Zero Hedge

Wall Street Slaughtered On Its Consensus Yen Long As Traders Position for Much More Losses Versus Dollar

Wall Street Slaughtered On Its Consensus Yen Long As Traders Position for Much More Losses Versus Dollar

After this weekend's victory of Japan's first soon-to-be-female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi - which came as a shock to everyone with Goldman saying that "virtually no one—including media, political analysts, opposition parties, and even LDP insiders—had expected this result" - no one perhaps... except our readers whom we told she will be the next Japanese prime minister one month ago - Bloomberg reports that short-term yen sentiment underwent its biggest bearish repricing since late July as the currency hits a two-month low in the spot market.

As BBG FX strategist Vassilis Karamanis writes, pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi’s near-certain elevation as Japan’s next prime minister took traders by surprise, and options show a rush to own downside exposure in the yen, despite its already steep decline which sent it to the lowest level since early August and, prior to that, since February.

Indeed, the one-week risk reversals in USDJPY rally to 44bps, calls over puts, after trading by 22bps in favor of the yen earlier. This is the third most bearish reading in the past three years.

As Karamanis notes, it’s a common picture across the pair’s vol skew which shifts higher across tenors this morning. The largest move is seen on the two-week tenor where risk reversals are heading for their strongest close in favor of the greenback since Sept. 2022

Understandably, all of Wall Street has been wrongfooted on the move: recall not long ago we showed that the most consensus trade across all of Wall Street's trading desks was to be short the dollar (and hence long various G7 pairs like the Yen). 

And sure enough, all those banks made a long yen trade the centerpiece of their USD hate and loathing... until last night, when bank after bank were stopped out. 

Here is Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos, who from biggest dollar bull became one of the biggest dollar bears on Wall Street, and now his clients are not too happy with that reversal. From his note published overnight:

We went long JPY in our FX Blueprint but are now getting out following the LDP election outcome this weekend. Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory reintroduces too much uncertainty around Japan’s policy priorities and the timing of the BoJ hiking cycle. 

There is agreement that inflation is a problem in Japan, but uncertainty is now going up again on how it will be dealt with. We have written at length about the growing political recognition of inflation as a problem - one which has contributed to LDP’s losses in recent elections. Takaichi has acknowledged the need to prioritize measures to counter inflation and has avoided repeating comments from 2024 that the BoJ would be unwise to hike. But her stance on addressing inflation still looks different from traditional policy prescriptions. We note she has: (1) argued that inflation in Japan is more cost-push than demand-pull; (2) emphasized fiscal relief over monetary policy to address price pressures and not ruled out cuts to the consumption tax; (3) noted that the government and BoJ should work closely together; (4) floated a plan to broaden the coalition, which could bring in more dovishly inclined parties like the DPP. The JPY has struggled to capitalize on the Fed repricing story in recent months, and we have argued BoJ hikes would be an important catalyst to watch for. The increased uncertainty around the timing of the next hike leads us to retreat to neutral position on the JPY.

We are turning neutral the JPY awaiting greater clarity. We still see the case for eventual BoJ tightening, a decline in USD hedging costs, extreme undervaluation, and repatriation into Japanese assets as being important drivers of a medium-term JPY view. But these positive catalysts seem to be lacking right now given the political surprise. And without them, fighting the negative carry of being long JPY is too hard. We will be actively watching the shape of the Cabinet, coalition and policy priorities to guide our JPY view from here.

Here is Goldman's FX strategist Michael Cahill closing out his short USDJPY trade at a 230 pip loss (full note here).

Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory in the LDP leadership election and the little premium priced into FX going into the event leaves scope for a quick reset higher in USD/JPY of +1.5-2% in the early trading hours, with elevated two-way risk thereafter as markets assess the likely policy path ahead.

In our economists’ base case, we expect only modest changes to the fiscal stance and no change to our modal path for the BoJ. This argues that much of the new fiscal risk premium should fade, similar to the market’s eventual assessment following the Upper House election and PM Ishida’s subsequent resignation. However, with Takaichi in power, and some of these things likely to take at least a few months to become clear, we expect the market impact to also be more durable this time.

For some time, we have been making the case that global risk sentiment should be more important than domestic developments for the direction of the Yen, and that is still the case. However, it seems likely that domestic developments will add another headwind to Yen performance. We see upside risks to our USD/JPY forecasts and are closing our trade recommendation to go short USD/JPY (initiated at 147.69).

Going down the list: UBS, Citi, MS, etc... everyone. And so the penguins turn. All else equal we would have said this is the time to close out on our long-standing yen short position which is now drowning in positive carry, but we are confident the currency will keep falling until at least 160 before the BOJ steps in. After all, Japan's exports are plunging and the economy is on the verge of another recession which means there is just one way to kickstart it: crush the currency and send stocks soaring, aka old faithful. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 11:12

Supreme Court Rejects Ghislaine Maxwell's Appeal For Sex Trafficking Minors

Supreme Court Rejects Ghislaine Maxwell's Appeal For Sex Trafficking Minors

The Supreme Court on Monday refused to hear Ghislaine Maxwell's appeal to overturn her 2022 conviction for sex trafficking minors with Jeffrey Epstein.

Maxwell, who was sentenced to 20 years in federal prison, had sought to overturn her conviction on the grounds that she was unlawfully prosecuted. She filed her appeal three days after meeting with a top Trump DOJ official tapped to re-examine the Epstein case. 

Now it's down to a Trump pardon - after the President said in late July that he hadn't considered, but won't rule out, a pardon for his former Palm Beach associate. 

Trump supporters have suggested that Maxwell, a British former socialite and daughter of alleged Mossad spy Robert Maxwell (Ghislaine has denied Epstein was running a honeypot operation to entrap elites) - could be the key to exposing a list of powerful Epstein clients. Then, when Trump started acting all weird about it - calling the list a 'Democrat hoax' - a fracture formed within MAGA, as supporters were counting on Trump to release 'the list,' not act like he's on it. 

Maxwell's legal team is crestfallen.

"We're, of course, deeply disappointed that the Supreme Court declined to hear Ghislaine Maxwell's case," her attorney, David Oscar Markus, said in a statement provided to Axios. "But this fight isn't over."

"Serious legal and factual issues remain," he said, "and we will continue to pursue every avenue available to ensure that justice is done."

Maxwell claimed in her appeal that she was wrongly prosecuted because she's covered by a 2007 sweetheart non-prosecution deal negotiated with the US Attorney's Office in the Southern District of Florida. According to said agreement, the US "agrees that it will not institute any criminal charges against any potential co-conspirators of Epstein, including but not limited to" four other suspects. 

Maxwell was not listed as one of those suspects, however her lawyers claim she didn't need to be. 

The DOJ, meanwhile, has argued that the former US Attorney who negotiated the deal, Alex Acosta, didn't have the authority to bind federal districts - including the Southern District of New York, where Maxwell was tried and convicted.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:54

"Freedom" Shirts Reportedly Banned In Kansas Elementary Public School

"Freedom" Shirts Reportedly Banned In Kansas Elementary Public School

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

An elementary school in Kansas has raised a novel question under the First Amendment: whether the freedom of speech includes the right to use the word “freedom.” According to some media reports, Arbor Creek Elementary Principal Melissa Snell stopped the wearing of shirts reading “Freedom,” which have become popular after the assassination of Charlie Kirk. The move is clearly a violation under the First Amendment, in my view.

Libs of TikTok posted an email exchange between Arbor Creek Elementary Principal Melissa Snell and an (unnamed) individual in which Snell confirmed the ban. The email stated: “I just want to make sure that you have told your staff to not wear those ‘Freedom’ shirts to school anymore. Thank you.”

Snell allegedly responded: “Yes, I have. Was there someone in particular that you are referring to? If you don’t mind me asking.”

Our crackerjack investigatory unit at Res Ipsa was able to find that person for Snell from what appears to be video of students of Arbor Creek:

Notably, the Olathe Public Schools district itself sells “We All Belong Together” shirts via its Department of Culture and Belonging. However, “Freedom” shirts were banned, at least temporarily.

Deputy Superintendent Lachelle Sigg wrote to the school community that the district “remain[s] committed to […] honoring all first amendment rights and ensuring that personal expression does not disrupt the educational setting.”

If so, that commitment is more rhetorical than actual.

Superintendent Brent Yeager confirmed the emails that Libs of TikTok had posted earlier in the week, but suggested that it was temporary as Snell “reviewed district practices.”

I fail to see why Snell had to suspend the wearing of such shirts pending review. This is clearly a content-based limitation on speech.

In Tinker v. Des Moines Independent Community School District (1969), the Supreme Court upheld the right of students to wear armbands protesting the Vietnam War, famously writing, “It can hardly be argued that either students or teachers shed their constitutional rights to freedom of speech or expression at the schoolhouse gate.”

This does not involve the type of “lewd,” “vulgar,” “indecent,” or “plainly offensive” speech discussed in cases such as Bethel School District v. Fraser (1986). It is a statement of solidarity between the freedom of speech, a statement made more poignant and urgent with the murder of Kirk for exercising that right.

It is also not a celebration of unlawful conduct, as in Morse v. Frederick (2007), as opposed to the exercise of our most “Indispensable Right.”

It is a good thing that Joseph Cinqué did not try to enroll at Arbor Creek Elementary:

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of the bestselling book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:40

WaPo Admits Internal DC Police Scandal Over Manipulated Crime Stats

WaPo Admits Internal DC Police Scandal Over Manipulated Crime Stats

Five weeks ago, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller announced that there was an ongoing DOJ investigation into whether Washington D.C. officials manipulated crime statistics - calling it a "massive scandal." 

Specifically, Miller said:

"There's even accusations that murders and homicides were reported as accidents."

See 55 second mark:

One day after Miller's late-August announcement, National Police Association spox Betsy Smith told ABC4 News in a little-noticed report that "Commanders and supervisors were having the initial responding officers write the report differently than what they were called to, or different than what they physically saw on the scene."

And while the DC Police Department has been run by Democrats for decades - frustrated cops have been talking to the DOJ and have receipts, presented with a bow by D.C. Police Union Chairman Greggory Pemberton. Read on... 

Greggory Pemberton, chairman of the D.C. Police Union (Photo: Michael A. McCoy via The Washington Post)

On Sunday, the Washington Post revealed internal accusations that "managers were recording serious crimes as more minor ones to make their police districts appear safer or avoid the ire of top department brass" - and that officers and supervisors 'clashed' over "whether an offense was a robbery or a theft, or whether a weapon used in an assault qualified as potentially deadly."

The frustrated officers "kept lists, documenting cases where they believed a higher-up improperly classified a crime as a lesser offense," with one noting 150 such instances in March of 2024 alone in which staff in the Southeast D.C. police district believed offenses were in appropriately classified. 

"The police department is playing fast and loose with how they report their data so that they can report favorably to the citizens about crime, and I don’t think it’s fair to the city," said Pemberton - who's been assisting the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans with 'information compiled by officers.'

So, a group of pissed off cops within the DC police department have been fighting with superiors and keeping notes over misclassified crimes, and kept notes. Now they're working with the feds to blow the lid. Or as WaPo puts it - "found a receptive audience."

We're sure the galaxy brains over at FactCheck.org are getting right on that correction after saying President Trump 'wrongly' claimed that his DC crackdown resulted in 11 days with no murders, the "first time that’s taken place in years." They of course make no mention of the DOJ / Congressional investigation Miller announced two days earlier. 

And of course, a July report by NBC Washington that MPD District 3 Commander Michael Pulliam was suspended and placed under investigation for allegedly manipulating crime data - however Stephen Miller said it was being done "on a widespread basis" - so more than just that sacrificial lamb.

WaPo Spin

Of course this Sunday night report is all about frontrunning the DOJ release - and narrative control. Such as that it could have simply been an initial lack of evidence - writing that "Criminologists say [zh: wait for it] classifying crimes is an often subjective and evolving process: Incidents can be redefined as investigators uncover more evidence, and disagreements don’t necessarily point to corruption." And who's the one criminologist they cited? "Alexis Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Miami who led the Bureau of Justice Statistics during the Biden administration," who "cautioned against jumping to conclusions that D.C. police were purposefully concealing violent crimes."

Right, yes. 

Recall that during the 2024 election, Democrats insisted that crime had fallen under the Biden administration, contrary to your lying eyes. They smugly pointed to FBI crime stats published in 2023 by Biden's FBI - showing that the nation's violent crime rate had fallen in 2022 by 1.7%. Leftist pundits and academics alike used it for a collective 'ackchyually' whenever Trump and his allies would point out the rampant crime gripping Democrat-run cities.

Then, in the home stretch of the election when Trump was clearly ahead (and before Kash Patel could go 'Ah-ha!'), the 2022 figures were revised - revealing that crime had actually increased by 4.5% in 2022. This textbook Ministry of Truth 'correction' was uncovered by John Lott Jr. and published Oct. 16

Amazing...

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:20

AMD Soars Most In Nearly A Decade On OpenAI Chip Deal; Semiconductor Index Hits Record High

AMD Soars Most In Nearly A Decade On OpenAI Chip Deal; Semiconductor Index Hits Record High

Update (1005ET):

At the cash open, AMD shares jumped as much as 38% to new record highs following news of the OpenAI deal (see previous update for details). In fact, this intraday surge so far marks the largest share gain in nearly a decade, or about 9.5 years, dating back to the 52.3% gain on April 22, 2016.

 Record high.

Goldman analyst Peter Callahan says today is all about ...

 The deal between AMD and OpenAI sent the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index up 4%, reaching a new all-time high.

Totally not a bubble... 

*   *   *

 

The epic "circle jerk" continues (read how this works at the end of the note )...

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices surged in premarket trading after the company announced a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to roll out next-generation AI infrastructure. The first 1-gigawatt deployment of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs is scheduled to begin in the second half of 2026.

AMD and OpenAI have signed a definitive agreement establishing AMD as a core compute partner for OpenAI.

Well, that solves it. Won't be Intel...

The partnership begins with the Instinct MI450 series and rack-scale AI solutions designed for data centers that power OpenAI's chatbots.

Here's the structure of the deal:

  • Equity component: AMD granted OpenAI a warrant for up to 160 million AMD shares, vesting with deployment and performance milestones tied to capacity expansion (1 GW → 6 GW), AMD share-price thresholds, and OpenAI rollout goals.

AMD CFO Jean Hu said in a statement, "Our partnership with OpenAI is expected to deliver tens of billions of dollars in revenue for AMD while accelerating OpenAI's AI infrastructure buildout," adding, "This agreement creates significant strategic alignment and shareholder value for both AMD and OpenAI and is expected to be highly accretive to AMD's non-GAAP earnings-per-share."

"This partnership is a major step in building the compute capacity needed to realize AI's full potential," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated. He noted, "AMD's leadership in high-performance chips will enable us to accelerate progress and bring the benefits of advanced AI to everyone faster."

AMD shares in New York jumped as much as 25%.

What this also means is that despite the now explicit backing (and investment) of the White House, Intel failed to win this deal which makes it clear who the real Alphas are in the chip space. Surprisingly, in a sign of brief market rationality, NVDA stock is actually lower this morning (we doubt it lasts) as AMD takes away tens if not hundreds of billions in future chip revenue from the world's largest company. 

If AMD gains hold above 23.8% (April 9, 2025) through the end of the cash session, this would mark the largest daily increase since the 52.3% jump on April 22, 2016. 

Related, and a must-read (spoiler alert: some of the nation's top data center financiers weren't too happy we called it a "circle jerk" ): The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:05

The Cold, Hard Airport-Floor Truth

The Cold, Hard Airport-Floor Truth

By Michael Every of Rabobank

There is some irony that this Global Daily author, who has written about geopolitical events such as drone incursions into Europe regularly, was trapped in Munich airport on Friday night by what were reportedly military reconnaissance drones; had to sleep on the floor with 3,500 stranded souls like a scene from a zombie movie; was rerouted via other destinations so the door-to-door journey was 42 hours; and had his suitcase lost by the airline on the way out AND on the way back. However, it underlines anyone thinking current life is ‘normal’ is living in a bubble.

Europe, for all its talk, seemingly has no way of dealing with these drones. Whose are they? We don’t know. Why are they not being shot down when spotted - a lack of ammo or a lack of will? We don’t know. Given that the plan for an EU ‘drone wall’ was shot down immediately as unworkable --which it is given the scale of territory involved-- what is workable and allows people to work? Logically, without a plan we can expect more flights to be disrupted, with a growing economic impact.

Meanwhile, the world around us is in equal flux - but with some plans, both good and bad.

President Trump told CNN that Hamas faces “complete obliteration” if it refuses to cede power in Gaza, saying he’ll “soon know” if the group is serious about peace. Negotiators meet in Egypt today, so fingers crossed. Trump also reportedly Israeli PM Netanyahu to “take the win” and not to always be “so f***ing negative.” Either more massive violence or a sudden peace looms there – and both could prove transformative. Europe is merely an observer either way.  

There are unsubstantiated reports that China is providing Russia with satellite information to allow it to make missile strikes in Ukraine. Would that be a red line for Europe, or do European red lines there echo those of its policy over drone incursions?

The recent 100,000 SIM card plot to disrupt telecoms in New York around the UN general assembly was even larger than thought, says the US ABC, as it included New Jersey. Despite this being something which only a state would be capable of doing, and which only a few states would have even attempted, it isn’t being mentioned much by the media, either in the US or Europe.

Latin America remains on edge as the US Monroe Doctrine returns in force to push back against entrenched Russian, Iranian, Hamas/Hezbollah, and Chinese influence and whispers are that a move against Venezuela looms. Europe thinks an FTA with Mercosur is some kind of answer.

In Africa, ‘Trump’s peace hopes for Rwanda-Congo face threats’, says The Hill. Other locations also look concerning.

In domestic politics, the FT reports “enormous fear” given Trump’s threats against Soros and the non-profits sector, while a judge temporarily blocked the president from sending National Guard troops to Oregon.

In France, as he appoints new government ministers, PM Lecornu “tries to save skin by ruling out use of constitutional backdoor”, according to Politico; that’s as EU Commission President Von der Leyen faces another EU parliament confidence vote debate today.

In the UK, the government is considering banning repeat public protests; foreigners will be banned from claiming benefits, says the opposition Tory party, following the lead of Reform UK and Trump; yet Reform is seen likely to raise Kent council tax after its cost-cutting drive faltered, says the FT, showing there may be no way to cut spending in the UK, like the US, with the looming November national budget all about how much taxes rise, and on whom.

Japan’s first female PM, Sanae Takaichi, has already seen equities soar and 40-year bond yields do the same. She is seen as an Abe- or Trump-like figure, but with inflation now back, the BOJ slowly hiking, and the Yen nearly double the level vs the US dollar that it was when Abe launched his ‘three arrows’ well over a decade ago -- and the US unhappy about currency devaluations-- to say nothing about Japan’s domestic political dynamic, what is the plan?

In geoeconomics, it’s clearly protectionism and barter to avoid the weaponization of the US-centric financial system. For example, ‘China hawks grow queasy over Trump’s push for deals with Beijing’, says Bloomberg; ‘“Worse than Trump’s tariffs”: EU steel protections poised to pummel British industry’, adds Politico; ‘Chinese cars for Iranian metals: how sanctions revived barter trade’, notes Bloomberg; and ‘How China secretly pays Iran for oil and avoids US sanctions’, from the WSJ shows a “Hidden arrangement secured by prominent Chinese insurer connects Tehran with its biggest customer”.

Put that all together and we see that ‘America is now one big bet on AI’ (FT) as “It’s seen as the magic fix for every threat to the US economy.” Indeed, ‘Elon Musk Gambles Billions in Memphis to Catch Up on AI’, says WSJ, where “the city is divided over the massive power and water demands.” China is obviously all in in its own way. Naturally, the ‘EU pushes new AI strategy to reduce tech reliance on US and China’ (FT), with a plan for “digital sovereignty” – just without any of its own AI giants or the cheap energy needed to power it, and alongside rearmament and other acronymic wish-lists.

As a senior Wall Street figure just noted current AI mania only had bubble-like qualities, one might say what we currently have instead is merely ‘sparkling malinvestment’. Yet looked at politically, AI is a double-or-quits bet on a way to get us out of our current structural morass -- while destabilizing society in the process, warn some. And looked at geopolitically, it’s about the military: get military AI working properly and all bets are off. In fact, if one were deeply cynical one could argue regulators are happy to overlook wild market pricing at the moment in the pursuit of a private sector driven Manhattan Project.

Trying to some things up, Foreign Affairs magazine just published ‘Reading Schmitt in Beijing’, which argues the US drift away from both neoliberalism and liberalism mirrors its focus on China. Indeed, and that’s something I’d predicted as far back in late 2017: clearly think tanks and academics aren’t about their speed of thought.

Markets, once they finally get the gist of something, act much faster. For example, the main FT headline at the time of writing was all about gold: ‘‘Gold-plated Fomo’ powers bullion’s record-breaking rally’, as “Price has rocketed nearly 50% this year, its best performance since 1979, as institutional investors pile in”. Bitcoin is also back a fresh record high. I wonder why – and it isn’t all about “rate cuts!”, even if they do play a role in it.

Really, there’s nothing like a forced night’s sleep on a cold, hard airport floor to sharpen your focus on how the world actually works right now. If you still aren’t seeing it yourself, I suspect you may also get to experience it, or its equivalent, in the not-too-distant future.

Pack a spare blanket and toothbrush.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 10:00

Top Supreme Court Cases To Watch As Justices Reconvene

Top Supreme Court Cases To Watch As Justices Reconvene

Authored by Sam Dorman and Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

The Supreme Court is set to return on Oct. 6 for its 2025–2026 term, in which it will consider a series of cases that could affect major constitutional issues and impact President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The high court is expected to hear challenges to Trump’s policies and has already decided to hear arguments over Trump’s tariffs and attempts to fire high-level officials.

The Supreme Court will also consider whether states can ban men from playing in women’s sports, whether a ban on so-called conversion therapy violates free speech rights, and a variety of election-related cases that could affect the balance of political power in the United States.

Here are the top cases so far this term and what is at stake in each.

1. Trump’s Tariffs

In perhaps the most anticipated case this term, the high court will decide on the legality of a large swath of Trump’s tariffs.

Trump invoked an emergency powers law to impose reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries, as well as levies on Canada, Mexico, and China over the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States.

Several federal courts have ruled that those tariffs went beyond what the law allowed.

Under the Constitution, Congress has the power to impose tariffs, and it can delegate this authority to the president.

The Trump administration argues that the law, called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, authorizes the president to impose tariffs through a provision that grants the president the power to regulate importation.

However, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has pointed out that that section of the law does not explicitly use the term “tariffs.”

It blocked the tariffs, but has paused the effects of its ruling until after the Supreme Court issues its judgment.

The Supreme Court has set a consolidated oral argument for Nov. 5 in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections.

A truck carrying a shipping container at Port Newark Container Terminal in Newark, N.J., on April 10, 2025. President Donald Trump invoked an emergency powers law to impose reciprocal tariffs on almost all countries. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times

2. Removal of High-Level Bureaucrats

Through a series of high-profile firings, Trump has led the federal court system to revisit a 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent. The 1935 decision in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States held that Congress can set limits on the president’s ability to remove certain officials.

So far, lower courts have pointed to this decision as a basis for reversing Trump’s firings. Many of the lower court decisions have reached the Supreme Court’s emergency docket in recent months.

Although the justices have weighed in on some of those cases, they have not offered a final ruling on how far Congress can go in limiting Trump’s removal power.

That is expected to change soon, as the Supreme Court recently agreed to hear a case, Trump v. Slaughter, challenging Trump’s firing of a member of the Federal Trade Commission, Rebecca Slaughter.

That agency was also the subject of the decision in Humphrey’s Executor, which the Supreme Court has said it may be open to overruling.

In 1935, the court said Congress could restrict the president’s removal of Federal Trade Commission board members because they served a “quasi-legislative” or “quasi-judicial” role.

While the exact definitions of “executive” and “quasi-legislative” power remain uncertain, those questions will likely be central to the Supreme Court’s eventual decision.

The Supreme Court also said on Oct. 1 that it would hear oral arguments in January over Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook.

Trump sent Cook a letter on Aug. 25 stating that he was removing her “for cause,” citing “sufficient reason” to believe that she had made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. He invoked the Federal Reserve Act, which states that the president can remove a member of the board “for cause.”

Cook has argued that Trump did not cite a legally recognized “cause” and that his interpretation of the law would “destroy the Federal Reserve’s historic independence.” She has also denied the allegation of fraud.

Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook attends the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Aug. 23, 2025. Trump invoked the Federal Reserve Act to remove Cook “for cause,” citing “sufficient reason” to believe that she had made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. Jim Urquhart/File Photo/Reuters

3. Girls Athletics

In recent years, red states have advanced legislation to ban boys’ participation in girls’ sports. Two of those states, Idaho and West Virginia, are expected to appear before the Supreme Court this term to defend the legality of their policies on that issue.

The Supreme Court agreed to hear the cases after issuing another landmark decision in United States v. Skrmetti, which holds that states can ban hormone therapy or gender-altering surgeries for minors without violating the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment.

The high court is expected to address that same constitutional provision in the sports cases Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J.

In both cases, students are arguing that the state laws discriminate based on “transgender status” and therefore violate the Constitution.

Beyond that issue, the Supreme Court is expected to look at whether West Virginia’s ban violates a federal law known as Title IX of the Civil Rights Act.

That decades-old law bans sex-based discrimination by educational institutions that receive federal funding.

An appeals court said in 2023 that West Virginia violated Title IX.

The Trump administration, in a friend-of-the-court brief, said that the state’s policies are legally sound.

The plaintiff in the Idaho case, a college senior, has reversed course and stated an intention to not participate in women’s sports. The student has suggested that the case is therefore moot, or irrelevant, before the court.

It is unclear whether that particular case will now proceed to oral argument.

The court has not yet set a date for the hearing.

President Donald Trump, joined by female athletes, signs the “No Men in Women’s Sports” executive order in the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

4. Redistricting

After Louisiana redrew its congressional district map in 2022, a group of private citizens, along with civil rights groups, sued.

The map only contained one mostly-black district, even though that group of voters represents one-third of the state’s population.

The plaintiffs argued that this was done to dilute black voting power in Louisiana and that it violated the Voting Rights Act of 1964.

That legislation prohibits laws or policies that “deny or abridge the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color.”

The groups won in district court.

The judge ordered the state to draw the lines again and add another mostly-black district. Louisiana did so in 2024.

A group of non-black voters then sued, arguing that the redrawing based on race discriminated against non-minority voters.

The Supreme Court heard arguments in the case in March but declined to issue a ruling.

Instead, the court wanted more briefs and arguments from both sides about whether creating a second mostly-minority district violated the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment or the 15th Amendment.

The 15th Amendment prohibits voter discrimination based on “race, color, or previous condition of servitude.”

The outcome may have implications for the 2026 midterm elections. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and Democrats are looking to retake that chamber.

In 2022, Republicans won five out of Louisiana’s six congressional seats.

In 2024, after the new map was introduced, the GOP won four of those seats and Democrats won two.

That case will be argued again on Oct. 15.

Customers eat as they watch the election results at the Louisiana Pizza Kitchen in New Orleans on Nov. 5, 2024. In 2024, after the new Louisiana congressional district map was introduced, the GOP won four of the state's six congressional seats, one fewer than in 2022. Sandy Huffaker/AFP via Getty Images

5. Pregnancy Center’s Donor Lists

First Choice Women’s Resource Centers provides free counseling to parents experiencing unplanned pregnancies but does not perform abortions or give abortion referrals.

In late 2023, New Jersey Attorney General Matt Platkin accused the pregnancy center of violating the state’s Consumer Fraud Act by hiding its pro-life stance from clients but openly promoting it to its donor base.

He also accused the group of “misinformation” because it claimed to be able to reverse chemical abortions in certain circumstances.

Platkin subpoenaed First Choice’s donor records, but the organization resisted.

Donors have a right to anonymity, it stated, and should be protected from political retaliation.

First Choice filed suit to block the subpoena, alleging that New Jersey was violating its First Amendment rights, since the investigation was politically motivated.

It also argued that the subpoena violated its Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable search and seizure.

What followed was a complex series of court battles, which reached the Supreme Court in May 2024.

The court then declined to halt the subpoena.

The case continued in the lower courts, and in June, the high court revisited the matter and agreed to hear arguments this fall.

6. ‘Conversion Therapy’ Ban

Colorado instituted a ban on LGBT “conversion therapy” for minors in 2019.

The law prohibits licensed therapists from attempting to “change an individual’s sexual orientation, including efforts to change behaviors or gender expressions or to eliminate or reduce sexual or romantic attraction or feelings toward individuals of the same sex.”

Colorado therapist Kaley Chiles, who works with youth seeking to deal with unwanted same-sex attraction or gender dysphoria, pushed back with a federal lawsuit against the state in 2022.

Protesters gather in front of the Supreme Court as the court hears a case over banning gender procedures for minors, in Washington on Dec. 4, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The suit alleges that the law is a clear violation of Chiles’s First Amendment free speech rights.

District Judge Charlotte Sweeney of the U.S. District Court for the District of Colorado denied Chiles’s request to overturn the law in December that year.

Sweeney wrote that the law does not directly regulate Chiles’s speech; rather, it regulates her conduct as a state-licensed therapist.

Any infringement on her speech rights is “incidental,” according to the judge.

An appeals court later upheld that decision.

Colorado is one of 27 states, along with the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, that have restricted or banned conversion therapy for minors.

If the Supreme Court sides with Chiles, it may trigger suits against those laws.

Oral arguments are set for Oct. 7.

7. Hawaii’s Gun Restrictions

The court will take up a major gun case this term, considering the constitutionality of a Hawaii law that bans firearms on private property, unless the property owner has consented.

The case cites the 2022 Supreme Court decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, which states that firearm restrictions need to be consistent with the nation’s “history and tradition.”

Hawaii’s law states that if concealed carry permit holders want to take guns onto private property, including stores, restaurants, and hotels, they need permission, either verbally or through a sign.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld the restrictions in 2024. A group of Hawaiians, along with the Hawaii Firearms Coalition, told the Supreme Court that the Ninth Circuit’s decision analyzed U.S. history, specifically previous laws, in the wrong way.

The Trump administration similarly argued that the law fell foul of the 2022 ruling.

“Because most property owners do not post signs either allowing or forbidding guns, Hawaii’s default rule functions as a near-complete ban on public carry,” Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote in a court filing.

Hawaii has responded by defending the Ninth Circuit’s ruling, arguing that the Second Amendment does not override a property owner’s right.

“The rule can be upheld for the independent reason that it represents a valid governmental effort to vindicate property owners’ fundamental right to exclude by enacting a default rule that comports with the community’s reasonable expectations,” a brief from the state reads.

The case, Wolford v. Lopez, has not yet been scheduled for oral argument.

8. Death Penalty and IQ

In November 1997, Joseph Clifton Smith and an accomplice murdered Durk Van Dam in Mobile County, Alabama, bludgeoning him to death for $140, his shoes, and some tools.

Smith was convicted, and a jury decided that he should be executed.

But in 2002, the Supreme Court ruled in another case that mentally disabled convicts could not be executed because their mental capabilities reduce their culpability and ability to assist lawyers in trial.

Following that ruling, Smith appealed his case.

He had taken multiple IQ tests with scores ranging from 72 to 78.

In Alabama, the threshold for intellectual disability is an IQ score of less than 70.

However, since Smith’s lowest test had an error range of plus or minus three points, a psychiatrist testified that his IQ could be as low as 69, which would put him in the range to avoid execution.

Alabama's lethal injection chamber at Holman Correctional Facility in Atmore, Ala., on Oct. 7, 2002. Dave Martin/AP Photo

A district judge and an appeals court agreed with this reasoning, ruling that Smith could not be executed.

Alabama challenged those rulings, arguing that the courts should have taken the full range of IQ scores into account instead of the error margin of the lowest score.

Arguments were originally set for November, but were removed from the calendar in mid-September.

The court has not yet rescheduled.

9. Campaign Spending

The controversy over money in politics is returning to the Supreme Court this term in a case regarding to what extent political parties and candidates can coordinate their spending.

Decades ago, Congress passed a law called the Federal Election Campaign Act, which imposes limits on this type of spending.

Coordinated expenditures include such activities as making payments for political consultants, renting venues for rallies, and spending money on political advertising.

In 2022, then-Senate candidate JD Vance, then-Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio), and two Republican committees brought a lawsuit questioning whether those limits violated the First Amendment.

When an appeals court reviewed the case in 2024, it was sympathetic to the Republicans’ arguments but said its hands were tied because of a previous Supreme Court decision that backed the idea that Congress could regulate coordinated expenditures without violating the First Amendment.

Republicans argue that the 2001 decision in Federal Election Commission v. Colorado Republican Federal Campaign Committee left some room for challenges based on the First Amendment.

They also contend that the government lacked a legitimate basis for imposing the limits.

Audience members watch the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate at the University of Colorado's Events Center in Boulder, Colo., on Oct. 28, 2015. The Federal Election Campaign Act, which imposes limits on coordinated expenditures by political parties and candidates, was challenged in 2022 by a lawsuit questioning whether those limits violated the First Amendment. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The Federal Election Commission, which the Republicans are suing, has similarly criticized the law, so the Supreme Court has appointed another attorney to defend the lower court decision.

Oral arguments in the case, National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, have not yet been set.

10. Defense Contractor Liability

On Nov. 3, the Supreme Court is expected to consider whether defense contractors can be sued for liability over terrorist attacks in foreign countries. The case is Hencely v. Fluor Corp.

An Afghanistan veteran named Winston Hencely was critically injured in a 2016 suicide bombing. The terrorist attack occurred on a U.S. military base and was committed by the Afghan employee of a contractor who worked on the base.

An Army investigation found that the contractor, Fluor Corp., failed to properly supervise the bomber.

Hencely lost on the appeals level because of the court’s interpretation of the Federal Tort Claims Act, which generally shields the government from liability under certain circumstances.

One of those circumstances applies to the U.S. military during times of war.

Although Fluor Corp. was a contractor, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit held that the law’s protection for the federal government should be extended to companies such as Fluor.

U.S. Army soldiers retrieve their duffel bags after they return home from a nine-month deployment to Afghanistan at Fort Drum, N.Y., on Dec. 10, 2020. The Supreme Court is expected to consider whether defense contractors can be sued for liability over terrorist attacks in foreign countries. John Moore/Getty Images

11. Other Trump Cases

Besides the cases on Trump’s tariffs and his firing of officials, the Supreme Court may decide to weigh in on other challenges to the administration’s policies as they move up through the court system.

Many of the disputes have already reached the high court on its emergency docket, which lets the court temporarily allow or block executive actions while the case works its way through the lower courts.

As it has approached the 2025–2026 term, the Supreme Court has sent many cases back to lower courts, often allowing Trump to proceed with a particular action or policy.

For instance, it has allowed the Pentagon’s policy banning military troops with gender dysphoria, the administration’s withholding of billions of dollars in foreign aid, and deportations to third countries.

Several other cases are pending, including those challenging Trump’s plan to restrict birthright citizenship.

The Supreme Court ruled last term on procedural aspects of blocks to that policy but has yet to address underlying constitutional issues.

That could change, as the Trump administration asked the court on Sept. 26 to address whether Trump’s executive order seeking to restrict birthright citizenship is unconstitutional.

Combined, these cases present questions about the scope of executive authority and the nation’s separation of powers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 09:20

Samsung's Smart Fridge Turns Your Kitchen Into An Ad Billboard

Samsung's Smart Fridge Turns Your Kitchen Into An Ad Billboard

Samsung Family Hub refrigerators are being transformed into a digital ad billboard right in your own kitchen with a new software update, according to a new report. Like it or not, owners of these premium models, priced between $1,700 and over $3,300, will now see ads on the refrigerator's front-facing monitor whenever it sits idle. 

Android Authority spoke with a Samsung spokesperson who confirmed that an over-the-air software update will serve as an ad pilot program on Family Hub refrigerators, adding that the ads will "offer promotions and curated advertisements" designed to "strengthen the everyday value" of its home appliances for customers.

Here is the full statement from the Samsung spokesperson about the new ad program:  

Samsung is committed to innovation and enhancing every day value for our home appliance customers. As part of our ongoing efforts to strengthen that value, we are conducting a pilot program to offer promotions and curated advertisements on certain Samsung Family Hub refrigerator models in the U.S. market.

As a part of this pilot program, Family Hub refrigerators in the U.S. will receive an over-the-network (OTN) software update with Terms of Service (T&C) and Privacy Notice (PN). Advertising will appear on certain Family Hub refrigerator Cover Screens. The Cover Screen appears when a Family Hub screen is idle. Ad design format may change depending on Family Hub personalization options for the Cover Screen, and advertising will not appear when Cover Screen displays Art Mode or picture albums.

Advertisements can be dismissed on the Cover Screens where ads are shown, meaning that specific ads will not appear again during the campaign period.

Here is Android Authority's first take on the ad infestation that Samsung is about to unleash in the kitchen: 

It's still unclear which exact refrigerators are getting the ad infestation, but Samsung's current Family Hub-equipped lineup in the US starts at $1,800 and goes all the way up to $3,500. It doesn't seem like users can entirely turn off ads, which is a shame. Disconnecting the fridge from the internet might stop the ads, but you will also inevitably lose out on several smart features you paid for. If you have a Samsung refrigerator with a door display, let us know in the comments how your experience has been with them, and how you feel about ads coming to them.

Let's hope that with the arrival of humanoid robots in homes - likely by the end of this decade or early 2030s - these bots don't become the ultimate ad trackers that bombard consumers with targeted ads on other devices inside their own homes. We suspect an incoming ad infestation is creeping into vehicle infotainment systems, which is why it might be wise to buy an old Mercedes diesel from the 1970s or 1980s, with cassette players and essentially no chips, to preserve some peace of mind ahead of the 2030s. Also, the feds can't remotely brick old cars.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 07:45

CDC Says 98 People Sickened In Norovirus Outbreak On Royal Caribbean Ship

CDC Says 98 People Sickened In Norovirus Outbreak On Royal Caribbean Ship

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An outbreak of norovirus sickened 98 people on a Royal Caribbean cruise ahead of its final destination in Miami, said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sept. 30.

Royal Caribbean Cruises liner Serenade of the Sea leaves the access channel from Le Havre harbour, France, on May 8, 2019. Jean-Francois Monier/AFP via Getty Images

The outbreak on the cruise line’s Serenade of the Seas was reported to the health agency over the past weekend. Around 94 passengers onboard the ship reported being ill, along with four crew members.

More than 2,700 passengers and crew members are on board the ship, the CDC says. According to a cruise tracking service, the Serenade of the Seas departed San Diego on Sept. 19 and is slated to arrive in Miami on Thursday, as it made stops in Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia.

The “causative agent” was listed by the CDC as norovirus, a group of viruses that can cause severe diarrhea and vomiting. The primary symptoms listed by the agency on the ongoing outbreak were vomiting and diarrhea.

In response to the norovirus outbreak, Royal Caribbean said that it will increase cleaning and disinfection procedures on board the ship, collect stool specimens for testing, isolate crew and passengers who have symptoms, and consult with the CDC on its procedures and reporting cases to the agency.

Responding to the CDC’s report, a spokesperson for the cruise operator told The Epoch Times on Thursday that “the health and safety of our guests, crew, and the communities we visit are our top priority,” adding that the company’s staff “implement rigorous cleaning procedures, many of which far exceed public health guidelines.”

So far in 2025, there have been 19 gastrointestinal outbreaks on cruise ships. Fourteen of those outbreaks were caused by norovirus, according to the CDC.

An outbreak of the virus in July also impacted Royal Caribbean line Navigator of the Seas, which sickened 141 people out of more than 5,100 passengers and crew, the agency said.

Health officials say that symptoms of norovirus include vomiting, diarrhea, and nausea. The virus also spreads easily through contaminated food or surfaces, or through close contact.

Symptoms of the virus generally start 12 to 48 hours after exposure, the Mayo Clinic says. Symptoms such as vomiting and diarrhea tend to last one to three days.

While most people recover without treatment, some people—such as older adults or young children—have to seek medical attention due to dehydration caused by vomiting and diarrhea, the clinic also says.

The CDC says that there are around 2,500 reported outbreaks of norovirus each year, and the virus usually spreads when infected individuals spread it to others via direct contact.

In a normal year, according to the CDC, norovirus causes between 19 million and 21 million cases of vomiting and diarrhea, 109,000 hospitalizations, and 900 deaths across the United States. The virus is associated with about 495,000 emergency department visits, mostly in younger children.

“Norovirus can be especially challenging to control on cruise ships because of the close living quarters, shared dining areas, and rapid turnover of passengers,” the agency says. When the ship docks, norovirus can be brought on board in contaminated food or water; or by passengers who were infected while ashore.”

Norovirus can also persist on surfaces for days or weeks and is resistant to many common disinfectants, officials say.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 06:30

The Uncertain Future Of UK Oil And Gas

The Uncertain Future Of UK Oil And Gas

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • Labour is raising taxes and environmental standards on North Sea oil and gas while refusing to issue new licences, but insists hydrocarbons will remain part of the UK’s energy mix.

  • Wood Mackenzie research suggests up to 14 billion barrels of recoverable reserves may remain, far higher than regulator estimates, fuelling debate over future drilling.

  • The government is pushing for a just transition toward renewables while the Conservatives promise to remove net-zero requirements and maximise North Sea extraction.

Since the Labour Party came into office in the U.K. last year, many have wondered if oil and gas drilling will continue or whether we will witness an all-out shift to renewable energy. Prime Minister Kier Starmer has introduced stricter taxes on fossil fuel companies since coming into power, but has also said that oil and gas will continue as part of the energy mix for as long as it makes sense. So, as the investor environment in the U.K. North Seas becomes ever murkier, what can we expect?

In June, the U.K. government introduced stricter environmental regulations for fossil fuel companies with projects in the North Sea. Oil and gas firms must now account for the environmental impact of emissions from using or burning the fuels extracted. This follows a decision by a Scottish court earlier in the year, deeming the approval of Shell's Jackdaw and Equinor and Ithaca Energy’s Rosebank unlawful, meaning they required reassessment by the government.

While existing oil and gas projects can continue in the North Sea, albeit with companies paying higher taxes, the government has said it would not issue any new oil and gas licences, as it invests in a shift to green. This marks a distinct move away from the energy policy of the previous Conservative government, which strongly backed U.K. oil and gas operations. Oil and gas companies operating in the North Sea are taxed at around 78 percent, including the Energy Profits Levy introduced in 2022.

During his recent visit to the U.K., United States President Donald Trump discussed the country’s oil and gas potential. Trump said, “You have a great asset here, and we spoke about it: it’s called the North Sea.”

He added, “The North Sea oil is phenomenal… I want this country to do well, and you have great assets that you’re going to start using, I believe, under this Prime Minister,” addressing Starmer.

He said that his pro-fossil fuel agenda in the U.S. had helped drive down fuel prices and slowed inflation – even though fuel prices have actually risen since Trump came to office. 

In response, Starmer said that the Labour government plans to maintain a pragmatic approach to the country’s future energy mix, continuing to use North Sea oil and gas as required. He also emphasised the importance of reducing energy costs for consumers. Starmer said, “The mix will include oil and gas for many years to come from the North Sea – we’ve been clear about that for some time. But we also need to mix that with renewables, and it’s the mix that’s really important.” 

However, some believe that the government should be supporting U.K. oil and gas more strongly, as the North Sea still shows significant potential. The research company Wood Mackenzie recently estimated that there could be up to 14 billion barrels worth of recoverable oil and gas in existing North Sea fields, which is three times bigger than the four billion barrels estimated to remain by the U.K. regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA). The analysis was AI-powered and assessed the “recovery rates” – the proportion of oil and gas that can be viably extracted from the fields.

The report stated, If UK fields were able to match recovery factors from analogous global fields, an additional 9 percent could be recovered. If best-in-class recovery factors were matched, an additional 18 percent of recovery could be added… These scenarios would potentially add seven and 14 billion barrels of additional production, respectively, over the lives of the 100 largest fields.”

In contrast to the Labour government, the Conservative opposition recently said that it would remove all net-zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the North Sea if elected. The party leader, Kemi Badenoch, said the Party has a policy of “maximising extraction” to get “all our oil and gas out of the North Sea”. This policy is aimed at driving down consumer energy bills. However, previous failures from the former Conservative government to reduce household energy costs have made many wary of the Party’s promises.

The current U.K. government has introduced an array of energy policies and financial incentives in recent months to support a green transition and aims to achieve the net-zero target by 2050, which was written into law by then-Conservative leader Theresa May in 2019. The government believes that diversifying the energy mix will not only strengthen long-term energy security but will also, ultimately, drive down energy bills.

The focus for many now is a just transition. Many in the oil and gas industry are concerned about what a sudden withdrawal from the North Sea will mean for workers and communities in the region. The government now has the potential to use the new investor interest in the green energy sector to support a just transition and ensure people do not get left behind.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 05:00

How Europe's Cities Have Grown Since 1975

How Europe's Cities Have Grown Since 1975

Europe’s cities have changed dramatically in size and shape since 1975. Urban areas across the continent have sprawled outward, merging into large corridors of continuous development. This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu, highlights the urban growth of major European cities, showing how population and settlement patterns have evolved.

The data for this map comes from World Population Review and Copernicus.

The Largest Urban Areas

Moscow leads as Europe’s most populous city, with over 12.7 million people projected by 2025. Paris follows closely with 11.3 million, while London ranks third with nearly 10 million. These cities have long histories of urban development and continue to expand, both in terms of area and density.

Southern Europe’s Urban Growth

Madrid and Barcelona have a combined urban population exceeding 12.5 million. Italian cities like Rome, Milan, and Naples also feature prominently, reflecting decades of steady growth tied to industry and migration.

Fast-Growing Second-Tier Cities

Several cities outside the traditional top three have seen striking increases in population since 1975. Madrid’s urban population nearly doubled from 3.9 million to 6.8 million, while Kyiv grew from 1.9 million to nearly 2.8 million. Birmingham saw the most dramatic percentage rise—from just 583,000 to over 2.7 million.

From Lisbon to Saint Petersburg, most of the featured cities experienced substantial population growth over the past five decades.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: European Countries With the Most Immigrants on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 04:15

Germany In Shock: Merz's Media Show Vs. Economic Collapse

Germany In Shock: Merz's Media Show Vs. Economic Collapse

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The collapse of the German economy is now becoming visible even in the labor market. Yet instead of pushing for a political turnaround with deregulation measures and genuine relief, the federal government limits itself to empty rhetoric and media appearances. In Berlin, PR is mistaken for economic policy—propagandistic fragments are presented as proof of achievement.

It was a week of media presence for the Chancellor. Friedrich Merz staged visibility: speeches, press conferences, appearances on German Unity Day, and the first cabinet retreat at Villa Borsig. He even tackled the new swarms of drones—with emphatic rhetoric, as if these threats, according to panicked press reports, were undermining citizens’ trust in security and airspace control—and immediately called for border measures.

Had we not learned over the past decade that border control was impossible? Wasn’t this the mantra, particularly for the CDU, during the Merkel-era invasion crisis?

But never mind. It’s not just the borders crumbling due to political inaction and a lack of will to solve problems.

Rhetorically and Physically Present

Merz was omnipresent, rhetorically and physically. At the Unity Day ceremony in Saarbrücken, the Chancellor even attempted emotional bridges with the audience.

He invoked social cohesion, called for optimism and a “new beginning,” spoke of courage, initiative, and the challenges posed by autocracies, digitalization, and geopolitical change.

Germany, Merz said, stands in Autumn 2025 at a “decisive moment” in its history, a phase that may determine the nation’s future. Despite economic and security tensions, one must “look ahead with confidence and vigor” and strive for a “new unity” in the country. Citizens should not be paralyzed by fear but, like East Germans 35 years ago, dare their own new beginning.

What was meant as an appeal to the spirit of 1989 sounded more like empty morale-boosting slogans—subtle blame-shifting that puts the burden of the crisis on ordinary citizens.

Economically Bleak

The economic outlook is so grim that even Berlin’s normally insulated news bubble cannot entirely shield the Chancellor’s office from daily shocks in the German economy.

Mild Pressure, No Consequences

Fragments of criticism from Germany’s bureaucratic and union circles appear to have reached the Chancellor’s office. Industrial CEOs complain daily about ruinous energy costs. The grotesque regulations that strangle the country are conveniently ignored—they prevent the few innovative SMEs from becoming serious competition.

Yet when companies like Bosch cut 22,000 jobs, Mercedes scraps an electric vehicle project to return to combustion engines, and entire supply chains of basic industry vanish, political action is required.

But no one dares, even verbally, to strike at the root of this civilization-destroying policy—the green agenda shared by nearly all in Berlin, except the AfD. It embodies faith in centralized power in Brussels, paving the way for the “United States of Europe,” whatever its architects may envision.

Merz and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil—the true debt kings of our era—seriously believe that pumping a few hundred billion euros into failing projects will get the country moving again. An intellectual bankruptcy, and more: proof of structural delusion—ideological and intellectual.

Laughable “Reforms”

Merz’s response to deindustrialization and social crisis is surprisingly simple: a few media appearances, the “Made for Germany” coffee sessions, or announcing a “reform autumn” should suffice to prove the economy is turning around. It’s always the public’s bad mood, according to Merz—the eternal grumbler who simply doesn’t appreciate the hard work of policymakers.

In material terms, this government achieves nothing. In the distant future, companies might receive modest corporate tax relief—a few billion euros, laughable compared to a federal government budget of over €520 billion next year. A two-year temporary depreciation? A trivial gesture.

It is particularly cynical when the government celebrates simplified car registration or a new bureaucratic portal as groundbreaking deregulation while the administrative apparatus continues to consume billions unchecked.

For context: the ifo Institute estimates the direct and indirect costs of Germany’s bureaucracy at around €146 billion annually—over three percent of GDP.

In a country with a state share beyond 50%, this is nothing less than a confession of impotence: a document of inaction, overextension, or deliberate planning by the government—results unchanged.

Old Political Tales

Merz and Klingbeil repeat old political fables: bureaucracy will be reduced by €16 billion, eight percent of personnel cut. Believers may rejoice. Meanwhile, debates have already started about building new bureaucracies to manage the massive subsidy flows favoring green and military cronies in coming years.

Talk of deregulation is just a slogan, a hollow phrase, compulsively repeated by speechwriters. Reality: thousands of new positions at local and state levels, sold as “employment success.” Welcome to today’s political parallel universe.

It is telling that during this orchestrated week, neither the planned inheritance tax increase nor the end of spousal tax splitting proposed by Klingbeil were mentioned. All of this is media theater—distractions, smoke bombs—meant to suggest the problem has been recognized and addressed. In reality, it’s political simulation perfected to emptiness.

Actual Situation

The reality for the economy and citizens is very different. Merz allows the ever-increasing, grotesque CO₂ tax to pass without resistance—a bow to Brussels. Citizens feel the impact at the checkout as prices surge across daily essentials.

Meanwhile, municipalities respond to the green regulatory-induced economic crisis with tax hikes: the minimum business tax rate factor nationwide rises from 200 to 280 points—a costly measure that will eliminate thousands of jobs.

Since 2018, mismanaged policy has eliminated roughly 1.3 million private-sector jobs while the state created over 420,000 new public-sector positions—spinning the debt spiral ever faster.

A genuine reform would have broken this deadly cycle. It would have had the courage to finally address the migration crisis—rather than delaying debates over the migration-related citizens’ allowance through semantic smoke screens and political procrastination.

Nothing but Hot Air

Given the government’s disastrous record, one wonders: can’t they, won’t they, or aren’t they allowed? Whatever the reason for this political paralysis, Merz is the archetype of someone who simulates work with remarkable consistency—omnipresent, loud, center-stage—yet delivers nothing but hot air.

We know this game: the classic stalling tactic, backed by Berlin-Brussels consensus on the ideological agenda: social restructuring, centralized energy control, a monitored financial system, and the installation of a censored public sphere.

The media plays, channeling the 1990s, embodied by a Chancellor whose social media team reproduces tone, posture, and content from a past era, are proof. The Chancellor’s office believes it can regain air superiority over narratives and public opinion. Repeated messages, intensified public broadcaster propaganda, European censorship laws—all aimed to silence dissent and relegate serious opposition to “far-right conspiracy theories.”

In summary, this orchestrated week demonstrates once more how the political-media complex buys time by scattering sand into critics’ gears. Time to prepare the actual “reforms” underway elsewhere: a digital euro as a capital control, a UK-style digital ID, and accelerated wartime economic mobilization against an imminent Russian threat.

If this is the promised “autumn of reforms,” buckle up.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 03:30

Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally

Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally

According to a newly released report by Aon, geopolitical volatility - together with AI-related issues - was the fastest-growing business risk in the world. 

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, geopolitical risk rose from rank 21 in 2023 to rank 9 in 2025 and, according to business leaders, is expected to climb further to rank 5 by 2028.

AI-related risks meanwhile were ranked 49th by the experts surveyed in 2023, before rising to rank 29 in 2025. They are projected to come in eighth in 2028.

 Geopolitical Risk Rises Globally | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Broken down by continents, Asia is to experience the biggest increase in geopolitical risk, with the indicator expected to rise from rank 11 to rank 4, above the global average, by 2028.

In Europe, geopolitical volatility is already hugely elevated in rank 6 of all business risk. This is still projected to further increase until 2028, according to experts, when geopolitical volatility is believed to become the third-biggest risk in Europe.

North America is expected to come in only slightly below the global average, while the situation is more relaxed in Latin America.

Overall, the biggest business risk in 2028 (as well as 2025) will continue to be cyber attacks and data breaches.

Other than between 2023 and 2025, 2028 will see more of a change in the top 3, with increasing competition moving up and replacing business interruption.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 02:45

Supplying Tomahawk Missiles To Ukraine Will Destroy US-Russia Relations, Putin Warns

Supplying Tomahawk Missiles To Ukraine Will Destroy US-Russia Relations, Putin Warns

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that any Washington decision to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory would irreparably damage Moscow's relations with Washington.

The warning comes less than two months after Putin met with President Donald Trump at a summit in Alaska, which sought de-escalation in Ukraine and was focused on improving bilateral relations. But now Putin is making clear that these relations could be destroyed, also at a moment the extension to the New START nuclear treaty has left some breathing room for nuclear negotiations.

"This will lead to the destruction of our relationship. Or at least the emerging positive trends in this relationship. So I'm saying what I think. And how things turn out depends not only on us," Putin said in a fresh interview with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin, parts of which were widely published Sunday.

Image: US Navy

Given the Tomahawk missile has a range of at least 1,500 miles, it could potentially hit Moscow and offices of Kremlin leaders, unleashing the likelihood of runaway escalation toward WW3. This is basically what Moscow is now warning about.

Already the US has said it is assisting Kiev with long-range targeting, which has included daily drone warfare, sometimes reaching over 800 miles into Russia with strikes on energy facilities. Probably such intel-sharing had long been happening for years in the war.

Vice President J.D. Vance had last week indicated the US is looking into the European request to send Tomahawks, and the Kremlin has said it would be deeply surprised if the US took this step.

Still, Trump has voiced frustration with Putin, going so far as to call Russia a "paper tiger" for its inability to quickly and decisively defeat Ukraine.

Yet it should be remembered that Russia's actions are still only at the level of "Special Military Operation" and a full war mobilization has not been ordered.

Moscow has not revealed an intent to utterly destroy Kiev, and for the most part has not begun obliterating 'decision-making' centers, leaving open a chance for de-escalation.

Putin also last Thursday separately pointed out it was impossible to use Tomahawks without the direct participation of American specialists and thus any supply of these missiles to Ukraine would trigger a "qualitatively new stage of escalation."

"This will mean a completely new, qualitatively new stage of escalation, including in relations between Russia and the United States," Putin emphasized.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/06/2025 - 02:00

Cracker Barrel Dumps Woke Agency Responsible For Logo Change Amid Exec Departure

Cracker Barrel Dumps Woke Agency Responsible For Logo Change Amid Exec Departure

Cracker Barrel has fired the marketing agency responsible for its controversial woke logo design, which the company quickly backtracked on after public outcry. 

A Cracker Barrel sign featuring the old logo outside one of its restaurants in Florida City, Fla., on Aug. 27, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

In an Oct. 2 statement, the company said that it was ending its relationship with California-based strategic and creative growth consultancy, Prophet, which had advised them on brand refresh initiatives - including the recent logo and restaurant redesigns that did not go over well, to put it mildly. 

The company also accepted the resignation of SVP Laura Daily, who had been with the company since 2012. 

"We are grateful to Laura for her leadership, including being a driving force behind the growth of our retail business during her tenure, and thank Cammie for the meaningful contributions and impact she made through her nearly a decade at the Company," said CEO Julie Masino.

Masino - who gets to keep her job, announced the new logo on Aug. 19. The following day the company's market cap crashed by nearly $100 million. One week later, Cracker Barrel announced that it would return to the old logo. 

"We thank our guests for sharing your voices and love for Cracker Barrel. We said we would listen, and we have. Our new logo is going away, and our ‘Old Timer’ will remain," the company said in a statement. 

Other corporate shuffling includes the promotion of Doug Hisel - previously vice president (VP) of field operations, who is now the senior vice president (SVP) of store operations. He has been with the company for 18 years. 

Meanwhile, former employee Thomas Yun is rejoining the company as vice president for menu strategy and innovation. 

"These changes to our organizational structure, along with new leadership appointments and promotions, mark a strategic step forward as we sharpen our focus on consistently craveable food and warm country hospitality," said Masino. "This transition reduces layers in the organization as we bring a hyperfocus on ensuring both every plate served and every interaction with our guests reflects the care and quality we stand for."

Customers at a Cracker Barrel restaurant in Florida City, Fla., on Aug. 27, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

As the Epoch Times notes further, President Donald Trump had also called on Cracker Barrel to give up its new redesign. Trump welcomed the switchback in an Aug. 27 Truth Social post.

“Congratulations, Cracker Barrel, on changing your logo back to what it was,” he wrote. “All of your fans very much appreciate it. Good luck into the future. Make lots of money and, most importantly, make your customers happy again!”

Cracker Barrel announced its full fiscal year 2025 financial results on Sept. 17.

The company reported $3.48 billion in revenues for the year, up 0.4 percent from the previous fiscal year. Net income was up 13.3 percent, while earnings per share jumped 12.6 percent.

“Many elements of our plan are working well and delivering results, as evidenced by five consecutive quarters of comparable store restaurant sales increases and 9 percent adjusted EBITDA growth in fiscal 2025,” Masino said. EBITDA refers to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

“Looking ahead, there is much to be optimistic about, and our teams are focused on getting back to the momentum we created last fiscal year.”

For fiscal year 2026, the company is expecting revenues in the range of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion. It projects opening two new Cracker Barrel stores and shutting down 14 Maple Street units. Cracker Barrel acquired biscuit company Maple Street in 2019.

*  *  * THIS is a knife...

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 23:33

Newsom Says Trump Is Sending 300 California National Guardsmen to Oregon

Newsom Says Trump Is Sending 300 California National Guardsmen to Oregon

Submitted by Jacob Burg of  Epoch Times

Immigration protestors confront federal agents and California Army National Guardsmen in Los Angeles, on June 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

President Donald Trump is sending 300 members of the California National Guard to Oregon after a judge temporarily blocked him from deploying the Beaver State’s guard to Portland, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said on Oct. 5. 

Newsom vowed to fight the move in court.

The White House on Oct. 5 did not immediately confirm the deployment. The California National Guard referred questions to the Department of War. A War Department spokesperson declined to comment.

In a statement posted to his website, Newsom called Trump’s mobilization of hundreds of California National Guardsmen to Oregon a “breathtaking abuse of the law and power.”

“The Trump Administration is unapologetically attacking the rule of law itself and putting into action their dangerous words—ignoring court orders and treating judges, even those appointed by the President himself, as political opponents,” Newsom said.

“The commander-in-chief is using the U.S. military as a political weapon against American citizens. We will take this fight to court, but the public cannot stay silent in the face of such reckless and authoritarian conduct by the President of the United States.”

Months ago, Trump federalized California’s National Guard over Newsom’s objection following protests in Los Angeles against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

A federal judge on Oct. 4 temporarily blocked Trump from deploying the Oregon National Guard to Portland in response to violent protests targeting immigration officers.

“This country has a longstanding and foundational tradition of resistance to government overreach, especially in the form of military intrusion into civil affairs,” Judge Karin J. Immergut, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, wrote in her order.

“This historical tradition boils down to a simple proposition: this is a nation of Constitutional law, not martial law. Defendants have made a range of arguments that, if accepted, risk blurring the line between civil and military federal power—to the detriment of this nation.”

U.S. District Judge Michael Simon recused himself from the case when the Department of Justice filed papers with the court accusing Simon’s wife, Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-Ore.), of publicly criticizing Trump’s plan.

Immergut was randomly assigned to the case after the recusal, a court clerk told Simon.

National Guard in Portland, Chicago

Portland’s ICE building has been the scene of nightly protests, and Trump described Portland as a “war zone” rife with crime and unrest. Trump also called Chicago a “war zone.”

Trump ultimately authorized the deployment of 300 Illinois National Guard troops on Oct. 4 to protect federal agents and assets in Chicago.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson confirmed the deployment in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“Amidst ongoing violent riots and lawlessness, that local leaders like Pritzker have refused to step in to quell, President Trump has authorized 300 national guardsmen to protect federal officers and assets,” she said. “President Trump will not turn a blind eye to the lawlessness plaguing American cities.”

Pritzker accused the Trump administration of attempting to escalate tensions amid ongoing clashes between protesters and federal officers in the Chicago area.

“It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will,” Pritzker wrote in an Oct. 4 statement. “They will pull hardworking Americans out of their regular jobs and away from their families all to participate in a manufactured performance—not a serious effort to protect public safety.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 22:51

Missouri Governor Authorizes National Guard To Assist ICE Operations

Missouri Governor Authorizes National Guard To Assist ICE Operations

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe said on Sept. 30 that he has authorized the state’s National Guard troops to provide administrative and logistical support to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) law enforcement operations in the state.

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe delivers the State of the State address in Jefferson City, Mo., on Jan. 28, 2025. Jeff Roberson/AP Photo

The authorization came in response to a request from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to the Department of War (DOW), according to a statement released by the governor’s office.

It stated that National Guard troops will be authorized to assist with “administrative, clerical, and logistical duties,” such as data entry and case management at ICE processing facilities starting on Oct. 1.

They are authorized to assist ICE until Sept. 30, 2026, the governor’s office stated. Kehoe, a Republican, said that this support is intended to enable ICE personnel to focus on “core enforcement and security functions” across the state.

“Public safety, keeping Missourians safe, and upholding the rule of law is our administration’s top priority,” the governor said in the statement.

“The Missouri National Guard is uniquely equipped to provide this essential administrative support, and we are confident their contributions will be invaluable to immigration enforcement efforts.”

His office stated that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on July 25 authorized federal funding for members of the National Guard to provide support to DHS at ICE processing facilities through Title 32, which allows guard members to perform missions for the Army, Air Force, president, or war secretary with the permission of the governor.

Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, a Democrat, issued a statement denouncing the governor’s decision, saying that it would divert National Guard service members from their mission of protecting the public.

“Using the brave women and men of our National Guard as paper pushers and case managers at immigration facilities undermines their mission and the law, directs them away from the important storm-response and local public safety efforts Missourians care about, and marks another example of Missouri public policy operating for the interests of Washington elites rather than every day Missourians,” he stated.

The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) also condemned Kehoe’s move to authorize National Guard troops to assist with ICE operations amid the Trump administration’s ongoing immigration crackdown.

“With the backdrop of masked immigration agents breaking apart our families and communities, it is particularly concerning that the Governor is asking Guard members to voluntarily participate in this agenda,” Luz María Henríquez, executive director at the ACLU of Missouri, said in a statement.

Missouri’s authorization came just days after Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landy sent a letter to DOW on Sept. 29 requesting the deployment of 1,000 Louisiana National Guard troops to support law enforcement agencies.

The DHS also has asked the Pentagon and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker to allow the deployment of 100 military personnel to Illinois “for the protection of ICE personnel and facilities” after clashes erupted between protesters and federal agents outside an ICE processing facility in Broadview, Pritzker said.

Pritzker told reporters on Sept. 29 that he opposes the troop deployment.

Last week, President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, under Title 10, Section 12406 of the U.S. Code, in the wake of escalating clashes outside federal immigration facilities. In response, the state of Oregon filed a lawsuit on Sept. 28, alleging that Trump had exceeded his executive authority in ordering the deployment.

Trump has already deployed troops to Los Angeles and the District of Columbia, and he has threatened to send them to Baltimore,  New Orleans, and Memphis, Tennessee, as part of a broader fight against urban crime.

Tom Ozimek contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 22:10

Students Hold Walk-Out Protest Over California School Bathroom Policy

Students Hold Walk-Out Protest Over California School Bathroom Policy

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

About 60 students walked out of morning classes on Oct. 1 to protest their high school’s policy allowing male students who identify as transgender to use girls’ bathrooms, in Anaheim, California.

Eddie Ledesma, the brother of Lesley Ledesma (background wearing pink), speaks out against trans-identified males allowed to use the girls’ bathrooms at Esperanza High School in Anaheim, Calif. on Oct. 1, 2025. Courtesy California Family Council

Joining the students at a press conference at Esperanza High School, opponents of state polices allowing transgender-identifying males to compete in girls’ and women’s sports and use female bathrooms and locker rooms said it’s time for the Trump administration to follow through on its threats to withhold federal funding from schools accused of violating Title IX.

Sophia Lorey, outreach director at California Family Council and former college soccer athlete, told The Epoch Times the federal government “should start pulling and withholding federal funding, especially in states such as California that “continue to put girls in harm’s way.”

It’s time that these lawsuits start playing out,” Lorey said following the press conference.

Although many parents believe Title IX violations aren’t an issue if their children aren’t playing sports, she said, the walkout showed that all girls in high school who simply want to safely use the restroom are affected, Lorey said.

California lawmakers in 2013 passed Assembly Bill 1266, which allowed males who identify as transgender to use girls’ restrooms.

At the walkout—attended by about 35 female and 25 male students—Lorey accused state lawmakers of failing to protect girls.

“These students have taken it into their own hands to lead a student walkout, to stand strong and say they are not OK with boys in the girls’ restrooms,” she said.

The girls voiced concerns about a male student using the girls’ bathroom, and that it makes them feel uncomfortable and unsafe.

Lesley Ledesma, a junior student who led the walkout, said a transgender-identifying male has been using the girls’ restrooms. And, when she complained to the school administrators, she was told that if she felt uncomfortable sharing the bathroom with him, she could use the one in the nurse’s office instead.

“This felt like a slap in the face to me,” she said. “As a young woman who has used the girls’ bathroom my entire life, I was now being asked to step aside. It didn’t feel fair. It didn’t feel respectful. It felt like my concerns, and the concerns of other girls, were being overlooked.”

Sophie Lorey, a former college soccer player for Vanguard University in Costa Mesa, Calif., poses for a photo at the California State Capitol building in Sacramento, Calif., on Aug. 28, 2023. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Ledesma, who has attended Esperanza since her freshman year, said the incident stripped away the sense of safety she once felt at school.

Everyone deserves dignity,” she said. “But dignity cannot come at the cost of someone else’s sense of safety. We must find a solution that protects the rights and feelings of all students, not just some.”

Eddie Ledesma, her brother, said it’s hard to watch his sister struggle.

“I want her and all the other girls here to feel safe in a place [that] should be private,” he said. “This isn’t about hate. It’s about respect.”

Sonja Shaw, president of Chino Valley Unified, speaks at a press conference outside the California state Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., on Aug. 14, 2023. Courtesy of California Family Council

Sonja Shaw, Chino Valley Unified school board president and a parental rights advocate, said at the walkout that because gender ideology has been normalized to the point where girls are told to sacrifice their privacy, safety, and dignity to accommodate boys in restrooms, the fight to protect girls has become a nationwide effort.

“This isn’t progress. This is regression. This is hate on girls,” she said. “This is the hill that we will die on to protect our kids. We are done. We’re not playing these games.”

If California continues to push gender ideology in schools, the problem will only get worse, she said.

“We have allowed radicals and special interests to push this madness, and too many officials have stayed silent or defended policies that put children at risk.”

Shaw said via text message to The Epoch Times following the press conference that “it’s not just time to consider withholding federal funding, it’s already time to act.”

The governor, state legislators, California Interscholastic Federation, and “too many school boards,” she said, have made it very clear they’re not budging on this issue.

“Title IX was written to protect girls, not erase them,” Shaw said. “If schools and states refuse to comply with that, then federal funding should be pulled.”

President Donald Trump, joined by women athletes, signs the “Keeping Men out of Women’s Sports” executive order in the East Room at the White House on Feb. 5, 2025. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s executive orders recognize two sexes—male and female—and make it clear that only females belong in girls’ and women’s sports and in female bathrooms and locker rooms.

‘Sex’ is not a synonym for and does not include the concept of ‘gender identity,’” read Trump’s Jan. 20 executive order “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.”

“‘Gender identity’ reflects a fully internal and subjective sense of self, disconnected from biological reality and sex and existing on an infinite continuum, that does not provide a meaningful basis for identification and cannot be recognized as a replacement for sex.”

The president also signed an executive order titled “Keeping Men out of Women’s Sports” in February.

The two orders reversed Biden-era Title IX policies and reinstated regulations from Trump’s first term as president. The back-and-forth changes in regulations have led to legal disputes about Title IX interpretation and enforcement.

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The Trump administration on Sept. 30 warned of legal action against the Minnesota Department of Education and the Minnesota State High School League for allegedly failing to comply with Title IX, which prohibits sex discrimination in federally funded educational programs.

In June, the U.S. Department of Education concluded its Title IX investigations into the California Department of Education and the California Interscholastic Federation for allegations of discrimination against women and girls on the basis of sex. In both cases, the California Department of Education and the Interscholastic Federation were found to be in violation, and Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said the Trump administration would “relentlessly enforce Title IX protections for women and girls.”

The California Department of Education has authority over California Interscholastic Federation, which oversees 1.8 million high school students and more than 750,000 student-athletes, according to the DOJ.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks in Oakland, Calif., on July 11, 2024. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times

In July, the Department of Justice (DOJ) launched a lawsuit against California, alleging the state’s laws promoting transgender athletes violate Title IX by depriving girls of equal athletic opportunities.

California is on the wrong side of the law and the wrong side of history,” U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said in a statement. “Women deserve dignity, respect, and an equal opportunity to compete on their own sports teams. The time for talk is over. California must comply with Title IX and end its civil rights violations against women.”

Tony Hoang, executive director of Equality California, an LGBT civil rights group, said in June that the federal education department’s findings were “a dangerous distortion of Title IX and a direct attack on transgender youth in California.”

“Let’s be clear: this isn’t about fairness in sports and never has been — it’s about a federal administration weaponizing civil rights laws to target transgender students and force California to comply with their hateful anti-transgender agenda,” Hoang wrote in a statement. “Transgender youth belong in our schools, on our teams, and in our communities — without apology and without exception.”

The governor’s office did not respond to an inquiry by publication time.

In his own podcast aired in March, Newsom told his guest, conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated last month at a college campus in Utah, that allowing men to compete in women’s sports is “deeply unfair.”

Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener praised Newsom for his past efforts to defend and support people in the LGBT community and criticized the governor for the remark.

The governor has since discussed fairness in sports, while opposing federal attempts to roll back state laws and policies.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 21:00

"We're At A Tipping Point" - Trucking Industry Facing "Horrible" Rates, Tariffs, Werner CEO Says

"We're At A Tipping Point" - Trucking Industry Facing "Horrible" Rates, Tariffs, Werner CEO Says

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves,

At the WEX OTR Summit, Derek Leathers, chairman and CEO of Werner Enterprises, warned of tight capacity and higher operating costs in the trucking industry.

“We’re at a tipping point,” Leathers told attendees. “Capacity is leaving the market little by little. The industry needs significant rate increases to sustain itself. This isn’t just about survival — it’s about making sure trucking can continue to deliver America’s goods safely and reliably in the years ahead.”

WEX, a global commerce platform that simplifies the business of running a business, held its summit Wednesday through Friday in San Antonio, Texas.

The event brought together over 150 leaders from the over-the-road trucking industry for two days of insight, innovation and collaboration.

With the theme of “The Road Ahead,” this year’s summit features keynotes, and strategic discussions on the trends shaping transportation, including fuel management, fraud protection, payments technology and more.

The second day of the conference featured a keynote address from Leathers, who cited weak rates, new tariffs, driver shortages and cargo theft as key risks — even as nearshoring fuels U.S.–Mexico trade growth.

Leathers, whose company is one of the largest U.S. trucking and logistics providers, noted that freight rates have been challenging in recent years, leaving many small carriers unable to reinvest in equipment or operations.

Omaha-based Werner Enterprises was founded in 1956 and has around 8,000 trucks and over 24,000 trailers. The company provides service across North America.

“What’s going on in the freight environment right now? Obviously, rates have been depressed, and although it is stable, they are stably horrible for the most part over the last several years, well below people’s operating costs in many cases. At a minimum, not a reinvestable rate level,” Leathers said.

Tim Hampton, left, general manager and senior vice president of WEX over-the-road and WEX Capital, and Derek Leathers, the chairman and CEO of Werner, during the presentation, “State of the Road: Navigating the Economy and Opportunities Ahead” on Thursday

With Class 8 truck orders at historic lows and OEMs scaling back production, he predicted it could take years to rebuild manufacturing capacity, leading to higher truck prices “at the time we can least afford for them to be more expensive.”

Tariffs squeeze supply chains

Tariffs were another key focus of his address. Leathers cautioned that only about half of the tariff impact has reached consumers so far, with the rest absorbed by suppliers and retailers — a strain he expects will increasingly filter through the supply chain. 

He also raised concerns over new tariffs on trucks made in Mexico, despite USMCA’s trade protections, arguing they will further inflate equipment costs.

“On the truck side, two thirds of all or three fourths of all truck makers actually exist and make their trucks in Mexico. If I had been betting on this stage a year ago, I would have lost that bet because I would have said that USMCA would supersede and that there would be no additional tariffs on trucks from our neighbors. Clearly that is not the case as we stand here today,” Leathers said.

Leathers also highlighted the industry’s growing safety and compliance challenges, including renewed enforcement of English-language proficiency rules for CDL holders and the scrutiny of B-1 visa drivers operating cross-border routes. 
Nearshoring strengthens U.S.–Mexico trade

Looking at broader trends, he pointed to nearshoring as a lasting shift that will deepen U.S.–Mexico trade ties. Werner already moves more than 300 cross-border loads daily, a number he expects to grow as U.S. companies boost investment in Mexico.

“Mexico is the only neighboring country or even nearshoring option that actually has good demographics,” Leathers said. “Very few places in the world do and Mexico actually does have as many people coming into the population. as they’re losing from the population and that’s true for the next 10 to 20 years.”

Cargo theft and supply chain security

Beyond the macroeconomic headwinds, Leathers also addressed rising cargo theft, calling it a “terrifying” trend fueled by organized crime. He urged shippers and carriers to strengthen vetting and technology safeguards to protect supply chains.

“Cargo theft has continued to rise. I think when you see a population that feels underdressed, that’s when risky behavior seems to always increase over time,” Leathers said.

“I think this is an area where not having proper vetting of every single man or woman on the road makes a difference. We know factually speaking from the FBI and others, there are in fact many criminal organizations outside the United States that are heavily involved in this work. There are organizations inside the U.S. as well, but the numbers are staggering.”

Trucking leaders say data will drive sustainable freight

Executives from FedEx, J.B. Hunt, and NFI Industries said the trucking industry’s path to sustainability hinges on efficiency and data-driven reporting, as customers and regulators press for greater transparency.

Speaking at the “Driving Green with Data: Executive Insights on Sustainability and Reporting” panel on Thursday, FedEx Express executive Mickey Black highlighted the company’s pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2040. 

“That commitment gave the entire organization a clear mandate,” Black said.

J.B. Hunt’s Jared Mounce outlined the carrier’s 32% greenhouse gas intensity reduction target by 2034, stressing that intensity goals better reflect efficiency as freight volumes grow.

NFI’s Alexa Branco emphasized the importance of tracking fuel consumption, idling, and emissions intensity to prove ROI and prepare for stricter reporting.

Panelists agreed shippers increasingly require emissions reporting in contracts, some now demanding lane- or package-level detail.

Sarah Booth, director, Sawatch Labs; Alexa Branco, director of sustainability, NFI Industries; Mickey Black, managing director global vehicles and surface fuel, FedEX; Jerrod Mounce, vice-president of energy & sustainability, J.B. Hunt at the WEX OTR Summit in San Antonio, Texas on Thursday. 

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 18:40

Nearly One-Third Of EV Charging Attempts Fail, Report Finds

Nearly One-Third Of EV Charging Attempts Fail, Report Finds

By Thomas Wasson of FreightWaves

A newly released report by ChargerHelp! shows that while 64% of Americans now live within two miles of an electric vehicle charging station, nearly one-third of charging attempts fail. Despite charging infrastructure showing 98.7% to 99% uptime rates, only 71% of charging attempts actually succeed, according to the 2025 EV Charging Reliability Report.

The report analyzed more than 100,000 sessions across 2,400 chargers. The report argues that instead of focusing on site uptime statistics, the first-time charge success rate (FTCSR) provides a more accurate measure of the driver experience.

“Uptime tells us if a charger is available, but it doesn’t tell us if a driver can actually plug in and get a charge on the first attempt,” said Kameale Terry, CEO of ChargerHelp!, in an interview with FreightWaves. “First-time charge success captures the real driver experience, and by centering on this metric, the industry can close the gap between availability and usability and build the trust needed for mass adoption.”

The complexity of EV charging stems from multiple software systems that must work in harmony, explained Terry, who has nearly a decade of experience in the space.

“Charging stations and electric vehicles are literally computers,” Terry said. “It’s all about these handshakes and how one software understands another software. If you’ve ever been in the software space, then you probably know that sometimes software doesn’t really understand one another.”

When any of these systems sends out firmware or software updates, compatibility issues can arise. As Terry notes, “Sometimes it may create a bit of a wrinkle in that system … maybe the vehicle itself, the battery management system, doesn’t really understand what the charging station is asking of it.”

These technical barriers create real-world problems for EV operators. In one example, a fleet driver might arrive at a station showing a green “available” indicator, only to find that after plugging in, the station fails to initiate authentication or begins the process but returns to the available screen without completing a charge.

Unlike Tesla’s vertically integrated system, most charging infrastructure involves multiple companies developing separate software components for vehicles, hardware, charge management systems, payment processing and connectors. This fragmentation creates interoperability challenges that directly impact consumers.

The report also identified trends in infrastructure aging. Success rates drop from 85% after the first year at new stations to approximately 70% after three years. This often happens because older hardware cannot be upgraded to newer protocols without significant equipment replacement.

“With older stations, some architecturally inside the unit itself cannot be upgraded to the new protocol,” Terry explained. “You would actually have to deploy a new piece of equipment into that unit in order to update it.”

This creates an added wrinkle for site owners using legacy infrastructure. While new vehicles are tested with current charging stations before deployment, they aren’t typically tested with older charging infrastructure, creating potential compatibility gaps.

Another challenge is regulatory oversight limitations. Unlike gasoline pumps, which undergo regular inspections by state authorities, EV charging stations face limited regulatory supervision. While weights and measures departments do monitor publicly deployed charging stations, their focus is primarily on ensuring consumers receive the electrons they’re paying for, not overall system reliability.

“Even if the station isn’t functioning at all, you wouldn’t get your sticker. They’re more so making sure that you’re not cheating the consumer,” Terry explained, adding that private fleet charging infrastructure falls outside this regulatory framework entirely.

The report recommends three key industry improvements: adopting FTCSR as a central metric, implementing preventive maintenance programs rather than relying on short-term hardware fixes, and establishing a collaborative industry approach to standardize protocols and share data.

Despite these challenges, Terry remains optimistic about the future. “It’s a solvable problem,” she said. “Even gas cars, switching from the horse and buggy to gasoline cars … was not an easy thing. But somebody figured it out. We got roadways, we got vehicles, and now we’re inside of this new kind of transition.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/05/2025 - 17:30

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