"Chinese Empire Is Next": Townsend Warns Beijing's Energy Dominance Is Rewriting The Global Order

Veteran energy economist Dr. Anas Alhajji said during last night’s ZeroHedge debate that Iranian crude trading activity reflects a serious peace deal sticking. Alhajji joined Jeff Currie, co-chair of Abaxx Exchange, and Erik Townsend of Macro Voices to weigh in on the Iran deal’s implications for oil prices, which he believes are poised for a significant decline. Townsend, meanwhile, thinks China will come out on top. 

Currie, unlike Alhajji, remains bullish crude due to supply constraints and, assuming Hormuz does open Friday, there is still a 6-week lag before ships begin reaching their destination. That… and there’s no telling what the Israelis will do given that hardliners are already voicing their plans to continue attacking Lebanon, violating a core component of the ceasefire.

Here were some highlights though we recommend the full discussion included at the end:

Alhajji: Iran Deal Is Serious

Alhajji argued the current ceasefire, even if tested, is likely serious.

"The question is, if this deal does not work, what is the default?" Alhajji asked. "It seems that if we have a default, basically, we are going to end up with a status quo where there is no war, no peace," he said. "I don't think we are going to revert to a war. It will be a default somehow of a status quo with attacks from time to time."

Tehran seems to credibly want a lasting peace, Alhajji said, judging by their ceasing of shadow discount sales to China.

"I'm going to tell you something that tells me that this is really serious," he said. "If we go back and study the Iranian behavior, now the market is telling us that Iranians are not able to export most of their oil because of the blockade. Well, that is not the case because if you go back to the era before the negotiations, the Iranians were able to smuggle.”

“When they are certain that there will be a solution, they look at it this way: ‘So, okay, either I sell my own oil to China at 40% discount… Or I wait just for a month or a few weeks, I'm going to get world price.’”

The fact that the Iranians are waiting for worldwide sales indicates a genuine anticipation that a peace deal is tangible.

pic.twitter.com/1Yjv1kYBe0

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026

The Chinese Century?

Host Erik Townsend argued that the current Hormuz crisis may highlight a strategic advantage China has spent decades building:

"I'm sorry, I know a lot of Americans don't want to hear this, but sometimes the truth hurts. China has by far, by far, the most advanced nuclear energy program in the world. They've done more to diversify their energy resources. They've been smarter than anyone else, including us, about planning."

Referencing Currie's recent Carlyle Group research paper called the "New Joule Order," Townsend suggested that energy strategy ultimately shapes geopolitical power.

"Who's in charge of the world really derives from military power," he said. "Military power derives from energy dominance. Energy dominance derives from energy strategy and energy policy. And China's is a hell of a lot better than anybody else's, including ours."

“We went from the British Empire to the American Empire… I think the Chinese Empire is next and I think energy policy is what takes them there."

Currie agreed that the existing global framework is reaching an inflection point, though he argued the next era will be defined by a different form of energy competition.

"I definitely think that we ran the course of Bretton Woods, which was defined by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. dollar, and the global oil trade," Currie said. "I think it's come to a head right now and we need to replace it."

pic.twitter.com/xgSNhQPV6M

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) June 17, 2026

Watch the full debate below, on YouTube, or listen on Spotify.

https://t.co/z5iLukR1a7

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 16, 2026

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:20

Trucking Group Asks Federal Court To Strip New York, California Of CDL Authority

Authored by Noi Mahoney via FreightWaves,

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC) has filed a court petition seeking to force federal regulators to decertify the commercial driver’s license programs of New York and California.

The Small Business in Transportation Coalition said the U.S. Department of Transportation has failed to enforce federal law after finding states out of compliance. (Photo: Jim Alen/Freightwaves)

The petition, filed June 10, asks the court to review actions by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration and the U.S. Department of Transportation and order the agencies to revoke the authority of New York and California to issue CDLs, escalating a dispute over immigration-related licensing policies and English-language proficiency requirements for commercial drivers.

SBTC argues that FMCSA has already determined both states were in “substantial noncompliance” with federal CDL regulations and therefore must be decertified under federal law. The organization contends that federal statutes require the transportation secretary to prohibit a state from issuing CDLs once such a determination is made.

The filing, made in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, specifically challenges FMCSA’s April 16 final determination regarding New York and also seeks relief related to a Jan. 7 determination involving California.

SBTC alleges the agency improperly failed to act on a petition it submitted in May 2025 requesting decertification orders against several states, including New York and California.

Virginia crash cited in petition

The lawsuit comes less than two weeks after a fatal bus crash on Interstate 95 in Virginia that killed five people and injured dozens more.

According to the court filing, SBTC points to the May 29 crash as evidence that stronger enforcement of federal licensing standards is needed. The organization alleges the bus driver involved held a New York-issued CDL despite concerns about English-language proficiency.

The crash involved a bus operated by E&P Travel Inc. Federal investigators are examining the company’s connections to a broader network of bus operators in the Northeast, according to CBS News. The driver, identified by CBS News as Jing S. Dong of Staten Island, New York, faces five felony involuntary manslaughter charges.

Compliance findings at center of dispute

SBTC’s petition centers on FMCSA’s nationwide review of state CDL programs following changes to federal rules governing non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses.

The coalition says FMCSA’s audits initially identified 24 states and the District of Columbia as being in substantial noncompliance with federal CDL requirements. According to the filing, New York and California ultimately received final notices of substantial noncompliance after federal reviews of their handling of non-domiciled CDL and permit applications.

The petition alleges New York’s noncompliance rate exceeded 55%, while California’s was about 25% during federal audits. SBTC argues those findings legally trigger mandatory decertification orders.

FMCSA previously warned multiple states that they could face funding consequences or additional enforcement actions if they failed to comply with federal CDL standards for non-domiciled drivers.

Latest chapter in broader legal battle

The lawsuit follows a separate high-profile challenge brought by Florida against California and Washington.

In May, the U.S. Supreme Court declined Florida’s request to file an original-action lawsuit alleging California and Washington violated federal law by issuing CDLs to undocumented immigrants.

The case stemmed from a fatal crash on Florida’s Turnpike involving a truck driver who reportedly held a California-issued CDL and had previously been licensed in Washington.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 17:00

Trump Invokes Defense Production Act As US Moves To Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles

The Trump administration is seeking a major increase in defense spending while simultaneously using executive authority to accelerate weapons production, reflecting growing concern over U.S. munitions inventories after the war with Iran, according to NBC.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Senate Republicans this week to rally support for a proposed $350 billion defense package, much of which would be directed toward replenishing missile and weapons stockpiles.

According to NBC, Sen. John Cornyn said the Pentagon is “running short of funding they need in order to acquire the weapons and missiles and things like that that they need to protect the nation.”

While Republicans are broadly supportive, some lawmakers have signaled they want a clearer justification for the spending, particularly as debate continues over the costs and consequences of the Iran conflict.

Behind the scenes, President Donald Trump has also moved to boost production capacity. Last week, he quietly invoked the Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era law that allows the federal government to prioritize contracts and coordinate industry efforts to expand critical manufacturing.

In a June 11 memo, Trump argued that production bottlenecks and supply-chain challenges could undermine military readiness, writing, “I hereby find that conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defense or its preparedness programs.”

The administration has reportedly been discussing the possibility of using the law since the early stages of the conflict.

The decision comes despite public assurances from administration officials that weapons supplies remain adequate.

Hegseth recently dismissed reports of shortages, saying, “Our stockpiles are strong and they will only get stronger in the future.”

Nevertheless, the administration’s push for both emergency production measures and additional funding suggests officials are preparing for a sustained effort to rebuild inventories and strengthen long-term defense readiness.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:40

Of The Elite, By The Elite, For The Elite

Authored by John C. Eastman via The American Mind,

For generations, Democrats have portrayed themselves as the party of ordinary Americans - factory workers, waitresses, truck drivers, police officers, construction workers, and middle-class families trying to get ahead. Yet one of the most striking features of modern American politics is how often Democrat leaders, activists, and media allies seem genuinely baffled by the very people they claim to represent.

The latest example comes from Washington Post columnist Monica Hesse, whose reaction to President Trump’s appearance at a packed UFC event on the White House lawn last weekend revealed a familiar pattern among America’s cultural elites. To tens of millions of Americans, UFC is simply entertainment. It is competitive, exciting, patriotic, and increasingly mainstream.

To Hesse and myriad other journalists and political commentators, however, its popularity seems to require explanation - as though they are studying the customs of a distant tribe.

That reaction says far more about elite America than it does about UFC fans, and few institutions better embody elite opinion than the modern Democrat Party.

The inability to understand ordinary Americans has become a recurring problem for Democrats. Consider one of the most famous campaign images in modern history. In 1988, Democrat presidential nominee Michael Dukakis climbed into a tank in an effort to project foreign policy credibility. Though the campaign intended the image to demonstrate Dukakis’s strength and command in order to reassure wary voters, the photograph instead became a political disaster.

To many Americans, Dukakis did not look like a commander-in-chief - he looked like Alfred E. Neuman from MAD magazine, wearing an oversized helmet and generally appearing out of his element. The embarrassing image became iconic because it captured something larger than a single campaign mistake: a cohort of American elites - consultants, strategists, and media professionals - who apparently thought the photo was a good idea.

The same kind of blindness occasionally appears among establishment Republicans as well. George H.W. Bush’s comments upon seeing a new and improved grocery store scanner became a symbol - fairly or unfairly - of a politician disconnected from everyday life. But while both parties have produced elite figures detached from ordinary concerns, the problem is far more pronounced today on the Left.

Indeed, many of the institutions that now shape Democrat politics are populated almost exclusively by people who live, work, and socialize within a remarkably narrow slice of America. They attend the same universities, read the same publications, and live in the same metropolitan areas. They follow the same social-media accounts. Their children attend the same schools, and their friends share the same political and cultural assumptions.

And increasingly, they seem unable to comprehend how other Americans think.

When Hillary Clinton dismissed millions of voters as a “basket of deplorables,” many Americans viewed the comment not as a gaffe but as a rare moment of honesty. It reflected a prevailing attitude among Democrats, and elites more broadly, that disagreement could be explained only by ignorance, prejudice, or moral deficiency.

President Biden repeatedly displayed a similar tendency. During the 2024 campaign (before he was ousted), he and his allies often portrayed concerns about illegal immigration, inflation, crime, and cultural change as either exaggerated or illegitimate, even as polling showed those issues dominating voters’ concerns. Time and again, Democrat leaders appeared surprised that Americans cared more about grocery prices and border security than about the priorities emphasized by elite institutions.

Vice President Kamala Harris often suffered from the same disconnect. Her public appearances frequently projected the impression that she was speaking to an audience of policy experts rather than to working Americans -when she was not donning fake accents, that is. Her campaign’s struggles were not merely ideological; they were cultural. Many voters simply concluded that she did not understand their lives.

The pattern extends well beyond politicians.

Millions of Americans attend NASCAR races, pack country music concerts, and watch UFC fights. Elite commentators scoff and express bewilderment in response. Millions more display American flags, fill church pews, and worry about rising crime and open borders. Too often, the response from elite circles is not curiosity but contempt.

The Democrat Party once excelled at connecting with ordinary Americans precisely because it better understood their views. Franklin Roosevelt, known as a “traitor to his class,” spoke the language of workers because he wanted them to be part of the Democrats’ coalition for generations. Harry Truman connected with voters because he shared many of their instincts. Even Bill Clinton possessed an intuitive feel for middle-class anxieties and aspirations.

Today’s Democrat coalition increasingly draws its leadership from elite universities, media organizations, nonprofits, foundations, government bureaucracies, and professional-class enclaves. These institutions exercise enormous cultural influence, but they are not representative of America as a whole.

As a result, Democrats increasingly mistake the views traded in faculty lounges, newsroom editorial meetings, and Washington policy conferences for the views held around kitchen tables. That confusion helps explain their shock at one political surprise after another, especially Trump’s victories in 2016 and 2024.

Democrat strategists express astonishment after yet another batch of election results defies their expectations. Panels of “experts” search for explanations, and reports are circulated that blame political circumstances or voters’ various “isms.” But the possibility that the Democrats have lost touch with ordinary Americans is rarely, if ever, considered.

A political movement cannot represent people it does not understand. And it cannot understand the views of many Americans, whom it increasingly views with a mixture of confusion, suspicion, and disdain. For a party that still considers itself the party of the people, that is a major problem it has yet to reckon with.

And it is also a problem for America as a whole. A healthy republic depends on officeholders who can understand - and respect - the culture and traditions of their fellow citizens, even when they do not share them. When America’s governing and cultural elites lose the ability to see the nation as it actually is, they make poorer decisions, deepen political divisions, and erode the mutual trust on which self-government depends.

A republic cannot long endure if those who wield influence come to view ordinary Americans not as fellow citizens to be understood but as strangers to be belittled and ignored.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 16:20

Fed Holds Rates Unchanged (As Expected), 'Dots' Signal Hawkish Bias As Warsh Takes Over

Tl;dr: No rate change (as expected) but a dramatically hawkish shift in The Fed's bias (9 members seeing at least one hike this year). Statement smilled down dramatically, also biases towards hawkish focus on price stability (inflation) over employment: "The Committee will deliver price stability".

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed.” - BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey

*  *  *

Since the last FOMC meeting (Jay Powell's final one as Fed Chair) on April 29th, markets have shifted sharply with oil plunging (along with weakness in gold and bitcoin) while stocks have rallied sharply (shrugging off a brief dip) with bonds unchanged and the dollar modestly stronger...

The US macro-economic data has surprised considerably to the upside since the last FOMC (with strong 'hard' and 'soft' data and the labor market showing significant resilience)...

With both Growth and Inflation signals rising (a dilemma for The Fed)...

Additionally, the market has shifted significantly more hawkish since the last FOMC (still pricing cuts) and obviously dramatically more hawkish since the start of the war...

But this Fed meeting is different as Kevin Warsh takes the mantle from Jay Powell (who remains on the board) as Fed Chair with the key risk for markets is that expectations for a dovish Warsh have become elevated.

So What Did The Fed Do?

The Fed left rates unchanged as expected:

• FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN UNANIMOUS VOTE

• NO DISSENTS

And the statement was dramatically shortened, entirely dropping paragraph 4:

• FED REMOVES STATEMENT REFERENCE TO ADDITIONAL RATE ADJUSTMENTS

No forward guidance in the statement

Read the full red-line below:

Balance Sheet

The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday adjusted the language of its policy implementation note to reflect that it instructs the Open Market Desk at the New York Fed to increase its purchases of Treasury bills “when appropriate.”

• According to the implementation note FOMC instructed, “When appropriate, increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

• That compares with the April memo, which said: “Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of securities through purchases of Treasury bills and, if needed, other Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 3 years or less to maintain an ample level of reserves”

The 'Dots'

The 'Dots' are clearly signaling an end to the 'easing bias' of the prior Fed: with nine members seeing at least one rate hike this year:

2026 dot distribution changes:

• 3 rate-hikes: from 0 to 1

• 2 rate-hikes: from 0 to 5

• 1 rate-hike: from 0 to 3

• No rate change: from 7 to 8

• 1 rate cut: from 7 to 1

• 2 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 3 rate cuts: from 2 to 0

• 4 rate-cuts: from 1 (Stephen Miran) to 0

Only 18 of 19 officials submitted their 'dots' with some suggesting Warsh himself did not contribute

Could this be the last time we see the 'Dots' (with Warsh's notable rejection of forward guidance)?

Economic Projections

The new inflation forecasts are really not good.

Core PCE is seen rising 3.3% this year, well above the 2.7% penciled in back in March.

That means no disinflation from right now, because the most recent core inflation reading was indeed 3.3%.

But, the median forecast of those submitting projections shows inflation slowing to 2.5% next year, but still notably up on 2.2% last time.

Growth is also seen slowing...

...but unemployment improving

All eyes now on Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair which is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

Will Trump react to the lack of a rate-cut?

Will be ironic if Trump fires Warsh before EOD after he doesn't cut

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:50

Crypto Scammers Using Couriers To Collect Cash, Avoid Detection: FBI

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Crypto scammers are using couriers to pick up cash from victims in person to avoid being traced by banks, the FBI is warning.

The fraudsters first approach targets, typically seniors, with business or romantic proposals via social media, texts, or a fake cryptocurrency investment profile, the bureau said in a June 15 public service announcement alert.

“After establishing a relationship with the victim, the scammer suggests investing in cryptocurrency and instructs the victim to download specific cryptocurrency trading applications and create investment accounts.”

Typically, victims are asked to send wire transfers to various domestic and international bank accounts under the guise of deposit accounts.

They get access to websites showing fictitious returns on investment, which entices them to deposit even more money.

Legitimate financial institutions often flag such transfers as suspicious and block them. To bypass this, scammers are instructing victims to hand over money to fake investment accounts via in-person cash pickups.

The victims are led to believe the money they send will be deposited into their investment accounts.

“Once the cash pickup occurs and the courier departs, victims can see an increase in deposits in their virtual wallet displayed on their account with the scammer’s investment platform,” the FBI said.

“When the victim attempts to withdraw their perceived profits, scammers will begin the loop over by forcing the victim to pay fraudulent taxes and penalties, again using couriers for cash pickups to perpetrate the fraud.”

In 2024 the FBI issued an alert about couriers being used by scammers who had convinced their victims into liquidating their assets into cash or precious metals.

The fraudsters, posing as tech support or government officials, would insist such an action was necessary to protect the target’s funds because their financial accounts were hacked or at risk of being hacked.

In its latest alert, the FBI advised people to protect their personal information, such as banking details, and to never meet with unknown individuals to hand over cash or other valuables as part of any investment scheme.

“Beware of ‘love bombing,’ a social manipulation technique employed by online scammers and other malicious actors wherein a victim is quickly showered with praise, attention, and manipulated to feel trust and intimacy with a person prior to having their lowered guard exploited by a scam or other malicious behavior,” the agency said.

According to the FBI’s 2025 Internet Crime Report, published in April, the agency’s Internet Crime Complaint Center received 181,565 complaints regarding various cryptocurrency schemes last year, up 21 percent from 2024.

Losses from these complaints totaled over $11.36 billion. The average loss was $62,604, and 18,589 people lost more than $100,000 each.

The largest group of complaints filed were made by people over the age of 60. They also suffered the highest losses, totaling more than $4.43 billion.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:45

Democrat Politicians Seethe After Baseball Players "Deface" Pride Night With Bible Verses

Recently we reported on the MLB's angry response to three San Francisco Giants players who scribbled bible verses across their "Pride Night" uniforms in a silent protest.  The incident takes place in the midst of a rising tide of popular opposition to the woke movement's political authoritarianism.  Gay pride has become synonymous with the liberal "cry-bully":  Activists who try to assert social dominance over others then play the victim when people fight back.

California State Senator and rabid gay activist Scott Wiener is the epitome of a typical woke cry-bully.  He is perhaps best known as an advocate for the "kink community" and his defense of gender treatments (hormones and sex change surgeries) for children.  He is also a militant supporter of sexualized LGBT propaganda in public schools. 

Wiener has criticized medical facilities that refuse to give gender bending treatments to people under 19 years of age and supported measures to make California a "transgender safe haven".

It's therefore not surprising that Wiener is enraged by anything Christian or biblical entering his big gay domain, and he had a lot to say about the Giant's players who defiled his precious Pride Night. 

Senator Wiener on MAGA Homophobic Backlash Against Major League Baseball:

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to…

— Senator Scott Wiener (@Scott_Wiener) June 16, 2026

“On San Francisco Giants Pride Night — also the tenth anniversary of the Pulse nightclub massacre — several players defaced their Pride caps with a biblical passage that has been hijacked by homophobes to ‘take back’ the rainbow from LGBTQ people. The players could have displayed this passage any night of the year but chose to do it only on Pride Night.

The Giants, sadly, took no action in response, which is inconsistent with the Giants’ longstanding support for our LGBTQ community. Major League Baseball then warned the players that MLB rules bar defacement of uniforms. The Giants should publicly commit to enforcing rules around uniform defacement and should not effectively create a homophobia exemption to those rules..."

The state senator acts as if the players broke some kind of law.  Baseball club rules are private business arrangements, not statutes that require the the frantic complaints of a homosexual Karen.  That said, Wiener's response to this event is quite revealing. 

Biblical scripture references are not "defacement", at least not of anything sacred.  But to Wiener, the act is the same as if someone burned a Bible or a Koran.  The woke seething over such a minor thing makes it clear that the LGBT movement is not a civil rights movement; that ended decades ago.  Today, the LGBT movement is a political supremacy movement, and prominent athletes have every right to openly oppose it.  

The pride event featured a number of LGBT promotions, including 10 same-sex married couples renewing their vows before the first pitch (what this has to do with baseball is unclear).  Interestingly, the crowd turnout for Pride Night games has been crashing in the past couple years.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors member and Democrat Matt Dorsey, who is openly gay and claims to be a "person of faith", complained on social media about the bible verses.  He called the incident “disappointing in several respects” and he views the players as “problematically undisciplined".  He asserts that professional athletes’ uniforms are not a “canvas for individual self-expression - especially about politics.”   

This issue is, of course, a matter between the players and their employers, not a matter of politics.  However, the woke movement, which is now in decline, views their takeover of American sports as a particularly important coup.  The traditionally masculine industry is now a platform to spread gay Marxist gender theory.  No one would have believed it a couple decades ago, and the political left is desperate not to lose ground in this arena of the culture war. 

D-backs pitcher Ryan Thompson, who is a proclaimed Christian, spoke on the MLB warning SF Giants players who wrote Bible verses on Pride Night caps:

"I think there's a perceived negativity with this stuff. Landen Roupp wrote a verse on his hat that means he's anti something.… pic.twitter.com/SFFJARW6v6

— Blake Niemann (@Blakes_Take2) June 17, 2026

At bottom, leftists view American culture as a series of platforms to be targeted and co-opted.  They were wildly successful for around a decade, but things are changing rapidly now that the general public is aware of the agenda.  Activist politicians like Wiener are angry about a bible verse on a baseball cap because, to them, this is a symbol of their shrinking power over the common discourse. 

The notion of a political movement rooted in forcing the populace to celebrate the aberrant sexual hobbies of its members is not winning the hearts and minds of anyone.  It's doing the opposite.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:25

First Iranian Oil Moves Past US Blockade Ahead Of Deal Signing

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

Iran’s first observed crude oil exports in two months have moved past the US blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz in a sign that Iran is wasting no time to take advantage of the tentative deal with the United States.

Following the announcement of the deal this weekend, and ahead of a formal signing ceremony expected in Switzerland on Friday, at least three Iranian crude oil tankers have exited the Strait of Hormuz and departed from the region moving past the U.S. blockade so far this week, tanker-tracking firms have said.

TankerTrackers.com has estimated through AIS data corroborated by satellite imagery that at least two supertankers of the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) have moved through the U.S. blockade. The very large crude carriers (VLCCs), named Diona and Hero2, have kade perimeter carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil between them, TankerTrackers.com said.

“These are Iran's first crude oil exports in two months,” the ship-tracking service said.

BREAKING: CRUDE OIL DEPARTS IRAN FOLLOWING A TWO MONTH LONG NAVY BLOCKADE

According to AIS data which we corroborated yesterday (2026-06-15) by satellite imagery, at least two National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) VLCC supertankers named DIONA (9569695) and HERO2 (9362073) have… pic.twitter.com/tSesQTcC6K

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) June 16, 2026

Another tanker of the National Iranian Tanker Company, the Stream, is approaching the U.S. blockade line from the exclusive economic zone of Pakistan, where she spent the past 7 weeks waiting to enter Iran, according to TankerTrackers.com.

Kpler has observed a third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude that exited the blockade line on Wednesday.

“Iran is wasting no time getting its tankers back into circulation,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The VLCC Dan of the NITC has left the area near the Riau archipelago where it has been dark since May 23 and is now heading to Iran for loading, Bockmann added.

The Iranian oil tanker traffic is intensifying, with the deal that would launch 60-day negotiations set to be signed in Geneva on Friday. In addition, Iran is preparing to take advantage of the U.S. allowing Iranian oil sales immediately upon signing of the agreement. Under the agreement expected to formally end the war between the United States and Iran, Tehran will be allowed to immediately resume oil and fuel sales, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the details of the deal.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 15:05

"The Kevin Warsh Era Has Arrived With A Bang": Wall Street Reacts To Warsh's First FOMC

Below is a snapshot of several kneejerk reactions from some Wall street economists, strategists and traders:

Anna Wong, head economist at Bloomberg:

“The Kevin Warsh era has arrived with a bang – in the form of a dramatically shortened FOMC policy statement and a dot plot that didn’t contain any dot from the chairman himself. That marks a break from the eras of former chairs Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke. But the rest of the committee sent an equally strong signal: They want rate hikes. Half of the committee penciled in hikes this year, while the other half anticipates holding rates steady or cutting once. That means Warsh could play a key role in influencing the direction of rates. We no longer expect the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points later this year.”

Christopher Hodge, chief US economist at Natixis

"Thinks this is overall a hawkish move -- rates steady, easing biased removed, no dissents. The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability….all in all, a hawkish statement... The statement, much shorter than previous statements, concludes with a commitment to delivery price stability…. all in all, a hawkish statement.”"

Kay Haigh, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

"Today’s meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data. Our base case remains that the Fed can just about avoid hikes, but the path is narrow and there will be a high premium on the incoming inflation data.”

Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Economics

“The market is focused on the dot plot for now, with half the committee thinking there will be hikes. The bear flattening seems reasonable based on that. Those who looked for a quiet first Warsh FOMC meeting must be disappointed. Warsh’s stamp on the statement seems evident, with language moving closer to the style used before the Global Financial Crisis. The effort to make the Fed less transparent may reduce day-to-day volatility, but it risks larger jumps when the Fed’s reaction function or economic data surprise markets... “We thought Warsh might be diplomatic in taking on his post as Fed chair, and the creation of these task forces allows for shifts in the way the central bank functions, while giving everyone within the building a voice and giving him a means to express his own views while assessing the those of others.””

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management

“Warsh turned the table over in the Eccles Building with a radical simplification of the Fed’s policy announcement. By doing this, he’s actually inviting more Fed-speak, not less. Now every Fed President will fill the gap left by the punchy policy announcement. This may backfire on Warsh.”

David Wilcox, Bloomberg Economics: 

"The committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. That’s notable, because the statement didn’t have to address it -- and analysts had been thinking one way Warsh could slim down the Fed’s balance sheet would be to revert from ample reserves to scarce reserves,” Wilcox said. “Today’s statement suggests they’re not doing that -- at least not right off the bat.”

Marvin Loh, State Street

“The biggest initial message from Warsh is that the commutations process is changing if we look at the wholesale changes to the policy statement. Bare bones is an understatement and for a market that has become accustomed to extensive Fed communications, we may need to read between the lines more closely with less lines available. We can now wonder how long the presser will last.”

Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers

“The market moves reflect a repricing of Fed credibility and independence. Inflation is clearly back at the center of the reaction function of the central bank and someone is at its helm. This reinforces a higher-for-longer real rate environment.”

Developing

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:48

California Has Gay-Certification Program To Tap Into $633 Million For "LGBT" Businesses

Authored by Christopher F. Rufo & Austen Hufford via City Journal,

Americans are used to handouts for favored groups. Affirmative action in university admissions, corporate “diversity” initiatives, and minority-owned contracting requirements direct opportunities, resources, and contracts to supposedly “oppressed” groups, such as women, Native Americans, blacks, and Hispanics.

In California, state Democrats have embraced another kind of favoritism: contracts for state-certified gay-owned businesses.

The scheme operates through the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which regulates privately owned utility companies. California utilities spent more than $43 billion in 2024 on contractors—fuel suppliers, surveyors, engineers, and others—whose work helps deliver water, gas, electricity, and internet service to California’s 39 million residents.

In 1986, Governor George Deukmejian signed Assembly Bill 3678, which required certain CPUC-regulated utilities to submit annual “plans” for buying goods and services from woman- and minority-owned companies. Two years later, CPUC created its “Supplier Diversity Program,” which would enforce the law and set contracting “goals” for large utilities.

Under a series of Democratic governors, the program has expanded to include gay-owned businesses. In September 2014, then-Governor Jerry Brown signed legislation requiring CPUC to recognize “LGBT-owned businesses” as eligible for supplier-diversity benefits. Five years later, Governor Gavin Newsom expanded the program further, “encouraging” other companies involved in the energy sector to award contracts to gay-owned firms.

In the years that followed, CPUC faced activist pressure as it implemented the gay expansion. BuildOUT California, a since-rebranded LGBT building-industry organization, sent a letter to the commission arguing that “homophobia” existed within “the ranks of the utility companies.” The state’s legislative LGBTQ caucus suggested in a 2021 letter that even considering lower gay-procurement targets was “an insult to the LGBTQ+ community.”

By 2022, CPUC had fully implemented the expansion. In practice, this meant establishing a “goal” for utility companies with annual revenues exceeding $25 million to buy things from state-certified LGBT businesses: 0.5 percent of procurement in 2022; 1 percent in 2023; and 1.5 percent in 2024 and beyond. If “large” CPUC-regulated utilities met these “goals” in 2024, they would have sent roughly $633 million to LGBT-owned firms.

This scheme raises an obvious question: How does a business qualify as officially gay? Paperwork. Supplier Clearinghouse, a group that certifies firms for the CPUC program, features a list of qualifications linked on its website. Applicants can secure certification by providing a letter from an “LGBT organization” attesting to their sexual preferences; proof that a newspaper identified them as “LGBT”; or three letters from “personal contacts” written “on company letterhead” attesting to their homosexual orientation. Corporate officials who “falsely represent” their business as gay face up to a year in county jail.

Supplier Clearinghouse also accepts gay-certification letters from the National LGBTQ+ & Allied Chamber of Commerce. The chamber has its own list of accepted documents, including human resources complaints or police records claiming LGBT discrimination. As NGLCC states on its website, “Certification is a journey, not a destination.”

Mary Ann Horton has experienced this “journey” firsthand. Horton, an early internet pioneer credited with helping develop the e-mail attachment, is a white male who “transitioned” and is now married to a woman. Horton’s company, Red Ace, is registered in California as a woman- and LGBT-owned business.

The application process, Horton told City Journal, required “a mess of documentation.” To prove that Red Ace was “lesbian-owned,” Horton sent Supplier Clearinghouse a domestic-partner affidavit. To establish that the business was woman-owned, Horton submitted a birth certificate, which had been reissued in Washington State post-“transition.” To prove transgender status, Horton filed a “therapist carry-letter,” a document from a medical professional certifying transgender identity.

These designations came with perks. After Red Ace secured these labels, Horton said, San Diego Gas & Electric brought the company on as a part-time cybersecurity contractor. During the hiring process, Horton told us, a company official said that being on the diversity list made the contract much easier to secure.

“If I was a straight, white male, I might be concerned I don’t have the same opportunity,” Horton said. “It worked out great for me.”

LGBT-owned companies in California play other roles. In 2022, SDG&E spent $8.6 million, or 0.36 percent of procurement, on LGBT businesses, apparently including one that produced a training video on supplier diversity. “Never fear when your Ambassador for Excellence is here,” an animated character says in the video. “I can show you exactly how to source diverse vendors.” Other certified LGBT businesses in California include a sign-language interpreter, a kombucha maker, and a “coaching” firm whose services include a “series” to help people “manage” their feelings about “[t]he latest election cycle.”

In California, preferential public contracting is technically illegal. In 1996, voters approved Proposition 209, which banned the state from granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, or ethnicity in public employment, education, and contracting. More than two decades later, in 2020, they rejected an effort to repeal the ban.

CPUC’s arm-twisting regulations violate the spirit of the law. The commission lists several specific “goals” for utilities’ contracting rates: 15 percent to minority-owned firms; 5 percent to women-owned firms; 1.5 percent to disabled-veteran-owned firms; and, most recently, 1.5 percent to LGBT-owned firms. It claims that these goals are not a “requirement” or “quota.” In practice, however, the agency cajoles utilities into compliance by requiring them to collect extensive demographic data, submit detailed annual reports, list their plans for increasing procurement from favored groups, and explain “any circumstances that may have resulted in not meeting” their procurement “goals.”

Despite the commission’s efforts, however, utilities and businesses don’t seem interested in LGBT certification. Large utilities’ procurement with LGBT-owned businesses decreased by 5 percent in 2024. Supplier Clearinghouse lists 3,750 Minority Business Enterprises, but only 451 LGBT-certified firms.

CPUC did not respond to our request for comment by deadline.

The state imposed these rules based on the view that government spending should not merely purchase goods and services, but should also engineer social outcomes. Under this framework, buying a hammer from a firm owned by a black transgender lesbian has more social value than buying the same hammer from a firm owned by a straight white man.

But Californians don’t need an energy system delivered by gay contractors; they need an energy system that works. Utility regulators should be in the business of regulating utilities, not verifying contractors’ sexual preferences. Companies should award contracts based on competence, quality, and cost—not the sexuality of the business owners.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:45

Watch Live: Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference As Fed Chair

Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair is likely to be the most important event risk of the meeting.

With The Fed leaving rates unchanged as practically 100% expected (with no dissents), and a very hawkish signal sent from the 'Dots', the question on everyone's lips is simple: "What Will Warsh Do?" (WWWD?)

Will he shift to a cautiously hawkish path citing a resilient labor market, higher growth and soaring inflation...

...or will he reiterate the current easing bias as support for the lower leg of the 'K-shaped' economy (and what President Trump wants), looking through inflation fears (as the Iran MoU offered him a gift)?

A dovish Warsh would be the surprise with the market more than fully-pricing-in one rate-hike this year:

From a regime-change perspective, he is also expected to drop forward guidance on future Fed actions, even going so far as dropping the 'Dots' (and has been vocal about the size of the Fed balance sheet), which could raise uncertainty and this push bond vol higher.

Amid all of this Bloomberg's Michael Ball says that, from a trading perspective, the curve-flattening case is straightforward: firm growth and sticky inflation keep Fed hiking risks alive at the front end, while fading energy-tail risks and a more independent-looking Warsh should reduce term premium farther out.

A centrist, inflation-conscious Warsh is enough to flatten the curve further.

Reporters will be asking about: a 'missing dot', a drastically more hawkish 'dots', a dramatically-shortened statement, and a clear hawkish bias (seemingly more focus on the inflation side of the maNdate more than employment).

Watch Kevin Warsh's first press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 14:25

Big Oil Tankers Abruptly U-Turn Toward Hormuz Ahead Of US-Iran Peace Deal Signing

Ahead of the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal on Friday, Brent crude futures briefly fell below $80 a barrel, as traders priced a quicker pace of supply flows that could normalize in the Gulf area as the Strait of Hormuz moves toward reopening.

That is welcome news on the US inflation front, with lower crude prices helping ease pressure across gasoline, diesel, freight, and other input costs. Back in the Gulf region, early maritime signals suggest commercial vessels are reversing course and heading toward the Hormuz maritime chokepoint in anticipation of a reopening.

Bloomberg reports that two tankers, the Suezmax Kapodistrias 21 and the VLCC Coslucky Lake, both switched destinations and made abrupt U-turns, heading toward major energy terminals in the Gulf.

Most shipowners remain very cautious about an interim peace deal to resolve the Hormuz disruption, but early movers are trying to capitalize on high freight rates while a risk premium remains attached to any Hormuz transit.

According to Kpler data, 60 supertankers are waiting near the Gulf of Oman, up from just 36 earlier this month. There are also 150 ballasting tankers in that area.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that QatarEnergy is preparing to restart LNG flows at the Laffan complex, which exported almost 20% of global supply last year, at 50% capacity within one month and about 80% within two months - well ahead of earlier timelines. Still, full capacity at the LNG facility could take several years to restore due to war-related damage.

UBS energy research analyst Henri Patricot provided clients with the latest Hormuz flows (up to Sunday):

Oil & gas tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships entering and exiting the Gulf

Oil & gas tankers exiting the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Oil & gas tankers entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, in number of ships

Estimated oil and gas flows exiting the Gulf, based on DWT, in Mboe/d

Oil and products transit via Strait of Hormuz by destination (Mb/d)

Weekly average crude loadings in the Middle East by port location (Mb/d)

Weekly average oil flows via Hormuz + unidentified exports from Gulf of Oman (Mb/d)

Iran's crude loadings by port (Mb/d)

If the formal signing of the US-Iran peace deal occurs on Friday, tanker throughput through the Hormuz chokepoint could surge as soon as next week, if not shortly after, as shipowners reposition tankers and energy flows begin normalizing through the world's most important maritime chokepoint. However, energy flow normalization will take many months. 

Professional subscribers can read much more on the energy shock and Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 13:40

The $300 Billion Wager: Inside The Private Fund At The Center Of The U.S.-Iran Framework

A proposed $300 billion investment fund has emerged as one of the most consequential-and politically explosive-features of the U.S.-Iran framework agreement, turning what began as a war-ending diplomatic effort into a test of whether private capital can be used as a substitute for reparations, sanctions relief and state-to-state reconstruction aid. This, of course, is the part where we 'give' Iran $300 billion - though what it actually is and does hasn't been disclosed until now. This isn't unfrozen Iranian assets, and is separate from parallel talks over sanctions relief. Read on and decide for yourself whether Reuters is simply polishing a turd. 

An Iranian woman waves a national flag at Valiasr Square in Tehran. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

According to Reuters, the fund is not designed as a direct U.S. payment to Tehran, nor as a government-backed reparations program. It is described instead as a private investment vehicle intended to unlock large-scale capital for Iran once a final U.S.-Iran deal is signed. More than half of the $300 billion has already been committed, a source with direct knowledge of the arrangement told Reuters, with pledged financing spanning companies and investors from the United States, Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa.

The fund, reportedly to be called the Reconstruction and Development Fund, would target sectors central to Iran’s postwar recovery and long-term economic reintegration: energy, logistics, manufacturing, transport and broader infrastructure. It would not become operational immediately. Instead, the current memorandum of understanding is expected to structure a 60-day negotiating period during which fund administrators, Iranian officials and prospective investors would scope projects and establish terms.

That timing is crucial. The fund is not the deal itself. It is a prize held behind a series of political, nuclear and security conditions.

From reparations demand to investment vehicle

The financial mechanism appears to have emerged from a failed demand for compensation. Reuters reported that Tehran initially sought $400 billion from Washington for war damages, a request the United States rejected. The compromise was to shift the discussion away from U.S.-paid reparations and toward a private investment structure that could be sold differently to each side.

For Iran, the fund offers a path to reconstruction and economic revival after years of sanctions and months of war. For Washington, it creates a performance-based incentive without requiring Congress or U.S. taxpayers to finance Iran’s recovery. For Gulf states and multinational firms, it could create controlled access to one of the Middle East’s largest and most underdeveloped markets.

That distinction-investment, not indemnity-is the political heart of the arrangement. The White House can argue that Iran is not being handed American money. Tehran can argue that it extracted a massive reconstruction pathway from a conflict it says it survived. Investors can argue that they are not subsidizing Iran’s state but positioning themselves for a potential opening of a long-isolated economy.

But that structure also creates ambiguity. A private fund of this size cannot function in a vacuum. It would depend on sanctions relief, banking access, legal clarity, security guarantees and a durable political settlement. Without those, pledged capital remains theoretical.

The broader deal: Hormuz, sanctions and the nuclear file

The fund sits inside a wider U.S.-Iran framework designed to end the war that began after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. The framework is intended to halt the U.S. blockade of Iran, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin a new negotiating track on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief and regional security.

The Strait of Hormuz is central to the urgency. Before the conflict, the waterway handled a major share of global oil and gas shipments. Its closure and militarization created pressure on energy markets, shipping, insurers and governments dependent on Gulf exports. Reopening the strait is therefore not simply a diplomatic concession; it is a global economic priority.

U.S. officials expect traffic through Hormuz to rise gradually, not instantly - so shipping lanes, insurance markets, naval risk, mines, damaged infrastructure and commercial confidence cannot be restored by proclamation. Even if the formal agreement is signed, physical normalization may lag diplomatic announcements.

What Iran must give up

The proposed fund is conditional. Vice President JD Vance has publicly framed the arrangement as a reward Iran could access only if it meets strict obligations. Those obligations include dismantling or permanently constraining its nuclear weapons pathway, eliminating its stockpile of enriched material and accepting a stringent inspection and enforcement regime.

That framing is intended to answer critics who argue that the deal rewards Tehran for escalation. The administration’s argument is that Iran receives nothing meaningful merely for signing. Instead, the framework establishes a staged bargain: Iran opens Hormuz, accepts nuclear limits and permits verification; in return, it can receive sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and eventually participation in a massive private reconstruction fund.

The distinction between the $300 billion fund and frozen Iranian assets is important. Reuters reports that the fund is separate from parallel talks over sanctions relief and the release of Iranian sovereign assets held abroad. Those are different mechanisms with different timelines. Frozen funds involve Iran’s own oil revenues and reserves trapped in foreign banking systems. The $300 billion fund, by contrast, is described as new private investment into Iran.

That separation may be legally and politically useful, but it does not eliminate the core problem: investors will not move at scale unless they believe sanctions relief is real, durable and enforceable.

Why Iran is attractive-and why it has been untouchable

On paper, Iran is exactly the kind of market global capital would normally chase. It has one of the world’s largest combined oil and gas resource bases, a population of more than 92 million, a relatively educated workforce, a diversified industrial base and major needs in refining, petrochemicals, transport, aviation, steel, ports, power and logistics.

But for four decades, Iran has been largely frozen out of global capital markets. U.S. sanctions, secondary sanctions risk, compliance uncertainty and fear of future penalties have kept most major Western banks and corporations away. Even after the 2015 nuclear deal, many large financial institutions remained reluctant to re-enter Iran because they feared violating remaining restrictions or being punished later if U.S. policy changed.

That history is a warning. A commitment to invest is not the same as an executed project. A memorandum of understanding is not the same as bankable legal certainty. And a fund administrator cannot neutralize the risk that a future U.S. administration-or even the current one-could reverse course.

According to Reuters, the deal’s “cash sweeteners” should be treated cautiously. The central contradiction is simple: Iran wants proof of economic benefit before making irreversible concessions, while Washington wants Iranian compliance before allowing major financial benefits. That sequencing problem has bedeviled U.S.-Iran diplomacy for years.

Israel and the regional security dilemma

Israel’s position remains one of the biggest uncertainties. Reuters has reported that Israel is not a party to the U.S.-Iran memorandum and that Israeli officials have insisted they retain freedom of action against threats. Iran, meanwhile, has linked regional calm to Israeli conduct in Lebanon and beyond.

This creates a fragile triangle. The U.S. may be able to negotiate with Iran over Hormuz and nuclear inspections, but it cannot automatically bind Israel to every term Tehran wants. If Israel continues operations in Lebanon or strikes Iranian-linked targets, Tehran may claim the broader bargain has been violated. If Iran or its allies resume attacks, Israel may escalate. Either path could undermine investor confidence before the fund is even created.

That is why the $300 billion headline may obscure the more important question: can the security architecture hold long enough for any money to matter?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 11:05

Cushing Stocks Crash To 'Tank Bottoms', Seasonally Lowest Since 2005; SPR Sees Another Huge Drain

Oil prices have tumbled in recent days as optimism grew there would be a lasting Middle East peace agreement, which would mean supplies would be back on track - but investors are taking a breather today with prices marginally higher this morning, rising off three month lows (and the 200DMA) after Trump threatened to 'start bombing again' if he doesn't like the deal (or how Iran is behaving). Solid US macro data also helped lift oil prices (demand).

"The collapse in oil has changed the tone of global markets, supporting bonds (prices) and reducing near-term inflation pressure," noted Tickmill market strategist Patrick Munnelly.

Oil industry experts and shipping companies have warned that it will take time to restore normal operations after the waterway's near shutdown.

Crude inventories held by OECD member countries fell in May to the lowest level since 1990 as governments drew down stocks to offset the blockage of Gulf crude shipments during the Middle East war, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday.

The drawdown since the start of the conflict has reached 163 million barrels in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development club of wealthy countries, the IEA said in its monthly report.

And so, all eyes on the official situation in the US today for any signs of those drawdowns slowing (API's report suggest not).

API

• Crude -8.33mm

• Cushing -1.5mm

• Gasoline +2.47mm

• Distillates -461k

DOE

• Crude -8.263mm (-3.5mm exp, -5.2mm whisp)

• Cushing -1.606mm

• Gasoline -906k

• Distillates +951k

Crude inventories fell for the 8th straight week (-8.3mm) and Cushing saw another major drop in stocks. Products were mixed...

Source: Bloomberg

At Cushing, Oklahoma, stockpiles declined for the eighth straight week, taking inventories to just above 20 million barrels. That’s the lowest inventories have been at the storage hub since October 2014, and takes us to what are considered essentially 'tank-bottoms', the point at which the hub is unable to fully operate. 

This is the lowest level for Cushing stocks for this time of year since 2005...

Source: Bloomberg

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw yet another massive drawdown (8.9mm barrels), down almost 75mm barrels since the war started...

Source: Bloomberg

The US rig count continues to rise along with US Crude Production (now back near record highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $76.50 ahead of the official data and rallied uyp to $77 on the report...

Finally, we note that The International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that the conflict is causing a bigger hit to demand than previously thought, while adding in its first look at next year’s balances that it expects a renewed glut.

Crude prices are down by almost 40% from their peak during the conflict. Producers, shippers and traders are now assessing whether the interim peace agreement will prove to be durable, and how long it will take for vessel transits of the Hormuz chokepoint to be revived in earnest. Sticking points remain, including opposition in Israel, which launched the war with the US in late February.

But the scale of the price drop is already quashing concerns about a further energy-induced inflationary spike.

“This decline is not merely a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium; it is a recalibration of the global oil balance for the months ahead,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at brokerage PVM.

“With oil prices tumbling, inflation expectations are likely to decline, while increases in consumer and producer prices should moderate.”

In addition to the extra supply, the selling pressure that has hit oil markets has been compounded by a clutch of factors.

Technical traders have added to bearish wagers but today's rebound comes right as Brent (briefly) dropped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since February.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:41

Ease In Our Time

By Micael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday saw the BOJ hike rates to 1%, the highest level since 1995, and the RBA hold at 4.35%, with some chatter of the next move being down, not up, despite inflation running way above 2%. Today it’s the turn of new Fed Chair Warsh who, like the other central banks, has to deal with a geopolitical backdrop which may or may not allow for any monetary policy easing.

There, the text of the 14-point US-Iran MoU has been leaked ahead of its Swiss signing ceremony on Friday: ironically, it says “Ease in our time.” It allows Iran to immediately sell oil again, including the waiver of all banking and transport sanctions (though US legislation may prove an obstacle re: IRGC terror designation). It also includes the private sector $300bn investment fund for Iran, which Reuters claims has already been half committed.

What does this imply? It’s either a giant TACO that markets look past the full implications of to embrace; or a can-kick until the midterms (after which what?); or the Middle Eastern dish maqluba --not muqlaba (‘confrontation’)-- layers of rice, veggies, and meat prepared one way up, then flipped when served. In other words, a behind-the-scenes-and-rhetoric normalisation from Iran. Ultimately, the proof of that dish is in the eating, and there are still many points to choke on.

NBC reports Iran has continued to fire multiple drones toward ships in Hormuz since the MoU was agreed, with the US shooting them down. The US Navy underlines the Strait still holds “substantial” risk. Insurers therefore remain wary, and as noted yesterday, maritime traffic is more likely to flood out than back in ahead.

Iran is demanding an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, which Israel states it will not and just struck Hezbollah again, with Iran now threatening to respond if Israel continues. Trump yesterday suggested Syria, with a history of looking at Lebanon as its own, should take care of Hezbollah (which the Lebanese government wants to disarm, but is unable to), not Israel. Given Syrian president Al-Sharaa’s Al Qaeda background and links to Turkey, with its history of looking at Syria as part of the Ottoman Empire, this does not seem the panacea some might hope for.

The MoU text is vague on uranium: it “will be adequately addressed in a final agreement.” Again, is it maqluba (a deal, flipping the rice) or muqlaba (no deal, flipping the peace)? China is warning the next phase of US-Iran talks will be “more difficult,” which is very clear.

The US is also weighing boosting ties with the Palestinian Authority as it seeks to advance its Gaza Board of Peace and an expanded Abraham Accords, while Israeli PM Netanyahu is said to be dropping election campaign posters showing him alongside Trump, as his opponents are all as hawkish as him re: Hezbollah and Iran, if not on the Palestinian issue.

In short, there are so many layers of rice, veggies, and meat here that’s not clear if anyone can flip the dish without spilling the food: and that’s just the Middle East, which is a current pivot point within a larger global negotiation.

At the G7, Trump promised to support Ukraine and sanction Russia – if Europe helps secure Hormuz. First, with minesweepers… but then with military patrols that offer GCC states a layer of protection (alongside Ukrainian anti-drone tech) should war with Iran restart after the US mid-term elections? Bloomberg reports Europeans are wary of committing naval power quickly. So are South Korea and Japan – but they likely all have a role to play.

Last week, Trump invoked the 1950 Defence Production Act regarding munitions, citing that “conditions exist which may pose a direct threat to the national defence or its preparedness programs," due to "limited production capacity, fragile supply chains, long-lead dependencies, and related production bottlenecks." What does he need this for if we are all friends now?

Elsewhere, the US is suggesting a ‘trusted partner’ AI scheme for its allies, extending what is currently US-only technology, a significant carrot. The European Parliament cleared the way for the EU-US trade deal - and Brussels is gearing up for a trade war with Beijing. Indeed, even as European discourse focuses on the US, it’s not hard to see the contrasting contours of US-EU cooperation in the Middle East and against China. Will it be transatlantic maqluba or muqlaba?

The US is also reaching out to Kazakhstan, offering to build local telecoms infrastructure. Central Asia looks increasingly contested space between Russia, the US, and China. And can Trump rebuild bridges with Indian PM Modi at the G7?

So much is in flux beyond oil, now back below $80 in time for the mid-terms. On which note, yes, ‘markets were right’ there – but to think it was market forces that kept market pricing of oil lower than feared until now is naïve: it was aggressive economic statecraft. If we see more Middle East war ahead, much more statecraft will be required.  

On that broader flux, that the FBI just arrested five people for an alleged plot to attack Trump’s White House lawn 80th birthday UFC event with explosives-laden drones and guns speaks to the zeitgeist.

So does the Wall Street Journal reporting that ‘A $40m Gold Heist Risks Exposing CIA’s Top-Secret Spy Programs’; as the Financial Times notes central banks are repatriating gold as global insecurity rises rather than storing bullion in other countries; and the Nikkei Asia shares that central banks expect their gold reserves to continue to rise as de-dollarization continues, with 84% of related survey respondents seeing such holdings increasing in the next five years.

And against that backdrop, the FT also notes that ‘The world is more dangerous. Why is risk cheaper?’, underlining that capital is piling into insurance because of high returns and low volatility (against our current backdrop!) which leaves some worried about mispricing.

Traditionally, they don’t have to worry because central banks are there to save the day. But right now, those knights in shining armour have a lot of other things to worry about: like swords and armour. Does that still allow them to just “ease in our time”?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:20

"Late Spring Buyer Rush": US Pending Home Sales Just Surged By The Most In Almost 2 Years

Pending home sales in the US were expected to rise for the fourth straight month in May and they did with a huge beat (+3.8% MoM vs +0.9% MoM exp - above the highest analysts estimate), which was slightly offset by a downward revision for April (from +1.4% to +0.3%).

That is the best monthly improvement in pending home sales since Sept 2024 and that lifted sales by just over 2% YoY.

“A late spring buyer rush - even with mortgage rates not budging - is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a release.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at its highest since Nov 2025, after bouncing back from record lows in January...

There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (but of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)...

Pending sales climbed in all US regions, with the Northeast leading with an 8.7% increase over the month. Yun noted the Northeast is picking up following a period of low inventory and rising home prices.

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 10:07

DOJ Sues New York Health Officials Over Alleged Fraud In Medicaid Homecare Program

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) on June 16 sued New York health officials and a Georgia-based company over an alleged fraud scheme involving the state’s $10 billion Medicaid homecare program.

The lawsuit names state Health Commissioner James McDonald, state Medicaid Director Amir Bassiri, and financial management services company Public Partnerships LLC as defendants.

In its lawsuit, the DOJ asked the court to issue an injunction barring the defendants from making “false statements and misrepresentations” about New York’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistant Program (CDPAP) and prevent what it called the company’s “siphoning of funds from the federal coffers.”

“New York’s failure to police a favored vendor that unlawfully siphoned millions of dollars of Medicaid funding is egregious and betrays the public trust,” Assistant Attorney General Brett Shumate of the DOJ’s Civil Division said in a statement.

CDPAP is one of New York’s largest health benefit programs. It provides home care through lay caregivers to Medicaid patients with disabilities or significant medical needs.

The lawsuit states that more than 250,000 patients and more than 300,000 caregivers participated in the program as of 2024. That same year, the New York Legislature passed a statute consolidating management of CDPAP from hundreds of existing fiscal intermediaries to a single fiscal intermediary.

The DOJ alleged that the New York Health Department awarded Public Partnerships the contract to manage CDPAP through a “sham bid process” in late 2024.

The Justice Department accused Bassiri of being part ​of an effort to disqualify other qualified bidders after he had “personally scored” Public Partnerships’ successful bid.

According to the complaint, Bassiri was part of last-minute email exchanges with other states, in which Health Department officials said they were “under some sort of ‘pressure from our Governor’s Office’” to see if other bidders were qualified.

The DOJ accused the state health department of enabling the company to generate “millions of dollars in excess revenues” from the program by “billing at hourly rates in excess of those anticipated by New York prior to the contract award.”

The department said that Public Partnerships’ self-dealing and New York’s failure to enforce the contract’s terms erased the cost savings the program’s transition was expected to deliver.

“New York’s backroom deal with PPL has cost taxpayers millions of dollars and cast countless Medicaid patients to the curb,” Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald for the DOJ’s National Fraud Enforcement Division said in the statement.

Public Partnerships has denied the allegations. The company said in a statement to multiple news outlets that it won the contract “through a transparent, competitive process.”

“We strongly disagree with the characterizations in the complaint and will respond fully through the appropriate legal process,” the company said.

In a statement, the New York Department of Health called the lawsuit baseless and lacking merit.

The department said the courts have confirmed that the process of hiring Public Partnerships “was accomplished through a fair and legally sound competitive bidding process.”

It added: “We look forward to the day where these disingenuous attacks can stop and our partners in Washington can look to New York as a model for how to improve to control costs and root out abuses while preserving and improving quality of care.”

A spokesperson for New York Gov. Kathy ​Hochul said, “New York’s decision to move to a single fiscal intermediary has already saved taxpayers more than $1 billion while deterring ‌fraud, ⁠waste and abuse.”

Hochul is not a defendant and was not accused of wrongdoing.

The Epoch Times reached out to both McDonald and Bassiri for comment but did not receive a response by publication time.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:55

No FISA Without SAVE Act: Trump Calls Out 'Dumocrat' Double-Cross," Keeps Pulte As Acting DNI

Just two years after Donald Trump urged Congress to kill Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act while on the campaign trail, he's now livid that Democrats won't help Republicans pass it.

Trump took to Truth Social early Wednesday morning with a lengthy post accusing 'Dumocrats' of breaking a bipartisan deal on FISA reauthorization - and announced a series of moves that throw a wrench into Senate plans for both intelligence leadership and surveillance powers.

According to Trump, Republicans played themselves - after agreeing with Democrats to accelerate the removal of Acting DNI William Pulte (by fast-tracking Jay Clayton’s confirmation) in exchange for Democratic support on renewing FISA Section 702 surveillance powers. Now, however Democrats are threatening to vote against FISA anyway. 

“The Republicans wound up having fulfilled their commitment, but Dumocrats broke the Deal.”

As a result, Trump said he is canceling today’s Senate hearing for Jay Clayton as permanent DNI. He will not move Clayton out of his current role as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York until Jamie McDonald (a Sullivan & Cromwell partner and Trump’s former personal lawyer, recently nominated to replace him at SDNY) is confirmed - including clearing the “blue slip” process.

In the meantime, Bill Pulte will remain as Acting Director of National Intelligence - who Trump picked to replace Tulsi Gabbard after she said in May she was leaving the administration in June to spend time with her husband following his cancer diagnosis. Pulte has been a controversial pick over his lack of intelligence experience - which led to Trump nominating U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton to be the next DNI.

Southern District of New York U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton at Johnson Houses on Dec. 17, 2025. USAO Southern District of New York/Screenshot via The Epoch Times

Trump explicitly linked his approval of FISA renewal to passage of the SAVE America Act - his priority legislation requiring photo ID, proof of citizenship for voter registration, and strict limits on mail-in ballots.

“Therefore, to add a slight bit of intrigue but, for the Good of the Nation, and the People of our Country, I will not approve FISA without THE SAVE AMERICA ACT going along with it. Not complicated, actually, the Republicans fell into a trap.”

The SAVE America Act - which requires Americans to show proof of citizenship to register to vote and a valid ID to cast a ballot, has stalled in the Senate after the House passed the legislation in February. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 09:20

"Radical Earnings Cut": JPMorgan Sounds Alarm After BMW's Forecast Shock

BMW shares cratered in Germany after the automaker warned investors it would slash its 2026 margin guidance to as low as 1%, down from a prior estimate of as high as 6%, amid weakening demand in China, Middle East-related pressures, rising energy costs, and a deteriorating consumer backdrop hitting sales and profitability.

BMW now expects its pretax profit to fall sharply this year, versus a prior expectation of a moderate decline, and for deliveries in the auto segment to slide, compared with a previous expectation of flat performance.

Here's the new forecast for the year:

• Sees automotive Ebit margin 1% to 3%, saw 4% to 6%, estimate 4.9% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees Automotive return on capital employed 1% to 5%, saw 6% to 10%

JPMorgan analyst Jose Asumendi called the downgrade a major "wake-up call for the auto industry" and warned that the German luxury automaker must address its compact-segment product strategy in China, where European premium automakers have been priced out of the market.

Asumendi called the downgrade a "radical earnings cut" but noted that BMW is generally executing well. He believes the automaker will likely take one-time charges to downsize its global production footprint, with a particular focus on Europe.

Here is Barclays analyst Christophe Boulanger's first take on BMW's big profit warning:

BMW's profit warning signals a sharp cyclical and regional deterioration, with China and macro/geopolitical factors driving a reset in expectations. While management is addressing costs, near-term fundamentals look weak, with recovery deferred to subsequent years. We reiterate our UW rating.

FY26 outlook sharply downgraded amid China weakness, macro headwinds and restructuring

BMW issued a material profit warning for FY26 on the evening of 16 June, reflecting a sharp deterioration in China and a more challenging macro backdrop (two-thirds of the profit warning). The downgrade is broad-based across volumes, margins, cash generation, and returns, with further measures to adjust the cost base, including a restructuring provision (one-third of the profit warning). This one-off item is said to amortise within two years and not be cash effective in 2026 (indicating a combination of restructuring provisions and impairments). The company will disclose further information at its capital market day in September.

Overall/China market development has been weaker than expected by management at the start of the year. In December 2025, CPCA (Chinese Passenger Car Association) expected flat Chinese passenger car sales in 2026, but in May cut its estimate to -7.6%, then -11%, and to -14.1% on 16 June, versus YTD May actuals of -19.4% for the total market.

New FY26 guidance: Auto deliveries to decline 1-5% (from flat in previous guidance), Auto EBIT margin to range between 1-3% (from 4-6% in previous guidance and 5.3% FY 25), a >15% decline in group PBT (from a 10-15% decline in previous guidance) and FCF to >€2.5bn (from >€4.5bn and €3.24bn in FY25).

Read-across to other OEMs: We view Mercedes as the major OEM on the cross-read (c.50-60% China EBIT exposure vs BMW c.50%). VW is much less exposed at c.20%. We see no meaningful read-across for STLA, RNO.

As stated in our Euroean IG Best Ideas report, 17 June, our Underweight rating on BMW (and Mercedes) is driven by tight valuations versus the peer group (as stated in recent our recent report that highlighted downside risk) and weak FY26 guidance and fundamental outlook.

Shares of BMW in Germany tumbled as much as 12%, the biggest intraday decline in almost two years. For the year, shares are down around 32%.

Shares are trading at Covid lows ...

Citigroup analyst Harald Hendriks explained to clients why his team remains "Neutral" rated on BMW shares:

Conclusion — Yesterday's announcement confirms investor concerns over the sustainability of BMW's China business. While the profit warning helps bring down earnings expectations, the real question is what other way can BMW reliably boost EPS growth and finally build a "momentum" equity narrative? With no obvious positive equity narrative, with FY26E earnings still under downward pressure, with a structural thematic negative industry trend, with continued industry-punishing EU regulations, and with a limited number of investors in European (German) value names, we think BMW's undervaluation may persist. Given we see no new positive catalysts at BMW, we maintain our Neutral rating.

As for the STXE 600 Auto & Parts Index (which includes names such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Porsche, Ferrari, Renault, Continental, Michelin, Valeo, and others), Europe's auto industry has drifted back to 2020 levels.

Europe's left-wing political elites may want to rethink their strategy of allowing low-cost Chinese EVs to flood the continent before the region's industrial base suffers lasting damage. BMW's warning suggests the turmoil is industry-wide and likely spread across the broader European manufacturing complex. Also, climate policies on the struggling continent have been an utter disaster.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:45

Despite Slumping Sentiment, US Retail Sales See Strongest Annual Rise Since Jan 2023

Despite record low consumer sentiment and declining real wages, BofA's omniscient analysts forecast a blockbuster beat for US Retail Sales for both headline, core, and control group cohorts.

Retail sales should be a blowout beat, according to BofA's real-time card data pic.twitter.com/NZmfqWzVNr

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026

And they were right with the headline retail sales rising 0.9% MoM in May (+0.6% MoM exp) driving YoY sales up a stunning 6.9% - the best since Jan 2023

Electronics and Food Services saw sales decline very modestly in May while Gasoline Stations, Nonstore Retailers, and Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers saw the biggest rise...

Core (Ex-Autos and Ex-Autos and Gas) also strongly beat expectations (+0.8% MoM vs +0.6% MoM exp and +0.5% vs +0.3% MoM exp respectively.

Most notably, the 'Control Group' which feeds directly into the GDP caluclation rose 0.7% MoM (better than the 0.4% exp)...

Of course this is all nominal-based.

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) continue to rebound from a negative print in December...

Spending does seem to continue improving despite the cataclysmic decline in confidence...

Nevertheless, back to where we started above and the disgruntled consumer. BofA notes that gas prices took another big leg up in May, rising by 7.0% m/m SA in the CPI report. As a result, the share of discretionary categories in the consumer wallet in May 2026 was lower than in May 2025 levels across all income cohorts.

This is noteworthy because this share has been trending up in recent years.

Lower-income HHs are feeling the pinch of the gas shock more: they’ve seen a larger increase in necessary spending, which has led to a widening of the “K” in discretionary outlays.

Will those alligator jaws begin to close now that gas prices are starting to tumble?

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/17/2026 - 08:37