Minds of Californians...'

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

The California Death Trip

“History records no pity for parties that choose purity over competence, vengeance over vision, pathology over pragmatism. The long night is not coming. It is here. . . . ”

- LHGrey on X

The Pacific Palisades fire ignited on January 7, 2025, in the very last days of the “Joe Biden” fake presidency.

6,837 total buildings destroyed plus about 1,000 damaged.

The Altadena fire across town in Eaton Canyon was arguably worse: 9,418 buildings destroyed.

A Year After the LA Fires

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass was in Ghana at the time to attend the inauguration of president John Dramani Mahama, part of a small U.S. presidential delegation sent by the “Biden” administration.

Deputy Mayor for Public Safety, Brian Williams, overseer of the Police and Fire Departments, was on administrative leave at the time due to an alleged bomb threat against City Hall that he reportedly made in September / October 2024. The FBI raided his house that December, and in 2025 he copped a plea deal (guilty) to making threats involving fire and explosives. So, he was out of action during the fires.

There you have the rectified essence of how the Democratic Party operates in America’s biggest state.

Is it not astonishing that Karen Bass is running for reelection? How could she possibly be forgiven?

A large number of people employed in the movie business got burned out of their homes in the fires, and then city and state regulatory nonsense prevented them from rebuilding — on top of insurance company hocus-pocus that left families financially wrecked.

Is it a surprise that the city’s flagship industry is dying now (film production down 32-percent on a five-year average)?

What is LA without Hollywood?

And yet the show-biz celebs are still coming out to pimp for Democratic Party politicians. This is the kind of thing that forces you to conclude that an epic madness burns as hotly through the minds of Californians as the fires that ripped through the canyons in 2025. I know from personal experience as a college theater major that actors can be exceptionally stupid, but that can’t wholly account for what we’re seeing.

Wednesday’s primary debates had these villains on florid display. Because LA’s ranked-choice mayoral primary race styles itself “non-partisan,” candidate Spencer Pratt (a registered Republican) was on-hand for the debate. When the subject of LA’s cataclysmic homelessness came up, drug addicts living (if you can call it that) in wretched, filthy encampments all over the public space of the city, Mayor Bass bragged that she’d significantly reduced the problem, which is obviously and mendaciously untrue. LA City Council member Nithya Raman, who labels herself “progressive,” bragged on putting the homeless into shelters (i.e., motel rooms at $100-K per person per year.)

Spencer Pratt attempted to inject a little reality into the discussion about putting the homeless into homes: “No matter how many beds you give these people, they are on super meth, they are on fentanyl. The DEA [Drug Enforcement Agency] statistic says 93-percent of this is a drug addiction problem. These people do not want a bed — they want fentanyl or super meth.”

Pratt is currently running third in the polls. In ranked-choice voting, the top two winners in the primary will face off in the November election. Currently Bass is polling in the lead and Nithya Raman is running second. If the numbers stay that way, the winner in November could finish Los Angeles off. Blade Runner, here we come.

But there’s still a chance that Spencer Pratt might place well in the June 2 primary just as Golden Tempo shot from dead last to win the Kentucky Derby last week.

The seductions of the Marxist race hustle have worn a little thin, even for Angelenos. Karen Bass looks increasingly ridiculous grinning about her abject failures, which Mr. Pratt lays out relentlessly in plain talk. His reality-testing seems to be getting some minds right, gaining real traction. Nithya Raman has the charisma of a mung bean.

The gubernatorial debate was equally edifying, especially the spectacle of Democratic Candidates Katie Porter’s and billionaire Tom Steyer’s rousing lack of self-awareness. Ms. Porter, renowned for dumping a pot of steaming mashed potatoes over her ex-husband’s head, and for her crotchety way with the (friendly) news media and her own staff, made the astounding statement that “the public servants we have are focused on doing their job, which is not cooperating with the federal immigration authorities.” That’s their job? Hmmmm. Mr. Steyer went further and said he would arrest ICE agents going about their business. You think . . .? (I would think that a Governor Steyer would find himself arrested by the feds for attempting such a stunt.)

The governor’s race is also a rank-choice contest. So, Republican Steve Hilton was on-hand to break the reality-optional spell that shrouded the stage like a poisonous miasma. After several Democrats made a show of deploring the grotesque homeless druggie encampments from Nob Hill to MacArthur Park, Mr. Hilton said “[They] talk as if we’re in some parallel universe where Democrats haven’t been running the state for the last sixteen years.” He shares the lead in the polls in the large field at 18-percent with Xavier Becerra, who was “Joe Biden’s” Secretary of Health and Human Services, meaning, he presided over the vaxx mandates and lockdowns of the Covid operation.

California is ground zero for the death dance of the Democratic Party. Symptoms are popping up all over the country, of course. Just this week, the FBI raided the headquarters of Virginia State Senator pro tempore L. Louise Lucas (D-Portsmouth) — and also raided the marijuana shop she co-owns next door to her HQ. The SCOTUS decision on Congressional redistricting has thrown many states’ Democratic Party outposts into a fugue of terror as they stand to lose as many as a dozen seats in Congress. DOJ prosecutions are underway against prominent Democrats in Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Many of their heroes could go to prison. Panic has set in. The Democratic Party as we know it these days is not long for this world.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 16:20

Toyota And Honda See Sharp Declines In Profit Amidst Iran War Pressures, Spiking EV Costs

Toyota expects a sharp decline in profit as rising material and shipping costs tied to the Iran conflict pressure its business, according to Bloomberg. 

The automaker projected operating income of ¥3 trillion for the fiscal year ending March 2027, well below both analyst expectations of ¥4.6 trillion and last year’s ¥3.8 trillion.

The company said supply chain disruptions are driving up costs for aluminum, resins, and other materials, while logistics issues remain unpredictable. Toyota estimates the regional conflict could reduce earnings by about ¥670 billion.

After the forecast was released, shares dropped as much as 3.5%. Analysts noted Toyota may be giving conservative guidance, but future performance will depend heavily on how long the conflict continues.

Julie Boote, an analyst at London-based research firm Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd told Bloomberg: “Toyota did not only miss consensus estimates, but also its own forecast, as auto unit sales came in much weaker than predicted by the automaker. It is still likely that Toyota is once again lowballing its guidance, with earnings upgrades possible during the fiscal year; much depends also on the development of the Iran war.”

Toyota expects vehicle sales to dip slightly this year, though hybrid sales are projected to surpass 5 million units for the first time. The company is also focusing more on after-sales services, which it sees as a major future profit driver.

Despite record annual revenue of ¥50.7 trillion, quarterly operating profit fell 49% due to tariffs and higher shipping expenses.

Meanwhile, Honda just posted an operating loss of 400 billion yen -- its first in the company's history, according to Nikkei. The loss was primarily driven by problems tied to its electric vehicle business and marks the company’s first operating loss since going public in 1957.

This is a major decline from the 1.2 trillion yen operating profit it reported the previous fiscal year. It would also be the second-largest operating loss ever reported by a Japanese automaker, behind Toyota Motor Corporation’s 461 billion yen loss during the 2009 global financial crisis, although accounting differences make direct comparisons imperfect, Nikkei writes.

In March, Honda said it expected an operating loss between 270 billion and 570 billion yen and announced it was canceling three planned EV launches in North America.

The company also projected up to 2.5 trillion yen in EV-related costs over fiscal years 2025–2027, including asset impairment charges and supplier compensation.

Despite these losses, Honda plans to return to operating profitability in the current fiscal year, supported by strong motorcycle sales in Asia, a weaker yen, and a broader turnaround strategy for its North American and Chinese businesses.

Nissan had also trimmed production due to the Iran war earlier in the year. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 15:50

Trump Gets Diplomatic Win In Ukraine War, 3-Day Ceasefire Declared For Russia's V-Day

President Trump announced Friday that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine have agreed to his request for a three-day ceasefire and a major prisoner swap. He hailed in a Truth Social post that this could be the "beginning of the end" of the long war between them.

He specified that the ceasefire would run Saturday through Monday - with Saturday being Victory Day celebrations in Russia. The Kremlin has been increasingly concerned that the major national holiday which commemorates its victory over Nazi Germany 81 years ago in World War II could be marred by drone attacks from Ukraine. There's no doubt that President Putin is welcoming of such a ceasefire declaration, and backing by Washington.

"I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump wrote. "The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II."

This is to include a suspension of all kinetic activity and the exchange of 1,000 prisoners by each country, the US president also said. While direct talks between the warring countries have not been happening, these kinds of prisoner exchanges have actually been somewhat of a constant throughout the over 4-year long war.

The timing is interesting, given that the White House is clearly consumed with the Iran war, the Hormuz Strait crisis, and the expanding economic fallout globally and at home. 

Moscow has meanwhile been threatening to attack Kiev with an unprecedented bombing campaign should V-Day events be disrupted by drone fire out of Ukraine this weekend.

Putin it seems is seeking the opportunity to soften Washington's stance toward Moscow's perspective of the Ukraine war. Also, at the moment Trump needs a diplomatic 'win' that he can tout to the world, given the Iran situation is sliding into a bit of a quagmire which could have dire consequences for Republicans going into the midterms.

Despite that Iran remains a key regional ally of Russia's, it remains that Moscow has benefited from both the easing of sanctions on its oil exports at sea, and rising global oil prices - both the result of the Iran war.

Previously, Kremlin leaders have offered a deal where Iran could keep its enriched uranium but hold it on Russian territory, to ensure the continuation of its nuclear energy. This, Moscow has reasoned, could serve as a basis for a grand deal with the US.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 15:30

Minnesota Democrats Unanimously Vote To Protect Rep. Ilhan Omar... And Dead Voters

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Minnesota Senate Democrats recently voted - unaminously - against removing deceased persons from the state’s voter rolls.

This tracks with the fact that almost 100% of dead people vote for Democrats, making them Democrats’ most loyal voting bloc, even surpassing that of serial killers.

(This may explain why, historically, Democrat gerrymandering seems designed to encompass as many cemeteries as possible. O.K., that is just an unfounded assertion, but it seems likely, does it not?)

The dead — and serial killers — are groups that vote heavily for Democrats? Talk about a symbiotic relationship! The latter provide the former! Genius! Kismet!

This after they also voted — unanimously -- against an oversight committee effort to compel Rep. Ilhan Omar to testify after she missed a deadline to provide documents to the committee investigating the Somali fraud rampant in the North Star State.

So the multi-millionaire or poverty-stricken representative (take your pick) from Somalia escapes a subpoena, at least for now.

It is obvious that Democrats in Minnesota are as wedded to fraud as Ilhan once was to her brother. And for the same reason: they will do whatever it takes to attain and retain power, so help them Allah.

They share the same goals as well, at least for now: to fleece law-abiding taxpayers out of as much money as possible, so as to line their own pockets -- and the pockets of those who help them attain and retain power.

In a sane country, at a sane moment in time, this would be considered an unethical, unacceptable, unconstitutional, illegal, and treasonous misuse of power, one that spits in the face of a representative democracy. Here today? Meh. Not good, but let’s not fly off the handle like our founders did. Tolerance and empathy, you see.

Democrats want as many illegals in the country as possible, because they vote for Democrats in droves. Why wouldn’t it be the same for dead folks? The more dead people, the more votes Democrats get. And, if the dead are erstwhile denizens of red states and rural areas, so much the better. Presto chango, a Republican has been converted into a Democrat! Remarkable!

This could explain Democrats’ love of abortion, medical assistance in dying, and violent criminals.

Our forefathers would have done whatever it took to counter this orgy of criminality.

Past mafia godfathers would be proud of it.

Today? Democrats like Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, and J.B. Pritzker might accurately be called “fraudfathers.”

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 15:10

Another Wall Street Giant Is Plotting Its Escape From Mamdani's New York City: Report

It looks like Citadel isn’t the only Wall Street giant looking for the exits as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D) continues his commie Robinhood thing on the city’s richest.

Fox Business Network’s Charles Gasparino reported Wednesday that the Manhattan-headquartered private equity giant Apollo is preparing to establish what insiders describe as a “second headquarters” in either Florida or Texas. A formal announcement on the location is expected within weeks.

The move would build on Apollo’s earlier internal memo to employees signaling plans for significant future growth outside its longtime New York base, amid a broader migration of financial firms toward business-friendly states in the South.

Gasparino reports:

The new outpost could eventually become home to as many as 1,000 employees over time – in line with Apollo’s current headcount in New York, the sources said. The buyout firm currently employs more than 6,000 worldwide.

Apollo paid a whopping $1.276 billion in income taxes in 2025, up from $1.062 billion the year before. While filings don’t break down how much of that went to the Big Apple, the city stands to lose a hefty revenue stream as the firm looks to expand elsewhere.

Apollo – headed by billionaire CEO Marc Rowan – is currently scouting out space in Miami and in Palm Beach, where Apollo already has a small presence, according to the sources. In Texas, office space in Austin is also under consideration, the insiders said.

News of Apollo’s plans come after billionaire Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Mamdani’s push for higher taxes on second homes has reinforced his firm's commitment to Miami - and even led the firm to scale up its planned headquarters there.

During a Tuesday interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Griffin confirmed that Citadel decided to enlarge its Miami office project after Mamdani publicly referenced his $238 million Central Park South penthouse while promoting a new pied-à-terre tax proposal.

“We went to Miami and revised our building plan to make it a bigger office building,” the high-profile investor said. “What the mayor of New York has made clear to my partners, and principally my New York partners, is that we need to double down on our bet in Miami.”

Griffin also said he watched Mamdani’s video three times, branding it “creepy and weird.”

The Citadel boss added that the situation brought back memories of his departure from Chicago, where he previously criticized local leadership before moving Citadel and Citadel Securities to Florida.

“Looking at what Mamdani did to me and more broadly is doing to the city of New York is triggering the trauma I went through in Chicago,” he explained.

Griffin’s announcement is part of “a troubling pattern taking shape” in the Big Apple, according to Steve Fulop, who leads the pro-business lobby organization. Partnership for New York City.

“The solution is that the administration needs to have a real pro-business agenda that has support of the broader business corporate community,” Fulop told Gasparino. “We haven’t seen this yet and there is a sense of urgency to getting this going. It is a competitive landscape and without a strategy companies will look to more friendly places.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 14:55

Taiwan Semiconductor April Sales Grow At Slowest Pace In 6 Months

Taiwan Semiconductor, world's largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October, highlighting the challenges of sustaining torrid AI-fueled pace of growth.

Sales in April rose 17.5% to NT$410.7 billion ($13.1 billion), their smallest rise in about six months. While the rise reflects just 30 days of business and its revenue can fluctuate month-to-month, the drop was notable; analysts expect the company’s June-quarter revenue to grow almost twice as fast, or at about 35% which means that May and June sales will have to be gangbusters to compensate for April's slowness. 

Taiwan’s largest company has become an essential player in the global AI industry by making cutting-edge semiconductors for the likes of Nvidia and AMD. That’s as Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta and Microsoft said they are setting aside $725 billion for AI this year, significantly more than previously anticipated. The question of where all this money will come from will be the next big hurdle for the market (we discussed it here ""Banks Are Choking": The AI Debt Bubble Has Started To Burst".)

Offsetting the huge AI orderbook are plateauing smartphone and consumer electronics sales, where soaring memory chip costs are forcing brands to hike prices leading to a big drop in demand. Economic uncertainty is also dampening consumer demand in many parts of the world.

For its part, TSMC has remained bullish on global AI chip demand. In April, the company raised its full-year sales guidance and said its own capital spending should trend toward the upper end of an existing forecast range of as much as $56 billion, conveying confidence in the year’s economic outlook. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 14:40

Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filings Increase 42%

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There were 644 commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings in April 2026, a 42 percent yearly increase, according to a May 6 statement from the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

A Chapter 11 bankruptcy seeks to reorganize a company’s debts, with the aim of keeping the business operational and, eventually, becoming solvent. This is the most common type of bankruptcy filing made by businesses.

Within the 644 commercial Chapter 11 filings last month, 301 were made by small businesses, up 46 percent year over year, ABI said.

Overall commercial filings, including Chapter 11 and other types of bankruptcies, rose 21 percent during this period to 3,060 filings this April.

Chapter 12 filings, which concern family farms and fisheries, surged 130 percent to 62 in April 2026, the highest monthly total since February 2020, according to the institute.

“Rising inflation, higher borrowing costs, and geopolitical uncertainty are intensifying the financial strain on families and businesses,” ABI Executive Director Amy Quackenboss said.

ABI “appreciates the momentum building in Congress to permanently expand access” for distressed small businesses looking to file bankruptcies for restructuring under Chapter 11, she said, referring to the Bankruptcy Threshold Adjustment Act of 2026.

The Act, introduced in March, seeks to permanently raise the small-business Chapter 11 bankruptcy debt threshold to $7.5 million, according to a March 5 statement from Rep. Ben Cline’s (R-Va.) office. The threshold is the maximum debt limit a small business owner can have while applying for such bankruptcy.

The higher limit will allow more small businesses to access a “faster, more cost-effective bankruptcy process” while they negotiate with creditors.

“The Bankruptcy Threshold Adjustment Act will give small businesses the certainty they need to reorganize, restructure, and keep operating when challenges arise,” Cline said.

“By permanently raising the eligibility threshold, we’re ensuring more job creators can access a streamlined and affordable bankruptcy process that helps them stay open, protect paychecks, and meet their obligations. Just as importantly, this bipartisan bill maintains the integrity of our bankruptcy system by keeping it self-supporting and fair for all who rely on it.”

Economic Indicators

While bankruptcy numbers are increasing, other economic indicators, such as employment and business sector activity, are giving mixed to positive signals.

For instance, the initial unemployment weekly claims for the week ending May 2 stood at 200,000. While this was an increase of 10,000 claims compared to the previous week, the four-week moving average of the claims fell by 4,500 during this period.

In a May 7 statement, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said that its April jobs report indicates “softening” in the employment market.

The organization’s Small Business Employment Index declined for the second straight month in April. However, “even in a month with a weaker Employment Index, over half of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire,” NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said.

Regarding business activity in the United States, five of seven sectors tracked by S&P Global registered higher activity in April than the previous month, according to a May 5 statement from the company.

In April, the health care, consumer goods, industrials, basic materials, and consumer services sectors grew month over month, while technology and financial sectors posted declines. Health care and consumer goods were the two top-performing sectors.

“The latest increase in Consumer Goods production was the steepest since April 2022,” S&P said. “This partly reflected advanced purchasing and customer stock building in response to expected price hikes, as the rate of new order growth surged to its highest since August 2021.”

As for the country’s overall economic growth, the first quarter 2026 U.S. GDP growth was 2 percent, up from 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to an April 30 estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In late April, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that U.S. growth was “really solid” across the economy.

“Some of that is that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well; the most recent data are good. And some of it is just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over the United States,” Powell said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 14:20

Maryland Blames Data Centers For $1.6 Billion Power Bill Shock, Omits Green Energy Mess

Maryland's Office of People's Counsel released a new report warning that homeowners in the state could face $1.6 billion in additional power bill costs over the next decade to subsidize transmission line upgrades, largely due to data center demand outside Maryland, more specifically from data centers in Northern Virginia.

OPC filed a complaint with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) arguing that PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. grid operator, is forcing Maryland power customers to shoulder costs for grid expansion projects that feed into Northern Virginia. The complaint was titled "OPC complaint challenges PJM cost rules for unfairly assigning $2 billion in data center-driven transmission costs to Marylanders."

People's Counsel David Lapp said Maryland residents neither caused the need for the transmission line projects nor will they meaningfully benefit from them:

"Without FERC action, Maryland customers face paying billions for transmission infrastructure that PJM is advancing to benefit data centers. PJM's cost allocation rules are broken. Maryland customers have neither caused the need for these billions in new transmission projects nor will they meaningfully benefit from them."

The complaint comes as the Mid-Atlantic region, specifically Maryland, is locked in a power bill crisis, with a confluence of bad "green" energy policies colliding with the AI data center boom.

Not mentioned by the OPC or the one-party-ruled state of Democratic Party kings and queens is that Maryland is structurally dependent on imported power through PJM. It does not produce enough electricity inside the state to cover its own load, which makes power customers more exposed to regional grid costs, transmission upgrades, electricity price spikes, and data-center-driven demand growth outside of Maryland.

How did Maryland get to the point where it has to import roughly 24 million megawatt-hours of electricity a year, using 2024 EIA data, or about 40% of in-state electricity demand?

It is due to poor state-level management by politicians and their 'green' energy policies, which led to the early retirements of coal power plants and to a failure to prioritize new, reliable power to increase baseload.

Local outlet Fox Baltimore recently quoted Ed Hale, the Republican candidate for governor, who blamed the state's green energy policies and the early retirement of fossil-fuel power plants for the power bil mess. 

"We have a lot of fossil fuels here that burn a lot easier and cleaner than in the old days," Hale said earlier this year. "I'm thinking that we have to do better, and we have to reopen the plants that have been not torn down, and just get them open again and reenergize them."

Beyond Maryland, but still in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, there is a hidden cost to the AI buildout: surging carbon prices are pushing up CO2 costs across the region past California levels, raising the prospect of higher energy costs for consumers, according to Bloomberg.

The price to emit a so-called short ton of CO2 into the atmosphere under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a market covering 10 states, including New York, jumped 12% on Monday to $53.50, adding to a 31% gain last week. Traders are betting that Virginia's planned return to the market in July will boost demand for permits, as the state is the world's largest hub for data centers.

Whether through misguided green policies at the state level, such as charging companies for CO2 emissions, the prior 'everything green' framework has miserably failed consumers.

If the U.S. wants to win the AI race, progressive states like Maryland must build out new power generation and consider reactivating coal plants, while recognizing that becoming 'greener' could result in becoming poorer - Europe is finding that out (read here).

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 14:00

Ancient Settlement Older Than The Pyramids Discovered; Rewrites North American History

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news,

An ancient Indigenous settlement unearthed near Sturgeon Lake in Saskatchewan is challenging long-held views about early human presence in North America.

Dating to around 11,000 years ago and predating Egypt’s Great Pyramid by more than 6,000 years, according to the official timeline, the site provides evidence of long-term habitation rather than temporary camps.

Archaeologists working with Sturgeon Lake First Nation uncovered stone tools, fire pits, toolmaking materials, and remains of the extinct Bison antiquus. Charcoal layers point to controlled fire management, aligning with oral traditions. The findings suggest a sophisticated society with advanced hunting strategies, including buffalo jumps.

Experts found a Native American settlement older than the pyramids…

North America’s earliest inhabitants formed stable communities far earlier than previously believed.

Archaeologists working near Sturgeon Lake in Saskatchewan have unearthed evidence of a sophisticated… pic.twitter.com/8kh38Cklrf

— Shining Science (@ShiningScience) May 7, 2026

The site, known as Âsowanânihk (“a place to cross” in Cree), lies about five kilometres north of Prince Albert along the North Saskatchewan River. It was first spotted by avocational archaeologist Dave Rondeau through riverbank erosion exposing artifacts.

Rondeau said: “The moment I saw the layers of history peeking through the soil, I felt the weight of generations staring back at me. Now that the evidence has proven my first instincts, this site is shaking up everything we thought we knew and could change the narrative of early Indigenous civilizations in North America.”

Dr. Glenn Stuart of the University of Saskatchewan added: “This discovery challenges the outdated idea that early Indigenous peoples were solely nomadic. The evidence of long-term settlement and land stewardship suggests a deep-rooted presence. It also raises questions about the Bering Strait Theory, supporting oral histories that Indigenous communities have lived here for countless generations.”

Prehistoric settlement discovery in North America older than Egypt's Great Pyramid rewrites human history https://t.co/PVQjzCRF63

— Daily Mail US (@Daily_MailUS) May 7, 2026

Excavations indicate the location served as a hub for organized activity shortly after the last Ice Age. Researchers compare its importance to iconic global sites like the Great Pyramids, Stonehenge, and Göbekli Tepe.

The discovery includes evidence of bison pounds and kill sites, with hunters targeting massive Bison antiquus weighing up to 4,400 pounds. This points to coordinated community efforts and deep environmental knowledge.

Chief Christine Longjohn of Sturgeon Lake First Nation stated: “This discovery is a powerful reminder that our ancestors were here, building, thriving and shaping the land long before history books acknowledged us. For too long, our voices have been silenced, but this site speaks for us, proving that our roots run deep and unbroken. It carries the footsteps of our ancestors, their struggles, their triumphs, and their wisdom. Every stone, every artifact is a testament to their strength. We are not just reclaiming history, we are reclaiming our rightful place in it.”

The site, on Treaty 6 territory home to the Plains Cree, faces potential threats from logging and industrial activity. The Âsowanânihk Council, involving Elders, youth, educators, and archaeologists from the University of Saskatchewan and University of Calgary, is leading protection and further study efforts. Plans include a cultural interpretive centre.

Carbon dating of charcoal from a hearth places activity at about 10,700 years ago, roughly 1,000 years earlier than prior estimates for organized settlement in the region.

This find adds physical evidence to oral histories describing the area as a cultural and trade center, highlighting sophisticated land stewardship in post-glacial North America.

The discovery underscores ongoing collaboration between Indigenous communities and researchers to preserve and understand this chapter of human history. Further excavations and funding could yield more insights into early societal organization on the continent.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 13:45

Intel Jumps To Record High On Deal To Make Chips For Apple, Following White House Pressure

Already looking like something right out of the dot com bubble, Intel stock soared even more moments ago, surging almost 20% and hitting a new all time high over $130 (it was trading at $80 a few days ago), after the WSJ reported that the White House-backed chipmaker has reached a preliminary agreement to manufacture some of the chips that power Apple devices. Which is ironic as just 6 short years ago Apple surprised the market when it announced it was parting ways with Intel, replacing the company's chips with its own, a move which was dubbed a huge success. Now, following intense White House pressure, it has decided to reverse this decision. 

While it is well known that talks between the two companies have been ongoing for more than a year - which has been one of the reasons for Intel's recent meteoric advance - they hammered out a formal deal in recent months. 

It’s still unclear which Apple products Intel would make chips for, if any, or if today's PR was just to plant the seeds for the US to sell its Intel stake after Trump was boasting recently how much money he made for US taxpayers since getting a big stake in the company last summer when it was trading below $20. 

Intel has two main business lines: designing chips and manufacturing them - both its own designs and external customers’ - in its Intel Foundry unit. Both businesses had been underperforming for years before Lip-Bu Tan took over as chief executive last spring vowing to revitalize them.  

Following our advice from August 7, 2025...

The Pentagon took a stake in US rare earth miner MP Materials... when will it do the same with Intel

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2025

... one week later, on August 14, the Trump administration struck a deal to convert nearly $9 billion in federal grants into Intel stock, giving the U.S. government a 10% stake in the chip-maker.

And the key bit from the WSJ report: the White House "played a key role in bringing Apple to the table."

According to the report, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has met repeatedly over the last year with high-ranking Apple officials, including CEO Tim Cook, as well as SpaceX chief Elon Musk and Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang, to try to convince them to get into business with Intel, some of the people familiar with the matter said.

And with the Apple deal, Intel has now signed partnerships with all three. Now it remains to be seen if any of the three will actually use Intel's chips for more than just press release bullet points. 

Over the last decade, Intel fell badly behind rivals such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Samsung Electronics after a series of technical missteps, leadership changes and failed attempts at consolidation led outside foundry customers to pull or curb their business.

When Intel hired Tan in March 2025 to replace ousted CEO Pat Gelsinger, Trump raised concerns that Tan’s close ties with China would compromise him and called for his ouster.  But Tan won Trump over with a charm offensive, and the government announced its 10% investment in Intel shortly after. Following the investment, Intel’s share price rose sharply. On Friday morning it rose 7.5% to an all-time high of nearly $118 per share. 

Tan has been reshaping Intel’s top leadership ranks in recent months as well, including hiring former Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing executive Wei-Jen Lo, a move that prompted a lawsuit from TSMC. 

The Intel CEO also ousted his head of product and hired new executives to lead the company’s data center processor and client computing units, as well as a newly formed custom silicon business. He has also invested heavily in Intel’s most-advanced manufacturing process, known as 14A.  

President Trump personally advocated for Intel to Cook in a meeting at the White House, according to people familiar with the matter.

“I like Intel,” President Trump said in January. He said the government had made “tens of billions of dollars” from the Intel deal, and that the government’s backing of the company had attracted important partners to Intel. 

“As soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in,” President Trump said. 

Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel in September and the two companies announced a partnership under which Intel would build custom data center CPUs for Nvidia. And last month, Elon Musk and Intel announced an ambitious plan to build a chip manufacturing plant in Texas as part of Musk’s  Terafab project to produce chips for Tesla, xAI and SpaceX. 

Apple relies on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to make the chips it designs for iPhones, iPads, Macs and other devices, and is under pressure to find additional chip suppliers. On Apple’s last two earnings conference calls, Cook has blamed a lack of availability of advanced chips for Apple’s inability to meet customer demand for iPhones.

The constraints are expected to continue into the current quarter, affecting several Mac models, Cook said. “We think, looking forward, that the Mac Mini and the Mac Studio may take several months to reach supply-demand balance,” Cook said. Last Friday, the day after the earnings call, Apple raised the Mac Mini’s starting price.

TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities far surpass those of Samsung and Intel. Makers of other kinds of chips, for memory and storage for example, are more competitive with one another, giving Apple multiple sources of supply.

Apple has long been TSMC’s top customer, but skyrocketing demand for its manufacturing capacity from Nvidia and other designers of AI chips means Apple no longer has as much leverage to secure the supplies it needs. Starting in 2006, Apple used Intel-designed CPUs as the main processors for its personal computers, but switched to its own custom CPUs, based on a design architecture from Arm Holding, in 2020.

As for Intel stock, while we have enjoyed the recent meltup, the reversal - when it comes - will be painful.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 13:26

Vaccine Trade Returns? Moderna Working On Hantavirus Shot Sends Shares Higher

Moderna is out with timely news that it is working on early-stage research on vaccines targeting hantaviruses. The news comes as a Spanish woman has been hospitalized for a suspected infection, while a hantavirus cluster has ravaged a Dutch-flagged cruise ship, with five confirmed and three suspected cases of hantavirus. Three deaths have been reported so far.

Bloomberg reports that Moderna is collaborating with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases on hantavirus vaccine research and is also working with Korea University College of Medicine's Vaccine Innovation Center on a potential vaccine.

"These efforts are early-stage and ongoing and reflect Moderna's broader responsibility to develop countermeasures against emerging infectious diseases," Moderna said.

Moderna said its work on hantavirus vaccines began before the cruise ship Hondius reported an outbreak while anchored off the coast of Cape Verde, on the west coast of Africa, last week.

Anais Legand, a technical officer at the World Health Organization (WHO), provided an update earlier today stating that all remaining passengers on the Hondius have left the ship without symptoms.

"They will be asked to take their temperature every single day for 42 days. They will be asked to check every day for other symptoms like feeling unwell or a headache," Legand said, adding, "They will be provided with someone to contact. If they're not feeling well, it's up to the national authorities where people will go next."

WHO Emergencies Communications Lead Nyka Alexander stated in a livestreamed update earlier that "the risk to the public remains low."

Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses that naturally infect rodents and can occasionally spread to people.

Here’s what you need to know about #hantavirus: What they are, how they spread, the symptoms, and how to prevent infection pic.twitter.com/pduUjlwl2j

— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) May 8, 2026

Nevertheless, the news sent Moderna shares higher around noon. Shares had already been rising after the company reported that its mRNA flu vaccine outperformed in a late-stage study, likely driving early market activity. Shares are up 18%.

President Trump told an ABC News reporter on Thursday that "It's very much, we hope, under control." 

HANTAVIRUS UPDATE: President Trump is monitoring the hantavirus outbreak linked to the cruise ship that has already resulted in three deaths.

Spain is preparing for the vessel’s arrival as officials track about 40 people, including Americans, who left the ship before the… pic.twitter.com/pPoppLn8N8

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 8, 2026

Polymarket:

//--> //--> Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Yes 9% · No 91%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

It is only a matter of time before other struggling biotech companies announce that they, too, are developing vaccines to prevent the next potential pandemic. This follows the Covid playbook.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 13:05

OnlyFans Lures Outside Capital As Architect Capital And Billionaire Tag Team Deal

Nearly seven weeks after OnlyFans owner and billionaire Leonid Radvinsky died, and after months of reports that the sex-worker streaming platform was exploring a stake sale, the Financial Times reported Friday morning that San Francisco-based Architect Capital is preparing to buy a minority stake in the company.

Australian billionaire James Packer, best known as the former head of the Packer family's media and casino empire, is expected to be among a group of investors lined up to support Architect Capital's deal to acquire a 15% stake in OnlyFans at a $3.1 billion valuation, according to FT's sources.

The deal would leave control of OnlyFans with the family trust headed by Katie Chudnovsky, widow of late owner Leonid, who acquired OnlyFans in 2018 via Fenix International.

Leonid died in March at 43. He was apparently battling cancer for several years. 

Top OnlyFans creator pornstar Sophie Rain mourned the death of Leonid, saying back in March how he "built something that changed my entire life. Like, I grew up on food stamps and now I can take care of my whole family because of a platform he created. I will never forget that." 

Radvinsky studied economics at Northwestern University and by 2018 had bought a majority stake in OnlyFans and helped transform the video content platform into an adult-content subscription business powerhouse that reshaped how sex workers monetize their bodies. 

OnlyFans was founded in 2016 and exploded in popularity during the Covid pandemic. Some of the latest data from 2024 showed the website had 4.6 million creators, 377 million fans, and $1.4 billion in revenue.

As we've previously noted, Americans spent an estimated $2.6 billion on OnlyFans subscriptions in 2025.

OnlyFans is bringing in outside capital without giving up control while leaving Radvinsky's wife in charge. This may suggest the family trust is cashing out some value while simultaneously creating a pathway for broader monetization.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 12:50

Closer Look Reveals April Jobs Report Was A Disaster, And AI Is Now Here To Take Your Job

On the surface today's jobs report was very strong: headline payrolls came in nearly double the expected (115K vs 65K), with unemployment flat just so Trump's chief economist Kevin Hassett could push bullish taking points in today's TV circuit such as this one.

• *HASSETT: 'RIP-ROARING' JOBS MARKET

Unfortunately, below the surface this was the ugliest jobs report in years, and one could say even more cooked than last month's laughable surge in jobs (which was revised from 178K to 185K).

Here's why.

First, while the Establishment survey showed an impressive 115K jump in jobs when virtually everyone was expecting a big drop, looking at the composition reveals two things: the biggest contributor was semi-government jobs from the Education and Health services category which added 46K, and has been the biggest, and only consistent source of jobs growth this decade.

But even more remarkable was the surge in courier and messenger jobs, which soared by 38K in April, reversing the 52K drop last month. Was there a Doordash or Uber hiring binge that we missed last month? We thought they were mostly laying off their thousands of illegal alien workers... 

In other words, just two job categories accounted for almost all the job gains in April. As for the beating heart of the US economy, manufacturing jobs, they tumbled to -2,000 after surging 15,000 in March, the first negative print of 2026. Manufacturing jobs are now down 73K over the past year. Chemicals, Wood, and Machinery manufacturing are the biggest losers, but few subsectors are doing well

But what is even more concerning, is that the entire base of the monthly print was put in doubt after the BLS reported that in April, the Birth/Death adjustment "added" 391K jobs, which as we have explained repeatedly are not actual jobs but a baseline for model assumptions what the number of jobs in a given month "should" be. One would think after all the huge negative revisions to jobs under Biden as a result of flawed BIrth/Death assumptions the BLS would have learned its lesson. One would be wrong. 

But stepping away from the Establishment survey, things are even uglier in the much more accurate Household Survey. It is here that we find that contrary to the abovementioned payrolls increase, the number of employed workers actually declined by 226K in April. Worse, this wasn't a one off: as shown below, the number of employed workers has been declining every month this year, and is now down an average of 343K jobs every month of 2026 after hitting a record high in Dec 2025!

Unfortunately, this means that we are once again witnessing the infamous divergence between the Household And Establishment surveys, as the number of employed workers has been declining and is now the lowest since December 2024 ot 162.622 million, the number of payrolls (tracked by the Establishment survey) is now at an all time high of 158.735 million, a number which is clearly not supported by the data.

This divergence is also why the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%: even though employment shrank by 226K to 162.622 million, the unemployment rate did not rise because people left the labor force.

There was more rot under the surface, as the number of full-time jobs in April plunged by 424K, while part-time jobs surged by 123K.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024. In other words both total employment and full-time jobs are back to where they were when Trump was elected.

But while all of the above is just the usual statistical gimmicks we have exposed every year for nearly two decades, there was something much more ominous in today's report: AI is finally coming for your job... if you are a programmer that is. 

While the total number of jobs in April rose, on the abovementioned low quality Health and education and courrier (?) jobs, information jobs dropped again, sliding by 13K, having slid again... and again... and again. In fact, as shown in the next chart, Information jobs have now been negative every month since 2024!

Don't expect that to change any time soon as the impact of AI "jobs outsourcing" is now here: as Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky noted, we are seeing a flood of tech layoffs among which Cloudflare laying off 20%, Paypall firing 20%, Upwork 25%, Bill Holdings 30%, Coinbase 14%, Meta 10%, Microsoft 7%... and Google saying 75% of new code is now AI-generated (and about to layoff double digits too). This excludes the bloodbath across the crypto sector where the crypto winter coupled with AI has led to especially brutal mass layoffs.

Tech companies announced 33,361 job cuts in April, according to data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. So far this year, the industry has planned 85,411 cuts, up 33% from the same period in 2025.

“Technology companies continue to announce large-scale cuts and are leading all industries in layoff announcements,” said Andy Challenger, the company’s chief revenue officer. “Regardless of whether individual jobs are being replaced by AI, the money for those roles is.”

According to Layoffs.FYI, Q1 has seen the most tech related layoffs since the tech recession of 2022.

As Goldman's Privorotsky puts it, "this phase has been the capex boom to enable what eventually becomes a far more radical labor adjustment cycle." Which means workers are laid off to make space for capex spending and the occasional stock buyback. 

As he concludes, that may ultimately be what the market believes a future Fed reaction function will revolve around…AI-driven productivity disinflation eventually allowing a much deeper cutting cycle. In short, the Universal Basic Income that we predicted over two years ago is coming to pay for welfare for the tens of millions soon to be laid off due to AI, is now on its way.

Market pricing so much AI success, it will need to leave about 100 million people without a job.

Bring on the UBI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 24, 2024

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 12:22

"Damage Done Already" - Oil May Take Year To Normalize: Adam Parker

Last night’s ZeroHedge debate featured the cautiously bullish Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief equity strategist who now runs Trivariate, and bearish money manager Michael Pento, hosted by Adam Taggart of Thoughtful Money.

While Parker is largely optimistic about equities, he put forth a gloomy prediction on gas prices, based on what he is hearing as a consensus on Wall Street. Namely that prices will remain high for at least a year even if Hormuz were to open today.

His full comments below and highlights from last night's debate. Check out the full discussion to hear how both Pento and Parker are positioned going into year-end:

Best case: More pain at the pump

Parker warned that oil markets may remain structurally elevated even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, arguing that current pricing still underestimates how long normalization could take.

“The consensus view is it takes much longer to normalize than what’s in the 12-month forward Brent,” Parker said, noting that forward oil pricing in the high-$70 range likely needs to be revised upward.

“Even if we’ve really truly reached some agreement now, it’ll take several months to get back toward where we were already, maybe a year.”

Parker added that economic damage from the energy spike has likely already occurred, particularly for consumer-facing sectors.

“There’s damage done already to consumer discretionary and staples earnings.”

He argued the bigger debate now is whether equity markets continue looking through the near-term pressure on the assumption conditions eventually improve.

pic.twitter.com/U7l6fCDG9h

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 8, 2026

If Hormuz doesn’t open…

Renewed hot Middle East conflict and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz would quickly mean severe inflation and a likely recession, according to Pento. In other words: stagflation.

“Prolonged conflagration in the Middle East? Well, first of all, that would send CPI up even higher. And that would send interest rates up even higher,” Pento said, warning that much of recent GDP growth has been debt-funded rather than organic cash flow.

“Interest rates are going to go much higher as they follow inflation higher. That could put the kibosh on all this borrowing.”

Pento argued that if oil prices hit $150 per barrel, things go South quickly.

“If oil goes to 150 and stays there or thereabouts, you’ll see stocks drop and you’ll see home prices drop. And that really torpedoes the top 20% purchasing power.”

He added that recession odds rise significantly if oil remains above $100 to $120 “for any kind of duration, a couple of months,” calling it “a big problem for the stock market.”

Meanwhile trading the day-to-day is impossible because “you can get a tweet from Trump telling everybody that things are going great now and we’re about to sign a deal. And then the next thing you know, you turn around, you go to the bathroom, you come back and bombs are being lobbed at ships. It’s that stochastic.”

pic.twitter.com/NvCvBoiYuJ

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) May 8, 2026

Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify.

Watch Now: the ZeroHedge Big Picture Market debate: Adam Parker vs Michael Pento, moderated by Adam Taggarthttps://t.co/rGqcyox7Jy

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 7, 2026

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 12:20

US Jobs Jump 115K, Smashing Estimates; Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 4.3%

In his preview of today's NFP report, Goldman's Delta One head wrote that "NFP almost feels like a sideshow at this point. You can argue weak labor data gives a Warsh led Fed enough cover to cut, but with oil and input inflation still elevated there’s also an argument that a weakening labor market alongside a constrained Fed is actually the more difficult combination for risk assets." With that in mind, moments ago the BLS reported that in April the US added a red hot 115K, above the median consensus of 65K (and near the upper end of the forecast range which peaked at 133K), down from an upward revised (for once) 185K (originally 178K). This was the first back to back gain in jobs in a year.

The change in February jobs was revised down by 23,000, from -133,000 to -156,000, and the change for March was revised up by 7,000, from +178,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 16,000 lower than previously reported

A look below the surface reveals a less impressive picture: while payrolls rose to a new record high, actual employment has dropped to the lowest since January 2025...

... as the monthly change in payrolls has disconnected dramatically from actual jobs, which dropped by 226K in April and are now down 4 months in a row!

Also worth noting: while it's seasonal, in April the US saw 391K jobs added only in speadsheets thanks to a surge in Birth/Death model adjustments, the highest since October, and clearly a revision of the previous trend of revising birth death adjustments lower.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%, in line with expectations, which is odd since all major ethnic groups saw their unemployment rate increase...

... while the Labor Force Participation Rate dipped to 61.8% from 61.9%. The employment-population ratio, at 59.1 percent, changed little in April. These measures edged down over the year after accounting for annual population control adjustments. 

Wage growth came in cooler than expected, rising 0.2% MoM, below the 0.3% expected, and translating into a 3.6% annual increase, also below the 3.8% expected.

Some more details from the April report:

• The number of people jobless less than 5 weeks increased by 358,000 to 2.5 million in April. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.8 million and accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 445,000 to 4.9 million in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little at 6.1 million in April. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.8 million in April. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was also little changed in April at 475,000. 

Looking at the composition of the report, employment edged up by 115,000 in April, after showing little net change over the prior 12 months. In April, job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. 

• Health care added 37,000 jobs, in line with the average monthly gain of 32,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in nursing and residential care facilities (+15,000) and home health care services (+11,000).
• Transportation and warehousing employment increased by 30,000 in April, reflecting a gain in couriers and messengers (+38,000). However, employment in transportation and warehousing is down by 105,000 since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Retail trade added 22,000 jobs in April. Employment increased in warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (+18,000) and in building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (+13,000). These gains were partially offset by job losses in department stores (-7,000) and in electronics and appliance retailers (-2,000). Retail trade employment had shown little net change over the prior 12 months. 
• Social assistance continued to trend up in April (+17,000), reflecting a gain of 24,000 jobs in individual and family services.
• Federal government employment continued to decline in April (-9,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 348,000, or 11.5 percent. Federal employees on furlough during the partial government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they worked or received (or will receive) pay for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.
• Employment in information continued to trend down in April (-13,000). Telecommunications lost 3,000 jobs, while employment continued to trend down in motion picture and sound recording industries (-6,000) and in computing infrastructure providers, data processing, web hosting, and related services (-4,000). Information employment is down by 342,000, or 11.0 percent, since its most recent peak in November 2022.
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Visually:

A few things stood out here: the monthly increase in courriers and messengers (i.e. DoorDash delivery(, +38K, was the highest since covid!

Government was also notable: total government jobs have now declined every month since October, and arr down 9 of the past 10 months.

But that is nothing compared to the depression in the Information sector, where jobs are now down every months since 2024!

Finally, looking at the quality composition of the jobs report, we find that in April, the US added 123K part-time jobs, while 424K full-time jobs were lost.

The drop in full-time jobs dragged the total number of full-time workers to levels last seen in December 2024!

The only silver lining: after plunging at the end of 2025 and start of 2026, and after a big drop in March, native-born workers rose by 341K in April, while foreign-born dropped by 326K.

In short, this was a much uglier jobs report than the clearly "nudged" headline indicates, although we doubt that anyone in the market will notice when all that matters if whether memory stocks today have momentum or not.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:25

Ukrainian Drone Strike Paralyzes Airports Across All Southern Russia

Russian cities and communities are busy preparing Victory Day WW2 memorial events all across the country ahead of Saturday, and so security is already on edge and on high alert, especially in the Moscow area, given that Ukraine's devastating cross-border drone attacks have persisted and expanded of late.

On Friday air traffic at 13 airports across southern Russia was suspended after drones struck a building at a regional air navigation center in Rostov-on-Don, Russia's transport ministry confirmed. This was the crucial air traffic control center for the whole region, and so its being taken offline has had significant impact.

Airspace empty over southern Russia

Regional media has listed that it halted flights to and from airports in Astrakhan, Vladikavkaz, Volgograd, Gelendzhik, Grozny, Krasnodar, Makhachkala, Magas, Mineralnye Vody, Nalchik, Sochi, Stavropol and Elista.

"The regional air traffic control center in Rostov-on-Don, which manages air traffic in southern Russia, has been temporarily adjusted due to the Ukrainian drone strike ... personnel are safe, and equipment is being assessed" to determine whether operations can be restored, the ministry said on Telegram.

According to the Amsterdam-based Moscow Times, "Aeroflot, Pobeda, Nordwind and Rossiya Airlines said they were adjusting their flight schedules for Friday and would need to cancel some flights. At least 14,000 passengers were stuck due to delays and cancellations, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia said."

"Russia’s Transportation Minister Andrey Nikitin asked major airlines to coordinate with the state-owned Russian Railways and the Unified Transportation Directorate to arrange for trains and buses to transfer passengers from canceled flights," the report noted.

On the same day, over 260 drones were intercepted across various sectors of the country - which suggests that in total at least several hundreds were sent. Once again, some of them reached as far away as the Perm region in the Ural Mountains.

The drone waves have continued despite that Russia unilaterally announced a ceasefire corresponding with V-Day events commemorating victory over Germany in WW2. The ceasefire runs May 8-10; however, Ukraine has not acknowledged this.

Still, the Defense Ministry is acting as if it is on and it is official, having announced in a statement Friday morning that it has observed 1,365 violations by Ukraine since midnight.

✈️ A couple of drones paralyzed Russian aviation — airports are collapsing again

UAVs struck the building of the “Air Navigation of Southern Russia” branch in Rostov-on-Don. Operations at 13 airports have now been suspended.

Aeroflot is massively cancelling and delaying… pic.twitter.com/9A3B8XowAX

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 8, 2026

The Kremlin is putting the Ukrainian capital on notice, telling foreign diplomats to evacuate in the instance that Ukraine's military tries to disrupt Saturday celebrations in Moscow and Red Square.

Russian leaders have wared Kiev will get pummeled in an unprecedented bombing if President Zelensky orders any drone attacks on Moscow. He had actually appeared to threaten precisely these events during remarks earlier in the week.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:20

OpenAI Valuation Doubts Loom As Softbank Scales Back Margin Loan

SoftBank Group's abrupt scaling back of a planned $10 billion margin loan backed by its roughly 13% stake in OpenAI - now targeting as little as $6 billion - reveals deepening lender unease over the AI giant’s $852 billion post-money valuation set in March 2026.

The move follows earlier $40 billion bridge financing and comes amid reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and weekly-active-user targets earlier this year.

While the loan itself is SoftBank’s problem, the episode carries real risks for OpenAI.

The clearest danger is a loss of valuation momentum (a down-round!).

Reuters reports that lenders, including banks and private-credit funds, balked at assigning reliable collateral value to unlisted shares in a company whose secondary-market demand has already cooled.

With sellers reportedly outnumbering buyers and rival Anthropic drawing stronger interest, the episode reinforces perceptions that OpenAI’s headline valuation may be frothy.

This could make future capital raises more expensive or dilutive, especially if OpenAI needs additional funding to service its enormous compute commitments - estimated in the hundreds of billions over the next few years.

An anticipated IPO, once seen as straightforward at premium multiples, might now face haircuts or heavier scrutiny from public-market investors wary of missing-growth signals.

SoftBank’s own leverage adds indirect pressure.

The Japanese conglomerate is one of OpenAI’s largest backers and has layered significant debt atop its AI bets.

Should credit markets tighten further or OpenAI’s performance lag, SoftBank could face margin calls or be forced to sell secondary shares - flooding an already thin market and driving down perceived value.

That, in turn, might erode employee and partner confidence, complicate talent retention in a hyper-competitive sector, and chill the broader AI investment narrative that has sustained OpenAI’s sky-high spending.

While none of this is immediately existential - OpenAI retains strong revenue growth, marquee partnerships, and Sam Altman’s (circular) deal-making clout - the SoftBank loan retreat is a tangible warning: private-market exuberance can evaporate quickly when lenders demand proof that eye-popping valuations match real cash flows.

If sentiment sours further, OpenAI could find itself navigating a far narrower runway than its $852 billion price tag once implied... and as OpenAI goes, so goes the hyperscalers' budgets as the circular financing of all this spend breaks down with any chinks in the armor of of OpenAI's exponential growth expectations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 09:04

Pandemic? Trump Remains Confident Hantavirus Situation Under Control

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on May 7 that he had been briefed on a hantavirus cluster tied to a cruise ship and that he was hopeful that the situation was still contained, as federal health authorities track the American passengers who returned home. The president also said he expected more information on Friday.

Trump offered his assessment to reporters regarding the outbreak aboard the MV Hondius, which had passengers from multiple countries, including the United States. The vessel was traveling from Ushuaia, Argentina, through Antarctic waters and made various stops before reports of severe respiratory illnesses began to emerge.

“It’s very much, we hope, under control,” Trump told a reporter from ABC News.

“It was the ship. And I think we’re going to make a full report about it tomorrow. We have a lot of great people studying it. It should be fine, we hope.”

Trump was then further pressed by the reporter on whether Americans should be concerned.

“I hope not,” he said. “We’ll do the best we can.”

The president noted that officials planned further announcements on the matter. Public documents from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention affirmed the U.S. government is following the situation closely with U.S. travelers aboard the ship. The State Department is leading a coordinated response, including contact with passengers and engagement with domestic and international partners.

“We have a lot of people—a lot of great people are studying it,” Trump said.

According to CDC statements, the risk to the American public is described as extremely low. Health officials in at least several states are monitoring individuals who disembarked from the affected vessel. No widespread transmission among the general population has been seen, according to available public health updates.

Hantavirus infections, generally tied to rodent exposure, can cause serious respiratory issues. The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported cases related to the ship, such as confirmed infections and fatalities among passengers of various nationalities.

The CDC notes on its website ongoing technical cooperation with international partners on the outbreak.

The CDC has gathered experts on the specific hantavirus strain in question, revealed by the South African Ministry of Health on May 5 to be the Andes variant, which is understood to be capable of person-to-person transmission under limited circumstances.

Hantavirus has a history in the Americas.

The CDC has noted hundreds of cases in the United States over decades, particularly linked to rural rodent contact, not travel clusters.

This ship-associated outbreak stands out for its scale and setting, leading to rodent control reviews and sanitation assessments per international ship health guidelines.

The WHO said on May 7 that there are eight cases linked to the cruise ship, including the three individuals who died amid the outbreak. Five of the cases have been confirmed to be Hantavirus.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:40

Futures Rebound, Trade At All Time Highs On, What Else: Tech And Iran Optimism

US equity futures are higher and just shy of a new record, with technology names leading futures higher ahead of April jobs report, after Trump’s assertion that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite an exchange of weapons between the US and Iran overnight, and a deep weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum. Markets are higher ahead of NFP data later this morning following yesterday’s very ‘unwindy’ session (High Beta Momo -7.96%, Software vs Semis +5.83%, Power -3.44%, HF VIP Longs -1.36%). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rise 0.5% and are back over 7,400 while Nasdaq futures gain 0.7%. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA +0.9% and TSLA +0.9%.Sentiment reversed from Thursday's drop after Trump last night said the recent US strikes on Iranian military facility does not affect the ceasefire status. This morning there are reports that Iran seized an oil tanker for violations (one which was carrying Iranian oil). The Ocean Koi tanker attempted to “disrupt oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation.” (Tasnim) Trump’s 10% global tariff under the Section 122 was found unlawful by the US Court of International Trade, but the outcome was mostly irrelevant. A busy night with AI headlines: (i) NVDA and IREN announce strategic partnership on AI infra; (ii) CoreWeave fell on weak revenue guidance and higher spending forecast; (iii) SK Hynix reported that they have received offers to invest in chip production lines. (iv) TSMC posted 17.5% growth in April sales, slowest in six months. Oil (WTI Crude) is unchanged at $94.80; bond yields are 1-3bp lower the 10Y yield at 4.38%; The dollar headed for a second straight week of losses. precious metals erased earlier gains with ags all higher. Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). 

In premarket trading, all Mag 7 stocks are higher (Tesla +1.4%, Alphabet +0.05%, Nvidia +0.9%, Microsoft +0.03%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Apple +0.8%)

• Akamai (AKAM) rises 25% after the company announced that a leading frontier AI model provider had committed to $1.8 billion over seven years for its Cloud Infrastructure Services. The company also reported its first-quarter results and gave an outlook.
• Block (XYZ) gains 7% after the digital payments company forecast adjusted operating income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Expedia (EXPE) drops 7% after the online travel company forecast tepid gross bookings for the second quarter, with analysts pointing to macroeconomic pressures weighing on guidance.
• Fluence Energy (FLNC) rises 23% as Roth analyst Justin Clare raised the recommendation to buy on growing orders.
• Forward Air (FWRD) plunges 45% after the transportation services firm said it received no actionable proposals for a sale.
• JFrog (FROG) rises 14% after the software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as conservative. Analysts highlighted an acceleration in cloud revenue growth as a highlight.
• Innodata (INOD) climbs 39% after the professional services company boosted its revenue forecast for the full year.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) rises 7% after the drinks company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat the average analyst estimate. JPMorgan raised its price target.
• NLight shares (LASR) rise 13% after the maker of semiconductor laser products reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Rocket Lab (RKLB) climbs 7% as the space company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• Trade Desk (TTD) falls 12% after the advertising-technology company reported adjusted first-quarter earnings that missed expectations.
• Wendy’s (WEN) rises 4% after the fast-food chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In AI-related news, TSMC posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue expansion since October, highlighting the potential challenges of sustaining a torrid AI-fueled pace of growth. AI data center operator CoreWeave gave a disappointing forecast for the current quarter, sparking concerns about slowing growth at a time when the company is spending heavily to bolster its operations.  SoftBank Group has downsized plans for a $10 billion margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake after facing hesitation from some creditors, people familiar with the matter said. And a key company behind Thailand’s national AI effort is suspected of helping to smuggle billions of dollars worth of Super Micro Computer servers containing advanced Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers. In other corporate news, Toyota Motor forecast an abrupt drop in operating profit due to higher raw material costs from disruptions stemming from the Iran war. Citigroup is expanding its foreign-exchange business with hedge fund and private-equity clients as global trading volumes rise

US stocks rose at the end of a week in which optimism that the conflict is nearing an end and blowout earnings from major tech firms drove the S&P 500 to a succession of records. Hopes that oil flows would soon resume through the Strait of Hormuz also eased inflation worries, even as uncertainty remains over how soon the US and Iran can reach an agreement. US markets were the standout performers on a tough day for stocks elsewhere as clashes in the Middle East risked undermining efforts to secure a permanent end to the war. Stock indexes in Europe and Asia fell. Brent advanced as much as 2.9% before trimming the move to trade just above $100 a barrel. Treasuries rose ahead of April’s payroll numbers, with the two-year yield falling one basis point to 3.90%. UK government bonds advance, led by longer-dated maturities after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party. 

“For now, investor sentiment remains strong as the equity market is looking through high oil prices,” said Marija Veitmane, head of equity research at State Street Global Markets. “We continue to stress that the strength of earnings is heavily concentrated in IT sectors. These sectors are also the least exposed to physical supply chains and commodity pass-through.”

In the latest developments in the Middle East, Iran said it seized a tanker that appeared to be a sanctioned vessel carrying its own oil. Meanwhile, US forces targeted missile and drone launch sites and other military assets in Iran that they said were responsible for attacking US warships transiting the strait. The clashes came as the US awaited a response from Iran on a proposed deal to open Hormuz and end the war. President Donald Trump threatened more intense strikes if Iran refuses his terms.

A pause in worrying headlines out of the Middle East would allow markets and the Fed to focus on nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. New York for fresh clues about US economic resilience. Bloomberg Economics expects 57,000 jobs were added in April, slightly below sellside consensus for 65,000, while the “whisper” number is 71,000. Options pricing around the print continues to drift lower, with S&P 500 options implying only about a 0.6% move on the release (our full preview is here).

“I would expect a stronger-than-expected set of figures to keep Fed hawks in charge, without necessarily taming equity appetite,” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote. Softer-than-expected figures “could revive dovish Fed expectations and provide further support to equity valuations, provided that war headlines leave some room for reaction.”

Jobs are a hot topic in more ways than one this Friday. Block offered a sunnier outlook for profits and growth after orchestrating layoffs linked to AI that executives said were painful but necessary. Cybersecurity firm Cloudflare plans to cut one-fifth of workers as it accelerates its shift to an agentic AI-first operating model. Upwork intends to reduce its workforce by about 24%, while Fidelity is overhauling its tech and product teams.  In all cases “the increased adoption of AI tools is a huge factor,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli said on the recent bout of job cuts. He cautioned “this type of behaviour tends to be contagious.”

Meanwhile, investors flocked to cash and bonds last week and emerging market stocks saw their biggest outflows since January, according to Bank of America. The US had its sixth week of equity inflows at $9.3 billion, BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Elsewhere, aggregate retail investor equity flows on Citadel Securities’ platform surged back to elevated levels last week.  In other investing news, 43% of large cap active funds are outperforming their benchmarks, according to a BofA analysis of US mutual fund performance, better than the 29% that outperformed last year. Separately, some hedge fund categories, such as macro funds, appear to still have room to increase their equity exposures, according to JPMorgan strategists.

A pillar of support for equities may not be quite what it seems, according to Bloomberg Macro Strategist Simon White. Buyback announcements are surging this year. However, the risk of disappointment is rising as actual repurchases heavily lag the original commitments made, Simon writes. 

Jeffrey Gundlach said he was repositioning some of DoubleLine Capital’s funds for the scenario that the US government could restructure its debt in response to a potential future recession. A publicly-traded private credit fund managed by Goldman Sachs put two additional companies on non-accrual status in the first quarter, as the industry grapples with mounting concerns over exposure to businesses vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. 

With earnings season in its tail end, of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported thus far, 84% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while 11% have missed. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 falls 0.5%, led by declines in insurance and travel stocks while media and energy outperformed. Here are the biggest movers Friday: 

• Bechtle rises as much as 6.9% following its first-quarter results as Jefferies says the IT services provider’s positive momentum has continued
• Brembo shares rise as much as 8.5% and are set for a record weekly gain after robust first-quarter results that prompted Banca Akros to raise its recommendation on the Italian auto parts firm
• Ferrovial rises as much as 3.6%, the most in a month, after the infrastructure group beats first-quarter expectations, with US managed lanes driving performance and construction also seen as solid
• Pirelli advances as much as 3.4% after delivering an in-line performance in the first quarter and slightly boosting its revenue guidance for the full year
• Rheinmetall shares fall 2.7% on Tradegate versus Germany’s Thursday close after JPMorgan cut its rating to neutral from overweight and slashed its price target by almost 30%
• Deutsche Lufthansa falls as much as 2.7% after Barclays downgraded the airline to underweight from equal-weight, saying tailwinds from routes typically served via Gulf hubs are likely to fade as capacity returns
• Commerzbank falls as much as 2.4% after its latest earnings. Analysts say the lender’s upgraded targets are ambitious, but also viewed with some skepticism as the bank steps up its defense against a hostile takeover attempt by UniCredit
• Intertek shares fall as much as 7.9%, the most in two months, as the testing and inspection company rejects EQT’s latest takeover proposal of £58.00 per share in cash

Earlier, Asian stocks fell to trim weekly gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.6% following a two-day rally as some investors took profit ahead of Iran’s response to a US peace proposal. Samsung Electronics, TSMC and SoftBank weighed the most on the regional decline. Still, the index has risen more than 5% for the week and was poised for its longest winning streak since January, driven largely by a sustained tech rally. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has surged over 13%, its best week since late 2022. Across the region, markets saw renewed risk-off sentiment on Friday after the US struck military targets in Iran in response to attacks on three Navy destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz. Australia, Indonesia and Hong Kong were among the hardest hit.

In FX, the pound gains 0.4% after PM Keir Starmer said he had no plans to step aside as Labour leader after early results in local elections showed losses for his party; the dollar falls across the board. The Norwegian krone is leading gains among the G-10 currencies, rising 1.2%.

In rates, treasuries hold small gains in early US session, led by front-end and belly sectors as oil prices stabilize. Oil prices partially unwind Thursday’s rebound despite escalation of Middle East war, with US and Iran clashing near the Strait of Hormuz.  US yields richer by 1bp-2bp in belly of the curve with 5s30s spread steeper by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.37% is down 1bp with UK counterpart outperforming by around 5bp. Gilts outperform as UK Prime Minister Starmer vows to stay on despite election setback. Gilts rallied over early London session after Starmer said he’d remain as Labour leader despite the party’s election losses

In commodities, oil prices are little changed with Brent crude futures near $100 a barrel. Precious metals rise with spot silver up almost 3% and on course for a fourth day of gains. Bitcoin rises 0.5%.

Today's economic data slate includes April jobs report (8:30am), May preliminary University of Michigan sentiment and March wholesale trade sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (11:05am and 2:20pm). Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee are panelists at Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference (7:30pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.5%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.5%
• DAX -0.7%
• CAC 40 -0.6%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.37%
• VIX -0.1 points at 17.03
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1188.44
• euro +0.4% at $1.1769
• WTI crude -0.8% at $94.08/barrel

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump said Thursday that attacks on Iran after it targeted U.S. destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz were a "love tap," and said the ceasefire between the two countries is still in effect. ABC
• Iran is ramping up trade with China via rail to blunt the impact of a US blockade of its ports. The number of cargo trains going from Xi’an to Tehran has risen to one every three or four days from around one per week before the conflict BBG
• US prosecutors suspect a Thai AI company of helping smuggle Nvidia chips to China, with Alibaba one of multiple end customers, people familiar said. BBG
• The White House has invited a scaled-back CEO delegation to accompany President Donald Trump to Beijing next week, reflecting divisions in the administration on economic policy toward China and ‌limited expectations for the summit. RTRS
• Sir Keir Starmer has refused to quit after a disastrous night for Labour at the polls, insisting: “I’m not going to walk away . . . and plunge the country into chaos.” With the first results in, Labour is heading for the worst local election results by any party this century. FT
• A federal trade court ruled that President Trump didn’t have the authority to impose new global tariffs after a previous set of levies was struck down by the Supreme Court in February. The decision on Thursday from the Court of International Trade invalidated Trump’s attempt to impose a new 10% tariff on goods from virtually every nation by invoking authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act. WSJ
• Big Tech’s record $725bn AI investment strategy is beginning to strain the resources of America’s largest companies, leaving them with less cash left over this year than at any point in the past decade. The combined free cash flow of the four “hyperscalers” — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta — is expected to fall to roughly $4bn in the third quarter, according to Wall Street’s forecasts, down from an average of $45bn in each quarter since the Covid-19 pandemic six years ago. FT
• Anthropic is weighing raising tens of billions of dollars this summer to fund a vast expansion in computing capacity, in a move that would catapult it past rival OpenAI to a valuation of almost $1tn. FT
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russian forces struck Ukrainian positions during the night and shows no attempt to hold the cease fire.
• US VP Vance expressed concern to tech CEOs over new AI models which can autonomously find software vulnerabilities. The White House is considering an executive order to create a formal oversight process for advanced AI models and has asked Anthropic to limit access to Mythos for organisations managing critical digital infrastructure: WSJ
• Increased hyperscaler capex has come at the expense of buybacks, which fell by 64% year/year for the group during 1Q. The hyperscalers now allocate 20% of total spending to buybacks and dividends compared with an average of 34% from 2017-2022. We expect minimal hyperscaler buyback growth through 2027. Consensus estimates show hyperscaler capex amounting to 100% of cash flows from operations this year, which in turn leaves little room to return cash to shareholders without a sharp deceleration in capex growth, a large drawdown of cash balances, or a major increase in debt. Some of the buyback headwind from the hyperscalers will likely be offset by increased buyback activity among the beneficiaries of that capex, such as semiconductor firms: Goldman Sachs

Iran Latest: Reports surrounding a potential deal:

• Iran is reviewing the US response to the 14-point proposal and is expected to formally respond on Friday, according to CCTV citing Pakistani sources.
• Any agreement with Iran would be bad for Israel, even if it includes an agreement to eliminate enriched uranium, Israeli press reported citing an official.
• Iran and the US are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal, NYT reported. Three senior Iranian officials say Tehran and the United States are discussing a one-page plan for both sides to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities for 30 days while they try to reach a comprehensive deal. The talks over a short-term agreement are continuing, the officials said, with negotiators trading proposals over how to describe the framework for a potential permanent deal. The three Iranian officials said a key obstacle was the US demand for commitments in advance on the fate of Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
• "A diplomatic source told Al Arabiya: Ensuring the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.", Al Arabiya reports.

Iran Latest: Commentary following the US-Iran strikes:

• Iran's Top Joint Military Command said US violated the ceasefire by targeting Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Strait of Hormuz; Iran will respond powerfully and without the slightest hesitation to any attack.
• US President Trump said the Iran ceasefire is still on and that the US is negotiating with the Iranians; Pakistan asked the US not to do Project Freedom during the negotiations. On energy, said we do not need to export curbs on oil and fuel.
• US President Trump posted that there was no damage done to the three US destroyers that came under fire; states that Iran is led by lunatics and that the US will knock out Iran more violently if no deal is signed fast.
• US President Trump tells ABC that the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a 'love tap' and the ceasefire continues to be in effect.
• US military said US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and responded with self-defence strikes on Iranian military facilities; Iranian attacks were unprovoked but no US assets were hit; do not seek escalation.
• The situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal, according to Press TV.
• Saudi Arabia has not permitted the use of its airspace to support offensive military operations, Al Arabiya reported citing sources.
• There is a high state of alert in anticipation of retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah following the assassination of the Radwan Force Commander, Israeli Channel 12 reported citing sources.
• Saudi Arabia has imposed restrictions on some aspects of US activity related to military operations in the region due to fears of possible Iranian attacks without direct US support or response, ISNA reported citing a i24 sources report.

Iran Latest: Reports of overnight strikes:

• "US military attacked Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz, an American official told me. The American official claimed that the attacks do not constitute a renewal of the war with Iran", Axios' Ravid posted.
• A massive fire at the site of Iran's attacks last night; large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz, Musandam province, has moved; another big fire has been detected 30km west of Lark Island, Tasnim reported.
• UAE announces that air defence systems are responding to a missile threat.
• Hearing explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, ISNA reported.
• Reactivation of air defence in western areas of Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Several explosions were heard in Abu Dhabi, IRIB News reported.
• Explosion was heard in Abu Dhabi, Fars News reported citing Arab sources.
• Three American destroyers were attacked by the Iranian Navy near the Strait of Hormuz, Tasnim sources say.
• An explosion was heard in Minab, SNN reported.
• Further explosions heard in Bandar Abbas, Mehr news reported.
• Air defences have been activated in West Tehran, Mehr News reported.
• Air defences shot down two hostile drones over Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, Mehr News reported.
• Explosions heard in Qeshm due to the confrontation of defences with small birds, ISNA reported.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded entirely in the red as geopolitical tensions rose, with the US Military and the Iranian Navy exchanging fire. Despite US President Trump announcing that the ceasefire remains in place, bourses failed to see any positivity. ASX 200 opened on the softer side and extended lower, nearly wiping out the gains seen in the past 2 sessions. Real estate and Financials weighed on the index, with Macquarie being dragged down despite reporting FY earnings that beat estimates. Nikkei 225 pulled back from the ATH formed in Thursday’s session amid the negative risk tone. SoftBank has dragged the Nikkei lower after ARM tumbled on smartphone market weakness and AI chip supply concerns. Sony reported FY25/26 earnings, with operating income missing estimates, however announced a JPY 500bln share buyback programme. KOSPI slipped, as investors profit-take following the recent strength in the index, primarily driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng followed the broader risk-off tone, as Shanghai Comp. outperformed its Asia-Pac peers with only modest losses.

Top Asian News

• Japan intervened in the FX market during the May holidays, according to sources.
• Singapore is to implement new curbs on executive condos, making them fully privatised after 15 years, CNA reported.
• China's Finance Ministry conducts issuance of CNY 45.8bln to support the development of pre-school education, CCTV reported.
• Japanese S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Apr) 52.20 (Prev. 53.0).

European bourses (STOXX -0.7%) are almost entirely in the red, with sentiment today pressured by recent flare-ups between US-Iran, whereby US struck Iranian ports which led to retaliatory attempts from the Iranian side. Though, indices are attempting to clamber off lows, with markets focusing on President Trump downplaying the attacks, calling them nothing but a “love tap”, noting that the ceasefire remains in place. European sectors are entirely in the red, display a market fearful of the current geopolitical environment; with cyclical sectors (Travel & Leisure/Consumer Products) residing at the foot of the list, whilst Energy is amongst the top performers. As for key movers this morning: Commerzbank (-0.5%, in-line metrics, raised targets and plans to cut 3k jobs), IAG (-2.7%, strong metrics but cut FY26 capacity outlook; sees strong demand), Intertek (-3%, rejects EQT’s GBP 9bln offer) US equity futures are broadly modestly firmer this morning, in contrast to the downbeat mood in Europe. In terms of key pre-market movers: CoreWeave (-6.6%, Q1 profit miss, Q2 revenue guidance missed expectations, and it raised capex forecasts), Gilead (-0.8%, mixed guidance, despite beating Q1 sales expectations).

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer said he will not be walking away and will be PM into the next general election.
• UK PM Starmer said results do not weaken his resolve, and takes responsibility for outcome.
• Labour may end up losing less than 1500 council seats in England, which may come as some relief for No.10, Journalist Schofield writes citing a poll guru.
• Reform UK Leader Farage said his party is so far exceeding his election results predictions.
• UK's Milliband reportedly told PM Starmer he should consider setting out a timeline for his departure, via Times. The sources said Miliband made the suggestion during a private meeting with the prime minister about a fortnight ago.

FX

• DXY is on a softer footing after gaining in the prior session as geopolitics heated up. To recap. US and Iran had a brief skirmish, although the US later downplayed it and suggested the ceasefire is not broken, whilst Iran said the US broke the ceasefire, but said the situation around the islands has gone back to normal, although commentary from Iran has been somewhat sparse vs the US. Ahead, participants will be on the lookout for further geopolitical update, and then the US jobs report (full preview available in the Research Suite) and with a few central bankers on the docket, including Fed's Cook, Waller, Goolsbee and Bowman. DXY resides towards the bottom of a 97.90-98.27 range.
• GBP benefits from a softer USD and digests the initial results from the Local Election. The initial readout from the UK local elections is not as bad as some feared for Labour, potentially providing limited/temporary respite to PM Starmer. Reminder, numerous key councils are yet to report. GBP/USD towards the top end of a 1.3543-1.3622 range.
• EUR/USD is firmer and trades towards the upper end of a 1.1721-1.17736 range, underpinned by the softer Buck. In trade, President Trump said the EU had promised to deliver its side of the deal and cut tariffs to zero, adding the bloc has until July 4th or tariffs would immediately rise to higher levels.
• JPY is flat intraday vs the USD in a narrow 156.63-156.99 band following another volatile week, although the pair remains under its 100 DMA at 157.33. The pair consolidates in a tight range just shy of the 157.00 handle, as talks of FX intervention calmed, with Japanese markets looking ahead to US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s visit to Japan.
• Antipodeans post modest gains amid high-beta properties, a rebound in commodities, although gains are capped by the cautious tone across markets awaiting clarity on the US-Iran situation.

Fixed Income

• USTs began the European day near-enough flat. Since, as energy wanes a touch, the benchmark has lifted more convincingly into the green. However, the current 110-22 high is someway shy of Thursday's 111-03+ peak. For the US, the day is dominated by NFP, but of course, geopolitics remains in focus and we await an update on yesterday's activity which, according to the US, did not violate the ceasefire.
• Bunds spent the morning lower by around 20 ticks, as the residual global energy bid, Dutch TTF gains and the potential for elevated US tariffs from July kept yields modestly elevated. However, as above, the magnitude of this has waned across the morning thus far, with around half of that downside trimming, to a 125.72 high. But, as with USTs, still someway shy of Thursday's 126.14 best.
• Gilts initially opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to a 87.21 low, down by 33 ticks at most but just above Thursday's 87.13 base and by extension comfortably clear of 86.52 and then 85.76 from earlier in the week. Initial pressure in reaction to the late-Thursday geopolitical escalation, and as the UK local elections show a shift from Labour to Reform, alongside marked Conservative losses and a significant but somewhat less-than-expected move toward the Green Party (though, we await key London areas for more data). Note, we still have a lot of the count to go, with key areas reporting from 12:30BST onward; however, the scale of Labour losses is not as bad as feared and will likely provide PM Starmer with some respite.
• A point which, alongside Starmer confirming he will not resign and intends to lead the UK into the next general election, has allowed Gilts to move into the green and actually outperform peers with gains of nearly 40 ticks to a new WTD high of 87.89. Strength spurred by the market's preference for stability. However, we await the Manchester numbers around 12:30BST which could be a momentum for Burnham to set out his case. Followed by key councils from 16:00BST onward, including Starmer's own Camden council around 18:00BST, in addition to the Senedd and Holyrood. As such, the modest Gilt strength we are seeing and the easing of UK yields may yet prove fleeting in the days/weeks ahead.
• Australia sold AUD 1.0bln 1.25% 2032 AGBs: b/c 4.01x, average yield 4.7406%.

Commodities

• In geopolitics, US and Iranian forces exchanged major attacks near the Strait of Hormuz after Iran allegedly targeted three US Navy destroyers with missiles, drones, and fast boats; the US said it intercepted all threats and retaliated with strikes on Iranian military sites. The US military carried out strikes in Iran's Qeshm port and Bandar Abbas, according to Fox News, citing a US official. The official said it was not a restart of the war or the end of the ceasefire. The UAE was simultaneously hit by renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, most were intercepted by air defences, though several injuries and disruptions were reported. Despite the escalation, President Trump said the April ceasefire still stands, while warning that failure to reach a broader deal with Iran could lead to much heavier bombing and further regional instability. Meanwhile, Iran’s Press TV said conditions on Iranian islands and coastal cities near the Strait of Hormuz had returned to normal. Seemingly the lack of continued attacks seen as "more positive than feared", with energy initially gapping higher at the resumption of trade before gradually waning as attacks stopped.
• WTI and Brent futures waned from overnight highs, and now post incremental losses. WTI currently trades at the lower end of a USD 93.82-98.64/bbl range, with Brent hovering around USD 99.60/bbl, within a USD 99.55-102.92/bbl range.
• Dutch TTF has fallen back towards EUR 44/MWh from earlier prices north of EUR 45/MWh. Traders are on the lookout for clarity from the Iranian side on whether the ceasefire still stands and whether diplomacy will continue.
• Spot gold is firmer as the DXY eases with oil. The bullion trades towards the top end of USD 4,673-4,734.90/oz parameters, off yesterday's USD 4,775/oz. Gold also sees underlying support on renewed buying interest after the PBoC’s purchases, with China raising gold reserves for an 18th straight month in April, adding 260k ounces.
• Base metals are mostly firmer and benefit from the broader losses in the USD amid a lack of further US-Iran escalation following the initial skirmish. 3M LME copper resides towards the top end of USD 13,273.60-13,616.70/t.
• China to raise retail diesel and gasoline prices by CNY 310/Mt and CNY 320/Mt respectively from May 9th; part of regular price review, CCTV reported.
• Freeport Indonesia (FCX) has pushed back the full restart of its Grasberg copper mine by a year.
• Taiwan is reportedly finalising a 25-year US LNG deal valued at USD 15bln with Cheniere Energy (LNG).
• Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery (630k BPD) has returned to normal operations, according to reported.

Trade/Tariffs

• China and US are in communication on US President Trump's visit, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
• US reportedly suspects that a Thai firm smuggled chips to Alibaba (BABA) , Bloomberg reported.
• The US and South Africa have started preliminary discussions over potential resources deals including bilateral investments in mining, energy and infrastructure, FT reported citing sources.
• The US Trade Court has ruled against President Trump's 10% global tariffs.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 65k, prior 178k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 2.5k, prior 15k
• 8:30 am: United States Apr Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%
• 10:00 am: United States May P U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 49.5, prior 49.8
• 10:00 am: United States Mar F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%

Central Bank Speakers

• 11:05 am: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
• 2:20 pm: United States Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
• 7:30 pm: United States Fed’s Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee on Panel

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As we go to press this morning, markets have slipped back thanks to questions about whether the US-Iran ceasefire is holding. Indeed, there’s been a clear escalation in the last few hours, with the US striking targets in Iran after they fired on three US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. And in turn, Trump posted that “we’ll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently, in the future, if they don’t get their Deal signed, FAST!” So Brent crude is back up +1.58% this morning to $101.64/bbl, having been beneath $100/bbl for a good chunk of yesterday’s session. However, markets still aren’t pricing in the worst-case scenario, as Trump told ABC News that “the ceasefire is going. It’s in effect”, referring to the US strikes as a “love tap”.

Questions around the ceasefire have already had a market impact in Asia overnight, where all the major equity indices have lost ground. That includes the Nikkei (-0.69%), the KOSPI (-0.73%), Hang Seng (-1.17%), CSI 300 (-0.90%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%). Moreover, European equity futures are down, with those on the FTSE 100 (-0.70%) and the DAX (-0.87%) both lower, although US futures have picked up a bit after yesterday’s losses, with S&P 500 futures up +0.21%.

Prior to all that, Brent crude (-1.19%) had posted a modest decline yesterday to $100.06/bbl, but that was a decent recovery from the intra-day lows of $96/bbl given there were no obvious signs of progress towards a deal. Moreover, as reports of explosions in Iran came through, that pushed oil prices even higher, so whilst Brent crude spent much of the day beneath $100/bbl, it was just above that mark by the close.
These more negative headlines weighed on broader risk sentiment, leading the S&P 500 (-0.38%) to pull back from its record high. And on top of the geopolitical headlines, we also had a hawkish batch of US data, with numbers on the labour market and inflation both surprising on the upside. For instance, the NY Fed’s latest survey showed 1yr inflation expectations up to 3.64% in April (vs. 3.5% expected), which is the highest since September 2023. So that raised expectations about a more hawkish response from the Fed. And that came on top of strong labour market data, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 200k in the week ending May 2 (vs. 205k expected), which took the 4-week moving average down to a two-year low of 203.25k.

That hawkish newsflow continued with various Fed speakers. In particular, Boston Fed President Collins (a non-voter this year) said she agreed with the hawkish dissenters who didn’t want to include the easing bias in the statement. So that added to the sense there was wider scepticism around further rate cuts. We also heard from two of the hawkish dissenters. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said her own outlook was that “interest rates will be on hold for quite some time.” And Minneapolis President Kashkari said that “if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period of time, it may well be that the next move might need to be up in interest rates.” So investors priced in a more hawkish outlook, with markets pricing a 38% chance of a rate hike by March 2027 at the close, up from 21% the previous day. And in turn, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2yr yield (+4.6bps) up to 3.91%, whilst the 10yr yield (+3.8bps) rose to 4.39%.

This backdrop meant it was a tough one for equities as well, with the S&P 500 (-0.38%) falling back from its Wednesday record. Indeed, the losses would have been even bigger were it not for the Mag 7 (+0.71%) reaching another record. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.67%) saw its largest decline in almost four weeks, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.63%) struggled even more. And over in Europe, there were also broad declines, with the STOXX 600 (-1.10%) posting its biggest decline in over a month, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.02%), the CAC 40 (-1.17%) and the FTSE 100 (-1.55%).

Looking forward, we’ll get more data today with the US jobs report for April. That’s an important one, as Fed pricing has already shifted in a hawkish direction given the energy shock, and last month’s payrolls were at a 15-month high of +178k. This time round, our US economists are looking for payrolls to come in at +50k, which would actually mark the first back-to-back positive reading since May last year. Meanwhile, they see the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. 

Elsewhere today, the UK will be in focus, as we’ve just started to get the results from the local elections overnight. We’ve only got a few results so far, but the governing Labour Party have suffered heavy losses in the seats they were defending, whilst Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has seen major gains. Today, it’ll be important to watch what Labour MPs and cabinet ministers are saying, as gilt markets are focused on whether PM Keir Starmer will remain in post following the results. That’s because of expectations that a new Labour leader might ease the fiscal rules and raise gilt issuance, so when Starmer’s position has come into question, that’s coincided with selloffs for gilts.

Before all that, sovereign bonds were fairly steady across Europe yesterday, with the 10yr bund yield (+0.1bps) remaining at 3.00%. There had been more of a rally earlier in the session, but that unwound as oil prices moved higher again, with yields tracking those moves. So yields on 10yr gilts (+0.9bps) and OATs (+0.4bps) also saw a modest increase, although those on BTPs (-0.6bps) came down slightly. Otherwise, investor expectations of an ECB rate hike in June were also steady yesterday, with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a hike by the close, up from 79% on Wednesday.

Finally, there were a couple of noteworthy headlines on US trade yesterday. First, the 10% global tariff currently in place was found to be unlawful by the US Court of International Trade. That’s the one the administration had imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, after the Supreme Court ruled against the previous IEEPA tariffs earlier this year. But for now, at least, the Court of International Trade only blocked them from enforcing it against the companies that sued and Washington State. The second story was that Trump set a deadline of July 4 for the EU to “deliver their side of the Deal”, or tariffs would be raised.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US jobs report for April, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May, and German industrial production for March. Central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, the Fed’s Cook, Waller, Bowman, Daly and Goolsbee, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoE Deputy Governor Breeden.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 08:23

"Thermal Event" Triggers Service Disruptions At Amazon AWS Cloud Hub In Northern Virginia

Amazon Web Services said that recovery efforts are still underway after a "loss of power during a thermal event" disrupted a Northern Virginia data center on Thursday evening.

"Mitigation efforts remain underway to resolve the impaired EC2 instances and degraded EBS volumes in a single Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the US-EAST-1 Region," AWS wrote on its Service Health page, indicating that its operational issue for "Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (N. Virginia)" remained "impacted" as of early Friday morning.

AWS shifted traffic away from the affected zone for most services and told customers to use other Availability Zones in US-EAST-1, noting that data centers in other zones were unaffected.

"The work to bring additional cooling system capacity online, which will enable us to recover the remaining affected infrastructure in a controlled and safe manner, is taking longer than we had initially anticipated," AWS stated.

The AWS disruption in Northern Virginia caused Coinbase's services to be affected overnight.

On May 7th Coinbase experienced service disruptions. Here’s a quick summary of what happened:

→ Around 8PM ET, Coinbase systems flagged high error rates across multiple services.
→ We traced these errors to amazon failures in Availability Zone (use1-az4) in the AWS US-EAST-1…

— Coinbase Support (@CoinbaseSupport) May 8, 2026

AWS did not provide details about what caused the "thermal event" at one of its data centers in Northern Virginia.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/08/2026 - 06:55