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Kremlin Highly Doubtful Trump Will Authorize Tomahawks For Ukraine

Kremlin Highly Doubtful Trump Will Authorize Tomahawks For Ukraine

Earlier this week Vice President J.D. Vance raised eyebrows amid possible major escalation with Russia in acknowledging that the US administration is "looking at" supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk long range missiles, at the request of the Europeans.

Interestingly, the Kremlin has openly voiced that it is highly doubtful that President Trump would do such a thing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Tuesday remarks that he does not believe the Trump administration has made a final decision, but that ultimately he would be "surprised" if the US went through with it.

"I think this is primarily the result of European pressure on Washington, and Washington wants to show that it takes into account the opinions of its allies. I don't think we have seen the final decision," Lavrov told reporters at the Valdai Discussion Club in Moscow.

"The Americans don’t supply Tomahawks to everyone," he explained. "Among Europeans, if I’m not mistaken, they supply them to Spain and the Netherlands; they’re somewhat wary of the rest."

And he followed with: "If they believe that Ukraine is a responsible nation that will use them responsibly, that would be surprising to me."

Instead, the Zelensky government has shown itself ready and willing to mount long-range attacks even on Moscow, and in the past, the Kremlin complex itself, with drones.

Drones can only do limited amounts of damage, but a Tomahawk with an immense range of 1,500+ miles - capable of reaching Moscow - could unleash serious destruction.

Still, on Monday Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had downplayed the Tomahawks as any kind of 'game-changer'. "No magical weapons exist, and Tomahawk or other missiles simply won’t be a game changer," he said.

Regardless, if the US does give the greenlight, it would be flirting with WW3, given Ukraine could turn around and begin targeting Moscow's own decision-making centers.

Yet some influential officials in the Trump administration are still pushing the idea hard, including Keith Kellogg...

Hopefully Trump resists the fanaticism of these hawks on what could prove crucial 'red line' for Putin, and instead does more to pursue de-escalation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 21:00

ANTIFA By Night, NGOs By Day: Left-Wing Political Machine Runs 24/7 Outside Portland ICE Facility

ANTIFA By Night, NGOs By Day: Left-Wing Political Machine Runs 24/7 Outside Portland ICE Facility

Real America's Voice correspondent Ben Bergquam visited the ICE facility in South Portland, exposing how the left-wing political machine operates, from Antifa attacks on the building at night to dark-money–funded NGOs providing support to illegal aliens by day. Together, this paints the picture of how the left's machine works to subvert the nation, and in extension, national security

Let's begin with Bergquam's late-night reporting outside the ICE facility in Portland that shows the federal government personnel countering Antifa warriors who attempted to undermine the Trump administration's deportation program of criminal illegals.

By early morning, Antifa cells scatter like ants, only to be replaced by workers from leftist NGOs, according to Bergquam, who spoke with Steve Bannon. He noted that these NGO workers are "aiding and abetting illegal aliens" outside the courthouse in Portland. 

Bergquam added, "These leftist NGOs are also part of the networks of telling these illegals when ICE is coming to their communities - it's all a coordinated effort." 

To simplify for readers, Bergquam is merely presenting Antifa and leftist NGOs as two arms of the same left-wing machine - one uses color revolution-style street tactics, the other institutional support, all in an effort with one goal: to obstruct President Trump's deportations of criminal illegal aliens. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 19:20

Trump's Economic Statecraft Now Covers Trade, Capital And "Other"

Trump's Economic Statecraft Now Covers Trade, Capital And "Other"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

What, no payrolls Friday?

Most in markets will be focusing on the US government shutdown --the first in seven years-- that just started. For example, if it isn’t reversed quickly we won’t get the US payrolls report this Friday. The same data series that’s just been wildly revised, again, and which some see as full of methodological holes as a Swiss cheese in capturing the reality of the US economy, might not be there for people to all speculate on at the pre-arranged time. The horror!

Meanwhile, the White House has withdrawn its nominee to lead the BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics and that for chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, so who knows when the data will mean anything again anyway.

To say there is a lot else going apart from “What, no payrolls Friday?” is again a staggering understatement.

If we are talking shutdowns, how about the Taliban shutting down the internet and mobile phone networks in Afghanistan to prevent “vice” – and all flights in and out having been grounded as a result? It may not add a lot to world GDP, but that’s an entire country that just dropped off the 21st century map. But ‘no payrolls’.

In the Middle East, Trump said Hamas has “three or four days” to respond to his 20-point Gaza plan or it will “pay in hell”, as the Qatari PM seemed to backtrack and say the plan still needs “clarification and discussion”, and Turkey’s spy chief arrived in Doha to hold talks with the designated terror group. The BBC has reported Hamas is likely to reject the deal, which regional experts think could presage an explosion of military action before it is then finally agreed the hard way – but nothing there is clear.

In Europe, the EU is to meet to discuss setting up a drone wall, no easy task, if it can be done at all, with Germany and the pro-EU UK Guardian newspaper both noting the EU isn’t set up for these kind of military crises and something needs to change: logically, either more power has to be centralized or delegated back to the member states. Both would imply massive changes in how politics, economies, and markets would operate over time. Or, neither happens and things like drone walls don’t either. Which has its own implications. That’s as Denmark’s PM again warns that Russia’s hybrid war is “only the beginning”, while Bloomberg talks of Europe’s east wrestling with a hybrid war “of drones and migrants.”

The Trump admin notified Congress of a major expansion to an existing arms sale to Estonia, quadrupling its planned long-range ATACMS munitions and doubling HIMARS launchers, which Russia will obviously see as a huge provocation.

In Latin America, Venezuela strengthened its alliance with Russia through the approval of a Strategic Partnership Treaty: the sides are clear and the geographical flashpoints are too.

Moreover, Secretary of Defence/War Hegseth told US generals, in the Wall Street Journal’s words, to do things his way or quit - and lose weight, as Trump told them that the US military could be used to fight the “enemy within”, where some US cities are so dangerous that they could become training grounds for them.

Meanwhile, International Criminal Court staff are reportedly printing files and preparing for a blackout as US sanctions against them loom.

In parallel geoeconomics:

  • The US vowed it will maintain tariffs even if the Supreme Court rules against it – and it does have other legislative tool available to do so if needed.
  • The South China Morning Post asked ‘Has Lutnick signalled the end of Taiwan’s ‘Silicon Shield’ against Beijing?’ where the “Trump administration is pressuring Taiwan to shift 50% of chip production to the US or risk losing US protection against China” – a demand which Taiwan has responded to with a ‘No’.
  • The US government is to take a stake in Lithium Americas to boost its Nevada project, as once again the state steps into critical supply chains.
  • China halted purchases of Australian BHP’s iron ore after price talks broke down, where some market participants said it reflected both a push for lower prices and a shift to CNY-denominated contracts – a staggeringly important development which I have long flagged would be logically inevitable. What does Australia do in response?
  • The answer could be Canberra reportedly floating allowing allies, such as the US and UK, to access its critical minerals that will be developed through its own new state-backed fund. That doesn’t help with iron ore unless the US starts making steel again on a vast scale: remind me what US tariffs are supposed to be for again?
  • Elsewhere, a $1.4bn Tazara rail deal will see China’s state-owned CCECC refurbish and operate the ageing Tanzania-Zambia railway, securing Africa’s copper belt direct access to vital shipping links that then head to China. If I recall correctly, Europe is talking about setting up a committee with an acronym to discuss similar things perhaps happening at some point in the future.

In a different space, yesterday saw the White House unveil ‘TrumpRx’, a drug-buying website alongside a related Pfizer pricing deal, where the company gained a three-year grace period exempting it from national-security-related pharma tariffs, while US consumers can buy cheap drugs via the government. Lowering the cost of key goods so consumers have the purchasing power to buy more expensive made-at-home products in other categories is a statecraft tool as old as the hills. Indeed, the above shows how US economic statecraft covers: Trade (US-centric system with no large US trade deficits); Capital (Money must flow where it ‘needs to’ – i.e., Lithium and rare earths); and Other (Whatever else it takes, wherever it takes it to achieve the other two).

And in the background, gold is close to another record high --and the most overbought in a very long time-- while US equities are also at record highs as if none of the above matters at all.

Perhaps the real threat of ‘no payrolls Friday!’ is it leaves Mr Market with too much free time to focus on more worrying issues and questions than ‘Buy all the things!’ and ‘How do I play the higher/lower than game this month?’ 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 18:55

OpenAI Readies TikTok-Style App Powered Only By AI Videos

OpenAI Readies TikTok-Style App Powered Only By AI Videos

OpenAI is preparing a standalone social app powered by its Sora 2 video model, according to Wired. The app “closely resembles” TikTok with a vertical video feed and swipe-to-scroll, but only features AI-generated clips — users can’t upload from their camera roll.

Wired reported that Sora 2 will generate clips of 10 seconds or less inside the app, though limits outside the app are unclear. TikTok, which started with a 15-second cap, now allows 10-minute uploads. The app will also offer identity verification, letting Sora 2 use a person’s likeness in generated videos. Others can tag or remix that likeness, but OpenAI will notify users whenever it’s used — even if the video isn’t posted.

Wired adds the software will refuse some videos due to copyright, but protections may be weak. The Wall Street Journal reports rights holders must opt out to keep their content from appearing in Sora 2’s outputs.

OpenAI is alerting talent agencies and studios to the opt-out system, which doesn’t allow blanket exclusions across all of a creator’s work. Instead, agencies can flag violations. “Our general approach has been to treat likeness and copyright distinctly,” said Jason Kwon, OpenAI’s chief strategy officer.

The Journal notes OpenAI has struck deals with some studios and that its new tools echo ChatGPT’s image generator, which quickly filled the internet with Studio Ghibli-style memes. “Given the intense competition in the space, I think they think, ‘maybe we will ask for forgiveness instead of asking for permission,’” said Georgetown Law’s Kristelia García.

OpenAI’s move comes as Hollywood pushes for stronger consent and compensation rules, and as courts weigh whether training on copyrighted content is “fair use.” The company is also seeking approval from California and Delaware attorneys general for a corporate restructuring that could affect investor funding, the Journal reports.

“For so many in the AI space, this move validates longstanding fears and underscores why we need guardrails,” said Dan Neely, CEO of Vermillio.

By launching a social platform around Sora 2, Wired suggests OpenAI is not only chasing TikTok’s momentum but also trying to lock users into its ecosystem. Building a community around AI-only content could make switching to rival tools less appealing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 18:30

Freight Expected To Roll On During Shutdown

Freight Expected To Roll On During Shutdown

By John Gallagher of FreightWaves

After the federal government shut down at midnight Tuesday, freight supply chains, in the short term, should be largely unaffected.

In most cases, federal agencies that run the programs and services affecting goods movement are either funded by mechanisms like the Highway Trust Fund – which are separate from the annual appropriations process – or their employees are deemed essential and will therefore continue to work during a funding lapse.

This year, however, the Trump administration has threatened to use a shutdown as justification for additional federal workforce reductions, but it’s unclear how government employees will be affected, including those working at agencies within the U.S. Department of Transportation.

“DOT modal agencies are largely charged with safety functions, so anytime you cut from that you run the risk of decreasing safety,” Jameson Rice, a transportation lawyer and partner with the law firm Holland & Knight. “It may not be felt immediately, but you will in the long term.”

In the short term, however, safety functions related to domestic goods movement, such as roadside inspections carried out by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, and rail accident investigations and safety advisories under the Federal Railroad Administration, would continue, according to DOT’s most recent funding lapse shut-down plans.

At the U.S. Maritime Administration, where approximately 25% of its workforce is expected to be furloughed, vessel security and port infrastructure programs would continue using “carry forward balances” as would staff needed to oversee those programs and services.

Cargo inspection of imports through land borders and seaports would also continue, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Roughly 93% of the agency’s 68,000-person workforce are expected to be retained and continue to work during a funding lapse, the Department of Homeland Security’s latest contingency plan notes.

However, while most CBP employees are considered essential, that may not necessarily be the case at other agencies that have inspection oversight of cargo shipments, such as the Food and Drug Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Agriculture, and the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

For example, during a lapse in appropriations, activities at CPSC such as field investigations, product testing, and recalls could cease during a lapse, according to recent contingency plans, which potentially could disrupt cross-border trade and supply chains.

“What sometimes is not considered essential are additional reviews of cargo shipments that might be required and are conducted by government agencies other than CBP,” Cindy Allen, an international trade consultant and a former CBP executive director, told FreightWaves.

“So products subject to government oversight that may require additional review or testing might be impacted, which means potentially slowing freight flows.”

Other government agencies that affect freight markets, and the effect a shutdown could have on operations (based on their most recent contingency plans), include:

Federal Maritime Commission

Because most of the FMC’s employees are funded by annual appropriations, the commission, which regulates the U.S. international container trades, will be hit hard by a shutdown.

All work will cease “that furthers the agency’s mission to ensure a competitive and reliable international ocean transportation supply system that supports the U.S. economy and protects the public from unfair and deceptive practices,” according to the agency’s most recent shutdown plan.

Surface Transportation Board

Activities at the STB having to do with case processing, regulatory filings, and most litigation will likely be suspended in the case of funding lapse. That includes procedural schedules, oral arguments and voting conferences, data collection and analysis, and staff meetings with stakeholders will all be suspended.

Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, STB’s schedule for reviewing Union Pacific’s $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern could be affected.

U.S. Coast Guard

Approximately 95% of the U.S. Coast Guard’s 52,377 active duty and civilian workforce will be retained in the case of a shutdown, according to DHS, which means inspections of U.S.- and foreign-flag vessels entering U.S. ports, waterfront facility security, and container inspection enforcement will continue.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 18:05

Buffett's Berkshire Near $10 Billion Deal For Occidental's Chemical Unit

Buffett's Berkshire Near $10 Billion Deal For Occidental's Chemical Unit

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway - which we have been following and watching take, then increase its stake in Occidential Petroleum for years - has finally tipped its hand at what it's end game with the company could be.

While many had speculated Buffett would eventually take all of Occidental private, Berkshire is instead in advanced talks to buy Occidental's petrochemical business, OxyChem, for about $10 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.

A deal could be finalized within days and would mark Berkshire’s largest acquisition since 2022.

Occidental, best known for its oil-and-gas operations, is valued at roughly $46 billion and already counts Berkshire as its biggest shareholder. OxyChem, which makes chemicals used in water treatment, battery recycling, and paper production, generated nearly $5 billion in sales in the year through June.

WSJ writes that if completed, this would be Buffett’s second major chemicals bet. Back in 2011, Berkshire purchased Lubrizol for close to $10 billion. His last large deal was the $11.6 billion takeover of insurer Alleghany in 2022.

Buffett’s ties to Occidental date to 2019, when he invested $10 billion in preferred shares to help CEO Vicki Hollub outbid Chevron for Anadarko. While that transaction burdened Occidental with debt and drew fire from Carl Icahn, Buffett steadily accumulated shares and now owns about 28% of the company. Occidental has since been selling assets and repaid $7.5 billion of debt as of August.

Meanwhile, Berkshire is flush with a record $344 billion in cash and Treasurys. As Buffett put it earlier this year: “Berkshire will never prefer ownership of cash-equivalent assets over the ownership of good businesses, whether controlled or only partially owned.”

Energy assets, especially in oil and gas, still look cheap in today’s market and continue to believe relatively unloved as the market continues its focus on tech and AI. We wouldn’t be surprised to see more take-private or merger activity follow this deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 17:40

The Bizarre Postcard Opinion Striking Down The Trump Visa Policies

The Bizarre Postcard Opinion Striking Down The Trump Visa Policies

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Judge William Young has had a distinguished career since his appointment by President Ronald Reagan in 1985, including serving as Chief Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts.

At 85, his career includes notable cases such as the Boston Strangler and the Shoe Bomber. However, his 161-page opinion declaring the Trump Administration in violation of the First Amendment over visa denials is nothing short of bizarre. 

It starts as a type of letter to an anonymous person who sent the judge a postcard.

Here is how the caption appeared in

Here is a closer image:

The opinion then ends with this conclusion:

With all due respect to Judge Young (who warrants considerable respect after his remarkable career), the captioning and conclusion are improvisational, impulsive, and injudicious. The court injected a political dialogic element in an opinion with sweeping implications for our constitutional system.

I have previously disagreed with some of these measures and agree with some points in this opinion. For those currently in this country, I have long supported free speech protections. That said, I expect that the Administration has the advantage on visa applicants outside of the country. The courts are already working to sort this out and it is likely to result in a split resolution. However, the tenor and odd elements of this opinion take away from these points.

It is an example of yielding to impulse, a problem that I have previously addressed with district court judges after the Trump inauguration.

The trend has even reached the Supreme Court on occasion.

Take District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan, an Obama appointee who had previously presided over Trump’s election interference case. Chutkan was criticized for failing to recuse herself from that case after she made highly controversial statements about Trump from the bench. In a sentencing hearing of a Jan. 6 rioter in 2022, Chutkan said that the rioters “were there in fealty, in loyalty, to one man — not to the Constitution.” She added then, “[i]t’s a blind loyalty to one person who, by the way, remains free to this day.” That “one person” was still under investigation at the time and, when Trump was charged, Chutkan refused to let the case go.

Chutkan later decided to use the bench to amplify her own views of the pardons and Jan. 6. She proclaimed that the pardons could not change the “tragic truth” and “cannot whitewash the blood, feces and terror that the mob left in its wake. And it cannot repair the jagged breach in America’s sacred tradition of peacefully transitioning power.”

Chutkan’s colleague Judge Beryl Howell, also an Obama appointee, lashed out at Trump’s actions, writing, “[T]his Court cannot let stand the revisionist myth relayed in this presidential pronouncement.”

Other judges have engaged in extrajudicial commentary from the bench that undermines the integrity of the court system and their own authority.

The bizarre captioning and conclusion in this case is another such example. It only served to undermine the opinion itself and the legal points raised by the court. It may have been cathartic, but it was also tedious and prejudicial. It has a certain chest-pounding element that is neither necessary nor compelling for a court to insert into an opinion.

Judge Young would be wise to issue a corrected opinion without the novel captioning and conclusion . . . and simply send a postcard to this curious penpal.

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Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 17:15

Trump Inks Article-5 Style Defense Deal With Qatar After 'Apology' Over Israel's Doha Bombing

Trump Inks Article-5 Style Defense Deal With Qatar After 'Apology' Over Israel's Doha Bombing

The US and Qatar have signed an unprecedented agreement which is similar to Article 5 in NATO, in which an attack on Qatar is considered a threat to the security of the US.

The robust security guarantees are spelled out in the deal posted to the White House website on Wednesday: "The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States."

"In the event of such an attack, the United States shall take all lawful and appropriate measures including diplomatic, economic, and if necessary, military, to defend the interests of the United States and of Qatar," it adds.

Via Reuters

This is a clear vow to "guarantee the security and territorial integrity of the state of Qatar against external attack." Is this what the White House is calling America First policy? 

Of course, the United States already has a significant military base, the sprawling Al Udeid Air Base, located west of Doha, which is defended by Patriot missile batteries.

But now presumably this American air defense shield will extend over the whole of the tiny oil and gas monarchy's territory.

Already the past year has seen active US intercepts of missiles sent by Iran, and yet last month's Israeli attack on a Hamas office in Doha was allowed by US defenses.

But this new major security deal appears part of Trump's 'regret' to Qatar in the wake of that controversial attack, which killed five top Hamas negotiators and a Qatari security guard.

Trump on Monday while hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made him apologize to Qatar's leaders in a somewhat humiliating phone call and photo op, later published by the White House...

As for US-Qatar relations, they were deepened especially during the decade-plus long war of regime change against Assad. Qatar even hosted FSA and jihadi training camps, reportedly ran by the CIA and likely American special forces.

Ultimately, the US-Gulf-Israel axis is still strong, despite the Gaza war, which is also what this new defense pact demonstrates. Some analysts are saying it further prepares the US-Gulf axis for the next round of fighting with Iran. For example Mideast observer Kevork Almassian writes:

Make no mistake: this is about the future U.S./Israeli war with Iran. Consider the implications: if Iran retaliates against Qatar for hosting U.S. and Israeli operations, Washington can immediately declare that an attack on Qatar is an attack on U.S. interests. From there, it’s a short step to claim: Attack on Qatar = attack on the U.S. = attack on a NATO member = Article 5 triggered.

This is indeed recipe for more US quagmires and foreign interventionism in the Middle East, and Congress remains silent, as has become typcial.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 16:50

ICE Arrests More Than 400 Illegal Immigrants In Week-Long Operation In Central Florida

ICE Arrests More Than 400 Illegal Immigrants In Week-Long Operation In Central Florida

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 400 illegal immigrants were arrested during a week-long immigration enforcement operation in central Florida last week, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said on Sept. 30.

The badge of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer in Hawthorne, Calif., on March 1, 2020. Lucy Nicholson/Reuters

ICE said that the operation, carried out between Sept. 22 and Sept. 26, targeted illegal immigrants with “outstanding criminal warrants” and those who are subject to deportation.

Many of these individuals illegally remained in Florida and have gone on to wreak havoc in our local neighborhoods,” ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Miami Field Office Director Garrett Ripa said in a statement.

ICE said that all the detainees will be subject to removal proceedings in accordance with federal immigration law.

The operation was led by ICE Miami in coordination with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and multiple local law enforcement agencies, including the Florida Highway Patrol and the Florida National Guard, according to the agency.

Florida is leading nationwide in 287(g) partnerships, with 327 agreements currently in place, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The agreements allow local law enforcement agencies to carry out certain immigration duties, including identifying and processing removable illegal immigrants who face criminal charges.

DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin praised the operation in central Florida, noting that the detainees included individuals convicted of criminal offenses such as “lewd and lascivious behavior, battery, domestic violence, prostitution, vehicle theft, hit and run, and driving under the influence.”

This was another successful operation to arrest the worst of the worst with our Florida state and local partners and can serve as a blueprint nationwide,” McLaughlin said, calling on other states to follow suit.

The Trump administration has ramped up efforts to arrest and deport illegal immigrants across the country.

Federal law enforcement officers are confronted by demonstrators outside an Immigration and Customs Enforcement processing center in Broadview, Ill., on Sept. 19, 2025. Ocavio Jones/AFP via Getty Images

The DHS said on Sept. 23 that federal immigration authorities have removed more than 2 million illegal immigrants since President Donald Trump took office.

That figure includes an estimated 1.6 million illegal immigrants who voluntarily self-deported, and more than 400,000 who were removed, according to the department.

After taking office on Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order aimed at securing the United States’ borders, directing his administration to build barriers at the border, deter and prevent the entry of illegal immigrants, remove “promptly all aliens who enter or remain in violation of federal law,” and pursue criminal charges “against illegal aliens who violate the immigration laws.”

The order said the United States has seen a “large-scale invasion at an unprecedented level” over the past four years, with millions of illegal immigrants entering the country, including potential terrorists, foreign spies, members of cartels, and other hostile actors with malicious intent.

Stuart Liess contributed to this report.

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For Him // For Her // Save the planet

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 16:25

Goldman Flags Coffee Demand Risks As Youth Unemployment Rises 

Goldman Flags Coffee Demand Risks As Youth Unemployment Rises 

Goldman analysts find that a softening labor market, slowing traffic at major QSR chains, and intensifying competition are raising investor concerns about ready-to-drink (RTD) and specialty coffee demand. Since Gen Z is a key driver of RTD coffee at QSRs, the analysts highlight several "swing factors" to watch that could influence demand from this younger cohort.

"We are observing rising investor concerns about the coffee category's macro and competitive backdrop," a team of analysts led by Christine Cho wrote in a note on Tuesday. 

Cho listed some of those key pressure points: 

  1. Softening labor-market data, which is notable given that younger consumers have been a key growth engine for coffee and beverages in recent years;

  2. Signs of 3QTD traffic deceleration across the broader coffee market; and

  3. QSR brands' stepped up focus on beverage opportunities (i.e., MCD's new beverage test in hundreds of stores in the US and Taco Bell's plans to open 30 Live Mas Cafes by the end of the year).

Here's more: 

We have observed a modest uptick in SBUX's foot traffic trends in the top 3 coffee markets post the fall menu launch on Aug 26 vs. some deceleration in BROS' trends as per our latest Placer data analysis, and while it's early, McDonald's has gained 80 bps share of foot traffic in Colorado from 9/1-9/25/25 since the launch of its beverage tests on Sep 2 (Exhibit 4). We believe there are a number of key swing factors to watch for over the next few months including Gen Z spending intentions, Starbucks' launch of protein beverage / cold foam platform on Sep 29 and whether that influences net purchase intentions. That said, we maintain our Neutral ratings on SBUX and BROS as we await more clarity in these trends.

How will increased coffee/beverage competition impact existing market players?

On July 24, McDonald's announced a CosMc's-inspired beverage test across 500+ restaurants in Colorado, Wisconsin, and surrounding areas as consumers, particularly the Gen Z cohort, prefer cold beverages (link). This reflects a broader shift toward beverages we've seen across the restaurant industry as brands aim to capitalize on shifting coffee preferences (~40% of LSR offerings are now cold), with Taco Bell (Live Mas Cafe) and Chick-fil-A (Daybright) also testing beverage concepts and Wendy's launching cold brew coffee in August. Additionally, Jack in the Box announced the return of bigger cup sizes (25% more ounces) starting October 1 amid the stepped up value narrative across the industry. We think this could translate to intensifying competition in the coffee market especially for Dutch Bros, given that the brand has differentiated itself through its unique iced beverages and preference among younger consumers.

McDonald's beverages per ounce are priced at a discount of high teens/low 40% on average vs. Dutch Bros/Starbucks, respectively, based on our analysis of menu pricing for an array of offerings across 11 cities in Colorado as a way to assess which brands offer strong value in an increasingly competitive environment (Exhibit 3). Notably, Starbucks did not have any comparable offerings for two of the six categories analyzed, as the company aims to reduce operational complexity through a simplified menu, and offered the most expensive option across the remaining four categories.

For cash-strapped consumers, McDonald's offers the best RTD prices (at least in Colorado).

Coffee demand remains dismal. 

Given that Gen Z significantly drives coffee demand, analysts point to rising youth unemployment as a potential factor behind the slump in sales.

And soaring coffee bean prices don't help with price affordability

The takeaway is that the coffee market is facing mounting macroeconomic headwinds and intensifying competition, just as unemployment among Gen Zers ticks higher. A soft labor market, slowing traffic, and aggressive QSR beverage rollouts (McDonald's, Taco Bell, Chick-fil-A, Wendy's) are eroding demand momentum. Starbucks still commands premium pricing but risks losing share to cheaper, value-oriented rivals like McDonald's

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can access the full note, with all the charts and deeper analysis, in the usual spot.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 15:40

Amazon Launches Cheap Grocery Brand As Value War With Walmart Heats Up 

Amazon Launches Cheap Grocery Brand As Value War With Walmart Heats Up 

Value wars between Amazon and Walmart to attract cash-strapped consumers are heating up late in the year. Amazon announced on Wednesday morning the launch of a new private-label line called "Amazon Grocery," which spans more than 1,000 products and is largely priced under $5. The timing couldn't be better, as our attention has shifted to a storm brewing in the low-income consumer world.

Amazon Grocery will be a direct competitor to Walmart, Aldi, and other value grocery chains, offering affordable private-label goods amid ongoing value wars (read report). The new line will feature dairy, fresh produce, meat, snacks, and pantry staples priced under $5, an easy hook for low-income consumers. Another selling point: more than 1,000 items can be delivered straight to consumers' doors, saving them the time and hassle of driving to the supermarket and pushing a cart down the aisles. 

"The extensive selection includes everything from milk and olive oil to fresh produce, meat and seafood, with most products priced under $5, offering exceptional value to customers," Amazon wrote in a press release. 

"With Amazon Grocery, we're simplifying how customers discover and shop our extensive private label food selection while maintaining the quality and value our customers expect and deserve," Jason Buechel, Vice President of Amazon Worldwide Grocery Stores and Chief Executive Officer at Whole Foods Market, wrote in a press release

Buechel noted, "During a time when consumers are particularly price-conscious, Amazon Grocery delivers more than 1,000 quality grocery items across all categories that don't compromise on quality or taste – from fresh food items to crave-worthy snacks and pantry essentials – all at low, competitive prices that help customers stretch their grocery budgets further."

Amazon has long operated a large online grocery business, selling household basics, paper products, and cleaning supplies. In recent years, it has doubled down on physical retail through Whole Foods Market, Amazon Fresh supermarkets, and convenience stores. 

The timing of Amazon Grocery comes at a critical moment, following the sudden collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and CarMax's earnings miss, which has shifted our focus onto the financial health of low-income consumers as cracks begin to appear.

This week, Goldman's consumer sector specialist, Scott Feiler, and financials sector specialist, Christian DeGrasse, both noted that low-income trades are under pressure, pointing to Tricolor and CarMax as potential drivers that have set off alarm bells among investors.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 15:20

Healthier School Lunch Movement Gains Momentum Nationwide

Healthier School Lunch Movement Gains Momentum Nationwide

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Out with chicken nuggets and foot-long hot dogs, in with locally grown vegetables and lentil tacos.

Food from local farmers on a school lunch tray at Coppell Independent School District in Coppell, Texas. The district participates in the state's Farm Fresh program, which helps connect schools with local farmers. Courtesy of Coppell ISD

In the months and years ahead, school cafeteria trays could look much different as some state and federal lawmakers push to restrict ultra-processed foods in K–12 public schools, under the premise of assisting students to be happier, healthier, and higher-achieving.

Arizona, California, Louisiana, Utah, and Virginia passed laws removing unhealthy products, ingredients, or food dyes from school cafeterias, with healthier choices being phased in within the next two academic years. Similar legislation is pending in Hawaii, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and South Carolina, according to the websites of their respective state legislatures.

Foods that are considered “ultra-processed” have an abundance of additives and preservatives and are linked to chronic health issues such as obesity and diabetes, according to the Department of Health and Human Services’ Make Our Children Healthy Again guidance released on Sept. 9.

The American diet has shifted dramatically toward highly processed foods, leading to nutrient depletion, increased caloric intake, and exposure to potentially harmful or unhealthy additives,” the guidance reads.

Ultra-Processed Foods and Scratch Kitchens 

The Chef Ann Foundation defines ultra-processed foods as those that are chemically manipulated with ingredients such as corn, soy, and wheat extracts to extend shelf life, improve flavor, and enhance appearance. It also includes additives such as sugar, sodium, dyes, preservatives, and other chemicals to change the texture or increase the volume of feeds. Artificial ingredients are used to replace the vitamins and minerals lost as the result of processing and packaging.

Ultra-processed foods are less filling yet contain more calories than minimally processed foods, leading consumers to eat faster and consume more.

Chef Ann Foundation CEO Mara Fleishman said that, beyond cafeteria employee training and kitchen upgrades from heat-and-serve equipment to a scratch cooking setup, the other major necessary investment is increased funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), which currently provides $4.50 per school lunch.

Fleishman told The Epoch Times via email that the bipartisan federal Scratch Cooked Meals for Students Act—a USDA pilot program that provides school cafeterias with refrigerators, convection ovens, steamers, and prep spaces—will be reintroduced in the next legislative session.

Most schools built around the middle of the 20th century were equipped with large kitchens designed for scratch cooking, but quality and nutrition took a back seat to efficiency and cost savings in the decades that followed.

By the 1980s, new schools were being built with smaller heat-and-serve operations, and older schools were shrinking their cafeterias to free up space for other functions. Districts that returned to scratch cooking are more likely to have a large central kitchen and transport the meals to their schools, according to Danielle Bock, director of nutritional services for the Greeley-Evans-Weld County School District in Colorado.

During a Sept. 9 House Health Care and Financial Services Subcommittee hearing on childhood nutrition and medication, legislators noted that about one-third of U.S. adolescent children are pre-diabetic and/or obese. Eve Stoody, director of the USDA’s Nutrition Guidance and Analysis Division, said about 61.9 percent of the calories consumed by U.S. youth are considered ultra-processed.

Stoody is working with Health and Human Services to develop a uniform definition of ultra-processed foods for future federal guidance on school menus. Although sodas, salty snacks, and candy are obvious examples, it’s still unclear whether yogurts, bagged salads, and canned vegetables are acceptable menu items.

“There have been discussions that some of these definitions are really broad,” she said.

Parents, Children Weigh In

The MAHA report provides several examples of other nations that serve whole foods for school lunches, including Brazil and countries across Northern Europe. Still, it doesn’t take into account that, for millions of students worldwide, having meals at school is a foreign concept.

Sarah Berner, an 11th-grade exchange student from Germany currently attending Cazenovia High School in upstate New York, said her schools back home always offered doughnuts in the morning and bread as a snack throughout the day. She and her classmates always went home for their afternoon meal before returning to class. Her first and only hot school lunch, eaten shortly after arriving in the United States, was a cheeseburger.

It was good, I think. But I wouldn’t eat it again,” she told The Epoch Times.

Rowan Wallace, a sophomore in the district whose family is hosting Berner, said the school cafeteria has improved during her 11 years as a student. Hot dogs and pizza are no longer commonplace. The latest menu items—cheese-and-cracker bento boxes with yogurt parfaits—were very good, she said. Still, she said, she misses the deli sandwiches that are no longer offered and would like to see more whole-grain items and chia pudding.

Her mother, Julie Wallace, said the cafeteria does a good job with healthy grab-and-go items for busy high school students who don’t get a lunch period when they have band or chorus practice. She said she thinks that homemade granola bars would be the perfect afternoon energy-booster for teens who have sports practices or school club gatherings after school.

In Utah, state Rep. Kristen Chevrier said she based her bill calling for removal of additives and dyes from school foods on what she witnessed in her state’s Granite School District’s prep kitchen: large vats of homemade salsa, a conveyor belt of locally grown potatoes with minimal seasoning, and a panel of student taste-testers judging the flavor of new menu items—chicken sandwiches and burrito bowls.

Moms approached me about getting rid of the toxins in school food,” Chevrier told The Epoch Times. “My own children have food sensitivities, so I understand what they mean.

“The closer we can get to natural and fewer ingredients, the better.”

Little Wiggle Room

School districts that receive USDA reimbursement funding for school lunches must follow guidelines that dictate serving sizes, types of food (fruits, vegetables, meats, and grains), calorie counts, and limits on saturated fat, sugar, and sodium. States can add restrictions. Current guidelines don’t address ultra-processed foods, according to the USDA website.

Schools purchase some foods directly from the USDA, and the federal agency regulates processed food manufacturers. For example, Post and General Mills make cereals with reduced sugar content specifically for schools. Districts are required to self-audit their food purchases and their meal preparation, and both functions are subject to state and federal level audits, according to Duncan Sproule, who worked as a school food services manager in urban and suburban districts in Syracuse, New York.

Sproule recalled an incident involving whole-grain pasta from the USDA. It didn’t hold its shape well, was difficult to serve, and was unpopular among the students. The remaining cases of the product were donated to local food pantries; the school spent local tax dollars to substitute regular pasta. Most districts rely on state and federal funding for meals and must carefully set aside money on a long-term basis to replace equipment.

“The margins are very tight,” Sproule told The Epoch Times.

Dave Bartholomew, who managed public school food service operations in the Central New York area for 35 years, said providing fresher foods in cold-weather states with short growing seasons is a tall task.

The USDA expects much from schools, he said, recalling the requirements to continue food service during the COVID-19 pandemic and getting meals to students in remote areas during winter storms.

“Improving the nutrition is a good thing, but it will need to be done very slowly and very meticulously,” Bartholomew told The Epoch Times.

“To understand the regulations we’re already dealing with, the politicians need to spend time in a cafeteria. Don’t just visit it. Go work in it for a day.”

School Food Service Already Changing

In upstate New York, school districts complied with stricter school lunch requirements set by President Barack Obama, Sproule recalled, noting that the chicken sandwich menu item decreased by less than 1 ounce and whole-grain rolls replaced white breads.

Dana Canino, child nutrition director at the Granite School District, said even the condiments in her central kitchen, which serves 80 schools, are homemade. She said she buys as much food as possible from local farmers, including fruits, whole wheat flour, and beef. Food prices have fluctuated since the COVID-19 pandemic, she said, so it’s too soon to gauge if whole food preparation is cheaper.

Bock said that in her Colorado district, school food service operations are still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains, decreased the labor force, and required the return of certain processed foods for sanitary reasons and heat-and-serve operations to accommodate children in their classrooms instead of cafeterias.

We’re able to get back to scratch because we have culinary control over our ingredients,” she said.

Utah’s law takes effect for the next school year. State Sen. Heidi Balderree, who co-sponsored Chevrier’s bill, said many districts across her state won’t have to make drastic changes to comply with the new regulations beyond removing “chips and Jello.”

In addition to expected improvements in academic performance, Balderree said, Utah agriculture could enjoy growth if lawmakers undo regulations and smooth out supply chain issues to get farm-fresh products to school kitchens promptly.

“The more autonomous we can be, the better we'll be,” she told The Epoch Times. “In the long run, it’s a wise thing to do.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 14:40

What You Need To Know About AI Scams

What You Need To Know About AI Scams

Authored by Javier Simon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized the way we complete tasks, and it’s becoming a part of our everyday lives. But like many technological innovations, AI can be a double-edged sword.

It can make life easier. And it can open the door to a new generation of scammers and fraudsters who can steal everything from your money to your identity. So it’s important to know what you’re up against in the modern world.

Deep-Fake Voice Cloning

Believe it or not, you may get a call from a robot claiming to be a loved one stating they’re in a desperate situation and need money. But before you reach for your debit card, understand this may be a scam.

It could be tied to what’s called voice cloning. Scammers gather a clip of someone speaking from anywhere including social media. They then use voice synthesis technology to generate new speech that sounds identical to the voice they analyzed.

These tricks are also known as grandparent scams, because thieves often dupe older individuals into thinking they are their grandchildren in urgent need of money.

And that’s key. Voice-cloning scammers often create an extreme sense of urgency. If you feel the call is too intense, it’s okay to hang up. Call the person directly and ask about the situation, if any.

Some experts also recommend that you use secret phrases among your loved ones in order to confirm their identity. But be sure to make it as obscure as possible. Don’t make it something users can find on their social media pages. And don’t share it through email or anywhere else, as these can be compromised as well. It should only be shared through word of mouth among your loved ones.

But what happens when it’s not a loved one, but someone you admire? Voice-cloning scammers have been known to duplicate the voices of celebrities and public officials to generate robo calls that trick people into donating to a cause or investment scheme.

You should immediately hang up on these types of calls. And if you’re really curious, you may want to check on the official websites or verified social media profiles of these individuals to see if they are involved with any organization.

Deep-Fake Video Calls

This trick is similar to a voice-cloning call. But it adds another convincing layer: video. Scammers use AI-generated videos of fake people or real people like your loved ones to make video calls. In these situations, they also may create a sense of urgency and ask for money. They may direct you to a malicious website where you’re tricked into providing sensitive financial information that the scammer can steal.

The rule of thumb is that if it seems incredibly urgent and requires money, a red flag should go up. Hang up the call and contact the person in question directly if possible. And beware of these videos elsewhere. They can appear in online advertisements and across social media—often involving celebrities and news anchors.

Fake Stores and Marketplaces

Scammers may create AI-generated malicious websites. In some cases, these websites serve as fake stores or marketplaces. You may find the links to these malicious sites on social media or via text or email.

In some cases, they’ll list a popular product that you’ve been searching for at an exceptionally discounted price. But if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. The scammer would take your financial information to “process the order,” and you’ll never receive the product. The bad actor would instead keep your sensitive financial information and either sell it on the dark web or use it to make fraudulent purchases.

But these go beyond popular products. They could also involve listings for apartments and houses.

If you believe you’ve been a victim of this type of scam, it’s important that you contact your financial institution immediately to see how you may proceed. In some cases, you may be able to get your money back.

But if you feel you’ve been a victim of any type of scam, it’s also important to report it to the Federal Trade Commission at ReportFraud.ftc.gov.

AI Phishing

Phishing has long been a favorite for scammers. They often involve emails disguised to seem like they are coming from legitimate sources like your employer, a loved one, or a government agency. But a scammer uses these emails to trick you into sending money or divulging sensitive information like your financial information, passwords, and Social Security number. In some cases, they also send links that actually lead to a fraudulent website or malware designed to destroy your device and steal sensitive information.

Back in the day, you could spot a phishing email by looking for things like typos, grammatical errors, non-legitimate email addresses, and more. But AI has muscled up these emails, and they now seem more convincing than ever. So if you see an email claiming to be from a legitimate source and asking for things like money or your sensitive information, close the email. Don’t click on any links. Delete it.

Reach out to the organization in question directly via an official phone number or through their official website.

And keep in mind that financial institutions and businesses would never ask for your password via email, call, or text.

The Bottom Line

AI has made completing tasks easier for many. But that also applies to scammers and fraudsters. Criminals are now armed with the most sophisticated technology, and they’re using it to prey on unsuspecting victims. You may fall for tricks like deep-fake phone or video calls, as well as AI-assisted phishing scams. As a result, you could lose everything from your bank account to your retirement savings—even your own identity.

This is why you must remain vigilant. Beware of any type of communication that involves giving up money or sensitive information like your passwords, financial information, and Social Security number. Take a deep breath and carefully analyze what’s in front of you. It may also help to contact a trusted friend. Sometimes, an extra set of eyes can help identify a scam in progress.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 14:00

GEO Group Soars As ICE Extends Contract For Illegal Alien Tracking Services

GEO Group Soars As ICE Extends Contract For Illegal Alien Tracking Services

The GEO Group's subsidiary, BI Incorporated, secured a two-year contract extension with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to continue operating the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), which provides electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services for illegal aliens. The contract supplies the federal government with critical logistical support in its efforts to deport criminal illegal aliens who invaded the country under nation-killing open border policies enforced by the globalist-aligned Biden-Harris regime. 

BI's two-year contract extension to continue ISAP work in support of the Trump administration's illegal alien deportation program was effective today, with an additional one-year option period. BI does not directly deport illegals, and that is carried out by ICE's Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO).

Here are the highlights: 

  • Contract Terms: Two-year award, beginning October 1, with an initial one-year term and a one-year option to extend.

  • Scope of Services: Electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision of individuals under ISAP. BI has been providing these services for over two decades. 

  • Track Record: BI operates through a nationwide network of 100 offices and nearly 1,000 employees, maintaining high compliance rates with its technology and case management solutions. 

Executive Chairman of GEO, George C. Zoley, stated, "We appreciate the confidence that ICE has placed in our company. We believe this important contract award is a testament to the high-quality electronic monitoring and case management services BI has consistently delivered under the ISAP contract through a nationwide network of approximately 100 offices and close to 1,000 employees."

Early in September, we pointed out...

Fast forward.

Shares of GEO jumped nearly 9% in late-morning cash trading in New York, marking their biggest gain in 6.5 months. Despite the rally, the stock remains down 20% year-to-date, though still trading well above levels when prices spiked after a Trump presidential win in early November. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 13:40

From Lawfare To Barfare: Another Way To Target Trump Allies

From Lawfare To Barfare: Another Way To Target Trump Allies

Authored by Benjamin Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

When Jeffrey Clark was tapped to lead the second Trump administration’s chief regulatory review office, it marked an astonishing redemption. 

For years, congressional investigators and prosecutors had pursued the former Department of Justice official primarily over an unsent letter he drafted, in support of President Trump’s 2020 election challenge, calling for Georgia to consider launching a last-minute legislative session to review its results.

Trump’s return to power has not ended Clark’s troubles: Washington, D.C.’s legal disciplinary authority has recommended he be disbarred over his conduct from five years ago. Lawyers for Clark claim that the effort seeks to punish “thought crime” regarding their client’s belief in potential irregularities in an election that authorities declared devoid of widespread fraud.

Even as President Trump’s critics now claim he is engaging in retribution against a wide range of past assailants, including former FBI Director James Comey, his supporters say Clark’s case reveals there is an ongoing, politically motivated push to punish MAGA advocates. In their telling, the president’s adversaries who weaponized the justice system through “lawfare” have opened another front in their war through “barfare.” 

The Rise of Barfare

Since 2020, Democratic officials and progressive groups established specifically to target conservatives have lodged bar complaints against dozens of Trump-allied attorneys such as Clark. While supporters of these efforts say they are trying to hold officeholders and advocates accountable for actions that betrayed the canons of ethical legal practice, conservative opponents say the push to punish their political foes via bar complaints, often brought in politically partisan jurisdictions, threatens not only the ability of presidents to receive counsel but the American legal system itself.

“The most politicized situations are the ones where the bar should be the most reticent,” to consider punishing attorneys over their work, James Burnham, former DOGE general counsel, said during a recent panel discussion on alleged bar weaponization hosted by the right-leaning Federalist Society. “That’s when lawyers are supposed to be the most creative and the most aggressive. But it’s not the kind of situation where we want lawyers to be afraid to even engage in advocacy in the first place.”

The Clark complaint concerned his activities in the final weeks of the first Trump administration, while he served in part as acting assistant attorney general for the Justice Department’s Civil Division. Clark, an environmental and regulatory lawyer by background, believed that there was potentially election-altering fraud or irregularities in Georgia and other states, requiring resolution before the fast-approaching January 6, 2021, election certification date.

In response, he wrote a draft letter dated Dec. 28 and addressed to Georgia leaders recommending that the state legislature convene a special session to further probe potential irregularities and take remedial steps as necessary if they impacted the election outcome. 

Clark circulated the letter to acting Attorney General Jeffrey Rosen and Deputy Attorney General Richard Donoghue, who were responsible for probing 2020 election issues. Rosen and Donoghue disagreed with its thrust – especially the suggestion that there was potentially election-altering fraud – and declined to sign and deliver it.

Trump Gets Wind

As Trump’s election challenge proceeded, he got wind of Clark’s views. Apparently finding an ally, the president floated the idea of making Clark acting attorney general. Clark allegedly offered to decline any such appointment if Rosen would sign off on the letter, the then-Democrat-led Senate Judiciary Committee would later report – an allegation Clark would flatly deny. In opposition to a possible appointment, Clark’s superiors convened a Jan. 3, 2021, meeting with President Trump and other officials, at which several said they and other colleagues would resign en masse should the president elevate him. 

Ultimately, the president backed off, and Clark’s letter was consigned to the ashbin of history – until one or several ex-Trump administration officials leaked word of its existence and contents to the New York Times. The Times wrote about Clark’s efforts in a Jan. 22 article titled “Trump and Justice Dept. Lawyer Said to Have Plotted to Oust Acting Attorney General.”

A flurry of probes pertaining to the president’s election challenge would follow. Clark – a Harvard- and Georgetown-educated litigator who had spent the bulk of his career as a partner at white-shoe law firm Kirland & Ellis – would spend the next several years facing the scrutiny of congressional committees, including the Democrat-dominated January 6 Committee, and prosecution in cases brought by Fani Willis in Fulton County, Georgia, and Special Counsel Jack Smith in Washington, D.C. In June 2022, he was forced to wait outside his home in his undergarments while federal investigators searched his suburban Virginia residence, seizing electronic devices in connection with their January 6 probe. 

In July 2022, in response to a complaint lodged by the then-Democrat-led Senate, the D.C. Board on Professional Responsibility charged Clark with violating the D.C. Rules of Professional Conduct. It accused him of engaging “in conduct involving dishonesty” by drafting the letter the board alleged contained false statements, and for “attempt[ing] to engage in conduct that would seriously interfere with the administration of justice.” 

The allegations against Clark rested in part on the argument that because his superiors disagreed with his views on potential election fraud in Georgia, Clark’s assertions in the letter were fraudulent.

Unprecedented Case

In his defense, Clark invoked a slew of privileges, and raised myriad procedural and substantive arguments – including that the local D.C. disciplinary board lacked jurisdiction over Clark’s conduct as a federal lawyer providing counsel to the president; that Clark enjoyed immunity from liability while rendering advice to the president; and that the purported false statements were merely proposed Justice Department positions for consideration by superiors – positions largely consistent, as his lawyers noted, with those raised by several U.S. Supreme Court justices and nearly 20 state attorneys general.

Clark’s lawyers argued during his trial that “[N]o one has ever been charged by the D.C. Bar with attempted dishonesty in a draft letter that recommended a change in policy or position where that document was not approved and never even left the office.” 

His lawyers made the point that sanctioning him for such conduct would lead to a limitless array of disciplinary actions against attorneys over private or internal deliberations on behalf of clients should they hold contrarian views.

Government “lawyers will be afraid to give their candid opinions for fear of losing their careers. Likewise, lawyers will not join government for the same reason,” Harry MacDougald, one of Clark’s lawyers, told RealClearInvestigations.

On July 31, 2025, despite acknowledging “that there are no factually comparable prior disciplinary cases,” a majority of the board recommended that Clark be disbarred. While rejecting Clark’s arguments, including that he was protected as a government lawyer giving advice, the nine-member board said that the charges against him “focus on the truthfulness of the factual assertions” in the letter that he authored. 

Although Clark’s superiors had testified that Clark had “sincere personal concerns” regarding the integrity of the election, the board said, “they also agreed that the Justice Department had not identified potentially outcome-determinative issues in Georgia or other states.”

Therefore, his continued efforts to press officials to send the letter “constituted an attempt to make intentionally false statements about the results of the Justice Department’s investigation,” the board said.

The tribunal added that Clark “should be disbarred as a consequence and to send a message to the rest of the Bar and to the public that this behavior will not be tolerated.”

The disbarment decision is pending before the D.C. Court of Appeals, which has final say over such decisions in the nation’s capital.

Claims of Unequal Justice

In an August 2025 filing with the appeals court obtained by RCI detailing Clark’s exceptions to the board’s order, his counsel contrasted the disciplinary tribunal’s treatment of the Justice Department lawyer with that of FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith. He received just a one-year suspension for doctoring a document submitted to the FISA Court supporting the government’s FISA warrant application that enabled them to surveil Trump adviser Carter Page.

The disciplinary process in the D.C. bar is radically disparate according to the political affiliation and views of the respondent attorney,” Clark’s lawyers charged.

A preliminary review of public records indicates that a majority of the board that made the Clark recommendation was comprised of registered Democrats, individuals who had contributed to Democrat candidates, or public advocates of progressive causes. Only one board member was publicly identifiable as a Republican.

The board recommendation followed a trial before a separate three-member panel, at least two of whom were registered Democrats and had contributed financially to Democratic Party candidates, public records show. 

The Office of Disciplinary Counsel, which handed down the original charges against Clark and effectively prosecutes such cases, is also headed by an attorney, Hamilton P. Fox III, who, according to public records, is a Democrat.

“D.C. voted Democrat more than 90% against Trump all three times he was on the ballot – the most lopsided margin in the country to have its own Bar,” MacDougald noted on X in a response to the disciplinary authority’s decision.

Many prominent Republicans also took issue with the actions of Trump and his confidantes in challenging the 2020 election. This includes the sole publicly identifiable Republican board member, Margaret M. Cassidy, a member of the Republican National Lawyers Association who concurred in the recommendation that Clark be disbarred.

After the panel handed down its recommendation to disbar Clark, MacDougald told RCI, “the reason Jeff has been singled out is lawfare – straight up political persecution.”

With the Clark disbarment decision now in the hands of federal judges, the lawyer may have just gotten a big boost. On Sept. 25, three former attorneys general submitted an amicus brief in support of his case. William P. Barr, Jeff Sessions, and Michael Mukasey – all Republican-appointed prosecutors, but not all supportive of Clark’s conduct – echoed his arguments in writing:

The District of Columbia Board on Professional Responsibility…has no business – indeed, no authority whatever – in policing internal deliberative discussions and documents exchanged within the federal Executive Branch for containing purportedly ‘dishonest’ (yet somehow also ‘sincere’) ideas or assertions,” they said.

They added that “immunity for top advisors is necessary to ensure that the President may receive candid and necessary advice prior to acting.”

“Although we are not persuaded by Mr. Clark’s proposed legal strategy, and former Attorney General Barr has publicly criticized it in no uncertain terms, disbarring or otherwise disciplining Mr. Clark for those actions would set a dangerous precedent that would significantly interfere with Executive Branch functions,” while sending a “biting chill throughout the federal government,” they concluded.

Not Alone in the Dock

On the same July day that the D.C. tribunal formally made its recommendation to disbar Clark, three current Justice Department officials were hit with ethics complaints lodged with the bar disciplinary authorities where they are licensed to practice. 

The parallel complaints – targeting Deputy Assistant Attorney General Eric Hamilton, Special Counsel Brad Rosenberg, and Trial Attorney Liam Holland – allege they made “intentionally and materially misleading statements” in litigation over the Trump administration’s attempt to curtail the work of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The complaints note that presiding Judge Amy Berman Jackson of the D.C. District Court upbraided the lawyers over certain representations made to the court.

Several ex-DOJ staff members have defended their colleagues, writing that “our former colleagues took immediate steps to correct the record in response to plaintiffs’ evidence,” while noting that “leaving any such inquiry in the first instance to the court and the parties, who have intimate knowledge of the facts and circumstances that state bar authorities lack, would be a far better approach for determining whether sanctionable misconduct occurred.”

The Justice Department did not respond to RCI’s inquiries regarding the complaints against its employees.

The three complaints were filed by the Legal Accountability Center. The advocacy group’s executive director, Michael J. Teter, has said its efforts are aimed at “going on offense in defense of democracy” at a time when “the rule of law is under direct assault.” The organization maintains it is merely seeking to hold to account “attorneys who abuse their power and violate professional conduct rules.” Its financials are unavailable. A broken web link appears to tie the nonprofit to progressive tech billionaire Pierre Omidyar’s Democracy Fund.

Among the Legal Accountability Center’s initiatives is The 65 Project. The so-called “dark money” outfit was launched in the wake of the 2020 election to “shame” lawyers who represented President Trump in some 65 lawsuits challenging the election and “make them toxic in their communities and their firms,” according to Democrat operative David Brock, founder of the partisan watchdog group Media Matters, who is one of the group’s advisers.

Billed as a bipartisan effort, The 65 Project is led by staffers with ties to Democratic Party campaigns and causes. Teter, who also serves as its managing director, has worked for candidates including John Kerry and counseled the liberal American Civil Liberties Union. Its senior advisor, Melissa Moss, is a former Clinton appointee and finance director of the Democratic National Committee. 

The 65 Project was originally run through another nonprofit, Moss’ Law Works, which achieved notoriety for hosting a stage adaptation of the Mueller Report performed by Hollywood stars. According to archived websites, The 65 Project was sponsored by the Franklin Education Forum, a supporter of progressive causes previously chaired by Brock, and a grant recipient of Omidyar’s Democracy Fund. 

Neither Teter nor the organizations with which he is affiliated responded to RCI’s inquiries in connection with this story.

Justice or Harassment?

More senior officials, as well, have gotten hit with bar complaints in recent months. In September, the center filed a bar complaint against Deputy U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, claiming, among other things, a conflict of interest in his interviewing of Ghislaine Maxwell. It also filed a complaint against Ed Martin, the former U.S. attorney for D.C., asserting he had abused his position and conduct rules by engaging in politically motivated investigations, among other matters. Martin, now a DOJ special attorney, also faces scrutiny from the D.C. disciplinary body. During his tenure as U.S. attorney, he had requested information of that office, citing in part the Clark case, indicating his concern that it might be biased against conservatives. 

Elected Republican officials around the country, including Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen, and Lawrence VanDyke, the former solicitor general in Montana and Nevada, and a current judge on the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, have also been targeted.

Judging by their disposition, most of these accusations were of dubious legal merit. A recent analysis of nearly 80 complaints filed by third-party organizations like The 65 Project against attorneys who represented Trump or related causes – many of them Republican state attorneys general – found that in only three instances did attorneys face public discipline.

The conservative group America First Legal filed a bar complaint against Teter last fall for his The 65 Project work, claiming he was abusing the bar disciplinary process in targeting attorneys associated with Trump. It is unclear whether the Utah Bar, which received the complaint, has taken any action.

De-Weaponizing the Bar Discipline Process

Those who believe the bar is being weaponized against those who hold disfavored viewpoints – namely on the right – say corrective action is required. They assert that, beyond pursuing arguments regarding the immunity that federal lawyers ought to have from state and local authorities, there is a First Amendment right to viewpoint diversity that quasi-governmental entities, such as state bar associations, are currently violating. 

Some, such as Michael Francisco, an appellate litigator who formerly clerked for Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch, believe that “attorneys are not capable of regulating themselves.” 

America First Legal’s Gene Hamilton echoed these remarks, adding during the Federalist Society panel: “I really do think that each of the state bar associations need to take a really hard look at the rules and to modify them to prevent abuses of the disciplinary process.

Clark’s lawyer, MacDougald, told RCI that ultimately, lawyers advocating for Republican and Democratic causes will be losers if the weaponization of discipline doesn’t end. 

“Lawyers have a job to do and should be allowed to do it,” he said. “State legislatures and State Bar associations must reform themselves and commit to political neutrality or they will destroy themselves and the profession.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 13:20

U.S. Antimony Books First $10M DOD Order Under "Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity" Contract

U.S. Antimony Books First $10M DOD Order Under "Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity" Contract

United States Antimony announced Tuesday that it has received a $10 million delivery order under its newly signed indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity sole-source contract with the US Defense Logistics Agency.

The order covers 315,000 lbs. of antimony metal ingots, which will be used to replenish the US National Defense Stockpile.

Shares were up more than 10% in response to the order, while at the same time Bloomberg reported UAMY's CEO had purchased $613k in common stock at a price of $6.13/share, according to his Form 4

Looking ahead, the company said it expects 2026 gross revenues of $100 million, compared with the $100.6 million forecast by two analysts polled by FactSet. UAMY also reaffirmed its 2025 revenue outlook of $40 million to $50 million, while three analysts polled by FactSet project $45.2 million.

Recall, as we noted last month, UAMY operates the only two antimony smelters in North America, and said it is positioned to begin immediate deliveries from its domestic facilities.

“It’s incredibly meaningful for all our employees to play such a strategic role in strengthening our nation's defense readiness," USAC CEO Gary C. Evans said in a statement last month.

The deal follows months of negotiations and reflects a partnership with the Department of Defense that accelerated in late 2024. It also highlights broader U.S. efforts to reduce dependence on foreign sources, particularly China, for critical minerals and strategic materials.

Antimony, a critical mineral which is used in munitions, batteries, flame retardants, and military-grade compounds, has been flagged by defense officials as a vulnerability in the U.S. industrial base.

The Trump administration has made domestic supply-chain resilience a policy priority. Trump has taken a series of executive and policy actions aimed at securing U.S. access to critical minerals, citing national security and economic independence.

Similar initiatives have supported other strategic sectors. The federal government has backed Intel with billions of dollars in CHIPS Act funding to expand U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity, while MP Materials has received Defense Department support to boost rare earth processing, reducing reliance on overseas supply chains.

Additional announcements are also expected relatively soon around nuclear fuel and uranium, another area where U.S. officials are seeking to strengthen domestic capability and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.

Two months ago we laid out all the winners in the coming critical mineral scramble in "The Coming Rare Earth Revolution And How To Profit: All You Need To Know About The "Ex-China Supply Chain." Those who put on the recommended baskets are currently enjoying high double-digit gains. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 13:00

The Case For A Citizen-Only Census

The Case For A Citizen-Only Census

Authored by Hayden Ludwig via RealClearPolitics,

Who is the census for? Or more importantly, who does Congress represent? If you answered "U.S. citizens," you're correct – or at least you should be.

At the start of each decade, the federal government tallies who's living in the country and where, citizens and non-citizens alike. That census data determines how many seats in the House of Representatives each state receives, as well as its share of Electoral College votes for president. This whole process is mandated by Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution, the part most focused on proper representation.

But representation for whom? Since 1790, anyone and everyone living within America's borders, "excluding Indians not taxed." That's approximately 300 million Americans and 41 million non-citizens, the most in our nation's history, nearly half of them living here illegally.

Non-citizens have never been allowed to vote in congressional elections. But they receive improper representation in Congress because the census fails to exclude them from the apportionment process, when all 435 House seats are divvied up between the 50 states and D.C. That's dramatically inflated Democrats' power in the House of Representatives as the non-citizen population has grown, at Americans' expense.

Simply excluding 18.6 million illegal aliens – the most plausible estimate given by the Federation for American Immigration Reform – from the 2020 apportionment would shift eight House seats, mostly from blue to red and purple states. Removing all 41 million non-citizens would shift a stunning 22 seats the same way. In either case, these are districts that should represent U.S. citizens; instead, they're brimming with non-citizens, and Democratic Party politicians prefer it this way.

Blue states, on average, report nearly double the percentage of non-citizen residents than red states: 6.3% to 3.7%. Of the top 20 states with the largest percentage of non-citizens, only six vote red or purple. Democrats also control seven of the 10 House districts with the most non-citizens; the other three are held by Republicans, either born in Cuba or who are children of Cuban immigrants. Those seats were, until recently, Democrat-controlled. I've documented more such revelations in my recent investigative report, "The Emerging Permanent MAGA Majority."

Immigrants tend to flock to states with more job opportunities, which tend to be in states with big cities such as California and Texas, the states with the largest foreign-born populations. But as people have abandoned unlivable "progressive" fiefdoms for conservative southern states, this has turned the problem of representation inflation into a cynical opportunity to unfairly boost Democrat power.

To show this in action, imagine two congressional districts with equal populations of 760,000 residents, the national average. District A contains 700,000 U.S. citizens and 60,000 non-citizens. District B has 400,000 U.S. citizens and 360,000 non-citizens (some of them illegal aliens). Both districts elect one congressional representative, but District A’s congressman represents 360,000 more voters than District B.

As a result, a vote in District B is effectively worth twice as much as a vote in District A, because there are far fewer District A voters dividing up the same congressional seat.

Stacking blue districts with so many non-citizens lets a smaller electorate punch above its weight. This isn't a mystery; it's a core feature of Democratic electoral strategy. Take it from Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-NY), who admitted of illegal aliens in 2021 that "I need more people in my district, just for redistricting purposes." Thirty-five percent of Clarke's constituents are foreign-born, the 23rd-highest in Congress.

Counting non-citizens also artificially boosts the number of House seats in blue states, even as Americans flee Chicago and New York City for Phoenix and Jacksonville. Democrat-run states lost a net seven House seats between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, and would've lost three more seats had the Census Bureau not overcounted six blue states. In 2030, they could lose between six and nine House seats, according to recent projections.

Ironically, many of the immigrants who are unintentionally boosting Democratic seats hold traditional social views, yet they skew congressional representation toward the far left simply by living in blue cities. They're moderates represented by radicals. They’re also "voting" without a vote.

This has been the logic governing Democratic strategy for nearly three decades: Encourage mass immigration, discourage border enforcement, and reward illegal aliens with U.S. citizenship. It's why Democrats bet the farm on Hispanics building a permanent majority in Washington – never imagining that Donald Trump could convert millions of Hispanic voters into America First populists.

That's good, but it isn't enough to restore America's greatness. We have to push further and end Democrats' cynical exploitation of the census for good.

Conservatives are hawks on closing the border, but they've largely missed or ignored the injustice of counting non-citizens in the census. This isn't good politics, nor is it ethical. States such as Idaho, Ohio, and Tennessee are robbed of congressional representation because California, New Jersey, and Texas house so many non-citizens. In other words, some states are punished for having a big population of Americans – including naturalized immigrants – while others are rewarded for attracting migrants, even if they entered illegally.

This is why it's crucial to ask who the census is for, rather than how we've always done it.

The founding generation viewed the census with a very different priority than we do today: Building a nation rather than preserving one. They adopted an expansive definition of American citizenship, assuming that loyalists, British sympathizers, and other Tories would self-deport from the republic – as some 80,000 actually did. The 1790 census counted as citizens everyone who claimed the new identity of "American" and proved it by remaining within the nation's borders after the war.

Article I, Section 2 counted three-fifths of indentured servants and black slaves, but excluded Indian tribes. Why the distinction? Because one group lived under U.S. jurisdiction while the other did not. The census was never fundamentally about collecting interesting demographic data, but apportioning congressional representation. It was already outrageous and hypocritical that slaves, denied citizenship and legal rights, still inflated the southern states' seats in the House. Yet the principle was already clear: Representation belongs to those who owe allegiance to the United States Constitution, not foreigners under another sovereign power.

This is the same logic that limits voting rights to U.S. citizens. No one outside of woke Berkeley is offended that non-citizens cannot vote for our leaders, although a few blue states are trying to normalize it. In fact, bipartisan voters have approved recent Citizen-Only Voting Amendments in huge numbers in red and blue states alike.

Paul Jacob, who chairs Americans for Citizen Voting, the group behind these ballot initiatives, points out that voting and representation are inextricably linked. "Only citizens should be voting in our elections, and each state’s representation should be based on the number of U.S. citizens in the state. Not on how many illegal aliens they’ve let in," he told me. "No longer can we allow states to grab extra voting power in Congress by counting their illegal population."

To fix that, we don't need to deport every single illegal alien (though we should strive for that). We simply remove them from congressional apportionment and let the process play out fairly. Call it a "Citizen Only Census," a return to the Founders' high regard for citizenship after decades of being dragged through the mud by Democrats. The simplest way to do this is to restore a citizenship, or place of birth, question to the 2030 Census. This was the case in all but one census from 1820 to 2000.

The first Trump administration tried to in 2019 and lost 5–4 in the Supreme Court, but only because the court ruled the Commerce Department hadn't provided sufficient procedural justification. The high court did not rule that it's unconstitutional. Quite the opposite, actually: "The Enumeration Clause [Article I Section 2] does not provide a basis to set aside the Secretary's decision," the justices explained.

President Trump's first administration started late, used the wrong arguments, and still came within one vote of winning that fight. The takeaway is obvious: Start earlier with a better strategy. The court's transformation since 2019 ought to encourage them. Originalists have gained control of two liberal Supreme Court seats, establishing a supermajority and raising hopes that the court would approve restoring the citizenship question if given a second chance.

That's an opportunity patriots – and America itself – can't afford to miss.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 12:40

Israel Paying US Social Media Influencers $7,000 Per Post As Right-Wing Support Craters

Israel Paying US Social Media Influencers $7,000 Per Post As Right-Wing Support Craters

Following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's meeting in New York on Friday with a group of pro-Israel influencers, we learn that Israel is likely paying them a whopping $7,000 per pro-Israel social-media post in a desperate drive to bolster plummeting support of Israel among America's young conservatives. 

That's the conclusion of Responsible Statecraft's Nick Cleveland-Stout, based on analysis of a disclosure filed with the US Department of Justice as required by the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). While pro-Israel lobbying heavyweight AIPAC is notoriously exempt from FARA registration, the social media operation comes under the transparency law's provisions because Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is paying for it

The influence campaign is being facilitated by Bridge Partners, a DC-based firm owned by founders Yair Levi and Uri Steinberg. "[Bridge Partners] has also enlisted the help of a former major in the IDF spokesperson unit, Nadav Shtrauchler," writes Cleveland-Stout. "For legal counsel, Levi and Steinberg have turned to Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman, a firm that previously worked for controversial Israeli spyware company NSO Group."

The current phase of the campaign runs from June to November, with a $900,000 budget for a stable of 14 to 17 influencers turning out pro-Israel content. Taking into account disclosed administrative costs and the campaign's expectation that the group will produce 75-90 posts, Responsible Statecraft estimates each post will earn the influencers somewhere between $6,143 and $7,373. The individual influencers are not identified in the filings. However, given they are being paid by a foreign government to engage in political activity, the influencers seemingly have a duty to register as individual agents of the State of Israel

Netanyahu candid public statements to influencers last week raised eyebrows, as they laid bare Israel's drive to control social media discourse in the United States in a bid to shore up American support. "We're going to have to use the tools of battle," said Netanyahu. "Weapons change over time...the most important ones are in social media. And the most important purchase that is going on right now is...TikTok."

After pro-Palestinian content in the wake of the Oct 7 Hamas attacks catalyzed a long-simmering deep state drive to ban TikTok, the ban is being averted via TikTok's transfer of an 80% stake to Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz. The new owners include significant backers of Israel.

The Israeli social media push comes amid cratering support for Israel among Americans. The deterioration is strongest among Republicans who have long represented the cornerstone of Israel's backing in the United States. That trend is even more pronounced among younger Republicans: An August Responsible Statecraft poll found that just 24% of Republicans under age 35 sympathize more with Israel than the Palestinians.  

According to the FARA disclosures, Israel refers to the paid-influencer campaign as the "Esther Project." That name closely resembles "Project Esther," the Heritage Foundation proposal for the US government and pro-Israel groups to destroy the pro-Palestinian movement in the United States by declaring activists to be members of a "terrorist support network." and using that as the pretext for deportations, lawsuits, job terminations, school expulsions and exclusion from "open society."

After taking office, Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly embraced the sinister tactic, using it to arrest and jail international students who'd engaged in pro-Palestinian activism. In the most infamous case, Rubio had federal agents chain and shackle a mild-mannered, female Tufts University child development student and lock her away in a crowded detention center in Louisiana pending deportation -- all for merely writing a calm and measured op-ed in the student newspaper advocating the school's divestment from Israel. In a blistering opinion issued Tuesday, a Reagan-appointed federal judge declared that such arrests and deportations violate the First Amendment and represent an "abuse" of power: "It is hard to imagine a policy more focused on intimidating its targets from practicing protected political speech."

While that ruling is a victory for open discourse, there's no such recourse for a TikTok algorithm that's moving into the hands of Israel advocates. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 12:20

Oil Trims Losses After DOE Shows Modest Weekly Inventory Builds

Oil Trims Losses After DOE Shows Modest Weekly Inventory Builds

Oil dipped modestly, extending its two-day slide, after the latest DOE data showed another weekly increase across most oil products, even as expectations were for continued declines. 

  • Crude +1,782k vs est -50k
  • Gasoline +4,125k vs est. -80k
  • Distillates +578k vs est. -1,650k
  • Cushing crude -271k

The 1.79-million-barrel build in commercial crude stockpiles contrasts with the 3.7-million-barrel draw seen by the API on Tuesday

Following draws in the past two weeks, crude, gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to post another modest drop, but the official data showed an increase across all three products.

Increases in crude, gasoline and propane are enough to push total crude and product inventories higher versus last week. It’s the fourth overall build in the last five weeks and the largest weekly increase since early September.

Meanwhile, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma fell to around 23.5 million barrels. It’s the third draw at the hub in four weeks, bringing levels to the lowest since late August. 

Some other notable weekly changes:

  • PADD 3 crude +4,031k
  • Refinery utilization -1.6ppt vs est. -0.3ppt
  • Refinery crude inputs -308k b/d
  • Crude imports -662k b/d

The build in commercial stockpiles was boosted by another 742,000 barrels injected into the SPR. That increased the overall nationwide crude build to 2.53 million barrels in the week to Sep. 26.

Crude exports fell below 4 million barrels a day, which brings them to the lowest in about one month. More barrels staying put might have helped relieve a bit of downward pressure on US inventories, which rose to the highest since early September. 

According to BBG, a decline in Gulf Coast crude refinery runs pulled down the overall US number to 16.2 million barrels a day, the lowest level since May. That was most likely due to the turnaround at Marathon’s Garyville plant in Louisiana, one of the largest refineries in the nation. Overall US crude runs are still at the highest seasonal level since 2018.

Meanwhile, US production continued its relentless weekly increase, rising by another 4k barrels/day on the week, back near record highs, even as rig counts remain near 4 year lows. Indeed, total crude production edged higher to 13.5 million barrels a day last week, the highest since March. The small increase came as the number of rigs drilling for oil rose for a fifth straight week, with six units put into operation last week, according to Baker Hughes. At some point there will be questions about all the toxic water flowing out of Permian wells which is allowing productivity to approach 100%, but not yet...

Oil prices recovered some of their losses, having plunged from their Friday highs (oil had just closed its best week since the Iran-Israel conflict) and sinking to the lowest level since June as CTAs are now back aggressively shorting the price as long as momentum remains lower.

Finally, Bloomberg reports that US gasoline demand continues to pull back, recording a fourth consecutive decline last week based on the four-week average of product supplied. The figure is down 351,000 barrels a day over the stretch and brings the figure to a six-month low. That said, demand is still closely tracking year-ago levels and is still firmly above where it sat this week in 2023. If that trend continues, we could see a solid bounce back in the next few weeks. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 11:04

Illegal Alien Superintendent Lied About PhD, Loses License, And Earns District A DOJ Investigation Into DEI

Illegal Alien Superintendent Lied About PhD, Loses License, And Earns District A DOJ Investigation Into DEI

Ian Roberts, the Iowa superintendent who was arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement last Friday after fleeing from a traffic stop and ditching his district-issued vehicle (in which a loaded handgun, $3,000 in cash and a hunting knife was recovered) - completely lied about his bona fides. 

Des Moines schools Superintendent Ian Roberts in September 2025. School district officials said they didn’t know Roberts was in the country illegally WOI Local 5 News via AP

He's also lost his superintendent's license, while the DOJ launched an investigation hours after ICE detained him. The 54-year-old native of Guyana entered the United States on a student visa in 1999, overstayed, lied on a form claiming he was eligible to work when he was hired in 2023, and now faces deportation. 

According to the Des Moines RegisterRoberts never obtained a doctoral degree from Maryland university - something which would have been easy to verify during the vetting process. Roberts has "long stated that he received a doctoral degree from Morgan State University in Baltimore. But a university spokesperson told the Des Moines Register on Monday that Roberts did not obtain a degree from the school, despite attending Morgan State from the fall of 2002 through the spring of 2007."

He attempted to obtain a doctorate in urban educational leadership. Despite his failure, Roberts has claimed on multiple occasions to have "completed" the degree at Morgan State, including in a 2009 self-published book. 

A November 2024 article published on the Des Moines Public School website claimed "Roberts excelled academically and... completed education programs at Coppin, St. John’s, Morgan State, Harvard’s Graduate School of Education, Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business and an MBA at MIT’s Sloan School of Management."

Meanwhile, the Iowa Board of Educational Examiners revoked Roberts' superintendent's license on Sept. 29. 

What's more, the Justice Department opened an investigation into the school district hours after Roberts was detained. According to the Washington Examiner, the DOJ wrote to interim superintendent Matthew Smith informing him of the investigation into the district's alleged DEI programs

"Our investigation is based on information that DMPS may be engaged in employment practices that discriminate against employees, job applicants, and training program participants based on race, color, and national origin in violation of Title VII," wrote Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights Harmeet Dhillon. 

DOJ says that Des Moines Public Schools set diversity quotas and pushed DEI in the school system.

"Diversity enriches the climate and strengthens the effectiveness of our schools… We believe it is in the best interests of our school district to develop an employee culture reflective of the greater society," Dhillon quoted the school as stating - further citing the school's 2021 Affirmative Action Plan, which included "race-and-color-based teacher recruitment goals."

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/01/2025 - 11:00

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