All Talked Out?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

This is not something I can say every day, but I feel “all talked out.” 

We just concluded our annual Annapolis Geopolitical Summit. Turnout was amazing as the summit grows year after year. We covered a range of topics, with not only our Generals and Admirals (ret.) contributing, but also the influence from our former CIA officers and some of the industry specialists who participated in the summit was keenly felt. Clients were also able to share their insights.

Prior to the summit, I had the pleasure of having dinner in DC with the Under Secretary of War, Tony Tata, which was incredibly interesting.

I’m on my way to Toronto to take my father to watch the Blue Jays play the Yankees. Then off to Chicago and Milwaukee as we have numerous meetings and events planned. A really exciting time here.

So Many Narratives

If you missed last weekend’s Meandering Through the Narratives, that is worth a gander. We covered the i-shaped economy. Something we think will gain traction as being more “accurate” than either the K or k-shaped economy.

Russia’s frozen € reserves. That is the new twist as the administration (and potentially Europe) ramps up their pushback on Putin. This could be a pivotal moment for Europe (and the bond market).

A few of the topics deserve a bit more time.

Peace Through Strength

Peace Through Strength remains a theme. Our GIG (Geopolitical Intelligence Group) had a lot of thoughts on the 10-points announced in Quantico on Tuesday and the overall messaging. I think we are all digesting it, but my quick takeaways were:

• Some GIG members who I thought would have been against much of what occurred, were not, and vice versa.
• The points listed, in and of themselves, were not overly controversial.
• One risk, that was pointed out multiple times, is that while physical fitness, etc., is important, much of what drives a modern military is “brain power” and we would be remiss to create a culture that pushes out brain power. Nothing in particular happened on that front, but it is something to think about.
• While a “corporate rebranding” comparison remains valid, maybe some of the messaging and tone was possibly “more aggressive” than necessary?
• There was little support for the “enemy within” tone as the GIG, collectively, views the military (from senior officers to the lowest ranking soldier) as working together for the good of the services and the country.

ProSec

Production for Security. You might be surprised by how many tickers are being thrown at me. Every day it seems (because it probably is every day) that someone is sending me a new ticker to look at as a candidate for what we have been calling ProSec™. In last weekend’s report we wanted to make it clear, that yes, like many, we have concerns about longer-term ramifications and would like to see governance issues more clearly defined, but for now, keep investing on the basis of this admin taking new approaches to jump-start technologies and industries deemed critical to national security (which can also be described as critical to preparing for trade negotiations once again with China a couple of years down the road).

It is fun to watch (and fun to learn about) as these tickers are tossed our way, and also fun to profit from this view that hasn’t caught on (at least not as a slogan), but is working extremely well.

Electron Production

The shift from molecules to electrons, which Mike Rodriguez (our Head of Sustainable Finance and a decorated Marine) helped me to use as a phrase, is “blowing up.”

Every serious conversation about AI and Data Centers “devolves” or “evolves” into a conversation about electron production (electricity for us “luddites”).

Electricity production came up during almost every conversation at the summit.

We had clients who helped us and provided information that we have just started to digest (and probably won’t really complete our review until after today’s baseball game). This is in addition to the copious work Mike Rodriguez has done and continues to do. 

I could keep going on now, but I’m not well enough prepared, and quite frankly, I am “talked out” so expect more on this later in the week.

Cyber

Cyber came up in interesting ways at the summit. Everyone “knows” about cyber risk. Everyone is “doing something” about cyber risk. But are we doing anywhere close to enough?

How do public and private entities work together to protect each other?

A lot of “wins” go undocumented, for good reason, so the fears may be overly inflated. Adequacy of response – true deterrence – was discussed in detail. 

I was a little surprised by the focus on cyber, but maybe because it is morphing from an “everyone knows” to “everyone is really trying to figure it out” stage.

Space

On the final day of the summit, we hosted a “war game.” It is an interesting opportunity to “role play” and think about things. One “twist” that was given to one of the groups, was a Chinese missile “knocking out” a U.S. satellite. 

Space as both an investment opportunity and a domain of war, is something we bring up periodically, but need to focus on more.

Government Shutdown

We suggested people Prepare for an Extended Shutdown. We are getting some pushback that a deal could come as early as this week. Given the sources, it is plausible, but I’m still in the camp that this is going to drag on, and we are going to see some “surprising” announcements. In my view, the people saying, “this will end soon” are playing “politics as usual” or following “traditional norms” and I’m not convinced that is the right way to look at things.

Bottom Line

I managed to fill 2 pages while being "talked out."  lot is going on and this seems like an ideal time to develop scenarios for the major themes so you can react as they evolve!

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 16:20

Goldman On NatGas: "From US Congestion Concerns To Tight 2026" 

U.S. natural gas futures surged 17.3% last week, the largest weekly gain since early May. Goldman Sachs analysts offered context for the rally, noting that the market narrative has shifted "from U.S. storage congestion fears to tightening 2026 supply."

A team of Goldman analysts led by Samantha Dart, senior energy strategist, explained that the jump in NatGas prices last week to nearly $3.5/mmBtu was largely due to the roll into the November "winter" contract, which carries stronger heating demand and lower storage congestion risk. 

$3.5/mmBtu resistance.

Dart explained that even beyond the rollover effect, two bullish forces supported the rally:

• First, while the market seemed to be pricing in concerns that Gulf storage would face a congestion event over the past several weeks, such an event does not seem to have materialized. Henry Hub cash prices have held relatively well in the period, consistent with manageable weekly storage injections (Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 3). The weakest point for cash prices in the period, but which still held above $2.70/mmBtu, was the long Labor Day weekend, when demand softness from the holiday was exacerbated by significantly milder-than-average weather.

• Second, U.S. liquefaction demand for gas has increased recently, with Venture Global's Plaquemines' gas pull now approaching its 3.6 Bcf/d capacity, while gas demand at Cheniere's Corpus Christi expansion appears to have also stepped up (Exhibit 4). This has taken total U.S. gas demand for LNG exports to over 16.5 Bcf/d this week, the highest level since early August, and likely to rise sustainably above 17 Bcf/d by mid-Oct, when we expect Cove Point to return from maintenance.

• On net, salt storage, which are the highest deliverability facilities in the U.S., has remained at a manageable level, including an atypical withdrawal last week reported today by the EIA. We note this may be offset next week by a combination of increasing production and reduced pipeline exit flows from the Gulf (largely driven by maintenance events), which could temporarily weigh on U.S. gas prices from current levels. However, we believe we are quickly approaching a period when the market's focus will more sustainably shift towards 2026 tightness concerns. This is illustrated by the Cal26 strip settling this week above $4/mmBtu for the first time in two months. We maintain our $4.00/$4.60/mmBtu Nov-Dec25/Cal26 Henry Hub forecasts.

Dart's chartpack:

*pic

Separately, the heating season is just around the corner, with about 42% of U.S. households (the top source, especially in the Midwest and Northeast)using NatGas for heating. 

Here comes the heating season. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 15:45

US Postal Service Mail Carrier Shot By Amazon Driver

By Eric Kullisch of FreightWaves

A U.S. Postal Service worker was shot in the face during an altercation Friday afternoon in Everett, Washington, and a rival package delivery driver is in custody, according to local police and a postal inspector.

The incident took place at the West Mall Place Apartments. The victim was transported to Providence Hospital with a gunshot wound, the Everett Police Department said in a Facebook post. He was transferred to Harbor View Medical Center in critical condition, Seattle TV station KOMO reported. 

Neighbors said the shooter was an Amazon delivery driver, according to KOMO and social media posts. TV footage showed an Amazon vehicle and USPS van behind police crime-scene tape and the Amazon van being towed away later.

“USPS workers don’t let people in the area when they have the mailboxes open. The Amazon driver didn’t particularly like that, they got into an argument, which escalated to a shoving match, which escalated to the Amazon driver shooting the USPS guy in the freaking eye!!! Then he sat there calmly and waited for the cops to show up and claimed self defense,” a poster named Rich Ryan said on Facebook.

KOMO quoted a U.S. postal inspector as saying the mail carrier was confronted by an individual and the carrier was shot in the face. 

The U.S. Postal Inspection Service and the FBI are also investigating the case. The suspect was booked into Snohomish County jail, KOMO said.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 15:10

Dating App Fatigue Emerges 

For half a century, how couples met in America was primarily shaped by family and friend networks, communities, churches, colleges, and workplaces - you know, just the traditional fabric of Western society. However, the advent of the internet and the rise of Big Tech, with its closely guarded algorithms (and now AI bots), have dramatically reshaped modern romance. Yet, new data from Goldman suggests that how couples meet, whether online or through dating apps, may have reached a major inflection point.

The three-decade trend is clear: traditional networks, whether through friends, bars, or other social circles, haven't dominated how couples meet since the late 1990s. The internet changed everything. But the question now is, how sustainable is the trend of finding your partner on a dating app?

This brings us to a report published by a team of Goldman analysts led by Eric Sheridan, who provided clients with everything they need to know about dating app companies tracked by GS ahead of the third quarter earnings season.

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We won't focus on Sheridan's downgrade of Bumble from "Buy" to "Neutral" or the key investor discussions surrounding Match Group and Grindr. Instead, the focus is on new SensorTower data cited by the analyst, which shows that monthly active users and download growth across major dating apps have been stuck in a funk. 

The highlights of the data (US only) include:

• Monthly Active Users: During July-September, Hinge posted MAU growth of +6% YoY, while all other tracked dating apps declined.

• Downloads: Download trends during the quarter remained negative, with Bumble app downloads -39% YoY (driven in part by lower marketing spend).

The question now is: what's changed in how people perceive meeting a significant other online? Could it be a growing trust issue that meeting a random stranger on the internet feels increasingly risky, given the occasional horror stories? Perhaps people are rediscovering the real value of meeting through friends or social circles, where some level of vetting naturally occurs. Whatever the reason behind the apparent slowdown in online dating momentum, younger generations may be quietly shifting back to the basics.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 09:55

Can Private Investment Unlock A New Nuclear Energy Era

Submitted by OilPrice.com,

As several governments aim to battle climate change by shifting away from fossil fuels and pursuing a green transition, many are revisiting a long-overlooked energy source – nuclear power.

Nuclear power was at the top of many countries’ energy agenda for several decades before a few notable nuclear disasters shifted the public perception of the clean energy source, and several governments halted development for years. Now, as studies show that nuclear power is one of the safest forms of energy, so long as strict oversight mechanisms are in place, we are seeing a revival in the clean energy source. However, one of the major constraints to development is the high cost of project development.

Nuclear power plants are relatively cheap to run, but the cost of developing a new plant and reactor is extremely high, costing several billion dollars to set up. Many governments are funding the development of nuclear energy facilities through public-private partnerships to alleviate the financial burden on the state. In addition, private investors are often more willing to fund nuclear projects that have the political and financial backing of the government as a reassurance.

Over the last year, several tech companies have signed agreements with nuclear companies to gain access to a vast amount of nuclear power once projects come online, as they aim to find a cleaner way to power advanced technologies, such as data centres and artificial intelligence (AI). The widescale deployment of these technologies is expected to drive up the world’s energy demand significantly over the coming decades, and governments are increasingly shifting the burden to tech companies to find clean energy sources to power their operations instead of relying on the existing grid.

In September, representatives from some of the world’s biggest uranium and nuclear energy firms, as well as nuclear experts and investors, met for the annual World Nuclear Association (WNA) symposium to discuss the potential for nuclear investments, with investments in the nuclear value chain expected to increase to $2.2 trillion by 2050 from $1.5 trillion in 2024, according to Morgan Stanley.

Many investors are hesitant to invest in nuclear power due to the uncertainties involved in project development. The construction of new nuclear plants and reactors is extremely complex, and projects can often run over budget and take years longer than anticipated to develop, as seen with EDF’s Sizewell C nuclear power plant in the U.K. The cost of developing Sizewell C has almost doubled to $51.9 billion since it was first proposed, which will result in higher bills for consumers. This is largely due to the lack of nuclear power construction in recent decades, which has driven up the costs of new project development, compared to countries such as China, where projects are generally delivered on time and within budget.

One investor, Arfa Karani, emphasised the change in the nuclear power investment environment in recent years. She explained how the U.K. government has adopted a more hands-on approach to supporting nuclear power and related tech startups in securing investors. “The regulation has to figure itself out. It’s no longer a question of where do we get the capital from? ...because now suddenly it’s become a matter of national security and global power and global dominance,” Karani said. “All the insolvable problems suddenly become solvable, which is very exciting for nuclear,” she added.

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2025 publication “The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy” explores the new policies, projects, investments, and technological advances driving the development of new nuclear power. The report shows that, in a rapid growth scenario, annual investment would need to double to $120 billion by 2030. This means that the rollout of new nuclear projects cannot rely exclusively on public finances. The IEA highlights the importance of bringing down financing costs and attracting private capital to the nuclear power sector. 

The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol stressed that “governments and industry must still overcome some significant hurdles on the path to a new era for nuclear energy, starting with delivering new projects on time and on budget – but also in terms of financing and supply chains.”

The IEA also suggests that the introduction of small modular reactors (SMRs) could help reduce costs and that with the right support, SMR installations could reach 80 GW by 2040, accounting for 10 percent of overall nuclear capacity globally. However, the report states that the success of the technology and speed of adoption will hinge on the industry’s ability to bring down costs by 2040 to a similar level to those of large-scale hydropower and offshore wind projects.

With support from several state governments, we can expect to see a wide-scale rollout of nuclear power capacity in the coming decades. However, the extent of the capacity growth will depend largely on how much private funding governments can attract to the nuclear power market through the introduction of favourable policies and regulations, as well as public funding into new projects. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 09:20

Saudi Arabia's Spending Spree Meets Oil Price Reality

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com,

Saudi Arabia’s grand Vision 2030 ambitions may be colliding with a colder fiscal reality.

Fitch Ratings warned Friday that Riyadh faces rising financial risks as oil prices soften and government spending balloons, threatening the kingdom’s plans for fiscal consolidation.

The numbers tell the story: Saudi Arabia now expects a budget deficit equal to 5.3% of GDP in 2025—nearly double its original 2.3% forecast—before narrowing to 3.3% in 2026.

The deterioration comes largely from weaker oil income, Fitch said, with non-oil revenues holding up but not enough to offset the gap. The rating agency pointed to revenue shortfalls and overspending as the main culprits, noting the massive capital outlays required by megaprojects like NEOM.

This week’s pre-budget statement from Riyadh signaled a shift toward tighter fiscal discipline, but Fitch noted the tension between Saudi’s promises of restraint and its reliance on the Public Investment Fund’s trillion-dollar Vision 2030 agenda.

That tension is only magnified by sliding crude prices, with Brent down more than 7% this week on speculation of further OPEC+ supply hikes.

Those hikes are themselves controversial. Reuters sources have floated that Saudi Arabia wants much larger quota increases than Russia, moves that could win back market share but put additional pressure on oil prices. OPEC has already lashed out at the newswire, dismissing reports of a half-million-barrel increase as “wholly inaccurate.” Yet the clash illustrates the stakes: Saudi Arabia’s fiscal health depends on a stable oil market, but its production strategy is geared toward defending long-term relevance, even if that risks lower near-term prices.

Fitch said fiscal tightening would ultimately come through modest spending cuts, stable oil revenues, and continued growth in non-oil income. But the kingdom’s vulnerability to oil price swings remains obvious. Vision 2030 may be designed to break the dependence on crude—but for now, Saudi Arabia’s books are still hostage to it.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 08:10

Was Scandinavia's Russian Drone Scare A False Flag To Crack Down On Russia's Shadow Fleet?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It’s highly suspicious that Zelensky just claimed without any evidence that they were launched by Russian tankers and subsequently demanded that Europe close the straits to its shipping in response...

Unknown drones recently flew in close proximity to Danish and Norwegian airports, prompting speculation among some that they were Russia’s delayed hybrid retaliation against NATO for backing Ukraine’s drone flights in proximity to Russia’s own airports over the past few years.

No evidence has emerged in support of that hypothesis, but Zelensky still dishonestly passed off such claims as fact during his speech at the latest Warsaw Security Forum.

According to him, “there is growing evidence that Russia may have used tankers in the Baltic Sea to launch drones – the drones that caused major disruption in Northern Europe. If tankers used by Russia are serving as drone platforms, then such tankers should not be free to operate in the Baltic. This is de facto Russia’s military activity against European countries, so Europe has the right to close straits and sea routes to protect itself.”

His proposal for NATO to close the Danish Staits to Russian shipping on this pretext, which would amount to an illegal blockade that could thus legitimize offensive action by Russia in self-defense, was predictable given Ukraine’s and some of its patrons’ interest in escalating the bloc’s tensions with Russia. In fact, it might even be the case that this was the false flag that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service twice warned could soon be staged by the UK and Ukraine, albeit ultimately taking a different form.

They assessed that those two might orchestrate potentially forthcoming provocations in the Baltic that would then be blamed on Russia in order to justify cracking down on its sanctioned energy trade that the West dramatically describes as being conducted by a “shadow fleet” transiting through that sea. While no US ship was targeted with Ukrainian-transferred Soviet/Russian torpedoes nor were such mines fished out of the Baltic, Scandinavia’s Russian drone scare still arguably fulfills the same role.

Skeptics might insist that Russia resorted to “plausibly deniable hybrid retaliation” against NATO, yet it’s illogical that Russia would risk anything that could justify the same escalation that Putin’s restraint has thus far avoided, the same goes for the earlier drone incident in Poland. Ditto that for the associated accusation that it violated Estonia’s maritime airspace. All these incidents were spun by the West as deliberate Russian provocations and preceded escalatory proposals misportrayed as “retaliation”.

The Polish and Estonian ones were exploited to get Trump to greenlight NATO downing Russian jets on the basis of them violating the bloc’s airspace, which might embolden some to attempt this on false pretexts, while the Scandinavian ones were exploited to call for closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. Both concern escalations in the Baltic, which could amount to an illegal blockade that obstructs the free movement of Russian planes and ships there, thus also placing unprecedented pressure on Kaliningrad.

This insight strongly suggests that Scandinavia’s Russian drone scare was indeed a false flag to justify cracking down on Russia’s “shadow fleet”, though it’s presently unclear whether any NATO members will cross the Rubicon by seriously making any such move like closing the Danish Straits to its shipping. In any case, Zelensky’s proposal proves that he’s trying to manipulate Trump into a disaster of epic proportions together with some of his like-minded NATO patrons, but hopefully Trump won’t fall for it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 07:00

ICE Agents Ambushed In Chicago As Trump Deploys National Guard

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were 'rammed and boxed in by 10 cars' in Broadview, Illinois on Saturday, according to the Department of Homeland Security's Tricia McLaughlin in a statement to Fox News. 

Federal agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection walk along West Wacker Drive in the Loop in Chicago on Sept. 28, 2025. Ashlee Rezin/Chicago Sun-Times via AP

According to the McLaughlin, officers "were forced to deploy their weapons and fire defensive shots at an armed U.S. citizen."

The armed attacker, a woman who is a US citizen who was named in a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) intelligence bulletin, allegedly doxxed agents and posted online: "Hey to all my gang let’s f--- those motherf------ up, don’t let them take anyone." 

The firefight took place as "agents were reportedly performing a routine patrol in Broadview, a suburb of Chicago." No agents were injured in the incident, and "the woman involved drove herself to the hospital to get care for wounds."

"Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon," wrote DHS Secretary Kristi Noem in a Saturday post on X, adding "I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way."

Today in Chicago, members of our brave law enforcement were attacked—rammed and boxed in by ten vehicles, including an attacker with a semi-automatic weapon.

I am deploying more special operations to control the scene. Reinforcements are on their way.

If you see a law…

— Kristi Noem (@KristiNoem) October 4, 2025

Hours earlier, in response to plans by President Trump to federalize 300 members of the Illinois National Guard, Gov. JB Pritzker posted a barrage of statements on X - accusing the Trump administration and federal law enforcement of "unprecedented escalations of aggression against Illinois citizens and residents."

"This morning, the Trump Administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will," Pritzker wrote. "It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will."

Federal law enforcement arrive near an ICE facility in Broadview, Ill., on Friday.  (AP/Erin Hooley)

As the Epoch Times notes further, the confrontation marked the latest escalation in an increasingly tense standoff between federal authorities and some states over “Operation Midway Blitz,” a federal immigration enforcement initiative launched on Sept. 8.

DHS said recently the operation has resulted in more than 800 arrests in Illinois, targeting individuals with criminal records, including sexual offenses and gang ties.

Pritzker has denounced the operation as unconstitutional, calling it “a pretext to send armed military troops into our communities.”

The governor, at a press conference last week, accused federal agents of using tear gas, pepper spray, rubber bullets, and flashbangs against protesters exercising their First Amendment right in Broadview.

McLaughlin had earlier urged Pritzker to tone down “rhetoric about ICE” after clashes broke out between protesters and federal agents outside the Broadview ICE processing facility.

“These riots outside the ICE Broadview Processing Center and attacks on ICE officers come after Democrat politicians, including Governor Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson, have villainized and demonized ICE law enforcement,” McLaughlin stated.

The Department of War confirmed last week that it had received a DHS request to deploy troops to Illinois to help protect federal personnel, property, and functions. It said any decisions would be made “in accordance with established processes and announced at the appropriate time.”

In his Oct. 4 statement, Pritzker said that “there is no need for military troops on the ground in the State of Illinois” and that local law enforcement have been working “to ensure public safety around the Broadview ICE facility, and to protect people’s ability to peacefully exercise their constitutional rights.”

“I will not call up our National Guard to further Trump’s acts of aggression against our people,” he added.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 23:55

Hegseth Removes Another Top Pentagon Official

Friday saw more of the expected house-cleaning and reshuffling at the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth, as Navy chief of staff Jon Harrison has been fired.

"Jon Harrison will no longer serve as Chief of Staff to the Secretary of the Navy. We are grateful for his service to the Department," a Department of Defense (DOD) official said.

Via The Daily Mail

Harrison had been appointed to the United States Arctic Research Commission by Trump in 2020, and interestingly he from the start of the current administration became a key architect implementing Hegseth's and Trump's new vision for the Pentagon.

"The sudden ouster, according to two defense officials and a former defense official, follows the confirmation this week of Navy Undersecretary Hung Cao," Politico writes.

The publication further notes that Harrison made changes which also sought to limit the power and influence of the undersecretary job:

POLITICO previously reported that Phelan and Harrison had reassigned several aides who were supposed to help Cao navigate the role once he’s confirmed. They had also planned to interview all future military assistants for Cao to ensure decisions came from the secretary’s office.

Cao is a high-profile Navy veteran and former Republican Senate candidate in Virginia who President Donald Trump nominated for the post.

The ouster follows months of musical chairs inside the Pentagon. Hegseth fired several top aides earlier this year and removed the chair of the Joint Chiefs, as well as the uniformed leaders of the Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard.

As another example, in August Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse had been ousted from his role as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

The official reason disclosed is "loss of confidence". While the DIA is lesser known among the nation's major intel agencies like the CIA or NSA, it coordinates all military intelligence among US armed forces, and is mostly staffed by civilians - but under DoD leadership.

Hegseth also removed Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, head of the Navy Reserve, and Rear Adm. Milton Sands, a Navy SEAL in charge of Naval Special Warfare Command, from their posts, according to officials.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 22:45

Deterring The Next Quasi-World War: China–Russia–North Korea Versus US

Authored by Joseph Yizheng Lian via The Epoch Times,

Russian planes recently flew into Polish and Romanian airspace to test NATO’s resolve while the world veers toward a conflict in Asia—one that could be far worse than the situation in Ukraine—where true deterrence and resolve remain largely absent.

Let’s backtrack a little.

On Sept. 3, Beijing staged a military extravaganza to parade a full suite of fearsome weapons. Many journalists were awed, and some defeatist experts advocated Chamberlainian appeasement. Others, mostly China observers, tried decoding the seating plan of senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials atop Tiananmen Square for clues about the power struggles in Zhongnanhai.

However, what is often overlooked in the discussion about the event is that it represents the financing and support mechanisms behind a new type of quasi-world war. The ongoing Russia–Ukraine war is one example, and the potential invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese regime is another. Let’s explore this further.

The Xinhua images of the Sept. 3 event, featuring Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un consorting in solidarity, should be interpreted as a calculated response to the new tripartite model the West has devised for militarily supporting Ukraine. That model conveys that Kyiv identifies its military hardware needs, European allies provide the financing, and the United States produces and delivers the hardware.

The Beijing event showcased a parallel model: Moscow requests war materiel, including troops, China and North Korea supply them in exchange for cheap Russian energy, with India and a few other countries dipping in. Thus, even though the war’s actual fighting is confined within Ukraine and Russia, its financing involves a much wider array of adversarial states. The coalitional symmetry in this financing mechanism can prolong the bloody conflict indefinitely, which Russia and Ukraine, if left to their own devices, cannot achieve.

A way to stop the war is to break that symmetry, which seems to be the goal of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “secondary tariffs.” On Aug. 6, he doubled the headline tariff on India to 50 percent for buying cheap Russian oil. It is showing results. India reportedly bought much less Russian oil in August. Notably, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Tianjin from Aug. 31 to Sept. 1, quietly skipped the Sept. 3 military parade.

Now, Trump is pressuring Europe to immediately end its remaining reliance on Russian energy and join him in a similar effort against Beijing, and has called for imposing up to 100 percent additional tariffs on China for buying Russian crude oil. The EU leadership is not yet entirely on board, but has proposed to advance its target of ending all energy imports from Russia from 2027 to 2026 or even sooner.

But whatever happens to the war in Ukraine, the world would not be okay even when Putin agrees to call it quits, because Xi has all the intentions to do a sequel. Xi’s primary interest in supporting Russia lies in an expected reciprocation from Moscow if China invades Taiwan. What would a China–Taiwan war look like?

The Russia–Ukraine war is already a quasi-world war. Despite the combat space being narrowly confined, it nevertheless involves the participation of approximately 50 countries on four continents in various capacities.

A China–Taiwan war would likely be confined to the Taiwan Strait and its surrounding areas. However, Taiwan’s prowess in microelectronics manufacturing, which includes a near-monopoly on artificial intelligence-based data-center servers—aside from its more eye-catching and well-known 90 percent global market share in high-end microchips—means that its stability and survival as an independent state are far more critical to the world than those of wheat-exporting Ukraine. A Chinese invasion would conflagrate into a much more intense conflict, immediately impacting and pulling in all the advanced industrialized countries that depend on Taiwan’s high-tech exports.

An estimate of the total economic cost of the now three-year-old Russia–Ukraine war is around 3.5 percent of global GDP, or approximately $3.5 trillion. On the other hand, the global cost of a full-blown China–Taiwan war could easily be more than three times as large, reaching a staggering $10 trillion, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The United States, in contrast to its current peacemaking role and indirect involvement in the Ukraine war, would have no choice but to take center stage in combat. Japan would also be compelled into an important role due to geographic proximity and treaty obligations. The conflict would come closer to an actual world war.

Facing such a daunting possibility, the United States may have already begun strengthening its hand. The Senate’s Fiscal Year 2026 Defense Appropriations bill earmarks $1.5 billion for the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative, while the House version allocates $500 million for Taiwan via the Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative. Once reconciled, the bill will be ready for the president’s signature.

Moreover, the week before the Sept. 3 Beijing parade, senior defense officials from Taiwan and the United States met in Alaska. That seemingly low-key event was leaked to the press on Sept. 4 and confirmed by a U.S. official on the same day. Apparently, the timing of the meet-leak-confirm sequence was a calibrated, premeditated U.S. answer to the Beijing parade. But can Trump really deter China? He can, if he successfully puts three pieces in his grand strategy together.

Trump needs to strengthen Europe by encouraging it to reduce its extensive welfare state and allocate more resources to its defense. The same applies to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia, as they need to be aligned firmly along the First Island Chain. However, behind these two geopolitical pieces must be a thoroughly revitalized United States, which, unfortunately, has seen its strength sapped by decades of socio-economic decay. Trump is achieving this through a thorough revamping of American institutions and policies regarding culture, education, industry, trade, and defense—the essence of the MAGA movement.

Like a severely wounded beast whose blood flows to the core of its body to preserve its dwindling life force, the United States, as it restores itself, may seem isolationist to countries long accustomed to enjoying the economic openness and defense umbrella provided by Pax Americana. That is a dangerous misreading of Trump by many countries, friends and foes alike.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 22:10

Trump To Slash Refugee Admissions By 94% From Biden Levels

The Trump White House is poised to dramatically reduce the number of refugees that will be accepted into the United States over the next fiscal year -- with the ceiling falling a whopping 94% from the limit set by the Biden administration, according to a New York Times report. 

Citing "people familiar with the matter," the Times says a maximum of just 7,500 refugees would be admitted over the coming year, a tiny fraction of the 125,000 limit set by the Biden administration last year. Most of those slots would be reserved for white Afrikaners fleeing South Africa and its murderous violence against white people and the looming threat of uncompensated land confiscation. Afrikaners now represent less than 5 percent of South Africa's population.

Earlier this year, thousands of white South Africans rallied outside the US embassy in Pretoria, South Africa to thank President Trump for his willingness to accept people fleeing anti-white hostility (Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images)

The pending reduction and prioritization of white refugees elicited condemnation from promoters of mass immigration. “Such a low refugee ceiling would break America’s promise to people who played by the rules," Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society (HIAS) president Mark Hetfield, told the Times. "Trump isn’t just putting the Afrikaners to the front of the line, he is kicking years-long-waiting refugees out of the line." HIAS has itself been hammered by Trump policies, slashing its staff by more than half after the new administration slashed funding for refugee programs.  

In May, a group of 59 white Afrikaner refugees arrived in the United States via a chartered flight, raising eyebrows given the speed with which they were whisked into the country, in contrast to people from other countries who've faced waits that extend over years. “They tell quite harrowing stories of the violence that they faced in South Africa that was not redressed by the authorities by the unjust application of the law,” Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said after welcoming them to Dulles International Airport near Washington DC. 

BREAKING: First white South African refugees fleeing persecution arrive in the U.S.

What do you notice? pic.twitter.com/n0OChhe8Vj

— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) May 12, 2025

On Sep. 30, Trump signed a presidential determination to reset the ceiling. However, it won't become official until after consultations with Congress that are required by federal law. For now, those consultations will seemingly have to wait until the government shutdown ends. Earlier this week, a quartet of Democratic senators and representatives used a joint letter to accuse Trump of neglecting his duty:  

“Despite repeated outreach from Democratic and Republican committee staff, the Trump administration has completely discarded its legal obligation, leaving Congress in the dark and refugees in limbo...The consequences are dire...[the virtual shutdown of the program is] betraying the nation’s promise as a refuge for the oppressed.”

Moving aggressively to put the brakes on Biden's open-border policies, Trump suspended the refugee program with an executive order signed shortly after his inauguration. He similarly suspended the acceptance of migrants presenting at the border under a different official avenue referred to as asylum. Trump subsequently carved out an explicit exception to his refugee-program suspension for Afrikaners. However, it appears the total number of Afrikaners to be accepted into the United States this year is less than 100. 

Meanwhile children are taught to sing “kill the boer(white man), kill the farmer” in South Africa.
“prrr phaaa”….

Imagine white people teaching their children songs to kill black people. I’t would be all over mainstream media.pic.twitter.com/tlZCDKkdnl

— Boer (@twatterbaas) October 14, 2023

Making it to the United States via the refugee program often entails a multi-year wait in overseas refugee camps, along with successfully passing interviews, background checks and medical exams. Some 130,000 conditionally-approved refugees and 14,000 Iranian religious minorities who've already cleared the prerequisites are stuck in limbo. 

In other news on the immigration front, the Trump administration has started offering $2,500 apiece to unaccompanied migrant children who are age 14 and older if they'll self-deport to their home countries. The policy was instituted via a memorandum sent to the Department of Health and Human Services on Friday afternoon. NBC News, which obtained a copy, also reported that, according to rumors among immigration advocates, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has christened the self-deportation scheme "Freaky Friday." ICE refuted the name, but confirmed the program, emphasizing that it was a “strictly voluntary option to return home to their families.” In just one of many dimensions of the previous era of open-border madness, more than 300,000 unaccompanied children entered the country during the Biden administration.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 21:35

Pakistan Offers Washington New Arabian Sea Port To Tap Critical Minerals

Via The Cradle

Advisers to Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir proposed to US officials the construction of a new port on the Arabian Sea near the borders with Afghanistan and Iran, according to a Financial Times report released Saturday, citing a plan reviewed by the outlet.

The plan envisions US investors constructing and managing a terminal in Pasni, a coastal town in Gwadar District, Balochistan. The site is described as a gateway to Pakistan’s vital mineral reserves.

The blueprint rules out any US military bases. Instead, it highlights development finance opportunities for a rail network linking Pasni to mineral-rich western provinces, the report says.

The British financial outlet noted that the proposal was circulated to some US officials and later shared with Munir in advance of his recent meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House. 

That meeting, held late last month, followed earlier talks in September when Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sought US investment in agriculture, energy, technology, and mining.

According to FT, Sharif pressed Washington to encourage private-sector involvement in Pakistan’s economy, while Munir’s advisers positioned the Pasni port project as a strategic opportunity for American companies.

The report noted that the initiative reflects Islamabad’s efforts to attract western development financing, particularly for infrastructure projects linked to the country’s resource sectors.

Reuters reported that the US State Department, the White House, and Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to requests for comment. Attempts to reach the Pakistani Army were also unsuccessful.

Alongside economic overtures such as the Pasni port proposal to the US, Pakistan is also reshaping its defense posture in West Asia, utilizing its new mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia to anchor itself as a security guarantor.

Defense Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed last month that the pact is defensive, not expansionist, and left the “door open” for other Arab states to join, comparing it to NATO. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 21:00

Medical Group Reveals Major Role Inflammation Plays In Heart Disease

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The American College of Cardiology recently released recommendations indicating that inflammation should be considered when trying to predict heart disease.

A man walks in a hospital hallway in Irvine, Calif., on Oct. 11, 2016. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

In a report issued in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology on Sept. 29, the college said that the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) blood test that measures CRP, a known inflammatory marker that increases in response to inflammation in the body, can determine whether a person is at risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD).

“Because clinicians will not treat what they do not measure, universal screening of hsCRP in both primary and secondary prevention patients, in combination with cholesterol, represents a major clinical opportunity and is therefore recommended,” said the American College of Cardiology.

“In patients with known CVD, hsCRP level is at least as predictive of future events as LDL cholesterol levels, even in patients treated with statin therapy,” the college said in a separate statement.

It is referring to low-density lipoprotein that is sometimes called “bad” cholesterol, and statins, meanwhile, are a class of drugs that are used to lower cholesterol in the blood.

“In individuals with increased inflammatory burden, an early initiation of lifestyle interventions is recommended to reduce inflammatory risk,” the report said, adding that a “finding of a persistently elevated hsCRP level should lead to consideration of initiation or intensification statin therapy, irrespective of LDL cholesterol.”

The report further stated that for people who have cardiovascular disease who are either taking or not taking statins, the inflammation measurement “is at least as powerful a predictor of recurrent vascular events as that of LDL cholesterol” and shows the importance of evaluating residual inflammation in patients.

It also noted that a low dose of colchicine, a medication that is used to treat gout and sometimes a type of heart inflammation called pericarditis, has been shown to reduce cardiovascular events in individuals with chronic stable atherosclerosis, or the buildup of fats and cholesterol on artery walls.

A type of monoclonal antibody called canakinumab has been shown to reduce major adverse cardiovascular events, they said.

The researchers noted that some anti-inflammatory drugs such as methotrexate, corticosteroids, and TNF inhibitors have not shown benefits in major trials. (ZH: Methotrexate is particularly 'problematic' as they say for multiple reasons)

The group recommended that health providers should encourage people to focus on the “consumption of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts, and olive oil” and increase the intake of omega-3 fatty acids by including fish in their diet.

They’re also encouraged to focus on minimizing red and processed meats, refined carbohydrates, and sugary beverages, it said, adding that other lifestyle changes that may be recommended for individuals with high inflammatory markers include more exercise, quitting smoking, and maintaining a healthy weight.

A study published last month, conducted by researchers at Florida Atlantic University, found that there is a correlation between people whose diets have the most ultra-processed foods and higher levels of hsCRP, the marker of inflammation.

“The time is also ripe for the development of strategies to promote increased physician awareness of the crucial role of inflammation in CVD and accelerate the adoption of evidence-based, guideline-directed anti-inflammatory therapy through dissemination and implementation research,” the college said.

*  *  * Anti-Inflammatory supplements in order of effectiveness

Turmeric

Berberine

Astaxanthin

Resveratrol

Mushroom 10x (specifically the Chaga)

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 19:50

​​​​​​​After Quiet Hurricane Season Peak, Meteorologists Monitor New Development In Atlantic Basin

Last year, the global-warming alarmists at Yale Climate Connections were once again citing research claiming that "human-caused climate change made many recent extreme weather events far more damaging." 

A year late, Yale Climate Connections journalists are glitching because they can't explain "Another round of weird peak-season quiet in the Atlantic tropics."

So what changed over the past year? Did global warming suddenly evaporate, or did the funding to push the narrative dry up?

But only time will tell if these progressive Ivy League elites, operating under the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, within the Yale School of the Environment, are right about human-caused climate change dooming the planet. 

After all, Democrats have pushed narratives that span everything from cow farts and Taylor Swift's private jet to gas stoves, 2-stroke dirt bikes, and petrol-powered cars that present immediate doom to the planet.

Why? Because Democrats used climate propaganda as cover for the biggest heist on the U.S. Treasury ...

Remember:

• "Gold Bars Off The Titanic": After Trump Victory, Biden EPA Scrambled To Funnel $20 Billion Taxpayer Funds Into 'Green' NGOs

Much of their credibility has been staked on pushing immediate 'climate doom porn' - using Greta Thunberg as a puppet - insisting that unless we pay more climate taxes, drive more EVs, and destabilize the grid with intermittent solar and wind, the world is literally toast. 

However, let's return to the topic of the quiet hurricane season that has perplexed climate alarmists.

Last month, Ernesto Rodríguez, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service forecast office in San Juan, Puerto Rico, said that it was only the second time that no named storms had formed during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season since modern record-keeping began in 1950. 

"Usually, conditions during this period are prime," Rodríguez said around mid-September. The quietest peak was recorded in 1992, after Hurricane Andrew devastated Florida.

But, we're not out of the woods yet, and perhaps the next tropical wave in the Atlantic Basin will provide climate doomers with some cover and generate climate propaganda in corporate media outlets. We do miss the days when climate alarmists told us the world would burn to a crisp by 2023 (read here). Yet here we are, still sitting on the Bloomberg Terminal, penning this weather note while eating a burger.   

So here is what The Weather Channel's meteorologists are focusing on ahead of next week: "The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds to a medium chance of development for a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa."

Keep an eye on this tropical wave, which could become a tropical storm or hurricane near the Lesser Antilles - at some point next week.

Strong signal that our next tropical wave could become a tropical storm or hurricane near the Lesser Antilles next week…

Long term, we need to keep an eye on this in case it enters the Caribbean Sea. pic.twitter.com/8hdSorDLqJ

— Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) October 3, 2025

. . .

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 19:15

OPEC+ Slams Reuters Leak On Oil Plans As "Wholly Inaccurate And Misleading"

Submitted by Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

Reuters and its anonymous (oil-shorting) sources are again stirring the oil market. This time, the wire says OPEC+ is preparing another supply hike in November, with Saudi Arabia pushing for something big and Russia urging restraint. But if recent history is any guide, a report of rising quotas doesn’t necessarily translate into rising barrels... and OPEC is getting increasingly irritated with the narrative.

According to Reuters’ unnamed insiders, Riyadh wants an increase of 274,000 to as much as 548,000 bpd, while Moscow is said to prefer another modest 137,000 bpd bump. The group’s eight key producers are due to meet virtually on Sunday to decide. But it’s hard to forget that just three days ago, OPEC issued an unusually sharp rebuke of the media, flatly rejecting circulating reports of a half-million-barrel hike as “wholly inaccurate and misleading.” The statement was widely read as a direct shot at Reuters, whose reports had already knocked prices lower.

The bigger issue is the difference between quota hikes and actual production increases. OPEC+ has been promising staged increases since April as it unwinds cuts, but it’s only managed to deliver about 75% of those barrels. Many members can’t raise production even if they want to.

Nigeria, Angola, and Iraq are still repaying earlier overproduction through “compensation cuts,” while only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have meaningful spare capacity.

That leaves traders stuck parsing press leaks against physical reality. On paper, OPEC+ could announce another big hike. In practice, the barrels may never show up. The result is market theater: Reuters reports a glut-in-the-making, OPEC pushes back to protect the narrative, and prices swing on expectations rather than evidence.

Brent crude is already down more than 7% this week on the latest supply-hike chatter, even though the “extra” oil hasn’t actually arrived. For now, the gap between quota headlines and physical flows is as wide as ever.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 18:40

Trump Thanks Israel For Halting Gaza City Offensive, Urges Hamas "Move Quickly" Or Deal Is Off

The Israeli military has been ordered by the Netanyahu government to pause its offensive in Gaza City, according to Israeli army radio on Saturday, just a day after Hamas is said to have agreed to the Trump-proposed peace plan which seeks the release of all remaining hostages, living and deceased. 

The Israeli military in an official statement said it had been ordered to "advance readiness" for implementing the first stage of Trump’s plan. Army radio noted that military operations in Gaza would be scaled back to "the minimum" - but what have been dubbed defensive strikes will continue. Prime Minister Netanyahu says the hostages will be freed in days.

Source: Israeli army via Reuters

Some of these airstrikes were still observed throughout the day, with Palestinian sources saying at least 55 people have still been killed since dawn.

President Trump himself late Friday urged Israel to halt its bombardment, while also calling on Hamas to "move quickly" on implementing the 20-point peace plan.

"I appreciate that Israel has temporarily stopped the bombing in order to give the Hostage release and Peace Deal a chance to be completed," Trump stated on Truth Social Saturday morning.

But he also warned that "Hamas must move quickly, or else all bets will be off," adding that "I will not tolerate delay, which many think will happen, or any outcome where Gaza poses a threat again. Let’s get this done, FAST. Everyone will be treated fairly!"

But Hamas had only said it is ready to enter negotiations on Trump's peace plan, suggesting there are many more hurdles to go as each condition is agreed to.

Prime Minister Netanyahu in fresh remarks to reporters emphasized that the plan calls for the complete demilitarization of Hamas - but this is anything but certain in terms of whether the Palestinian militant group will actually lay down its weapons.

But Hamas did say it has agreed to releasing all 48 remaining hostages that it's ready to surrender power over the Gaza Strip, but the proverbial devil will be in the details in terms of how precisely this all comes to fruition.

It remains an open question the degree to which fighting has actually stopped in Gaza City...

it has been 18 hours since trump ordered israel to stop bombing gaza to implement the “peace plan” and predictably israel has yet to cease its bombing of gaza.

trump then followed up and made it seem like israel has stopped its operations on the strip. pic.twitter.com/AfiWuemEOc

— hasanabi (@hasanthehun) October 4, 2025

The Palestinian side hopes to see 250 prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 Palestinians detained without charge released as a result of the Trump 20-point plan.

Israeli military Arabic-language spokesperson Avichay Adraee is meanwhile telling Palestinian residents not to return to their homes in Gaza City or northern Gaza.

Still, this moment seems the best shot at truce or permanent peace in the two-year long war in quite a while, and the White House seems ready to seize the initiative and push the sides to the finish line.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 18:05

Where Beer Is Cheapest (And Most Expensive)

From Modelo to Carlsberg, beer prices have climbed sharply across the global economy over the past five years.

While inflation has been a driver, taxes often make up a significant share of the final price. Today, a bottle can cost as little as $0.82 in Shanghai and as high as $4.75 in Sydney in U.S. dollars.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the price of a 0.5L bottle of domestic beer across major global cities, based on data from Deutsche Bank.

Beer Prices Around the World

Below, we show the average cost for a beer in 67 cities worldwide in 2025.

In Australia, beer prices are driven up by significant taxes, with beer prices at least 76% higher than in New York City.

Also placing high in the rankings is Singapore (#3), with taxes also playing a role, reflecting government-led initiatives to deter residents from consuming alcohol. In nearby Malaysia, a bottle of beer in Kuala Lumpur averages $3.32—about 30% more than in New York.

Across Europe, the gap is stark: Ireland leads with the priciest pours at $3.33 a bottle, while Prague—where beer is consumed more than anywhere else in the world—offers the cheapest at just $1.06.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top countries by beer consumption in the world.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 15:45

Bitcoin Faces Its 1913 Moment

Authored by Kane McGukin via BombThrower,com,

Is the Core vs. Knots battle a replay of two ideological Federal Reserve Plans that ultimately centralized gold, the original sound money?

TL;DR: The Core vs Knots battle is an attack on the Bitcoin network. A monetary struggle no different than the fight to establish the Federal Reserve in 1913.

The 1900s, like today, began with bankers at war over the governing rules of money. Two competing factions, the Aldrich Plan and Glass-Owen Plan, launched an assault on sound money because men sought more power and nations demanded more control.

Gold, like Bitcoin, is money because of its first principle origins. Yet the misconception, then and now, is that survival requires more complexity.

History shows how fragile conviction can be. An offer for a seat at the table is enough to flip once passionate defenders of sound money to enablers of credit and unlimited debt. Original goldbugs like Keynes in the 1920s and Greenspan in the 1980s proved unable to brush off the emotional pull of notoriety, currency, and control. Each flippening reintroduces inflationary tactics that corrode money’s principles and value.

Cunning design and corrupt schemes have often proven far too great for man to overcome.

Never a Dull Moment

There’s never a dull moment in Bitcoin or in the world of finance, for that matter.

The latest continuous divide within the Bitcoin community may look like another technical battle. But does it point to something deeper? While it feels like there’s a never-ending need to have something technical to argue over, beneath the GitHub commits and mailing list debates lurks a ghost from the past. The ideological struggle that gave birth to America’s Federal Reserve.

The Fed’s creation was framed in the language of decentralization and regional representation.

Yet its foundation was built on two forces: filters and control (here and here). Behind the curtain, the true drivers in 1913 were the same as they are today. A desire for power, profit, and the ability to manufacture credit money from a hard money basis. A Paper Bitcoin Summer, if you will.

Source: The Princes of Yen by Richard Werner

Ask any Bitcoin maximalist what they despise most, and the likely answers are: the Federal Reserve or the dollar’s undeniable debasement.

That’s what makes the current Core vs. Knots clash so fascinating. It’s not just a nerdy civil war inside Bitcoin development. Viewed through the lens of monetary history, the parallels come into focus. A reminder that only a little over 100 years ago, lines were drawn and sides were picked between two competing visions for a new financial system: the Aldrich Plan (big-bank, corporate centralization) and the Glass-Owen Plan (populist, individualistic ideology). With full hindsight, both promoted decentralization in name only.

Both claimed to defend the money with one important caveat, both plans led inevitably to the centralization of gold, the original “sound money”.

By expanding the Op_Return size (protocol inflation), are we not reintroducing the debasement Satoshi rooted out?

By offering a more centralized Bitcoin client, are we not centralizing trust?

Are both options not heading down a similar “Federal Reserve” path?

Regardless of side, the question we should be asking: will Bitcoin, too, cloak centralization in the language of decentralization?

Bitcoin Is a First Principle Asset

As we saw in 1913, a similar banking stalemate led to the Federal Reserve Act being pushed through on the eve of Christmas holiday. Plowing forward at all costs was not the right answer. History reminds us that just because you can, doesn’t mean you should.

Heated debates tend to harden into an us vs. them mentality, where momentum overrides principle. More often than not, the final path hasn’t resolved the gripes but has paved the way for political and centralized control of money.

“Smart cows show the other cows how to bypass the filters. You know, like you can open the gate. So, you know, it’s always been the case. You could always bypass these things, but I don’t think we would agree that we should bypass the dust relay fee and start seeing a massive amount of dust clog up the network.” – Samson Mow

In the world of banking, there have always been cops and robbers. Piles of assets and monetary value have always enticed the idea of a bank heist. Bitcoin and digital money are proving to be no different. The storage source has shifted, but the mentality to capture remains the same. It’s a reminder of how you embed a European Central Bank Plan inside of an American financial system. Divide and conquer.

If you look at ordinals, that’s one. They’re it’s kind of like an ICO but with pictures. You know, they’re selling these these PFPs or whatever wizard images and cat images and then they have a war chest and they don’t care. They can print more stuff. – Samson Mow

Whether it’s printing from the FED, ICOs, DATs, or Bitcoin Treasury Companies, the invisible hand is one of fractional reserve banking policies.

Furthermore, what Samson describes with ordinals and fee compression rhymes with history. Changing the cost to process a transaction to $0.01 sat/vbytes allows unintended consequences at some point. Just as “cheap trading” fueled reckless high-frequency speculation in equities around 2008. Cheap blockspace and zero-fee incentives risk repeating the same cycle and diluting the value of Bitcoin’s network.

Lowering friction may look like innovation, but history shows it usually ends in centralization and systemic fragility.

Low fees, in essence, remove the security of a financial moat.

Greed’s Temptation and Calling

At the height of the 1914 crisis, John Maynard Keynes was asked to brief the Chancellor of the Exchequer on whether the pound should remain tied to gold. Keynes argued emphatically that it must:

… he (Keynes) had come down very strongly in favor of maintaining the link: “London’s position as a monetary center depends very directly on complete confidence in London’s unwavering readiness” to meet its obligations in gold and would be severely damaged if “at the first sign of emergency that commitment was suspended.

… But whereas before the war he had thought that the best way to achieve this was to ensure that currencies such as the pound be fully convertible to gold at a fixed value, he had now come to believe that there was no reason why linking money supply and credit to gold should necessarily result in stable prices. – Lords of Finance

If the examples of John Maynard Keynes and Alan Greenspan, along with the parallel of 1913 versus today’s Bitcoin divide, reveal nothing else, it is that inflationary pressures, though often hidden, are always present. The history of currency is a long dotted line of individuals who ultimately bend the knee to the erosion of value systems.

Their words defended markets and sound money, but their actions were of centralized control.

Core vs. Knots feels like the same corporate-led sleight of hand that steered Keynes and Greenspan and that defined the Aldrich and Glass-Owen plans. It is the same temptation facing Bitcoin today.

Source: The Princes of Yen by Richard Werner

What is clear is this: it is easy to praise sound money in theory, but far harder to defend it once the “in-crowd” offers you a seat at the table.

The lure of acceptance and the search for yield are powerful drugs. Both have the power to flip a goldbug into a credit junkie without leaving a trace of evidence.

Source: The Princes of Yen by Richard Werner

The Simple Lesson That is Hard to Live By

First principles are non-negotiable. They are like primary colors in art. Remove one, and the structural foundation for all future innovation collapses. Cloud the palette with too many colors, and the core value is drowned by unnecessary bloat. Too many features introduce the Ethereum problem. Endless left-turns disguised as innovation, when the mission could be achieved in a few simple right-turns.

Gold’s important role as sound money was pushed aside, not because it failed, but because men failed to hold the line. Bitcoin faces the same test today.

If Core vs. Knots, ordinals, or fee games erode Bitcoin’s principles, then the ghost of 1913 will win again, only this time in digital form. In a future world, Bitcoin credit will be all the rage.

*  *  *

Get on the Bombthrower mailing list here and receive a free copy of The Crypto Capitalist Manifesto and The CBDC Survival Guide when it drops.   Subscribe to Kane McGukin’s Substack here.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 15:10

China Reportedly Operated SIM Farm Network Designed To Crash NYC Cell Networks 

Last month, just hours before President Trump's address to the United Nations General Assembly, the U.S. Secret Service dropped a bombshell report revealing it had dismantled a massive, decentralized SIM farm network located just 35 miles from New York City. The network had the operational capacity of a telecommunications stealth weapon capable of paralyzing the entire metro area's cell network through a massive denial-of-service attack.

New details emerged in an exclusive report from Blaze News, citing sources within the Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. intelligence community, who revealed that these SIM farms had been operational for more than a year and were operated by China's Ministry of State Security.

"This is something that is a direct threat to our nation right now," a top intelligence official told Blaze News. "A direct threat to our nation, and it needs to be shut down today — like ASAP. Only five of them have been taken down so far."

The Blaze's report continues:

The SIM networks were put in place and are managed by China's Ministry of State Security, an ultra-secretive, massive espionage agency that has grown in prominence and global activity in recent years, according to the journal China Leadership Monitor.

The MSS employs more than 800,000 people, nearly double the Soviet KGB at its peak. The MSS "now operates worldwide at a scale and tempo not seen in decades," China Leadership Monitor wrote in a recent newsletter.

Several officials who spoke with Blaze News anonymously said the establishment and use of this destructive network by China should be considered an act of war. The potential threat to America would be "second only to thermonuclear war," one source said.

"It's absolutely an act of war — an internationally recognized act of war," one intelligence expert told Blaze News. "Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure is, and facilitating terrorism to the point where you're trying to kill high-ranking members of the United States government. Those two alone are acts of war."

. . . 

"These things were being used all summer to SWAT people since Trump was elected," said one source, speaking anonymously because the source is not authorized to discuss an ongoing investigation. "Swatting — that's a terrorist act. The Trump administration declared that a terrorist act."

While the Chinese facilitated the SWAT raids, it is believed that Americans who are familiar with the system — either through a government or a criminal enterprise — are initiating the hoax calls, the source said.

The swatting of a senior Secret Service official and some Secret Service protectees last spring led to the investigation that discovered the Chinese SIM farms in the Tri-State area, the Secret Service confirmed to Blaze News. A Secret Service engineer assigned to the investigation was key to discovering the SIM network.

An intelligence analyst told Blaze News that:

What's shocking is that there may be up to 100 or more of these sites everywhere. There's probably 60, 80, 100 of these in the United States.

The discovery of weaponized SIM farm nodes by China should not come as a surprise. This is because the Chinese Communist Party's ongoing irregular warfare campaign against the U.S. has been supercharged over the years, especially in the era of Trump. 

The book China's Total War Strategy: Next-Generation Weapons of Mass Destruction - published by the CCP BioThreats Initiative and authored by Dr. Ryan Clarke, LJ Eads, Dr. Robert McCreight, and Dr. Xiaoxu Sean Lin - outlines how the CCP pursues an aggressive, multifaceted "total war" against the U.S. that leverages next-generation weapons, including synthetic narcotics (e.g., fentanyl and cannabinoids), bioweapons (e.g., Covid-19), psychological manipulation and influence (e.g., TikTok), and a broad arsenal of irregular warfare tools (read report).

And now, SIM farms appear to be another domain of the CCP's irregular warfare campaign, an effort to collapse America from within by paralyzing communication networks. Throughout this year, one high-level Trump official has warned us about the devastation left behind by the years-long "Salt Typhoon" cyberattack carried out by China. On another front, Congressional Republicans of the Oversight Committee have been investigating the dark money networks and political affiliations of billionaire Neville Roy Singham, a U.S. national reportedly residing in Communist China, who allegedly was funding far-left color revolutions in the U.S. to sow chaos. Are you starting to get the picture now? 

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 14:35

The Golden Age Of Spectacle

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

"The most useful expert, of course, is the one who can lie." Guy Debord

We're living in the golden age of Spectacle: whatever substance remains in politics is lost in the endless parade of outlandish political theater, finance is dominated by staged spectacles of media-savvy CEOs announcing the next trillion-dollar product, and online, all the world's a stage for everyone's spectacle.

French philosopher Guy Debord outlined the value of spectacle in a society and economy that is increasingly dependent on artifice rather than authenticity in his 1967 book, The Society of the Spectacle.

Here is how Debord described his 1967 book in his 1988 follow-up work, Comments on the Society of the Spectacle: "In 1967, in a book entitled The Society of the Spectacle, I showed what the modern spectacle was already in essence: the autocratic reign of the market economy which had acceded to an irresponsible sovereignty, and the totality of new techniques of government which accompanied this reign."

Debord is laying out a way to understand how society has become subsumed by economic forces, specifically markets ruled by the corporate-state.

This arrangement manages the populace by turning everything into a spectacle which in Debord's view is not "real life," it's a representation that we passively accept without understanding how it transforms our identity and social fabric from "being" to "having," i.e. buying and owning stuff that is a representation of who we are.

This representation is managed by technocratic expertise.

What we refer to as propaganda, marketing and narrative are for Debord all aspects of spectacle.

Spectacle as a simulation or facsimile of "real life" speaks to a profound alienation: we passively watch spectacle and take that passive consumption as "real life" without understanding it's all managed to maintain the dominance of those benefitting from this arrangement.

This echoes many related ideas (for example, "The Matrix" films), simulacra being passed off as the authentic "real thing," and Marx's concept of alienation in which the worker has been disconnected (alienated) from the product/value of their labor.

The core idea here is that Spectacle is inauthentic, fake, a simulation, a substitution of representation for substance, that creates a peculiarly unreality. These are the themes I explore in my book Ultra-Processed Life.

The entire appeal of social media can be seen as personalizing Spectacle, as we each gain audience and influence by making ourselves and our lives into unreal representations, i.e. spectacles.

Here are some illuminating excerpts from Debord:

"Because spectacle replaces real life with a mere mediated representation of life that cannot be experienced directly, it provides a framework where mass deceptions and lies can consistently and convincingly appear as true.

It has recreated our society without community, and it has obstructed the ability to communicate in general. Such processes and their ramifications ultimately mean people cannot truly experience life for themselves: they have become spectators, bound to an impoverished state of unlife"

In The Society of the Spectacle, Debord explains that the economy subjugating society first presented itself as an "obvious degradation of being into having," where human fulfilment was no longer attained through what one was, but instead only through what one bought and displayed. As society's capitulation to the economy accelerated, the decline from being into having shifted "from having into appearing."

With respect to knowledge, therefore, experts no longer have to be experts or have expertise, they only need to take on the appearance of expertise.

"All experts serve the state and the media and only in that way do they achieve their status. Every expert follows his master, for all former possibilities for independence have been gradually reduced to nil by present society's mode of organisation. The most useful expert, of course, is the one who can lie."

"The vague feeling that there has been a rapid invasion which has forced people to lead their lives in an entirely different way is now widespread; but this is experienced rather like some inexplicable change in the climate, or in some other natural equilibrium, a change faced with which ignorance knows only that it has nothing to say." Debord

This reminds me of a comment French writer Michel Houellebecq made in an interview: "I have the impression of being caught up in a network of complicated, minute, stupid rules, and I have the impression of being herded towards a uniform kind of happiness, toward a kind of happiness that doesn't really make me happy."

A reliance on spectacle to create a peculiar unreality may not be solely modern.

If we think of late Rome's extravagant spectacles--staged battles in the Coliseum, chariot races, etc.--they were representations of a Roman strength that was no longer real.

In the real world, Rome's power flowed from its vast importation of wheat from North Africa, its lucrative trade with the Mideast and India, its silver mines in Spain and its well-trained and provisioned legions.

Once these decayed or collapsed, the spectacles in Rome were no longer manifestations of power, they were representations of a power that was rapidly dissolving in the world beyond Rome.

As a final thought, consider how AI is being presented as automated expertise. But isn't AI just a representation of true expertise that "serves the state and the media" in a new theater of Spectacle?

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Tyler Durden Sat, 10/04/2025 - 14:00