Zero Hedge

Iran Issues 10 Million Rial Banknote Amid Soaring Inflation

Iran Issues 10 Million Rial Banknote Amid Soaring Inflation

As the Iran war rages, Tehran has rolled out a new 10 million rial banknote, its highest-ever denomination, as authorities seek to "manage" soaring inflation and meet demand for hard cash... but mostly to "manage" soaring inflation, similar to how Venezuela would add a new 0 to its currency every week in the late days of the Maduro ergime before everyone simply gave up. 

Banks, which have been targeted on at least one occasion by Western strikes, began distributing the new note this week, which is worth about $7, as Iranians waited in long lines at cashpoints to withdraw currency over fears electronic systems could fail. Many quickly ran out.

The new bank note is worth about $7 US dollars.

The new pink banknote features a vignette of the 9th-century Jameh Mosque of Yazd, while the back displays an image of the 2,500-year-old Bam Citadel. It is now the highest denomination in circulation, overtaking the 5mn-rial note introduced in early February, which at this rate will be equal to roughly $1 USD in a few weeks.

Iran’s central bank said that the bill was introduced “to ensure public access to cash”, adding that electronic systems - including debit cards, mobile and internet banking - would continue to serve as the main platforms for financial transactions, at least until the Mossad cripples all domestic electronic payments. 

Yet despite government assurances of a continuous supply of cash after the war broke out, banks are providing limited currency to clients seeking to withdraw funds.

“I waited my turn for an hour and the clerk said he could only give me 10mn rials. But when I made a fuss, telling them I had no money and needed cash, I got 30mn instead,” Maryam, an 80-year-old resident of Tehran, told the FT this week. “It’s not much but it can sustain me for a few days if the debit cards stop working.”

Iranians waiting at an ATM to withdraw currency; Getty Images

The new bill is the latest indication of how Iran’s economy is collapsing as the war enters its fourth week.

The US and Israel have targeted infrastructure including a major bank, adding to the strain for businesses already impacted by the constant bombardments and indefinite closure of Iran’s airspace. Imported items have become more expensive as trade routes have closed.

A building of Bank Sepah, which serves Iran’s armed forces alongside the wider public, was hit by a missile on March 11, further compounding public worries.

The bank said on Wednesday that access had been restored, allowing clients to use their cards for in-store shopping and at ATMs. Online banking services, it said, would resume soon. 

The economy was already under strain from years of US sanctions, declining oil revenues, persistently high inflation and systemic corruption - factors that have resulted in a steep devaluation of the rial. The currency had lost 40% of its value in the months that followed Israel’s 12-day war in June last year, with the economic malaise fuelling mass protests in January that were crushed in a brutal crackdown that killed tens of thousands 

It weakened further to a record low of 1.66mn rials per US dollar ahead of the start of the latest war on February 28, but had strengthened to about 1.5mn as of Friday. 

Iran's annual inflation was 47.5% in the month ending February 19, according to Iran’s statistical agency, but the true inflation is said to be orders of magnitude higher. 

Food and drink inflation surged to above 105% in the same period, after the government eliminated subsidized foreign currency for essential imports. Instead it started a food voucher program that grants 80mn Iranians monthly credit to purchase staples at designated stores.

Iran food and drink inflation has soared above 100%.

In November, Iran introduced a law to slash four zeros from the rial over a five-year period in an effort to simplify transactions and reduce the cost of printing money. On the new 10 million rial note, the final four zeros appear faintly while 1,000 is also printed in bold. This style, used for all new banknotes printed since 2019, is designed to help the transition.

Banknotes printed in Iran in recent years mainly showcase historical monuments. Some of the older, smaller banknotes depict Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of Iran’s revolution.

Demand for cash is usually already high at this time of year before Nowruz, the Persian new year, when many Iranians gift money to children and family members. 

The recent strengthening of the rial comes as foreign trade has reduced, Iranians have cancelled overseas trips and people in need of cash for urgent expenses exchange their foreign currency.

“Only those who have sold property or a car and don’t want to keep their money in rials are buying foreign currency,” one foreign exchange broker in Tehran said. “On the other hand, supply has also decreased a lot. Only those who urgently need money in these conditions are selling their foreign currency.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 15:30

Iran Threatens To Destroy Region-Wide Infrastructure As Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum Ticks Down, Mass Casualties In Southern Israel

Iran Threatens To Destroy Region-Wide Infrastructure As Trump's 48-Hour Ultimatum Ticks Down, Mass Casualties In Southern Israel Summary
  • Iran vows regional and US infrastructure will be "irreversibly destroyed" in response to Trump's 48-hour timeline to open Hormuz or else Iranian power plants will be obliterated.

  • Iran announces imposition a $2 million transit fee on 'non-enemy' ships wishing to transit strait.

  • Unprecedented damage and many dozens of casualties in Israel's south after tit-for-tat strikes on areas with nuclear plants.

  • Reports of US prepping diplomatic offramp plan but Iran says expanding war has effectively shut the door; Bessent says "50 days" of higher prices for 50 years of no Iran nukes, and "escalate to de-escalate."

*  *  *

Bessent on Meet the Press: 'Escalate to De-Escalate' 

Scott Bessent said US-Israeli strikes are focused on weakening Iran's fortified positions along the Strait of Hormuz as Donald Trump presses a deadline for Tehran to "fully open, without threat" the critical global shipping waterway. He stated the US will "take whatever steps it takes" to eliminate Iran's military capabilities, including its ability to project power abroad; however, it remains to be seen just how degraded Iran's missile program is.

"There has been a campaign… to soften up the Iranian fortificationsthat's going to continue until they are completely demolished… Sometimes you have to escalate to de-escalate," he asserted.

As the conflict enters its fourth week, and amid rising oil and gasoline prices which have intensified economic pressure at home, Bessent framed the surge as a temporary cost tied to a longer-term greater objective, stating: "Let’s just pick 50 days of temporary elevated prices… Prices will come off on the other side for 50 years of not having an Iranian regime with a nuclear weapon." But then the usual more open-ended caveats: "I don’t know whether it’s going to be 50 days. I don’t know whether it’s going to be a hundred days.As the US keeps going up the escalation ladder with Iran, will it be able to come down?

Threatened War on Power Plants Looms

As a reminder here's what President Trump threatened Saturday - so the clock is ticking - assuming he's ready to make good on the promise: "If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Trump wrote.

Iran has responded with its own vow of escalation in response. In a post on X, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned that critical infrastructure and energy facilities across the Middle East will be "irreversibly destroyed" if Iranian power plants are attacked. He wrote:

"Immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner, and the price of oil will remain high for a long time."

Unprecedented damage in communities in Israel's south from Iranian missiles. $2 Million Hormuz Transit Fee, Except For 'Enemy' Countries

By now it's clear that Iran's approach to the Strait of Hormuz has been to only allow select countries while targeting others' shipping and reportedly mining the waterway. An Iranian official said the strait is open to all vessels except those from "enemy" countries.

Iran state TV has further announced the imposition a $2 million transit fee on ships, with a senior lawmaker stating: "We have established a new regime governing the Strait after 47 years… We have to fund the war."

Antonio Guterres stated the UN is prepared to help reopen the strait, along with some Gulf countries - but there's still nothing in the way of any level of a practical military plan in place, given the obvious extreme risks.

The US is still considering plans to seize or blockade Kharg Island, which would be another massive escalation which some analysts have deemed 'suicidal' in terms of warships or any Marines sent that deep into Persian Gulf and strait waters.

Heavy Blows Traded: Damage in Israel is Unprecedented

US and Israeli forces continued strikes across Iran, including in Tehran, Karaj, Isfahan, Natanz, and Ramsar - while as we've been reporting, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization said the Natanz nuclear site was targeted in "criminal attacks."

This in turn resulted in Iran targeting Dimona and Arad for the first time of the war, causing roughly 100 injuries. The conflict has just entered week four and already they are trading strikes on nuclear plants. Central Israel has continued getting hit hard, with Iranian cluster munitions spreading bomblets across Tel Aviv and nearby areas. Fifteen people were injured there, one seriously. Additional impacts damaged residential areas in Jaffa and Petah Tikva.

Local reports say there are 88 injuries in Arad alone, including serious and moderate cases. Hospitals, including Soroka Medical Center and Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, treated dozens of wounded, including children. There are reports of growing anger and frustration inside Israel both at the government's underestimating what Iran's response would be like, and the apparent major failures of the Iron Dome defense system.

Mass casualties after large Iranian missiles on Arad and Dimona:

Benjamin Netanyahu has newly stated, "We’re responding with great force, but not on civilians. We’re going after the regime. We’re going after the IRGC, this criminal gang, and we’re going after them personally, their leaders, their installations, their economic assets. We’re going after them very strongly." As for Iran, a state broadcaster reported over 1,500 deaths from US-Israeli strikes, but the true toll may be significantly higher amid ongoing rescue efforts and the fog of war.

Iraq to Lebanon To Yemen: Regional Spillover & Proxy Activity

Drone and rocket attacks targeted a US diplomatic and logistics center near Baghdad International Airport, with multiple overnight strikes reported. Iran-backed Houthis have increased threats, and they are imminently expected to join the war, with the potential ability to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait (Red Sea). Analysts have repeatedly warned their entry into the conflict would expand it significantly, drawing in Red Sea shipping routes and regional actors.

Israel has meanwhile intensified operations in Lebanon, with strikes on southern suburbs of Beirut having killed over 1,000 people and displaced more than a million. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered accelerated demolition of homes in border villages: "Accelerate the demolition of Lebanese houses in the contact villages in order to thwart threats to Israeli communities,” applying tactics used in Gaza areas such as Rafah and Beit Hanoun," he said.

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia has expeled Iran's military attache and four embassy staff, giving them 24 hours to leave the country, over "repeated Iranian attacks" on the kingdom's territory. Riyadh and the UAE are inching closer to possibly joining the US-Israeli war against Iran, also as Trump and Netanyahu have called on other countries to enter a coalition.

Diplomatic Efforts and Conditions for Talks?

There's been a lot of chatter about setting up conditions for a potential offramp, even as Tehran has appeared to shut the door on any future talks, and while thousands of Marines transported on several warships are en route to the region.

The US is exploring a diplomatic track while continuing military operations, Axios has reported. There's obvious pressure on the US domestic front, where rising gas prices could spell serious trouble for Republicans ahead of next fall's midterm elections. Axios reviews of preparations:

  • Any deal to end the war would need to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and also establish a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles and support for proxies in the region.
  • There has been no direct contact between the U.S. and Iran in recent days, though Egypt, Qatar and the U.K. have all passed messages between the two, a U.S. official and two additional sources with knowledge said. Egypt and Qatar have informed the U.S. and Israel that Iran is interested in negotiating, but with very tough terms.
  • The Iranian demands include a ceasefire, guarantees that the war will not resume in the future, and compensation.

One big problem is that after a spate of top level assassinations of Iranian leaders, Washington doesn't know who in Tehran it would be negotiating with.

Via UChicago Professor Robert A. Pape

And given that on the US side Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are reportedly shaping potential negotiations, the Iranians are unlikely to want to have anything more to do with them. There are reports of indirect talk efforts via intermediaries including Egypt, Qatar, and the United Kingdom, but the reality is that Iran may have been pushed too far - into existential survival mode - and is ready to essentially 'fight to the death'.

*  *  * THREE DAY FLASH SALE

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 15:00

Don Lemon Claims US Does 'Very Same Things' To Protesters As Iran... Which Slaughtered 1000s

Don Lemon Claims US Does 'Very Same Things' To Protesters As Iran... Which Slaughtered 1000s

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Don Lemon has hit rock bottom in his radical spiral, openly claiming the United States treats protesters the exact same way as Iran — the regime that massacred thousands of anti-government demonstrators in just three months.

This jaw-dropping comparison arrives as the Trump DOJ pursues prison time against Lemon and the leftist mob he embedded with during their invasion of a Minneapolis church — the very disruption he hailed as protected “journalism.”

On the “This is Gavin Newsom” podcast, Lemon, via his shitty internet connection, responded to discussion of an FBI raid on a Washington Post reporter by insisting America was forfeiting its moral high ground in the conflict with Iran.

Reporters have privilege. It’s like an attorney. And so you have to be very careful about those things. And we cannot lose those things,” Lemon said. “Otherwise we are going to lose the First Amendment. We’re going to lose the freedom of the press because part of that is having sources and being able to be trusted by those sources that you’re not going to give any information away that they give you.”

He continued, “So we cannot lose those norms and those traditions because otherwise we’re no better than a country that we’re at war with right now. And we are saying that Iran shoots protesters. Well, so do we. And we’re over there because Iran jails reporters or doesn’t have free speech. And that makes us no better than them — if we are acting and doing the very same things that they’re doing, then what sort of moral authority do we have to be able to be there and in a war and quite frankly killing people?”

This is the same Don Lemon arrested by federal agents on January 29 over the January 18 incident at Cities Church in St. Paul, where he filmed himself inside the sanctuary with anti-ICE rioters from the Racial Justice Network who stormed the service, chanting and forcing families with children into freezing weather.

Lemon has repeatedly defended the stunt. “I didn’t even know they were going to this church until we followed them there. We were there chronicling protests… Once the protest started in the church, we did an act of journalism,” he insisted.

He later added, “The whole point of it is to disrupt and make people uncomfortable.” And, “Watch this guy here, look, he’s hugging his kid, and you know, I imagine it is uncomfortable and traumatic for the people here. It’s uncomfortable and traumatic for the people here, but that’s really… that’s what protesting is about.”

The Trump DOJ is charging Lemon and the mob with conspiring to violate civil rights protections for worship. Deputy AG Todd Blanche made clear the consequences: “They’d face a jury. If they’re convicted, they will go to PRISON!”

President Trump weighed in directly: “A small group of elderly ladies were protesting at an abortion clinic and were given 40 years in prison for violating the FACE Act. I would like to see the same kind of sentence for Don Lemon and the people that broke into that church and did that during services.”

As we’ve previously highlighted, Lemon once sounded exhausted by race-baiting, telling an interviewer, “Sometimes, I get so tired of talking about it. I wanna just go, ‘This is over. Can we move on?’”

Those days vanished. He now rails against “white Christian-hating” targets, dismissing concerns over South African farmers as “this South African farmer bullshit, which is the most blatantly obvious racist shit ever,” and slamming public displays of faith as “religious nationalism on full display” and “demanding submission.”

The contrast could not be clearer. Iran ranks near the bottom of global freedom indexes. America, even with tough enforcement of immigration laws and leak investigations, remains a constitutional republic protecting speech and worship. Lemon’s rant exposes the left’s desperation.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 15:00

'Punish Iran': Saudi Arabia & UAE Inch Closer To Joining US-Israeli War

'Punish Iran': Saudi Arabia & UAE Inch Closer To Joining US-Israeli War

Via Middle East Eye

Earlier this month, Elbridge Colby, a senior official in the US Department of War, held a call with Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, who is also the brother and top adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Iran’s attacks on US bases in the Gulf were heating up, and the US needed expanded access and overflight permissions. Saudi Arabia agreed to open King Fahd Air Base in Taif, in Western Saudi Arabia, to the Americans, multiple US and western officials familiar with the matter told Middle East Eye.

The base is important because it is farther from Iranian Shahed drones than Prince Sultan Air Base, which has come under repeated Iranian attacks. Taif is also close to Jeddah, the Red Sea port that has become a critical logistics hub since Iran effectively took control of the Strait of Hormuz. Current and former US officials tell MEE that if the Trump administration is preparing for a longer war on Iran, Jeddah may be critical for sustaining US armed forces. Thousands of US ground troops are en route to the region from East Asia. 

Saudi Arabia’s decision to expand base access, current and former officials say, underscores a shift in how the kingdom and some other Gulf states are responding to the US-Israeli war on Iran. "The attitude in Riyadh has shifted towards supporting the US war as a way to punish Iran for strikes," a western official in the Gulf told MEE.

via AFP

Trump and the Saudi crown prince have been holding regular phone calls for the last three weeks, the US and western officials told MEE. The UAE has also told the US that it is geared up for a long war, putting no pressure on Washington to wrap up the conflict soon.

In a phone call earlier this month, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed told his counterpart, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that the UAE is prepared for the war to last up to nine months, the US official told MEE. 

Differing Gulf perspectives 

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar lobbied US President Donald Trump against attacking Iran. While they host US military bases, the states insisted that they not be used as launchpads when the US joined Israel on 28 February to attack Iran. Despite this, the Gulf states have paid the heaviest price for the US’s decision to go to war. 

The UAE alone has intercepted 338 ballistic missiles and 1,740 drones since the start of the war. Qatar suffered the worst attack of any Gulf state despite being a critical mediator that has consistently focused on de-escalation. 

Iran responded to an Israeli attack on its South Pars gas field this week by launching missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery. The damage will take three to five years to repair and affects 17 percent of Qatar’s gas production, according to Qatari energy minister Saad al-Kaabi.

Some states, like Oman, have said that Israel hoodwinked the US into launching an unlawful attack on Iran. There is also anger at the US over its value as a security guarantor

The US has been unable to replenish the Gulf states' Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defence interceptors. The US bases in the Gulf, meant to protect the Arab monarchies, have been targeted. Meanwhile, oil and gas exports have ground to a halt.

Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi wrote in The Economist this week that this is "not America's war" and that Washington’s allies needed to make clear to the US that it was dragged into a conflict with little to gain.

Busaidi’s remarks contrasted with those of Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan. After Riyadh and the port of Yanbu were attacked by Iran, he delivered a blistering message to the Islamic Republic. One former US intelligence official described it as “fighting words”. Farhan said Iran had committed “heinous attacks” which “are an extension of [Iran’s] behavior that is based on extortion and sponsoring militias, threatening the security and stability of neighbouring countries”.

"Saudi Arabia has repeatedly tried to extend its hand to the Iranian brothers…but the Iranians did not reciprocate,” he said, adding that the kingdom reserved the right to take “military action”.

While no one in the Gulf wanted a war with Iran, the Gulf states are approaching the conflict from varied, evolving perspectives as it drags into its fourth week, experts say. Saudi Arabia is the largest country in the region, and like the UAE, it has ambitions to project hard power abroad. In fact, Saudi Arabia attacked the UAE’s allies in Yemen just before the war on Iran erupted.

Oman has carved out a niche for itself as a mediator. As one of the countries least hit by Iran in the region, the relative security of its capital, Muscat, is also being noticed by expatriates leaving Dubai. “There is a divide emerging in the Gulf,” Bernard Haykel, a professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, who speaks with the Saudi Arabian crown prince, told MEE.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE were neutral before this war. But as they have been attacked, they have come to the realization that they cannot live with this hardline Iranian regime next door, which can, at a moment’s notice, extort the region by closing the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

The Saudi capital, Riyadh, and the kingdom’s energy infrastructure have been targeted by Iran. But the conflict is widely seen in the region, and increasingly inside the US, as an Israeli power grab. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said that Israel is guilty of committing genocide in Gaza. The Israeli war on the enclave has killed over 72,000 Palestinians since it started in October 2023. 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gloated about the war in a press conference on Thursday. He said that the solution to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure was for Arab Gulf monarchs to build new pipelines through the desert to Israel, which would effectively give Israel veto power over their energy exports.

“What’s happened in the last 24 hours is taking us to a different phase in the war. It has been testing our patience and restraint for the last three weeks," Bader al-Saif, an expert at Kuwait University, told MEE. “With that said, we can’t lose sight of Israel’s role. They want to bring the Gulf into this war,” he added. “And let’s be clear, there is no clear exit strategy from the US.”

Ibrahim Jalal, an expert on the Gulf and Arabian Sea security, told MEE that Gulf monarchs face a torturous balance as they try to draw their red lines against Iranian attacks and respond to US demands while pushing for de-escalation. “The Gulf states do not want to be counted in the history books of siding in a US-Israeli war against a so-called Islamic neighbor,” he said.

Taboos broken

At the same time, Jalal said that Iran’s attacks are a flagrant violation of Gulf sovereignty and put the region into uncharted territory. “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has broken all taboos now,” he said. “The Gulf needs to act within defensive doctrine,” he said.

Iran has accused some Gulf states of allowing their territories to serve as launchpads for US strikes. That is why even providing additional logistical support to the US is sensitive for Saudi Arabia. However, the kingdom is being pressed by the US to join the war on Iran by launching offensive strikes, US and Arab officials tell MEE.

The New York Times has verified video that shows ballistic missiles being launched from Bahrain in the direction of Iran. It’s not clear who was firing the missiles. The small Gulf state is a close partner of Saudi Arabia’s.

Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence analyst, told MEE that Riyadh is working to “thread the needle” between getting sucked into the conflict and establishing deterrence. “Saudi Arabia asserts deterrence by warning Tehran of retaliation as we have seen…[by] reserving military options, while prioritising diplomacy [and] ongoing backchannel contacts with Iran,” he told MEE.

He added that Riyadh is “pushing de-escalation to restore pre-war rapprochement gains without full war entanglement”. Saudi Arabia reestablished diplomatic ties with Iran in March 2023, after years of adversarial relations, in a deal brokered by China.

Saudi Arabia has endured Iranian attacks, but has not suffered on the same scale as the UAE. The Houthis, Iran’s allies in Yemen, have also refrained from attacking the kingdom.

Abdulaziz Alghashian, a Saudi security expert and senior nonresident fellow at the Gulf International Forum, told MEE that the kingdom and other Gulf states faced “a dilemma”. “Ending the war is generally the preferred option,” he said, but even if the conflict stopped tomorrow, Iran’s escalation dominance over the Gulf would linger. “Not only do we really need to create deterrence, we need to create a precedent for post-war,” he said.

“Iran has proved that it can create a lot of havoc. Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC] states don’t want to be seen to be too restrained, so there needs to be some kind of precedent,” he said. Alghasian said Saudi Arabia is aware that launching offensive operations against Iran could "open up a can of worms".

Despite US claims that Iran's military is severely degraded, the Islamic Republic has been able to conduct pinpoint strikes on US bases. It is far from isolated. Media reports say it is receiving targeting intelligence from Russia. MEE revealed that it has received air defence systems and offensive weapons from China.

Iran's speedy retaliation on Gulf energy assets after Israel's strike on South Pars this week showed its command and control is intact, the former US intelligence official told MEE. 

Gulf monarchs are also aware that their militaries are unable to inflict any more damage on Iran than the US and Israel are currently, and that a "symbolic" action in the name of deterrence would just invite more reprisals, Jalal said. "Action by Gulf states is not going to tip the military balance in favor of the US and its allies at this stage,” he added.

But better access to Saudi Arabian bases is key, Haykel, at Princeton University, told MEE. "It's true that Saudi Arabia's air force and missiles are unlikely to change the equation, but what can change the equation is if the US Air Force flies out of Dhahran instead of an aircraft carrier," he added. The coastal city is just 130 miles from Iran's coast. 

Watching the Strait of Hormuz

For starters, analysts say, the Gulf states can better arrange their defenses together. This is important, as the Gulf questions the value of US security guarantees. The Trump administration has issued a waiver for Gulf states to transfer Patriot interceptors among themselves without the normal US approval.

“What the GCC now needs is to act as one bloc on the defensive line, to mobilize procurement collectively,” Jalal said.

Beyond allowing the US greater access to bases, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could look to play a role in the Strait of Hormuz, experts say. "How do you define offensive and defensive? I think that has been the debate in the last twenty-four hours," al-Saif, at Kuwait University, said. "The Gulf could play the Iranian game and restrict them from moving oil out of Hormuz. But that is not part of our worldview," he said. "We are reliable."

The Trump administration has been rebuffed by Nato and Asian allies to participate in an operation to open the waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of global energy passes. Their involvement would allow Trump to demonstrate regional buy-in as US warplanes and attack helicopters bombard Iran’s coast.

Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president, told the US Council on Foreign Relations this week that the UAE could join a US operation to wrest control of the waterway back from Iran.

Alghashian, the Saudi analyst, told MEE that taking “lethal defensive measures” could be next. “For me, the precedent could be made in the Strait of Hormuz.”

*  *  * HIT IT LIKE YOU USED TO

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 14:00

Another Manic Monday Coming

Another Manic Monday Coming

Submtted By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

I expect that we will see a lot of “green dots” on the Bloomberg Terminal Sunday night, as there was almost no asset (other than energy) up on Friday. I do know that my Monday will start bright and early, at 5am on CNBC. Away from that everything is a bit up in the air.

There are headlines that can push us in either direction. Some developments that seem good, some that seem bad, some that seem weird, and some that are just downright confusing and/or contradictory.

Transiting the Strait

There seem to be three possibilities to transiting the Strait:

  • Please see Thursday’s SITREP U.S. Expected to Conduct Strait Transit This Month. On Saturday morning Admiral Cooper, in a video on X, said “Iran’s ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz is degraded.” The report went on to list other actions being taken to knock out the capability of Iran to target ships in the Strait. This fits Academy’s view that the U.S. is actively taking steps to prepare for safe transit.

  • More countries have signed the Joint Statement expressing a “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.” A bit “wishy-washy” at best, and went to great pains to reference the United Nations and International Energy Agency, and avoid referencing America. Not sure if this does much, but it is a step in the right direction. If we are going to stick to the “Manic Monday” theme, this reminds me of the line, “blame it on the train, but the boss is already there.”

  • Mounting “chatter” that Iran is “selling safe passage” for about $2 million per ship. I did get some secondhand confirmation from a trusted source that these discussions are in fact occurring. Unclear how effective they will be.

All of these things are “encouraging” in terms of shipping. A U.S.-led (or even solely U.S.) effort to encourage ships to transit the Strait is the most promising in terms of being a “real” solution. The Iranian “insurance” plan seems dubious at best, and not great for the world.

Unfortunately, it is being widely reported that Iranian leadership is steadfast on trying to keep the Strait from being transited by global shipping and is unwilling to even negotiate on the topic.

Polymarket has several opportunities to “predict” things:

  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by the end of April. Only 27% down from 50% as recently as March 12th.

Lots of opportunity for stocks to do very well if that is really reflective of what is being priced into the market. I think it is too small of a market to be particularly useful, but lately it does seem that some “obscure” prediction markets get volume and pricing that indicates someone “knows” something – so worth at least keeping an eye on.

Boots on the Ground, or Mission Accomplished?

Marine expeditionary forces are on the way. There has been a lot of discussion about the potential to “seize” Kharg Island (now that Iran’s military facilities have been hit hard). Or to possibly clear Iranian forces close to the Strait. There is a lot of debate on what taking Kharg Island would mean. One school of thought is that controlling the ports would rapidly force Iran to the table as their primary source of income and leverage would be in U.S. hands. Others see a lot of risks to the plan, from hardening resolve, to still requiring the Strait to be open, to how much money/currency does Iran have and how long could they hold out, even if they were not able to sell another barrel of oil? I’m more in the latter camp, but we can debate this option later this week as the Marines arrive.

Also, why spend much time thinking about boots on the ground, when the President has been posting on Truth Social “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran.”

This statement could be a negotiating tactic. Maybe it is just to lull Iran into a false sense of security (the initial attack on Iran occurred during ongoing negotiations). Maybe it is just a “trial balloon” to see how people (voters) and possibly markets respond?

Literally, both extremes - “boots on the ground” and “we won, time to go home” - are on the table. It really could be a Manic Monday.

Un-Sanctioning, De-Jonesing, and Releasing

In the past week or so, the administration has:

  • Taken off sanctions on Russian oil. This certainly helps keep the price of oil lower than it would be otherwise, though I suspect most of the oil still winds up going to China and India, at less of a discount. At the same time, I would be very concerned about what this means for Russia if I’m either Ukraine or the EU. Secretary of War Hegseth has been pointing out how any lack of inventory in the U.S. military is a direct result of giving weapons to Ukraine. If Europe isn’t already thinking about the need to potentially “go it alone” against a wealthier Russia, they should be. It might not get to that point, but that is certainly one message that can be taken from this very “transactional” administration.

  • Removed sanctions on Iranian Oil “on the sea.” The Treasury Secretary made this announcement and referenced 140 million barrels that will now be without sanctions. That is a big “release” of oil, but I’m told by oil experts that while the amount at sea is around that, as much of 100 million barrels is already spoken for (largely by China) and is in transit. So, it might be “only” 40 million barrels. If one goal of seizing Kharg Island is to apply maximum economic leverage, this move seems to give Iran more wiggle room. In the aftermath of this, it will be interesting to see how Iran has funded itself? Presumably not in dollars, so in yuan? Bitcoin? Barter?

  • A 60-day suspension of the Jones Act. This basically allows any ship to transit goods between two U.S. ports. It is viewed by many, including me, as a potential first step towards export controls. The U.S. is not designed (currently) to use all of the oil, gas, LNG, diesel, etc. that it produces domestically. Pipelines aren’t developed for that. The Jones Act has made it unprofitable to do that. This allows some of that to occur, helping keep oil prices low. There is a limit to how effective it can be without export controls (and I’m not a big fan of export controls, but it is something we should watch).

    • The U.S. price for any energy product, with no export controls, is basically the Global Price minus Freight Costs minus some “Inertia” (where “Inertia” is existing relationships, agreements, etc.). So, as “global” prices rise, U.S. prices will rise, because the drillers, refiners, etc., will make more money selling it overseas if prices don’t rise domestically. It is economics 101, so we will see what else gets implemented to keep domestic prices lower if they continue to rise across the rest of the world.

  • Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases. I have not done the work, but it sounds like the U.S. released almost 90 million barrels of oil. Since there is only excess capacity to load about 25 million barrels a month, the release gives us some breathing room, until June or so (3 to 4 months). There is more to be released, though there is some limit, as apparently some amount of oil needs to stay in the reserves to keep the facilities’ structural integrity intact. Europe has supposedly been slower on releasing their supplies, but that is possibly because they are worried it will get bought elsewhere, so they will bleed out their reserves more “judiciously.” Europe’s lack of energy independence is once again being highlighted! The President did admonish the leader of Scotland for buying North Sea oil from Norway, and wind turbines from China, while curtailing their own drilling in the North Sea. How long before Europe gets the ProSec™ message?

  • No relief on tariffs. I would have put this in play, at least for some things (energy, fertilizer, etc.) but I was never a huge fan of the broad application of tariffs in any case.

Airbus for Drones

According to Wikipedia, Airbus was created in 1970 as a consortium of European aerospace companies to produce wide-body aircraft to compete with American built airliners. If I was in the EU, I’d be pounding the table for a drone equivalent of Airbus:

  • It is quite clear that drones are effective. They have their limitations (both on the hardware and software sides), but they can certainly play a meaningful role in deterrence and defense (as well as provide offensive capabilities).

  • They are cheap and relatively easy to make. Making a 5th generation jet is extremely difficult. Ditto for aircraft carriers and capital ships. Even modern missile systems are expensive and require highly specialized machinery. Take a bunch of factories that used to make cars (or other things) and ramp up drone production. A drone factory for the Ukrainian Army was recently opened in the U.K. I see great difficulty (and that is being kind) in the EU developing a fighting force with the equipment they have any time soon (like in the next 5 years). A fleet of drones and unmanned surface vessels that is enough to give Putin some pause seems far more plausible.

  • The “consortium” construct is important as it would hopefully remove some of the national interests that already impair Europe’s efforts to rearm themselves quickly and with some degree of compatibility.

Possibly a non sequitur but I want to invest in companies that might fit this sort of model as it seems to be an obvious choice, and eventually, usually after a lot of whining and moaning, and a couple of near-catastrophic failures, Europe does the obvious thing. (The European Debt Crisis from the beginning to “whatever it takes” seems to fit this path well).

The U.S. is Neither an Oasis Nor a Mirage

As brent crude soared higher than WTI (and grades of crude most of us have rarely heard of skyrocketed even more), the U.S. equity markets seemed to treat the U.S. as an “oasis.” We already mentioned that even with energy independence, we will see higher prices along with the rest of the world (unless we go to some form of export control). So, we are not immune. But we do have advantages - hence we are neither an oasis (really good), nor a mirage (all fake).

The links to the U.S. are real and will hurt:

  • Somewhere around 40% of the revenue generated by Fortune 500 companies comes from overseas. If Europe and Asia are struggling, it will impact companies here.

  • While the products might be American, many are manufactured elsewhere and are subject to supply disruptions, which would further impact profits for U.S. companies.

  • Those countries went out of their way not to mention the U.S. in their “letter,” which makes me wonder, again, do U.S. brands still have the same “cache” for non-American consumers?

  • Interest rates have spiked across the globe. The cost of everything, everywhere has gone up with this pretty dramatic move in yields. The U.S. 2-year yield went from 3.38% to 3.9% in 3 weeks. U.K. yields are incredibly jealous of that “strong” performance – as they rose 100 bps in the same period!

Ironically, and somewhat par for the course in this “stop-loss” driven market, Private Credit outperformed even as markets probably should have started adding global recession risks to the reasons to be concerned about private credit. But it seems that everyone was so underweight that even a realistic issue didn’t cause much/any new pain.

Urea and Limp Mode

In the long list of “knock-on” effects from the slowdown in goods from the Middle East, we can add another “risk” – DEF. Diesel exhaust fluid is used in diesel engines to reduce harmful emissions. Since 2010 (or so), if a diesel engine doesn’t have enough DEF, the vehicle is restricted to going 5 to 15 mph (limp mode). Supposedly the vehicle can be reprogrammed, but this is yet another thing to highlight regarding the quirkiness and complexity of supply chains and products. Oh, I almost forget, urea is about 33% of DEF. Gulf urea costs have almost doubled since the start of the year.

Not trying to make a big deal about this (unlike helium for semiconductors), but thought it would provide a nice break, and I always enjoy learning something new.

NI CHEM Majeure

I need to find some better hobbies than checking out Bloomberg for stories containing “Force Majeure” but it is getting more worrisome by the day.

If you go to Google Trends it is pretty clear that others are starting to be fascinated with this as well.

Already Too Late?

It is already precarious for Asia (ex-China), the Middle East itself, and Europe. The costs, potential supply chain disruptions, AND higher rates (when many mortgages are floating rate) seem to be a recipe for recession.

A resolution this week, or maybe even next, and maybe we scrape by. Maybe the U.S. is still out of range for a recession, but a recession was barely a gleam in the eye of any “doomer” a month ago, and that risk now has to enter the conversation.

Risks to the global economy are rising. While the U.S. is in much better shape (we were in better shape before the conflict and have more robust protection against the new problems created by the conflict), that doesn’t mean we don’t have risk (we are not a mirage, but we are not an oasis either).

Yields scare me right now.

The moves don’t seem to make sense in the context of higher oil prices. Yes, higher oil prices should impact yields, but by this much?

We saw 2s vs 10s flatten (which makes some sense, if higher prices will slow demand over time), but on Friday, 10s underperformed.

I am not sure the consumer is in a position to do well in this rising rate environment. Again, private credit didn’t seem to care on Thursday and Friday (and I had recommended being long those sectors recently, because too much pessimism was being priced in). I think they should care as the risk of a slowing economy with potential supply chain hiccups is a real risk here.

Bottom Line

I wish it was Sunday, 'cause that’s my fun day.

Okay, it is Sunday, but it is certainly not my fun day. Nor has it been for the past few weekends (though to be honest, deep down, I enjoy these stressful times).

Manic can be good.

By the time this makes it to our website, and you see it distributed, we might have some clarity one way or the other. We are likely to continue to be affected by dueling headlines.

There are still plenty of paths to a really strong week for markets, especially if the “winding down” messaging comes to fruition with a resolution in the Strait.

There are other ways we can see progress that might not give us a “manic” rebound, but a rebound nonetheless.

Unfortunately, there are plenty of paths that lead to more problems and some that could lead to a manic week, and not in a good way.

I do believe that as we move down the road, in a week or two, markets won’t react to positive headlines, as the “fear” that it is already “too late” gets priced into markets.

I’d love to say “buy Treasuries” but we seem to have broken some resistance and it is difficult to justify the size of the move solely on the economics of what is occurring in the Middle East.

I guess my “bottom line” is cautious for now, but be prepared to be very bullish, though any thought of being bullish will diminish as the days go by if we don’t see progress in getting us off the current path. The current path, as it goes on, will make it “too late” for some economies, and even if the U.S. can avoid the worst of it, it won’t be great for earnings (and hence the stock market). Rates seem to be telling such a different story that bonds seem like a “screaming” buy here, but that too seems dangerous.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 11:40

What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't?

What Do Bonds Know That The Stock Market Doesn't?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Most investors spend their time watching the S&P 500. That’s a mistake, because the credit market is the real “tell.” The bond market has been whispering a warning for weeks now, and credit spreads are now shouting it. As of this writing, the CDX Index, a benchmark measure of credit default swap spreads, has climbed to a nine-month high while the S&P 500 sits within 5% of its all-time peak. Over the past 20 years, every time that combination appeared, a bear market followed. Every single time.

That’s a track record worth taking seriously, and credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress points that often precede stock market corrections.

The chart shows the annual rate of change in the S&P 500 market index versus the yield spread between Moody’s Baa corporate bond index (investment grade) and the 10-year US Treasury Bond yield. Rising yield spreads consistently coincide with lower annual returns in the financial markets.

The reason is that credit is the lifeblood of the economy. Businesses borrow to operate, and consumers borrow to spend. As such, when the cost of that borrowing rises, particularly the premium lenders demand to extend credit to riskier borrowers, it signals that the economy is under stress. That “stress” directly affects forward earnings estimates and increases the likelihood of a valuation repricing.

The “Junk to Treasury” spread is the clearest expression of this dynamic. Investors who buy high-yield bonds, the ones with a meaningful chance of default, should demand a premium above the risk-free rate offered by U.S. Treasury bonds. When that premium compresses, it signals that investors are comfortable speculating, willing to reach for yield without demanding adequate compensation for the risk they’re accepting. When the premium expands, the mood has shifted. Lenders are getting nervous. Credit conditions are tightening. And historically, tighter credit conditions have preceded more challenging environments for stocks.

This isn’t a theoretical relationship; it has repeatedly appeared in the data for decades. The bond market (CDX) prices risk continuously across thousands of issuers and maturities. It’s harder to talk up than equities, and it’s not susceptible to the same retail-driven momentum that can keep stock prices elevated long after the fundamental picture has deteriorated.

When credit spreads widen, investors should pay attention.

What The CDX Is Telling Us Now.

The chart from Sentiment Trader below tells the story as clearly as any amount of prose could. The top panel tracks the S&P 500 since 2007. The middle panel shows the CDX Index of credit default swaps. The bottom panel shows where those spreads stand relative to their 189-bar range, essentially a percentile reading of how elevated they are relative to recent history. (Red markers indicate instances where CDX spreads hit 9-month highs while the S&P 500 is within 5% of its high.)

Notice that each red arrow marks a moment when CDX spreads reached a nine-month high while stocks remained near their all-time highs. The 2007 signal preceded the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. The 2015 signal preceded a sharp correction and an extended period of volatility. The 2022 signal arrived just before the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign drove the S&P 500 down 25%. And now, in early 2026, the signal has triggered again.

“This has been one of the more important divergences we’ve been tracking recently. CDS is pushing to a 9-month high even with equities near highs, effectively tightening financial conditions. Historically, this setup has been unstable: about half the time it led to sharp drawdowns, while the rest saw either mild pullbacks or continued gains.” – Sentiment Trader

The range-rank reading in the bottom panel is particularly instructive. It shows that current CDX spread levels are not a minor blip, but are registering near the upper end of their recent historical range. That’s not statistical noise, but a market pricing in genuine credit stress. The table below summarizes the four instances over the past two decades where CDX spreads hit nine-month highs while the S&P 500 traded within 5% of its peak. The subsequent market outcomes speak for themselves.

Does this mean the current situation will devolve into a bear market? Not necessarily, but history suggests the risk is elevated enough to warrant investors’ attention. It is also worth noting that the magnitude of the subsequent declines varied considerably, from the catastrophic 2008 to 2009 bear market to the more contained 2015 correction. That is due to the severity of the credit impact on the underlying economy. However, they all shared a period of elevated credit spreads that the equity market initially chose to ignore.

So far, this “time is not different.”

The Counterargument Is Not Convincing

The bulls will argue that CDX spreads are widening from historically tight levels and that the absolute level of stress remains modest by historical standards. That’s technically accurate, as shown, Treasury-to-Junk Bond spreads in early 2026 are not at the panic levels seen in 2008 or 2020. So why worry?

It isn’t the absolute level of the CDX that matters, but the direction of travel and the rate of change. If investors wait for the “spike,” it will likely be too late to act. Sentiment Trader’s nine-month high threshold isn’t about measuring the peak of a crisis; it is a warning of a potential turn. Credit stress doesn’t arrive fully formed. It builds. Each of the prior signals triggered before the real damage was done, precisely because spreads were starting to move, not because they had already maxed out.

There’s also the macro backdrop to consider. The S&P 500 enters this period with valuations near the upper end of its historical range, forward earnings estimates elevated, and sentiment still bullish. As investors, we monitor the high-yield spread closely because it is often one of the earliest signals of a fundamental shift in corporate and economic conditions. In other words, watching spreads provides insights into the health of the corporate sector, which is a major driver of equity performance. When CDX spreads widen, they often lead to lower corporate earnings, economic contraction, and stock market downturns. The reason is that a significant widening of the CDX spreads signal:

  • Liquidity Drain: As investors become more risk-averse, they shift capital from corporate bonds to safer assets, such as Treasuries. The flight to safety reduces liquidity in the corporate bond market. Lower liquidity can lead to tighter credit conditions, affecting businesses’ ability to invest and grow and weighing on stock prices.

  • Corporate Financial Health: Credit spreads reflect investor views on corporate solvency. A rising spread suggests a growing concern over companies’ ability to service their debt. Particularly if the economy slows or interest rates rise.

  • Risk Sentiment Shift: Credit markets are more sensitive to economic shocks than equity markets. When CDX spreads widen, it typically indicates that the fixed-income market is pricing in higher risks. This is often a leading indicator of equity market stress.

  • Corporate earnings may decline: Companies with lower credit ratings may struggle to refinance debt at favorable rates, thereby reducing profitability.

  • Economic growth is slowing: A widening CDX spread often reflects concerns that the economy is heading for a slowdown, which can lead to reduced consumer spending, lower business investment, and weaker job growth.

  • Stock market volatility may rise: As credit conditions tighten, investor risk appetite tends to decline, leading to higher volatility in equity markets.

Listening to credit spreads, particularly the high-yield spread versus Treasuries, is a critical indicator of stock market downturns. Historically, they have been a reliable early warning signal of recessions and bear markets.

Key Catalysts Next Week

The calendar downshifts after two consecutive weeks of high-impact data. No marquee releases are scheduled, but don’t mistake a thin calendar for a quiet tape. The dominant forces will be the market’s ongoing digestion of the March 18 FOMC decision, the updated dot plot, and Powell’s characterization of the stagflation dilemma—all compounded by quarter-end institutional flows that historically amplify moves in both directions.

By Monday, traders will have had a full weekend to digest whether the dots shifted to zero cuts (risk-off repricing in housing, small caps, and high-duration tech) or held at one with dovish language acknowledging labor deterioration (relief bid). A parade of Fed speakers throughout the week will provide color, walking back or reinforcing whatever Powell signaled. Those headlines will move markets more than any scheduled data.

Tuesday’s Q4 Productivity final revision matters more than usual. The prior quarter showed output rising 5.4% while hours worked grew just 0.5%. The unit labor cost component is the inflation signal: falling costs give the Fed room, rising costs tighten the stagflation case. Richmond Fed Manufacturing rounds out the regional factory picture alongside the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys.

Friday’s final UMich Consumer Sentiment is the week’s marquee event. The preliminary reading dropped to 55.5—near post-pandemic lows. The one-year and five-year inflation expectations are what the Fed watches most closely; a spike above 3% would validate the hawkish hold and kill remaining hopes for near-term easing.

Underneath the data, the real story is mechanical: Q1 ends March 31. Pension funds and institutional allocators begin quarter-end rebalancing and window dressing. After the sharp rotation out of tech and into value that defined the first quarter, the question is whether those flows reverse or accelerate. In a thin-catalyst week, flow-driven moves can be outsized.

Don’t mistake repositioning for conviction.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 10:30

Migrant Criminal Beats Deportation Order With Chicken Nugget Defense

Migrant Criminal Beats Deportation Order With Chicken Nugget Defense

In something you might see from the Babylon Bee, an Albanian migrant has secured the right to remain in the United Kingdom by claiming that his children hate "foreign" chicken nuggets, according to the Daily Mail.

Klevis Disha, 39, snuck into the U.K. illegally back in 2001 as a supposed unaccompanied minor. Disha used a fake name and a bogus backstory about being born in the old Yugoslavia. His asylum bid flopped but somehow dragged on, until he snagged indefinite leave to remain in the UK in 2005, the Daily Mail reported.

Fast-forward, Disha hooked up with a girlfriend and popped out a daughter and a son, and then he got nailed in 2017 with £250,000 in dirty money he couldn't explain. The migrant was given a two-year prison sentence and a deportation order - after which Britain's Home Office tried to boot Disha, stripping his citizenship. 

Not So Fast

Disha lawyered up and cried human rights by claiming it would be unduly harsh on his 11-year-old British son, nicknamed C in court documents, if Dad got shipped to Albania. The boy supposedly won't touch the chicken nuggets over there because of textures and a super-picky diet. Ultimately, the judge bought the picky-eater sob story.

Britain's Home Office appealed and a tribunal overturned the ruling. However, after endless hearings dragging into 2026, First-tier Tribunal Judge Linda Veloso ruled in Disha's favor under Article 8 of the Human Rights Act, the Daily Mail said.

The ruling drew scorn from British conservative figures, including Reform UK’s Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf.

"A criminal migrant who entered Britain illegally under a false name and lied in a failed asylum claim has successfully fought his deportation by arguing his son disliked foreign chicken nuggets. This is the country the Tories and Labour have created,” Yusuf wrote on X.

If this ruling doesn't prove Britain has become a total clown country, nothing will.

*  *  * GRAB A SHIRT 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:45

EU Considers Electricity Tax Cuts, Subsidies Amid Iran War Surge In Energy Costs

EU Considers Electricity Tax Cuts, Subsidies Amid Iran War Surge In Energy Costs

Authored by Evgenia Filimianova via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The European Union is weighing electricity tax cuts and targeted subsidies to shield consumers and industry from surging energy costs amid the ongoing Iran war, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on March 19.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech during the European Industry Summit in Antwerp, Belgium, on Feb. 11, 2026. Nicolas Tucat/Getty Images

Speaking after a European Council meeting in Brussels, von der Leyen said electricity prices are driven by energy costs, grid charges, carbon pricing, and taxes.

Electricity taxes and levies in the European Union are on average about 15 percent, she said, adding that the bloc will “propose to mandate lower tax rates on electricity” and ensure that “electricity is taxed less than fossil fuels.”

In some cases, electricity is taxed much more than gas—partially up to 15 times more. This cannot be,” said von der Leyen, according to a statement.

In the European Union, electricity is primarily taxed through the value-added tax and energy taxation under the Energy Taxation Directive, with additional national levies applied by individual member states.

In the first half of 2025, EU household electricity prices averaged 28.72 euros ($33.20) per 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh), roughly unchanged from the second half of 2024, according to Oct. 29, 2025, Eurostat figures.

Although pre-tax prices declined slightly, the share of taxes and levies rose from 24.7 percent in the second half of 2024 to 27.6 percent in the first months of 2025.

Prices varied widely across the bloc. Germany recorded the highest household rates at 38.35 euros ($44.30) per 100 kWh, followed by Belgium and Denmark, while Hungary, Malta, and Bulgaria had the lowest prices.

Compared to a year earlier, electricity costs surged in Luxembourg, Ireland, and Poland but fell in Slovenia, Finland, and Cyprus.

Supply, Prices

Von der Leyen said that the conflict’s immediate impact on Europe was higher energy prices rather than disruptions to physical supply. The EU remains diversified in its gas sourcing, which has helped shield it from shortages, she said.

Norway was the bloc’s largest gas supplier in 2025, accounting for 31.1 percent of imports, followed by the United States at 25.4 percent, Russia at 13.1 percent, and North Africa at 12.8 percent, according to the Council of the European Union. Smaller shares came from the UK and Azerbaijan.

The EU imported more than 140 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) last year, with the United States supplying nearly 58 percent of that total, according to research group Bruegel. U.S. LNG deliveries have tripled since 2021. France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium are the largest importers within the bloc.

Von der Leyen said energy costs themselves account for about 56 percent of electricity prices on average.

EU member states already have tools to cushion these costs through state aid, she said, and the Commission will further relax rules to allow more support for vulnerable consumers and energy-intensive industries.

Grid charges are another significant component, making up roughly 18 percent of prices.

The EU plans legal changes to boost infrastructure efficiency and potentially lower charges for heavy industry, von der Leyen said.

Carbon Market Under Scrutiny

Carbon pricing under the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) is also being reviewed as leaders seek ways to stabilize power costs without abandoning climate goals.

The system requires companies to purchase permits for each ton of carbon dioxide emitted.

Von der Leyen said that the ETS has helped reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels and spurred investment in cleaner energy, but acknowledged that volatility in permit prices has raised concerns among manufacturers.

The Commission will propose measures to modernize the system while preserving its environmental objectives, she said.

EU officials aim to complete the review by July, though member states remain divided on how far reforms should go. Some governments favor expanding free emissions allowances for industry to shield companies from high energy costs.

Italian Industry Minister Adolfo Urso suggested more drastic steps could be necessary if consensus proves elusive. On March 9, he said suspending the ETS could serve as an “emergency response” if reforms cannot be agreed quickly.

Urso said industry estimates indicate that scrapping the system could cut electricity prices by 25 to 30 euros ($29 to $35) per megawatt-hour.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:10

Trump Warns Tehran To "Fully Open" Hormuz Or Face 'Obliteration' As Iran-Israel Trade Nuke-Plant Strikes

Trump Warns Tehran To "Fully Open" Hormuz Or Face 'Obliteration' As Iran-Israel Trade Nuke-Plant Strikes Summary
  • Trump threatens to "obliterate" Iran's power-plants if Hormuz is not open and safe within 48 hours

  • Natanz nuclear site attacked: Iran says "no nuclear radiation" detected, even as attacks on core sites like Isfahan nuclear facilities signal clear escalation despite earlier Trump signals of maybe "winding down."

  • Iran has responded by targeting Israel's Dimona nuclear facility. The Israeli army confirmed "a direct impact of an Iranian missile" on a building in the city that houses a nuclear research facility, AFP reported.

  • War expands with furthest ever Iranian missile launch: Iran fires missiles at Diego Garcia in a failed but unprecedented long-range strike.

  • US claims"degraded" Iran's threat to traffic through Hormuz: CENTCOM says Iran has lost “significant combat capability” after 8,000+ strikes, and bunker-busting attacks on coastal facilities tied to control of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • 23 'allies' sign statement of support for Hormuz traffic safety, signaling their readiness to support secure transit through the Strait,

  • Kharg invasion risk rising: US still weighing a high-risk seizure of Kharg Island as more US warships and Marines surge to the region, raising odds of boots-on-the-ground escalation.

Trump Threatens to "Obliterate" Iran's Power Plants If They Don't "Fully Open" Hormuz

After declaring victory "we won" on Friday, President just went 0 to '11' on the rhetoric scale.

In a post on his TruthSocial feed, Trump declared:

"If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!"

Seems pretty clear what the goal is here... and the clock is ticking.

Iran Says It Is Targeting Israel's Dimona Nuclear Facility In Response To Natanz Strike

At least 39 people were injured in Dimona, home to a nuclear facility in southern Israel, following a barrage of missiles launched from Iran, Israeli media reported on Saturday. The attack marks the seventh missile strike on Dimona and its surroundings since midnight local time (2200GMT), Israel's Channel 12 reported. Israeli ambulance services provided medical treatment and evacuated the wounded to a hospital, the outlet added.

The Israeli army confirmed "a direct impact of an Iranian missile" on a building in the city that houses a nuclear research facility, AFP reported.

Dimona sits near one of the most sensitive locations in Israel: the Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center, long linked to Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons program.

Partial view of the Dimona nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert (picture from March, 2014 via AFP)

The International Atomic Energy Agency says it is aware of reports of a strike in Dimona but has received no information of damage to the Negev nuclear research centre from Israel

Iran says it was targeting Dimona, which houses Israel’s main nuclear research center, as a “response” to an earlier strike on the Natanz nuclear enrichment site. The strike on Dimona came hours after a US-Israeli attack targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear enrichment complex. Iran condemned the strike as “criminal attacks”, saying it violated international law and nuclear agreements, including the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and warned of wider consequences.

The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed the Natanz attack but reported no rise in radiation levels outside the facility, as it launched an investigation and urged restraint. Iran had previously warned it could target Dimona if Israel continued striking nuclear sites.

A military source told Tasnim News Agency on Saturday that Iran has shifted its strategy, signalling a move beyond a policy of proportional retaliation. The source said Tehran now intends to raise the cost of any attack, warning that future responses will be broader and more damaging. 

"The enemy must have realized by now that if they attack one infrastructure, we will attack several of their infrastructures; if they attack a refinery or gas facility, we will attack several similar facilities and teach them a crushing lesson." The source added: "Iran responds to every mistake of the enemy with surprise and sets their interests on fire."

*  *  * Take this, it's dangerous to go alone (three left)

Natanz Nuclear Site Suffers Direct Attack - No Radiation Leakage 

President Trump's late in the day Friday comments proclaiming "I think we've won" suggested he might be readying the announcement of an offramp or at least de-escalation, but that speculation has proven premature as things definitely escalated overnight. 

For apparently the second time of Operation Epic Fury, Iran's flagship enrichment site at Natanz nuclear facility has come under attack. Iran's nuclear agency confirmed the strike but is keeping details deliberately vague, saying nothing about how it was carried out or what weapons were used. What it did emphasize, however, is that "no nuclear radiation" was released.

via AFP

Natanz - alongside the Isfahan nuclear facilities - sits at the core of Tehran’s nuclear program, long viewed as a prime target in the US-Israel campaign to cripple Iran's ability to produce an atomic bomb - though it remains that even Iran's current wartime leadership is saying it has no intent to produce a nuclear weapon. The AP says Natanz was earlier struck at least once at the opening of the conflict, writing: "The facility, Iran’s main uranium enrichment site, was hit in the first week of the war and several buildings appeared damaged, according to satellite images."

All of this, along with steady the overnight and early morning heavy bombing of Tehran marks a definite escalation despite Trump having floated the idea of "winding down" operations in the late Friday comments.

Iran Vastly Expands Threat Radius: Diego Garcia

Another huge escalation and development: British officials are staying tight-lipped after an attempted Iranian strike on the key Indian Ocean air base on Friday reportedly failed, offering no details on what exactly happened. But this risks pulling in the UK, which has appeared reluctant to directly participate in Trump's operation. Britain has generally condemned "Iran’s reckless attacks."

Just hours after Iran targeted the Diego Garcia base, Britain confirmed US bombers can continue using UK facilities - including the same base - for operations aimed at stopping Iranian attacks on shipping in Hormuz.

"Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-U.K. military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean, according to multiple U.S. officials," The Wall Street Journal details. "Neither of the missiles hit the base, but the move marked Iran's first operational use of IRBMs and a significant attempt to reach far beyond the Middle East and threaten US-UK interests."

"One of the missiles failed in flight, and a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, according to two of the people," the report added. "It couldn't be determined if an interception was made, according to one of the officials."

Which is odd, because Araghchi said...

The geographical expanse of the war just got greatly expanded, given Diego Garcia lies about 4,000 kilometers from Iran.

23 'Allies' Signal Support For Secure Transit Through Hormuz

Following the degradation of IRGC forces in the Hormuz area, a coalition of 23 Western and allied nations (UAE, UK, France, Germany, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Australia, and 15 others) issued a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks on commercial shipping, energy infrastructure, and the strait.

The countries signaled their readiness to support secure transit through the Strait, including coordination efforts and preparatory planning. In other words, this is a major diplomatic breakthrough to reopen Hormuz.

Iran and some regional proxies continue attacking US military sites and interests across the region:

Iran's Threat To Hormuz Traffic "Degraded"

On Saturday morning, Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command and the official overseeing Operation Epic Fury, released an update on day 22 of the combat mission and stated:

Iran has lost significant combat capability over the last three weeks. We are taking out thousands of Iranian missiles, advanced attack drones, and all of Iran's Navy, which they use to harass international shipping. Their navy is not sailing. Their tactical fighters aren't flying. They have lost the ability to launch missiles and drones at high rates as seen at the beginning of the conflict.

Cooper then focused on the Hormuz chokepoint, stating that U.S. forces had "destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays" along the critical waterway that the IRGC used to monitor commercial shipping traffic and conduct targeting operations.

"Iran's ability to threaten freedom of navigation in and around the Strait of Hormuz has been degraded as a result. And we will not stop pursuing these targets," Cooper noted.

A quick summary of the overnight U.S. military operations to degrade IRGC forces around the Hormuz chokepoint, which could allow tanker traffic to resume in some greater capacity next week as the world, and Asia in particular, faces an unprecedented energy shock:

U.S. forces have destroyed Iranian radar and surveillance nodes used to track shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, struck underground anti-ship missile facilities, and hit multiple coastal military sites, as Cooper assesses that Iran's combat capability has deteriorated over the first three weeks of the war.

Cooper's push to neutralize IRGC forces in the Strait of Hormuz comes as shipping traffic through the waterway remained subdued last week.

Pentagon Touts 'Obvious Progress'; Bombs Underground Facilities

CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper has said in an operational update that Iran "has lost significant combat capability" in the three weeks since the war began, also at a moment of reports that more IRGC leadership has been taken out in airstrikes. He said the US has struck more than 8,000 military targets, including 130 Iranian vessels. "Our progress is obvious," Cooper boasted.

He described that multiple 5,000-pound bombs were dropped on an underground facility on Iran's coastline, part of a strategy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. "We not only took out the facility but also destroyed intelligence support sites and missile radar relays that were used to monitor ship movements," Cooper said.

Domestic fallout amid rising prices at the gas pump looks to grow in US:

Trump is still said to be mulling a very high risk Kharg Island takeover, which to accomplish would most definitely require ground troops. A second deployment of US troops to the region was authorized earlier this week, and three warships and thousands of additional Marines are en route to the Middle East.

One among many problems in even getting to Kharg Island is that hundreds of miles of Iranian coastline must be passed by any ship hoping to reach Kharg, which lies over 300 miles deep and northwest of the Strait of Hormuz.

*  *  * ORDER BY SUNDAY NIGHT

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 08:00

Nigerian Researchers Accidentally Confirm Africa's Low IQ Problem

Nigerian Researchers Accidentally Confirm Africa's Low IQ Problem

For many years the political left has dismissed all discussion about links between third world populations and low intelligence as "racism" and "xenophobia".  The well documented fact that low IQ populations are more inclined towards lack of impulse control and a higher crime rate does not matter to progressives.  They assert that such claims are based on "rigged" and "biased" data.  

For example, the data on Somalia's low median IQ (which is 67 and far below the western average of 100) is often criticized as "incomplete" because the data is usually taken from refugees and migrants leaving the country rather than a population sample from within the country.  However, populations in neighboring countries like Djibouti or Ethiopia have nearly identical test results. 

It is simply a fact that IQ is largely genetic (around 80% of testing outcome).  The rest is a matter of varied experiences and environment. This does not mean that a "disadvantaged" childhood results in a lower IQ score.  In fact, high IQ individuals often come from significant struggles and studies on top "high achievers" show that around 75% of them come from difficult backgrounds including extreme poverty. 

The leftist arguments against IQ as a qualifier for immigration are built around feelings rather than facts.  And when it comes to progressives and globalists with an agenda, it is obvious that they prefer third world immigration for the exact reason that these people are habitually impulsive and ready to wreak havoc on western society.  That's the outcome the "Multiculturalists" want.

A recent randomized study by researchers in Nigeria was designed to prove the western conception of sub-Saharan Africa wrong:  They believed that Africa's average IQ was much higher than older data claimed.  But, the ultimate outcome of their testing simply reinforced what everyone else already knows.

  

Only 3% of participants scored above the western average of 100.  The median IQ of all participants was 69.  Over 50% of the people tested scored below 70.  To understand just how low Nigeria's averages are, the US Department of Defense in previous research has determined that an 80 IQ is the lowest score that a recruit can have and still be viable for a job in the military. 

On the other end of the spectrum, a "gifted" IQ is 130 or above; only 2% of the entire human population is in this category.  This is nearly 30 points above the highest scores in the Nigerian study.  

IQ measures cognitive capacity and not necessarily all forms of intelligence.  That said, it is perhaps the best measure we have to accurately predict speed of thought, pattern recognition and general success in higher education (STEM fields most of all).  IQ shifts very little over time and age, and academic improvement will rarely lead to an increase (perhaps 5-10 points in the best case scenarios).    

As noted, lower IQ tends to correlate to a higher chance of criminal activity and impulsive violence.  It is not a factor that can simply be ignored for the sake of liberal virtue.  It is too dangerous to sneer at.

This is not to say that all low IQ people are dangerous criminals or that they can't function in society.  Many certainly can.  The problem is a matter of averages and risk.  Is it worth the risk to invite mass immigration from known low IQ countries in the third world given the increased chances of criminality?  The logical answer is no, of course it's not.  There's absolutely nothing to be gained.    

Ideally, western nations should be looking for the best of the best of any potential immigration source.  This can be measured in a lot of ways, with loyalty and a willingness to integrate being at the top of the list.  That said, IQ should also be considered.  There's no practical excuse to dismiss it, only ideological excuses.  

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 07:35

UK House Of Lords Rams Through 'Abortion Up To Birth' Law; Only 1% Of Brits Approve

UK House Of Lords Rams Through 'Abortion Up To Birth' Law; Only 1% Of Brits Approve

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The unelected House of Lords in the UK has just voted to embed extreme abortion provisions into law, decriminalising terminations right up to birth. This comes despite clear polling evidence that only 1% of the British public supports the move, exposing a ruling class utterly detached from the people it claims to serve.

The change forms part of Clause 208 in the Crime and Policing Bill. It removes criminal liability for a woman acting in relation to her own pregnancy at any stage, meaning self-induced abortions — even late-term — carry no legal consequences.

The disconnect could not be starker. As GB News reported: “Just 1% of the public agree with this… and yet it has now made it into law.” 

Former MEP Annunziata Rees-Mogg reacted on the same programme: “This is basically allowing for backstreet abortions to be legalised.” 

Dr Rahmeh Aladwan was equally blunt: “The UK House of Lords has just legalised abortion up to birth. Women can now end the life of their unborn baby at any stage, for any reason, without legal consequences. A truly dark day for Britain.” 

The 1% figure comes from recent YouGov research.

A Whitestone Insight poll showed 67% of the British public agreed that legal boundaries are necessary for protecting life in abortion cases, 62% believed abortion should remain illegal after 24 weeks, 53% agreed that abortion should not be an option if a baby could survive outside the womb, and only 5% supported allowing abortion up to birth.

At 34 weeks, a baby is fully formed and can survive outside of the womb.

Aborting a baby at 34 weeks is widely accepted as murder. Hospitals across Britain fight with every resource to save premature infants at this exact stage. Yet the law now removes any criminal consequence for ending that same life just days or hours earlier. The double standard is grotesque.

Peers rejected amendments to retain criminal penalties, clearing the path despite warnings from medical professionals and pro-life groups. The bill had already cleared the Commons in a rushed process critics slammed as hijacking unrelated legislation.

This vote marks another victory for an out-of-touch establishment that prioritises ideology over the clear voice of the British people. 

Britain deserves leaders who value life at every stage — not ones who normalise its destruction in the days before birth.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/22/2026 - 07:00

McGlinchey: America Throws Its Service Members Into An Unjust War For Israel

McGlinchey: America Throws Its Service Members Into An Unjust War For Israel

Via Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities

President Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching a regime-change war on Iran has so far cost the lives of at least 13 American service members. More than 200 have been wounded, dozens seriously enough to require evacuations to military hospitals in Europe and the United States. Among them are individuals who’ve suffered traumatic brain injuries, burns and shrapnel wounds. One was facing potential amputation of an arm or leg.

As much as these service members and their families are victims of Iran’s justified retaliation for a surprise attack perpetrated amid ongoing negotiations, they’re victims of a betrayal perpetrated by their president and the joint chiefs of staff, who cast them into an unconstitutional war of aggression, packaged in lies and initiated to advance the agenda of a foreign government, while undermining the security of their own country.

Of course, US casualties comprise a small subset of the total bloodshed. In executing this unjust war, Americans have collectively inflicted far more death and dismemberment than they’ve endured, teaming up with their Israeli counterparts to kill more than 3,000 Iranians, including some 150 schoolgirls — mostly between age 7 and 12 — whose school was destroyed by Tomahawk cruise missiles at the war’s very start.

Though it should have already been apparent, Operation Epic Fury should make clear that — service members’ good intentions aside — combat waged under the US flag rarely has anything to do with American security. Moreover — and I say this as former Army Reserve enlistee and Regular Army officer — anyone thinking of starting or extending a military career should understand that their government may send them to be killed, maimed or psychologically damaged, and to slaughter foreign innocents, so long as it helps those in power remain in the good graces of the extremists who rule Israel, and their powerful collaborators inside the United States.

The casket of a soldier killed in the US-Israeli war on Iran is carried past President Trump (Mark Schiefelbein/AP via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Under international law, a war of aggression is considered a supreme war crime unto itself, and Operation Epic Fury is precisely that. Like so many of America’s wars before it, this one was launched on false premises. Contrary to the US-Israeli narrative…

1. Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon. In 2007, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran halted any effort to develop a nuclear weapon in 2003. Since then, the intelligence community has periodically re-validated that conclusion, most recently in March 2025. Belying Trump’s claim that the United States had only two weeks in which to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard this week testified that Iran had made “no efforts” to rebuild its enrichment capacity after it was devastated by last summer’s US bombing.

Note that, in 2005, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa — a formal interpretation of Islamic law — asserting that “the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons.” In the opening act of their latest warfare on Iran, the United States and Israel collaborated to kill him.

2. Iran did not stray from the 2015 nuclear deal until Trump did. When Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was in full compliance. Among other things, the JCPOA required Iran to eliminate its medium-enriched uranium, slash its cache of low-enriched uranium by 98%, limit future enrichment to 3.67%, agree to even more external monitoring than it was already submitting to, and render its heavy-water reactor worthless by filling it with concrete. After Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reinstated sanctions, Iran waited a year, but then began straying from its own commitments, using elevated enrichment as a lever to push for a new agreement and relief from suffocating sanctions. Iran says the JCPOA permitted it to suspend its commitments after Trump’s withdrawal, citing language governing “material breaches” and “significant non-performance.”

Iran is a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and has long cooperated with international inspections and monitoring required by the NPT. On the other hand, Israel has refused to join the NPT and has some 200 nuclear warheads, a situation that makes every dollar of American aid to Israel illegal under US law.

In 2002, Netanyahu assured Congress that "Saddam is hell-bent on achieving atomic bombs" and "guarantee[d]" that a US invasion of Iraq would have "enormous positive reverberations on the region"  

3. Iran wasn’t the problematic negotiation partner. When historians write about the run-up to this latest of American regime-change disasters, they’ll surely emphasize that fact Trump assigned Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to represent the United States in negotiations. While people rightly scoff at their lack of credentials, it’s far more important to appreciate their intimate ties to the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has been trying to maneuver the United States into a war with Iran for decades.

As Branko Marcetic writes in an excellent account of the negotiations at Responsible Statecraft,

Witkoff is known as a staunch supporter of Israel. He counts pro-Israel megadonor Miriam Adelson as a “dear friend” and carries a custom pager gifted to him by Netanyahu and senior Mossad officials, in a reference to an operation in which Israel remotely detonated thousands of pagers that allegedly belonged to Hezbollah officials…

Kushner, meanwhile, has been steeped in the pro-Israel community his entire life. He counted Netanyahu as a family friend growing up, with the future Israeli prime minister occasionally borrowing the teenager’s bedroom during visits. Kushner reportedly consulted with Netanyahu officials to pen Trump’s 2016 speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and he is both friends with hardline pro-Israel figures and has donated money to illegal West Bank settlement-building.

In addition to their glaring conflicts of interest, Witkoff and Kushner refused to bring nuclear experts to their meetings with the Iranians, which reportedly left the Iranians perplexed about how any progress could be made in negotiating such a highly technical subject.

Iran put forward a fresh offer less than 48 hours before being attacked. In the last meeting before bombs dropped, Iran offered concessions that included dilution of its 60%-enriched uranium, a multi-year pause on new enrichment, subsequent enrichment capped at 20%, and expanded IAEA oversight. Sources say UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell, who attended that meeting, was surprised by the strength of the Iranian offer, and saw it as reason to be optimistic about reaching a deal.

Steve Witkoff (left) and Jared Cushner at an October 2025 meeting in Israel with Netanyahu (Maayan Toaf/GOP via Times of Israel)

After learning that Witkoff was grossly mischaracterizing Iran’s stance — if not outright lying about it — Oman’s foreign minister, who’d been mediating the discussions, made an urgent trip to Washington to tell the administration and anyone who’d listen that Iran had made substantial concessions, some of which surpassed the provisions of the JCPOA. His mission failed. In the aftermath, a Gulf diplomat bluntly told the Guardian, “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”

4. Iran’s ballistic missile program wasn’t built for offense. In an example of moving goalposts that would be laughable if the context weren’t so tragic, the Trump administration reopened nuclear negotiations with a new demand — that Iran surrender its conventional ballistic missiles. The White House claimed Iran was building a “conventional shield” that would enable future “nuclear blackmail,” but anyone who’s been paying attention could see the demand sprang from last summer’s 12-Day War, when Iran effectively used cutting-edge ballistic missiles to retaliate against Israeli aggression.

That use is consistent with US intelligence’s characterization of Iran’s military posture as primarily defensive. As the US Defense Intelligence Agency wrote in a 2019 report, “Iran’s conventional military strategy is primarily based on deterrence and the ability to retaliate against an attacker…If deterrence fails, Iran would seek to demonstrate strength and resolve, [and] impose a high cost on its adversary…this strategy is unlikely to change considerably in the near term.”

The demand for Iran’s conventional disarmament and the demand for the scientifically-advanced country to end any nuclear enrichment had something in common: both were made knowing they’d be refused. Here’s how Joe Kent — the former National Counterterrorism Center Director who resigned this week in protest of the war — characterized the enrichment demand in his in-depth, post-resignation interview with Scott Horton:

“I really frankly don’t think the Israelis cared that much about…nuclear enrichment…What I think the Israelis care about is regime change. They wanted to push this war as fast as they could, so they came up with this talking point that zero enrichment was the starting point, knowing that was a non-starter for the Iranians.”

5. Iran hasn’t been waging war on the United States for 47 years. To the contrary, the hostilities have overwhelmingly originated in Washington, and any thorough survey of the history should go back at least 73 years, to 1953. That’s when the United States and United Kingdom orchestrated the ouster of Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister, and the installation of the Shah. The ledger should also include US support of Iraq’s eight-year war on Iran in the 1980s, which included giving artillery targeting intel to Iraq, with the knowledge those targets would be hit with chemical weapons. Then there’s decades of economic blockades, which, mirroring the morality of Al Qaeda, intentionally inflict suffering on civilians with a goal of forcing political change. Last summer brought America’s unprovoked bombing of Iran’s imaginary nuclear weapons program. The ceasefire that ended the so-called 12-Day War turned out to be a mere strategic pause before all-out warfare was initiated by Israel and the United States on Feb 28.

In 2007, a US Humvee burns after the detonation of a roadside IED 60 miles north of Baghdad (AP via Al Jazeera)

A central line in the “47-year war” narrative blames Iran for killing “thousands” of Americans in Iraq, by supposedly directing Shia militias to target Americans, and equipping them with improvised explosive devices (IED). In a concise treatment at his Substack, former Marine officer Matthew Hoh, who led counter-IED efforts in Iraq, dismantled that well-entrenched narrative. His key points:

  • The great majority of American service members killed in Iraq died at the hands of Sunni resistance groups. Iran provided some support to Shia militias, but Hoh calls out the hypocrisy of US officials saying Iran alone has blood on its hands, pinning no such blame on US-aligned Gulf monarchies that backed Sunni militias in Iraq.

  • Americans were an occupying force in a country that US forces had devastated and which was beset by civil war, which means both Shia and Sunni militias had their own reasons for using violence against US troops. Hoh notes that the now-decades-old narrative that Iraqis were killing American soldiers and Marines on orders from Iran “not only helped justify a longed-for war with Iran but also bolstered the fiction of the American occupation as a benevolent and liberating one.”

  • The charge that Iran killed Americans with IEDs centers on the claim that Iran provided Shia militias with a special type of IED called an explosively formed penetrator (EFP). “Anyone with a simple understanding of explosive principles and a half-decent machine shop can make an EFP,” says Hoh. Given the abundance of explosives and other materials around war-torn Iraq, Hoh says “Shia forces were able to mass-produce EFPs in Iraq. Smuggling in EFPs from Iran was unnecessary.”

6. Iran isn’t the “world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” If that title were awarded on the merits, top contenders would include Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel. The US government selectively applies the “state sponsor” label to vilify countries and — more importantly — as the basis for imposing economic sanctions. As we’ve seen in the case of Cuba and others, American secretaries of state have full discretion to slap the “state sponsor of terror” label on and pull it off, with no due process or burden of proof required.

“The US’s list of terrorist organizations is at this point really laughable, because we take groups off willy-nilly based on whether we like them politically or not — not whether they’ve actually engaged in or continue to engage in terrorism,” said Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft co-founder, in a recent appearance on Judging Freedom. “The Sudanese got off the State Department’s terrorist list by simply agreeing to normalize relations with Israel — nothing else.”

It’s true that Iran has sponsored various groups in the Middle East that seek to thwart US and Israeli hegemony in the region. At times, some of those groups — like Hamas — have used violence against civilians to achieve political ends, which is the honest definition of terrorism. However, US and Israeli condemnation of Iran’s support for such groups is intensely hypocritical, considering the United States and Israel have themselves backed forces that have carried out terrorism. Indeed, if sponsorship of Hamas is damning for Iran, it’s also damning for Israel and Netanyahu, who long fostered the rise of Hamas even after it turned to terror.

Then there’s the regime-change campaign in Syria, which saw the United States and its Gulf allies empowering head-chopping terrorists, and saw Israel patching up al Qaeda members and sending them back into Syria to raise hell. Keep in mind, Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Shia militias were instrumental in beating back ISIS, the monstrous terror entity that sprang from the Syria regime-change campaign carried out for Israel.

The war on Iran isn’t about nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles or state-sponsored terrorism. It’s the continuation of a long-running Israeli program to achieve total dominance over the Middle East by repeatedly shattering surrounding states and territories. Here’s how the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer has described it:

“The Israelis want to make sure that their neighbors are weak and that means breaking them apart, if you can, and keeping them broken…The Israelis want Syria to be a fractured state. They want Lebanon to be a fractured state. What do they want in Iran? …What the Israelis want to do is to break Iran apart. They want to make it look like Syria.”

For many in Israel, this strategy isn’t merely about safeguarding the current version of Israel. Rather, it’s a means of achieving an expansionist dream of “Greater Israel.” While interpretations vary, this vision typically goes far beyond annexing the West Bank and Gaza, also taking Egyptian territory east of the Nile, along with all or portions of what is now Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

IDF soldiers in Gaza were seen wearing patches depicting Greater Israel

The US government has aided and abetted this ruthless strategy in a variety of ways, from the arming of Israel, to running covert operations to foment unrest and equip militant groups, to direct use of American military force. The human cost has been incalculable. In the regime-change wars against Iraq and Syria alone, more than a half million people have been killed, and several times more are believed to have died from secondary causes like disease.

Sadly, it seems it’s now Iran’s turn to be shattered in the pursuit of Israeli supremacy. Iran has been Netanyahu’s white whale: After the launch of Operation Epic Fury, Netanyahu gushed that Trump’s collaboration meant Israel was finally doing what Netanyahu had “yearned to do for 40 years.”

Underscoring the cold-blooded and maliciously dishonest nature of the regime-destruction campaign, consider that Israel and the United States have framed their surprise attack on Iran as a virtuous endeavor meant to liberate the Iranian people from theocratic rule. On the day Israel and the United States launched this new war on Iran, Netanyahu called on Iranians to rise up: “Do not sit idly by, very soon the moment will come when you must take to the streets to finish the job and overthrow the totalitarian regime.”

However, at the same time Netayahu was calling for an Iranian uprising, senior Israeli officials were privately telling US diplomats that “the people will get slaughtered” if they act on those exhortations. Of course, any such slaughter would serve the Israeli agenda, since it could be used to propagandize for more vigorous regime-change action, up to and including what is likely Netanyahu’s greatest wish: a US ground invasion.

It’s hard to imagine, but there could be something even worse than committing one’s self to the defense of America, only to be killed or maimed in a campaign to advance the agenda of a foreign government that is far less an ally than a parasite— and that’s killing, wounding and immiserating innocent people for that same government.

Through March 19, more than 3,000 Iranians have been killed by American and Israeli attacks, according to HRANA, an Iran-focused human rights group. Of that total, 1,394 were civilians, including those several dozen schoolgirls killed on day one; 639 deaths have yet to be classified as military or civilian.

Some 150 elementary-age schoolgirls were killed by a US cruise missile strike in the opening salvos of the US-Israeli surprise attack on Iran (Ali Najafi/ AFP and Getty via NBC News)

There have been more than 1,100 Iranian military fatalities. Among those dead Iranian service members are 87 sailors whose lightly-armed ship was sunk by an American torpedo off the coast of Sri Lanka. The ship was not only far away from the war zone, but it was reportedly lightly-armed as it was returning from a largely-ceremonial, multi-national exercise hosted by India in the interest of building international maritime cooperation.

Given they died on the receiving end of an unjust war of aggression, these and other dead members of the Iranian military were likewise innocent victims of America’s war for Israel. Note too that, unlike every American who’s dishing out death from the sky, land or sea, most Iranians in uniform are conscripts, not volunteers.

That said, there’s reason to empathize with volunteer American service members who’ve now been ordered to wage this war. Ahead of their enlistment or commissioning, most are ill-equipped to peel back the patriotic red-white-and-blue veneer and discern the true nature of US military service. In a sense, they’re victims of a grand fraud. Millions of their fellow citizens are oblivious collaborators in that fraud, to the extent they help perpetuate the false assumption that military service is inherently virtuous and invariably serves the American people.

With Marines now steaming toward the Persian Gulf, the 82nd Airborne Division gearing up and Netanyahu cryptically referring to the necessity for a “ground component”, the number of dead, wounded, dismembered and PTSD-inflicted Americans could soar higher. Given the unjust nature of this war, many are certain to face a lifetime dealing with a lesser-known type of wound — moral injury, which is psychological and emotional distress springing from having witnessed, participated in, or failed to prevent acts that go against one’s moral convictions.

Importantly, the suffering that springs from this war of aggression isn’t confined to the United States, Israel, Iran and Gulf states hosting US bases. People around the world are already coping with growing scarcity and increasing cost of oil and gas. Asian countries are particularly vulnerable, and they’re already taking measures like rationing fuel, cutting workweeks, urging more people to work from home and closing hotels hit by diminished air travel — all this after less than three weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed to most traffic.

There’s much more to this Pandora’s box of harms. For example, the world’s supply of medicine is in growing jeopardy. “Nearly half of U.S. generic prescriptions originate in India, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for the arrival of key inputs in drug manufacturing,” explains CNBC. The Gulf also supplies about half the world’s urea — a fertilizer component — and the price US corn farmers are paying for fertilizer has jumped upwards of 70%. That presages higher food costs all over the world, with malnourishment and starvation a distinct risk in some parts of the globe.

Clearly, if the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it’s certain to result in a global health catastrophe, a devastating economic depression, surging crime and social unrest. America’s standing will be profoundly and irreparably damaged in a world united in outrage over a US president’s lawless decision to launch this demented war of choice in service to Israel. American citizens are likely to suffer terrorist acts inspired by this latest savagery inflicted on a Muslim country.

And it will have all started with weapons fired by American service members…

…service members who swore to defend the Constitution, but were given unconstitutional orders to wage war without congressional authorization

…service members who joined the military to defend America, but became attack dogs for a foreign country that saps America’s wealth, depletes America’s arsenal, undermines America’s security and standing, exerts alarming influence on America’s institutions, and inspires terrorism against Americans back home

…service members who should now recognize a stark reality — that they are cogs in a machine that repeatedly inflicts death, dismemberment, disease and destitution on countless innocents in service to the expansionist State of Israel.

Stark Realities: Invigoratingly unorthodox perspectives for intellectually honest readers. Join thousands of free subscribers at starkrealities.net

* * *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 23:20

McGlinchey: America Throws Its Service Members Into An Unjust War For Israel

McGlinchey: America Throws Its Service Members Into An Unjust War For Israel

Via Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities

President Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching a regime-change war on Iran has so far cost the lives of at least 13 American service members. More than 200 have been wounded, dozens seriously enough to require evacuations to military hospitals in Europe and the United States. Among them are individuals who’ve suffered traumatic brain injuries, burns and shrapnel wounds. One was facing potential amputation of an arm or leg.

As much as these service members and their families are victims of Iran’s justified retaliation for a surprise attack perpetrated amid ongoing negotiations, they’re victims of a betrayal perpetrated by their president and the joint chiefs of staff, who cast them into an unconstitutional war of aggression, packaged in lies and initiated to advance the agenda of a foreign government, while undermining the security of their own country.

Of course, US casualties comprise a small subset of the total bloodshed. In executing this unjust war, Americans have collectively inflicted far more death and dismemberment than they’ve endured, teaming up with their Israeli counterparts to kill more than 3,000 Iranians, including some 150 schoolgirls — mostly between age 7 and 12 — whose school was destroyed by Tomahawk cruise missiles at the war’s very start.

Though it should have already been apparent, Operation Epic Fury should make clear that — service members’ good intentions aside — combat waged under the US flag rarely has anything to do with American security. Moreover — and I say this as former Army Reserve enlistee and Regular Army officer — anyone thinking of starting or extending a military career should understand that their government may send them to be killed, maimed or psychologically damaged, and to slaughter foreign innocents, so long as it helps those in power remain in the good graces of the extremists who rule Israel, and their powerful collaborators inside the United States.

The casket of a soldier killed in the US-Israeli war on Iran is carried past President Trump (Mark Schiefelbein/AP via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Under international law, a war of aggression is considered a supreme war crime unto itself, and Operation Epic Fury is precisely that. Like so many of America’s wars before it, this one was launched on false premises. Contrary to the US-Israeli narrative…

1. Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon. In 2007, the US intelligence community assessed that Iran halted any effort to develop a nuclear weapon in 2003. Since then, the intelligence community has periodically re-validated that conclusion, most recently in March 2025. Belying Trump’s claim that the United States had only two weeks in which to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard this week testified that Iran had made “no efforts” to rebuild its enrichment capacity after it was devastated by last summer’s US bombing.

Note that, in 2005, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa — a formal interpretation of Islamic law — asserting that “the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons.” In the opening act of their latest warfare on Iran, the United States and Israel collaborated to kill him.

2. Iran did not stray from the 2015 nuclear deal until Trump did. When Trump withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran was in full compliance. Among other things, the JCPOA required Iran to eliminate its medium-enriched uranium, slash its cache of low-enriched uranium by 98%, limit future enrichment to 3.67%, agree to even more external monitoring than it was already submitting to, and render its heavy-water reactor worthless by filling it with concrete. After Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA in 2018 and reinstated sanctions, Iran waited a year, but then began straying from its own commitments, using elevated enrichment as a lever to push for a new agreement and relief from suffocating sanctions. Iran says the JCPOA permitted it to suspend its commitments after Trump’s withdrawal, citing language governing “material breaches” and “significant non-performance.”

Iran is a member of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and has long cooperated with international inspections and monitoring required by the NPT. On the other hand, Israel has refused to join the NPT and has some 200 nuclear warheads, a situation that makes every dollar of American aid to Israel illegal under US law.

In 2002, Netanyahu assured Congress that "Saddam is hell-bent on achieving atomic bombs" and "guarantee[d]" that a US invasion of Iraq would have "enormous positive reverberations on the region"  

3. Iran wasn’t the problematic negotiation partner. When historians write about the run-up to this latest of American regime-change disasters, they’ll surely emphasize that fact Trump assigned Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to represent the United States in negotiations. While people rightly scoff at their lack of credentials, it’s far more important to appreciate their intimate ties to the Israeli government and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has been trying to maneuver the United States into a war with Iran for decades.

As Branko Marcetic writes in an excellent account of the negotiations at Responsible Statecraft,

Witkoff is known as a staunch supporter of Israel. He counts pro-Israel megadonor Miriam Adelson as a “dear friend” and carries a custom pager gifted to him by Netanyahu and senior Mossad officials, in a reference to an operation in which Israel remotely detonated thousands of pagers that allegedly belonged to Hezbollah officials…

Kushner, meanwhile, has been steeped in the pro-Israel community his entire life. He counted Netanyahu as a family friend growing up, with the future Israeli prime minister occasionally borrowing the teenager’s bedroom during visits. Kushner reportedly consulted with Netanyahu officials to pen Trump’s 2016 speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and he is both friends with hardline pro-Israel figures and has donated money to illegal West Bank settlement-building.

In addition to their glaring conflicts of interest, Witkoff and Kushner refused to bring nuclear experts to their meetings with the Iranians, which reportedly left the Iranians perplexed about how any progress could be made in negotiating such a highly technical subject.

Iran put forward a fresh offer less than 48 hours before being attacked. In the last meeting before bombs dropped, Iran offered concessions that included dilution of its 60%-enriched uranium, a multi-year pause on new enrichment, subsequent enrichment capped at 20%, and expanded IAEA oversight. Sources say UK national security advisor Jonathan Powell, who attended that meeting, was surprised by the strength of the Iranian offer, and saw it as reason to be optimistic about reaching a deal.

Steve Witkoff (left) and Jared Cushner at an October 2025 meeting in Israel with Netanyahu (Maayan Toaf/GOP via Times of Israel)

After learning that Witkoff was grossly mischaracterizing Iran’s stance — if not outright lying about it — Oman’s foreign minister, who’d been mediating the discussions, made an urgent trip to Washington to tell the administration and anyone who’d listen that Iran had made substantial concessions, some of which surpassed the provisions of the JCPOA. His mission failed. In the aftermath, a Gulf diplomat bluntly told the Guardian, “We regarded Witkoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged a president into a war he wants to get out of.”

4. Iran’s ballistic missile program wasn’t built for offense. In an example of moving goalposts that would be laughable if the context weren’t so tragic, the Trump administration reopened nuclear negotiations with a new demand — that Iran surrender its conventional ballistic missiles. The White House claimed Iran was building a “conventional shield” that would enable future “nuclear blackmail,” but anyone who’s been paying attention could see the demand sprang from last summer’s 12-Day War, when Iran effectively used cutting-edge ballistic missiles to retaliate against Israeli aggression.

That use is consistent with US intelligence’s characterization of Iran’s military posture as primarily defensive. As the US Defense Intelligence Agency wrote in a 2019 report, “Iran’s conventional military strategy is primarily based on deterrence and the ability to retaliate against an attacker…If deterrence fails, Iran would seek to demonstrate strength and resolve, [and] impose a high cost on its adversary…this strategy is unlikely to change considerably in the near term.”

The demand for Iran’s conventional disarmament and the demand for the scientifically-advanced country to end any nuclear enrichment had something in common: both were made knowing they’d be refused. Here’s how Joe Kent — the former National Counterterrorism Center Director who resigned this week in protest of the war — characterized the enrichment demand in his in-depth, post-resignation interview with Scott Horton:

“I really frankly don’t think the Israelis cared that much about…nuclear enrichment…What I think the Israelis care about is regime change. They wanted to push this war as fast as they could, so they came up with this talking point that zero enrichment was the starting point, knowing that was a non-starter for the Iranians.”

5. Iran hasn’t been waging war on the United States for 47 years. To the contrary, the hostilities have overwhelmingly originated in Washington, and any thorough survey of the history should go back at least 73 years, to 1953. That’s when the United States and United Kingdom orchestrated the ouster of Iran’s democratically-elected prime minister, and the installation of the Shah. The ledger should also include US support of Iraq’s eight-year war on Iran in the 1980s, which included giving artillery targeting intel to Iraq, with the knowledge those targets would be hit with chemical weapons. Then there’s decades of economic blockades, which, mirroring the morality of Al Qaeda, intentionally inflict suffering on civilians with a goal of forcing political change. Last summer brought America’s unprovoked bombing of Iran’s imaginary nuclear weapons program. The ceasefire that ended the so-called 12-Day War turned out to be a mere strategic pause before all-out warfare was initiated by Israel and the United States on Feb 28.

In 2007, a US Humvee burns after the detonation of a roadside IED 60 miles north of Baghdad (AP via Al Jazeera)

A central line in the “47-year war” narrative blames Iran for killing “thousands” of Americans in Iraq, by supposedly directing Shia militias to target Americans, and equipping them with improvised explosive devices (IED). In a concise treatment at his Substack, former Marine officer Matthew Hoh, who led counter-IED efforts in Iraq, dismantled that well-entrenched narrative. His key points:

  • The great majority of American service members killed in Iraq died at the hands of Sunni resistance groups. Iran provided some support to Shia militias, but Hoh calls out the hypocrisy of US officials saying Iran alone has blood on its hands, pinning no such blame on US-aligned Gulf monarchies that backed Sunni militias in Iraq.

  • Americans were an occupying force in a country that US forces had devastated and which was beset by civil war, which means both Shia and Sunni militias had their own reasons for using violence against US troops. Hoh notes that the now-decades-old narrative that Iraqis were killing American soldiers and Marines on orders from Iran “not only helped justify a longed-for war with Iran but also bolstered the fiction of the American occupation as a benevolent and liberating one.”

  • The charge that Iran killed Americans with IEDs centers on the claim that Iran provided Shia militias with a special type of IED called an explosively formed penetrator (EFP). “Anyone with a simple understanding of explosive principles and a half-decent machine shop can make an EFP,” says Hoh. Given the abundance of explosives and other materials around war-torn Iraq, Hoh says “Shia forces were able to mass-produce EFPs in Iraq. Smuggling in EFPs from Iran was unnecessary.”

6. Iran isn’t the “world’s leading sponsor of terrorism.” If that title were awarded on the merits, top contenders would include Saudi Arabia, the United States and Israel. The US government selectively applies the “state sponsor” label to vilify countries and — more importantly — as the basis for imposing economic sanctions. As we’ve seen in the case of Cuba and others, American secretaries of state have full discretion to slap the “state sponsor of terror” label on and pull it off, with no due process or burden of proof required.

“The US’s list of terrorist organizations is at this point really laughable, because we take groups off willy-nilly based on whether we like them politically or not — not whether they’ve actually engaged in or continue to engage in terrorism,” said Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft co-founder, in a recent appearance on Judging Freedom. “The Sudanese got off the State Department’s terrorist list by simply agreeing to normalize relations with Israel — nothing else.”

It’s true that Iran has sponsored various groups in the Middle East that seek to thwart US and Israeli hegemony in the region. At times, some of those groups — like Hamas — have used violence against civilians to achieve political ends, which is the honest definition of terrorism. However, US and Israeli condemnation of Iran’s support for such groups is intensely hypocritical, considering the United States and Israel have themselves backed forces that have carried out terrorism. Indeed, if sponsorship of Hamas is damning for Iran, it’s also damning for Israel and Netanyahu, who long fostered the rise of Hamas even after it turned to terror.

Then there’s the regime-change campaign in Syria, which saw the United States and its Gulf allies empowering head-chopping terrorists, and saw Israel patching up al Qaeda members and sending them back into Syria to raise hell. Keep in mind, Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Shia militias were instrumental in beating back ISIS, the monstrous terror entity that sprang from the Syria regime-change campaign carried out for Israel.

The war on Iran isn’t about nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles or state-sponsored terrorism. It’s the continuation of a long-running Israeli program to achieve total dominance over the Middle East by repeatedly shattering surrounding states and territories. Here’s how the University of Chicago’s John Mearsheimer has described it:

“The Israelis want to make sure that their neighbors are weak and that means breaking them apart, if you can, and keeping them broken…The Israelis want Syria to be a fractured state. They want Lebanon to be a fractured state. What do they want in Iran? …What the Israelis want to do is to break Iran apart. They want to make it look like Syria.”

For many in Israel, this strategy isn’t merely about safeguarding the current version of Israel. Rather, it’s a means of achieving an expansionist dream of “Greater Israel.” While interpretations vary, this vision typically goes far beyond annexing the West Bank and Gaza, also taking Egyptian territory east of the Nile, along with all or portions of what is now Lebanon, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

IDF soldiers in Gaza were seen wearing patches depicting Greater Israel

The US government has aided and abetted this ruthless strategy in a variety of ways, from the arming of Israel, to running covert operations to foment unrest and equip militant groups, to direct use of American military force. The human cost has been incalculable. In the regime-change wars against Iraq and Syria alone, more than a half million people have been killed, and several times more are believed to have died from secondary causes like disease.

Sadly, it seems it’s now Iran’s turn to be shattered in the pursuit of Israeli supremacy. Iran has been Netanyahu’s white whale: After the launch of Operation Epic Fury, Netanyahu gushed that Trump’s collaboration meant Israel was finally doing what Netanyahu had “yearned to do for 40 years.”

Underscoring the cold-blooded and maliciously dishonest nature of the regime-destruction campaign, consider that Israel and the United States have framed their surprise attack on Iran as a virtuous endeavor meant to liberate the Iranian people from theocratic rule. On the day Israel and the United States launched this new war on Iran, Netanyahu called on Iranians to rise up: “Do not sit idly by, very soon the moment will come when you must take to the streets to finish the job and overthrow the totalitarian regime.”

However, at the same time Netayahu was calling for an Iranian uprising, senior Israeli officials were privately telling US diplomats that “the people will get slaughtered” if they act on those exhortations. Of course, any such slaughter would serve the Israeli agenda, since it could be used to propagandize for more vigorous regime-change action, up to and including what is likely Netanyahu’s greatest wish: a US ground invasion.

It’s hard to imagine, but there could be something even worse than committing one’s self to the defense of America, only to be killed or maimed in a campaign to advance the agenda of a foreign government that is far less an ally than a parasite— and that’s killing, wounding and immiserating innocent people for that same government.

Through March 19, more than 3,000 Iranians have been killed by American and Israeli attacks, according to HRANA, an Iran-focused human rights group. Of that total, 1,394 were civilians, including those several dozen schoolgirls killed on day one; 639 deaths have yet to be classified as military or civilian.

Some 150 elementary-age schoolgirls were killed by a US cruise missile strike in the opening salvos of the US-Israeli surprise attack on Iran (Ali Najafi/ AFP and Getty via NBC News)

There have been more than 1,100 Iranian military fatalities. Among those dead Iranian service members are 87 sailors whose lightly-armed ship was sunk by an American torpedo off the coast of Sri Lanka. The ship was not only far away from the war zone, but it was reportedly lightly-armed as it was returning from a largely-ceremonial, multi-national exercise hosted by India in the interest of building international maritime cooperation.

Given they died on the receiving end of an unjust war of aggression, these and other dead members of the Iranian military were likewise innocent victims of America’s war for Israel. Note too that, unlike every American who’s dishing out death from the sky, land or sea, most Iranians in uniform are conscripts, not volunteers.

That said, there’s reason to empathize with volunteer American service members who’ve now been ordered to wage this war. Ahead of their enlistment or commissioning, most are ill-equipped to peel back the patriotic red-white-and-blue veneer and discern the true nature of US military service. In a sense, they’re victims of a grand fraud. Millions of their fellow citizens are oblivious collaborators in that fraud, to the extent they help perpetuate the false assumption that military service is inherently virtuous and invariably serves the American people.

With Marines now steaming toward the Persian Gulf, the 82nd Airborne Division gearing up and Netanyahu cryptically referring to the necessity for a “ground component”, the number of dead, wounded, dismembered and PTSD-inflicted Americans could soar higher. Given the unjust nature of this war, many are certain to face a lifetime dealing with a lesser-known type of wound — moral injury, which is psychological and emotional distress springing from having witnessed, participated in, or failed to prevent acts that go against one’s moral convictions.

Importantly, the suffering that springs from this war of aggression isn’t confined to the United States, Israel, Iran and Gulf states hosting US bases. People around the world are already coping with growing scarcity and increasing cost of oil and gas. Asian countries are particularly vulnerable, and they’re already taking measures like rationing fuel, cutting workweeks, urging more people to work from home and closing hotels hit by diminished air travel — all this after less than three weeks of the Strait of Hormuz being closed to most traffic.

There’s much more to this Pandora’s box of harms. For example, the world’s supply of medicine is in growing jeopardy. “Nearly half of U.S. generic prescriptions originate in India, which relies on the Strait of Hormuz for the arrival of key inputs in drug manufacturing,” explains CNBC. The Gulf also supplies about half the world’s urea — a fertilizer component — and the price US corn farmers are paying for fertilizer has jumped upwards of 70%. That presages higher food costs all over the world, with malnourishment and starvation a distinct risk in some parts of the globe.

Clearly, if the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it’s certain to result in a global health catastrophe, a devastating economic depression, surging crime and social unrest. America’s standing will be profoundly and irreparably damaged in a world united in outrage over a US president’s lawless decision to launch this demented war of choice in service to Israel. American citizens are likely to suffer terrorist acts inspired by this latest savagery inflicted on a Muslim country.

And it will have all started with weapons fired by American service members…

…service members who swore to defend the Constitution, but were given unconstitutional orders to wage war without congressional authorization

…service members who joined the military to defend America, but became attack dogs for a foreign country that saps America’s wealth, depletes America’s arsenal, undermines America’s security and standing, exerts alarming influence on America’s institutions, and inspires terrorism against Americans back home

…service members who should now recognize a stark reality — that they are cogs in a machine that repeatedly inflicts death, dismemberment, disease and destitution on countless innocents in service to the expansionist State of Israel.

Stark Realities: Invigoratingly unorthodox perspectives for intellectually honest readers. Join thousands of free subscribers at starkrealities.net

* * *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 23:20

"Going To Cripple Our Economy": Small Businesses Sound Alarm Over Record Diesel Price Spike

"Going To Cripple Our Economy": Small Businesses Sound Alarm Over Record Diesel Price Spike

The latest AAA fuel data from across America shows that the national average diesel price at the pump has jumped nearly 40% this month, surpassing the 2022 fuel spike that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Surging diesel prices are already generating a shock across trucking, rail, shipping, farm equipment, construction machinery, generators, and much of industrial logistics, given that the fuel powers the core of the economy.

Seasonality: AAA Daily National Avg. Diesel 2022 vs. 2026

Companies now face three difficult choices if they did not lock in fuel prices before the spike: absorb the impact and accept margin compression, add surcharges, or raise prices.

Last week, Rapidan Energy's Director of Refined Products, Linda Giesecke, told us that, "unlike 2022, the current tightness reflects physical supply disruptions rather than policy risk and trade reshuffling."

Giesecke warned that if the fuel spike proves prolonged, global economic growth could suffer because of diesel's close link to industrial production and freight activity.

BloombergNEF forecast that $5-per-gallon diesel could inflict a weekly $6 billion or more hit on the US economy because these surging fuel costs hurt truckers, construction firms, and farmers the hardest. With prices at $5.2 as of Friday, that weekly hit is set to rise next week.

Readers are already aware of the dire consequences of spiking diesel prices, as we've laid out in recent weeks (see here & here).

Adding more color to the fuel that underpins nearly every stage of production and transport is a Bloomberg report warning that small businesses are sounding the alarm over surging fuel costs.

Here's one example of a small business being financially crushed by surging fuel costs:

Roger Conner sells firewood for a living, but he might know just as much about another energy source: diesel. The fuel powers every step of the supply chain for his company, RC Conner Enterprises: the megatrucks that carry the logs from suppliers to his facility in Exeter, New Hampshire; the machines that offload and process those logs into kiln-dried residential and restaurant-grade firewood; and the trucks that deliver the finished bundles and cords to customers across New England. In a normal year, Conner spends roughly $6,800 a month on diesel. Now it's about $11,000. To absorb some of the cost, he's added a 5% fuel surcharge; when customers saw that, several walked away.

If diesel keeps rising, "we're going to have to keep going up on our pricing, but we probably won't have any sales," says Conner, 50. "This is going to cripple our economy. I don't think people think about how much the economy rides on diesel fuel."

Across the trucking industry, fuel costs are the second-largest expense after driver pay for carriers, according to Bob Costello, the American Trucking Associations' chief economist. He said that even in non-crisis periods, carriers carefully manage fuel consumption because small changes in diesel costs can erode profit margins.

Surging fuel costs are already pushing up freight rates (e.g., barge transport up 27%) across the economy, leading to fuel surcharges from carriers such as UPS, FedEx, and USPS.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at tax consulting firm RSM US, told the outlet that a 10% rise in diesel could lift the CPI by .1%, potentially adding .4%, given the nearly 40% spike in diesel prices this month alone.

The Trump administration is doing a delicate balancing act while attempting to neuter IRGC forces while ensuring domestic fuel prices do not spike out of control. The administration has pulled two of what JPMorgan analysts say are six levers to combat triple-digit WTI prices; those two levers pulled so far include an SPR release and a waiver of the Jones Act to ensure that crude flows from emergency stockpiles move more quickly from port to port.

On Friday, President Trump hinted at "winding down" the Iran war, as CENTCOM on Saturday morning announced its biggest move so far to free up the Hormuz chokepoint by degrading IRGC forces with air-delivered munitions. The administration's current goal is to ensure Hormuz reopens to avert what the IEA head warned last week could be the world's largest energy shock on record.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 22:45

New York City Is Spending $81,000 Per Year On Each Homeless Person

New York City Is Spending $81,000 Per Year On Each Homeless Person

New York City spent about $368 million last year on services for people living on the streets, which equals roughly $81,000 per unsheltered person, according to the NY Post.

Spending through the city’s New York City Department of Homeless Services street outreach programs has increased sharply over the past several years. In 2019, the city spent about $102 million on these services, averaging around $28,000 per unsheltered individual. By the 2025 fiscal year, the average cost had risen to about $81,000 per person, close to the city’s median household income of $81,228.

Unsheltered homeless individuals are those who regularly live outside rather than in shelters or permanent housing. During this same period, the number of people living on the streets grew by 26 percent, rising from 3,588 in 2019 to 4,505 in 2025. However, spending increased far faster than the population itself.

Chart: Charlie Smirkley

The NY Post writes that the rise in street homelessness has been linked partly to the COVID-19 pandemic and increased migration. Still, the report noted that the reasons spending rose so quickly are not fully clear. One possible factor is the expansion of low-barrier shelters and drop-in centers that provide services such as meals, showers, and temporary sleeping spaces, allowing people to come and go freely. Financial records do not clearly separate how much funding goes to these specific programs.

The report says the city should examine more closely how these funds are being used and whether the programs are successfully moving people into shelters or permanent housing. Spending on street homelessness programs is expected to increase further, reaching about $456 million by fiscal year 2026.

Overall homelessness in New York City has also increased significantly. The city’s total homeless population is now around 140,000 people, about 78 percent higher than in 2019. Officials note that roughly 97 percent of homeless residents receive some type of shelter placement, although the number of people living outside continues to grow.

Some housing advocates argue that filling vacant public and supportive housing units could help move more people off the streets while reducing the high costs associated with short-term shelter programs.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 21:35

The State Will Always Socialize The Cost Of War

The State Will Always Socialize The Cost Of War

Via The Libertarian Institute

War is often sold to the public as an act of national will: decisive, necessary, and under control. The bill arrives later, in a quieter form. It shows up in insurance markets, shipping rates, emergency guarantees, higher fuel prices, and sudden policy reversals designed to keep the economic damage from spreading too far or too fast. That is what is now happening with the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The fighting is not only destroying lives and widening instability. It is also revealing something more familiar about the American state: when private actors no longer want to bear the risk of a war Washington helped ignite, Washington moves to spread that risk across everyone else.

The clearest example came when maritime war-risk premiums in the Gulf surged, in some cases by more than 1000%, as ships and cargoes moved through a combat zone centered on one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. This is what markets do when governments create danger: they start pricing reality honestly. Insurance underwriters do not care about speeches about resolve or credibility. They care about missiles, mines, damaged hulls, and the odds that a vessel will not make it home intact. Once those odds change, the market does what it is supposed to do. It becomes expensive to move goods through a war.

But the American state does not like that kind of honesty, because honest prices expose the real cost of intervention. So instead of letting war become unaffordable to the people escalating it, Washington stepped in. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a maritime reinsurance facility covering losses up to roughly $20 billion on a rolling basis, and later named Chubb as the lead insurance partner. In plain English, the government decided that if the private market was no longer willing to carry the full risk of this war, the state would help carry it instead. That is not a side effect of interventionism. It is one of its operating principles. Risk is privatized on the way up, then socialized when the numbers stop working.

The same pattern is visible in energy policy. As the war tightened shipping and pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel, Washington issued a thirty-day waiver allowing purchases of stranded Russian oil at sea to stabilize markets. That move was not just an emergency adjustment. It was an admission. The administration was effectively saying that one war had already become costly enough to require loosening pressure in another theater. A foreign policy that presents itself as hard and disciplined suddenly becomes very flexible when gasoline, shipping, and inflation begin threatening domestic politics. The slogans remain moralistic. The mechanics turn transactional overnight.

This is what statism looks like in practice. It does not simply bomb another country and call it security. It also rearranges the economic landscape at home and abroad so that the political architects of the war do not face the full consequences of their decisions. The cost is pushed outward onto taxpayers who did not authorize the war, consumers who will pay more for energy and goods, and trading systems that now have to absorb new shocks because Washington and Israel chose escalation over restraint. The state does not merely fight. It conscripts logistics, insurance, credit, and public balance sheets into the campaign.

That is why it is misleading to describe this as only a military conflict. It is also an exercise in political risk transfer. The Strait of Hormuz handles around twenty million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products and roughly a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Any government that helps turn that corridor into a war zone is not just making a strategic decision abroad. It is imposing a hidden tax on ordinary life. It is raising the cost of transport, trade, fuel, insurance, and eventually everything built on those foundations. And when those costs start climbing too fast, the same government asks the public to cushion the blow in the name of stability.

There is a moral evasion built into this arrangement. The public is told to think about war in the language of necessity and strength, while the real economics are handled behind the scenes through emergency waivers, public guarantees, and market interventions. Washington bypasses the discipline that peace would impose. It subsidizes the consequences of its own escalation, then presents the cleanup operation as responsible governance. That is not prudence. It is the imperial version of sending someone else the invoice.

The libertarian objection to this war is not only that it is reckless, unjust, and likely to widen. It is also that the state is once again doing what it does best: converting elite foreign-policy choices into burdens to be carried by everybody else. When insurers retreat, the government steps in. When sanctions collide with energy reality, the rules bend. When war becomes too expensive, the price is redistributed rather than paid by the people who chose it. That is the deeper scandal here. The state is not just waging this war. It is socializing its cost.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 21:00

Costco Gas Lines Surge As Drivers Hunt For Cheaper Fuel

Costco Gas Lines Surge As Drivers Hunt For Cheaper Fuel

Rising fuel costs tied to the conflict in Iran are forcing many Americans to rethink everyday spending, especially on gas, according to Bloomberg.

At a Costco near San Antonio, drivers are waiting up to half an hour to fill up, while others are checking apps like GasBuddy or driving farther to save a few cents per gallon. With prices close to $4 nationwide, households are cutting back on dining out, travel, and even groceries.

The broader economic impact will depend on how long prices remain high. Oil has jumped about 45% since the war began, and gasoline futures are up more than 50%, driven by supply disruptions and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. That has pushed pump prices higher across the country, with some states already well above average.

Economists say this kind of spike quickly changes behavior. Gregory Daco pointed to $4 per gallon as a key threshold: “When you go from $3.99 to $4.01… there is a psychological effect.” As prices cross that line, consumers tend to rein in spending elsewhere.

Some are already doing so. A Texas driver quit DoorDash after realizing higher gas costs wiped out her earnings. Others are chasing discounts at warehouse clubs or using grocery reward programs, increasing traffic at retailers like Costco and Sam’s Club. GasBuddy says its monthly users have doubled since the conflict began.

Bloomberg writes that lower- and middle-income households are being hit hardest, since fuel makes up a larger share of their budgets. Families are also seeing costs rise beyond gas, from groceries to basic goods, and are adjusting by cutting extras and planning purchases more carefully.

Even though inflation had been easing, higher energy prices could reverse some of that progress. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the ultimate effect is uncertain, noting, “We just don’t know.”

With prices climbing after a period of decline, the issue could also carry political weight ahead of upcoming elections. While officials hope tax refunds and other measures will support growth, economists warn that prolonged high energy costs could further strain consumers.

For many Americans, everyday choices now come down to trade-offs, from driving farther for cheaper fuel to skipping small indulgences at the store.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 18:05

Iran Ready To Let Japanese Ships Use Hormuz As Chinese, Indian Tankers Already Allowed Passage

Iran Ready To Let Japanese Ships Use Hormuz As Chinese, Indian Tankers Already Allowed Passage

While Iran's decision to close the Straits of Hormuz in response to the US-Israeli bombing campaign was understandable, after all it's the biggest point of leverage the IRGC-controlled nation has left (it is certainly more understandable than bombing all of its Gulf neighbors in the process pushing them from being on the fence to being staunchly anti-Iran), there was always a bit of a glitch in Tehran's calculus: as we showed the day the war broke out, the biggest clients of Gulf exporting nations by far are China, India, Korea and Japan, namely Asian countries which - with the exception of Japan - are hardly allies of the US. Therefore, the countries that would be hit the hardest were those Pacific rim nations that would buy millions of barrels of oil daily from Gulf countries before the war, and now find that oil indefinitely blocked behind the Strait.

Nowhere has this asymmetric impact been more evident than in the price of Asian-basin grades such as Dubai and Oman, which hit a record $170 on Thursday before retracing modestly to $160, while at the same time Europe-heavy Brent has been trading around $110, and WTI crude which primarily feeds the US is trading just below $100.

As a result, it's hardly a surprise that while ideologically they may support Iran, Asia's largest Gulf clients are suddenly finding themselves facing crashing stock markets and a brutal stagflation. 

It's also why while the world's attention has been focused on the escalating daily attacks in the Gulf, which last week crippled global LNG supplies for years - in the process once again hammering Asian supply chains far more than the US which for years has been swimming in natural gas - there has been a furious backchanneling operation to allow passage for tankers belong to said Asian countries.

To wit, late on Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the nation was prepared to facilitate passage for Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after consultations between the countries’ officials, according to Kyodo News.

"We have not closed the strait. It is open," Araghchi said in a telephone interview with Kyodo News on Friday. He also stressed that Iran, which was attacked by the United States and Israel in late February, is seeking "not a cease-fire, but a complete, comprehensive and lasting end to the war."

Araghchi said Iran has not closed the strategic waterway but has imposed restrictions on vessels belonging to countries involved in attacks against Iran, while offering assistance to others amid heightened security concerns. He added that Iran is prepared to ensure safe passage for countries such as Japan if they coordinate with Tehran.

Japan relies on the Middle East for over 90 percent of its crude oil imports, most of which travel through the strait.

Araghchi made the comments in an interview with the Japanese news agency on Friday, Kyodo said. Japan relies heavily on the Middle East for its oil-import needs. The war in Iran prompted the Asian nation to release oil from its reserves this month. 

Araghchi, a former ambassador to Japan, has held phone talks with Motegi twice since the attacks on Iran were launched on Feb. 28. The top Iranian diplomat said he had discussed the passage of Japanese ships through the strait with Motegi.

In their most recent conversation earlier in the week, Motegi urged Iran to ensure the safety of all vessels in the strait.

In Tokyo, a Foreign Ministry official said Japan will carefully assess Araghchi's remarks, adding even if Japanese vessels are able to sail through, the surge in energy prices will remain.

A Japanese government official said that "directly negotiating with the Iranian side" is the "most effective way" to lift the blockade of the strait, while noting the need to avoid provoking the United States.

The potential de-escalation comes as Japan has also been under pressure from US President Donald Trump to help secure the strait. At an in-person meeting with the president earlier this week in Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi explained to him the legal limits to Japan’s involvement in such efforts. At the same time, she highlighted areas of agreement, including a pledge to import more oil from the US and to cooperate on missile development.

But it's not just Japan. In recent days, vessels from countries such as India, Pakistan and Turkey have also passed through the strait.As a reminder, all ships that fly Chinese national flags are free to pass the Strait of Hormuz as Beijing remains Tehran's only financial lifeline. 

In another indication that Iran's stance on the Hormuz blockade is softening, the Iranian Navy guided an Indian liquefied petroleum gas tanker through the Strait of Hormuz last week, allowing the ship to pass on a pre-approved route following diplomatic engagement by New Delhi, according to a senior officer onboard the vessel.

As Bloomberg reports, the officer asked for anonymity, as the crew of his vessel — one of two Indian ships that made the crossing — were not permitted to talk to the media. His account appears to confirm analysts’ views that Tehran is trying to impose a traffic control system through the strait, permitting safe passage for friendly vessels while leaving others fearful of attack.

Over the past week, several ships have transited via a narrow gap between the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm, and tracked close to the Iranian coast.

They include two bulk carriers that had called at Iranian ports, and a Pakistani-flagged vessel, the Karachi.

The officer on the Indian LPG ship declined to give specific details of their route. They traveled with their automatic identification system, or AIS, system switched off, according to the officer and AIS data analyzed by Bloomberg, turning it back on after they were safely out into the Gulf of Oman. The officer said the ship was also unable to use GPS, which has been subject to widespread interference since the beginning of the conflict. That meant the crossing took hours longer than usual.

During the crossing, the officer’s ship was in contact with the Iranian navy by radio, he said. The Iranians took details of the ship’s flag, name, origin and destination ports, and the nationality of the crew members - all of whom were Indian - and guided them on an agreed course.

Before they entered the strait last week, sailors onboard the LPG tanker prepared their life rafts, the officer said. They had been anchored in the Persian Gulf for around 10 days when they were told on the morning of Friday March 13 that they had been granted permission to make the transit that night. On the far side of the strait, Indian Navy ships were waiting to escort them, with the national flag flying higher than usual, the officer said. The vessel has since sailed on to India.

Anil Trigunayat, a former Indian ambassador in Jordan and Libya, said that the fact India was able to secure safe passage shows that diplomacy is possible. “Iran also would not want to burn bridges with everyone at this juncture,” he said. “India, if needed, can also play the role of an interlocutor. These factors have collectively led to India getting this window.”

On Saturday, the WSJ reported that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he reiterated the importance of keeping international shipping lanes open during a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Modi said in a social-media post on Saturday that he condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, which he said threaten stability and disrupt global supply chains. He also “reiterated the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and ensuring that shipping lanes remain open and secure,” said the post.

While two India-flagged tankers passed through the Strait about a week ago, India is now negotiating for more ships to be able to cross, Indian maritime government officials have told The Wall Street Journal, and indeed overnight we received reports that two additional LPG tankers had crossed the strait with Indian navy protection. 

Iran’s threats to ships passing through the strait give the government in Tehran leverage over global energy markets, pushing up prices and creating fears of shortages of oil, natural gas, cooking fuel and fertilizer. Around a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes through the channel. Since the beginning of the war in late February, several ships have been struck by missiles or drones in the strait, at least two seafarers have died, and insurance costs have soared. There have been reports that Iran has mined the waterway.

“It seems that Iran is allowing select vessels to transit Hormuz after verification which takes place during the ships’ transit inside Iranian waters,” said Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group. “While ships are being allowed to transit, it is mostly only to the benefit of Iran.”

Which is to be expected until some sort of ceasefire deal is reach, or the Iran government capitulates. But even if passage remains limited, recall again that the primary shippers through the Strait are already nations that are viewed as either openly friendly to Iran, such as China, or quasi friendly, such as India and now, Japan. Which means that a significant percentage of the ships that would otherwise be blocked by Iran, can pass through, and the actual limitation to oil and LNG passage is much less than the mainstream media reports. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 16:55

Musk Offers To Pay TSA Salaries, Trump Threatens To Deploy ICE As Democrats Hold Paychecks Hostage

Musk Offers To Pay TSA Salaries, Trump Threatens To Deploy ICE As Democrats Hold Paychecks Hostage

Update (1655ET): In addition to Elon Musk offering to cover TSA workers' paychecks during the ongoing shutdown, President Trump has threatened to place U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents at airports if Democrats don’t agree to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

"If the Radical Left Democrats don’t immediately sign an agreement to let our Country, in particular, our Airports, be FREE and SAFE again, I will move our brilliant and patriotic ICE Agents to the Airports where they will do Security like no one has ever seen before, including the immediate arrest of all Illegal Immigrants who have come into our Country, with heavy emphasis on those from Somalia, who have totally destroyed, with the approval of a corrupt Governor, Attorney General, and Congresswoman, Ilhan Omar, the once Great State of Minnesota," Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The post comes after Politico reported that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is "planning to put a stalled" bill to fund DHS "on the House floor a third time next week."

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The Department of Homeland Security shutdown entered its 36th day on Saturday after Senate Democrats blocked yet another funding bill for Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Transportation Security Administration, and other federal agencies, triggering weeks of chaos at airports nationwide, including long TSA checkpoint lines during the peak of the spring break travel season.

Early Saturday morning, Elon Musk, closely tracking the DHS funding lapse, wrote on X that he would personally pay the salaries of TSA agents to get them back to airports and help avert further chaos.

"I would like to offer to pay the salaries of TSA personnel during this funding impasse that is negatively affecting the lives of so many Americans at airports throughout the country," Musk said.

On Friday, a motion to advance a funding bill failed 47-37, falling short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a Democratic filibuster. John Fetterman (Pa.) was the only Democrat to vote "yes" on the DHS funding bill. Sixteen senators from both parties were absent for the vote. This marks the fifth time Democrats have blocked the Homeland Security Appropriations bill since DHS funding ended in mid-February.

Democrats have been absolutely furious over any funding bill for ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that does not include reforms to immigration enforcement operations. That is mostly because they are watching President Trump erode their political power by deporting the very illegal aliens their party allowed to invade the nation under the Biden-Harris regime. Remember, these illegals are the future voting bloc of the Democratic Party, meant to seize political control by disenfranchising citizens.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is planning to force a vote sometime today on a proposal to fund the TSA.

"The chaos at TSA is reaching a boiling point. We need to reopen it as quickly as possible. That is what Senate Democrats are intent on doing," Schumer said.

Related:

By the end of the week, 10% of all TSA workers did not show up for work - just below the record 10.22% absentee rate set at the start of the week. Nearly 400 agents have quit so far in the months-long shutdown, according to DHS. These workers have been without pay since mid-last month, when the Democratic Party began using these agents as political pawns.

The severity of the government shutdown this time has not yet reached the crisis level of travel disruption seen during the 43-day shutdown late last year, when air traffic controllers were used as leverage in political disputes, disrupting air travel nationwide. To prevent such issues in the future, perhaps privatization talks for these agencies should begin.

Is it possible that an unhinged, left-wing judge might try to block Musk from offering to pay TSA agents' salaries during the funding lapse?

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 16:51

Major Trade Group Releases Framework For Tokenized Gold

Major Trade Group Releases Framework For Tokenized Gold

Authored by Martin Young via CoinTelegraph.com,

The major gold trade association, World Gold Council, and the Boston Consulting Group have proposed a new platform to modernize how the precious metal operates in digital financial systems.

The World Gold Council said on Thursday that it published a white paper on “Gold as a Service,” a new platform to “support the issuance and operation of scalable, interoperable digital gold products.”

The open platform would connect the physical custody of gold with the digital systems used to issue and manage tokenized gold products. 

“By standardizing essential market processes such as custody coordination, reconciliation, compliance, and redemption, the model aims to reduce operational complexity, improve access, and enable greater consistency across digital gold products,” the World Gold Council said. 

Crypto-native tokenized gold products include Tether Gold or Pax Gold, which have formed their own custody, compliance and redemption models, but the World Gold Council’s standard could have more sway with institutions due to the trade group’s prominence.

Features include audits, fungibility, and liquidity 

Key features of the Gold as a Service would include standardizing tokenized gold issuance and management, increasing digital gold’s fungibility, embedding audits and assurance, enabling interoperability with existing finance rails, and improving liquidity in lending and borrowing markets. 

World Gold Council CEO, David Tait, said that financial services are undergoing a “rapid and pervasive digital transformation” and gold must also evolve to maintain its role in the global financial system. 

“Shared infrastructure can help gold become more accessible, more easily traded and fully integrated into modern financial systems — ensuring it remains as relevant tomorrow as it has been for millennia,” he added.

Matthias Tauber, a managing director and senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, said, “The question is no longer whether gold will be digital; it’s how it can participate in modern financial systems without compromising physical integrity.” 

Commodities are 20% of tokenized asset market

According to RWA.xyz, tokenized commodities such as gold account for around $5.5 billion, or 20% of the total on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets, a segment that has grown by 340% over the past 12 months, as demand for gold has skyrocketed. 

Tokenized gold and commodities represent 20% of the entire tokenized RWA market. Source: RWA.xyz

Tether’s tokenized gold product has a market capitalization of $2.6 billion, up 17% over the past 12 months, while Pax Gold has a market cap of $2.3 billion, according to CoinGecko. 

On Thursday, crypto exchange Bybit launched a yield-bearing tokenized gold product that lets users earn interest on Tether Gold. 

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Tyler Durden Sat, 03/21/2026 - 15:10

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