The Vanishing American Dream: Why Young Adults Can't Afford Homes, Families, Or Stability

Authored by Lau Vegys via Doug Casey's International Man,

The American Dream has become prohibitively expensive, with home affordability at historic lows and the traditional middle-class lifestyle now out of reach for most ordinary people.

But no demographic has taken it more on the chin than young Americans.

You can see it in stark terms in this week’s chart below. Since the postwar era, the share of 30-year-olds in America with both a family and a home has plummeted—from about 52% in 1950 to just 13% in 2025. That’s a staggering 75% decline over 75 years.

Let that sink in. In 1950, more than half of 30-year-olds had achieved what most would consider the basic markers of adult stability: marriage and homeownership. Today, it’s barely one in eight.

If you look closer, the graph shows two distinct phases of decline. From 1950 to 1990, there was a steady but manageable erosion—the share of 30-year-olds with both a family and a home dropped from 52% to about 43% over those 40 years.

That represented the gradual social changes we’re all familiar with: more women entering the workforce, people marrying later, changing cultural attitudes toward marriage.

Then something dramatic happened around 2000. The decline went into freefall. Between 1990 and 2025, the rate collapsed from 43% to 13%—a 70% drop in just over three decades.

What explains it?

We could, of course, blame this on changing cultural preferences—young people choosing career over family, prioritizing experiences over stability. That’s certainly part of the story. Young people today do have very different priorities than those more than half a century ago.

But there’s another side to this: the economics of young adulthood have become impossible. Keep in mind, today’s families would need the combined income of three households just to match the home affordability levels of a single family in 1959.

The situation gets worse when you factor in the debt burden crushing young adults. The very institution supposedly preparing young people for economic success—college—has become a wealth destroyer. Average student debt more than doubled from $17,297 to $37,850 between 2006 and 2024 alone (with total outstanding student debt exploding from $500 billion to $1.8 trillion).

Think about the brutal math facing today’s 30-year-olds.

They graduate with an average of $38,000 in student debt—though plenty are actually walking away with $60,000, $80,000, or even six-figure debt loads. They need $130,000+ in annual income to afford the average home, and compete in a job market where wages haven’t kept pace with housing costs.

In other words, they’re entering their peak family-formation years already financially crippled.

No wonder marriage and homeownership rates have collapsed.

The cruel irony is that we—scratch that, America’s political class—has created a system where the very credentials supposedly required for middle-class success have priced young people out of middle-class life.

Editor’s Note: If you have young people in your life wondering what the future holds in this broken system, Doug Casey and Matt Smith’s “The Preparation” offers a radical break from the usual path.

Instead of piling on debt for credentials of questionable value, the book lays out a blueprint for building real competence and independence outside traditional institutions. For those willing to think differently about their future, it may be the most valuable roadmap available. Click here to learn more now.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 19:15

Israeli Knesset Advances Bill To Execute Palestinian Prisoners Who Killed Jews

In yet another development which will certainly complicate current Trump administration efforts to find peace in Gaza, the National Security Committee in the Israeli Knesset is advancing a bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinian prisoners detained for killing Israelis.

Killings which are deemed motivated by "racism or hostility to the public" or aimed at harming the "State of Israel" or seeking to thwart the "revival of the Jewish people" would be a capital offensive, according to the legislation. Interestingly, the wording highlights Jewish citizens of Israel are the priority - and not for example Christian, Muslim, or Druze citizens.

It has unleashed immediate controversy both within and outside of Israel. For starters, some Israeli officials as well as families of Oct.7 victims fear that this puts the remaining hostages in Gaza at immediate risk. Notably, the bill does not apply the opposite direction - that is, it would not apply to Israelis who kill Palestinians.

Illustrative image: EuroMedMonitor 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s coordinator for negotiations on the captives, Gal Hirsch, has gone on record as vehemently opposing the bill.

"It’s not for nothing that we are asking not to hold this discussion. I completely disagree with your assessment of the situation, Minister [Itamar] Ben Gvir," he said in a communication protesting the initiative. "Especially when we are engaged in a combined military and diplomatic effort to bring back the hostages, this discussion does not help us."

An initial Sunday Knesset committee vote was 4-1 in favor, while more of rounds of votes needed for the bill to become law, according to protocol. 

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has been leading the charge, resisting calls to postpone the vote due to the precariousness of the hostage situation. 

One Palestinian rights group had this to say:

The Israeli bill was denounced by the Palestinian Commission for Detainees’ Affairs and the Palestinian Prisoner Society as an "unprecedented savagery," warning that it would entrench what they described as "systematic crimes" against detainees through legislation.

Increasingly, there have been shootings and terroristic attacks by Palestinians in places like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, related to ongoing events in Gaza and the West Bank.

Harsh confines at Israeli prison where Palestinians are kept:

A video report aired by Israel’s Channel 13 shows Israeli soldiers and guards mocking Palestinian detainees held at the Ketziot Prison in the Negev desert. Recent figures from the Palestinian Prisoners’ Society state that at least 9,300 Palestinians are currently being held… pic.twitter.com/4CoemUDs8a

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) June 12, 2024

At times, Palestinian encounters with Jewish settlers in the West Bank has also resulted in shootings and killings. This legislation would have a further chilling effect on Palestinian villagers and farmers when settlers show up to take their land, given that if they fight back, they could be facing the death penalty. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 18:50

Obama Library Funds Are Secretly Flowing To Dark Money Networks

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJ Media,

Barack Obama’s long-promised presidential library is shaping up to be just as corrupt as his administration. You probably haven’t heard much about this in the media, but recent tax filings reveal that money donated to the Obama Foundation—supposedly earmarked for his sprawling “presidential center” in Chicago—is quietly being redirected to one of the left’s most notorious dark money groups: the Tides Foundation.

Obama Foundation via AP

The numbers tell the story. In 2022 and 2023, the Obama Foundation handed over $2 million to Tides, a group best known for serving as a clearinghouse for radical left-wing causes and for shielding donor identities. It should come as no surprise that George Soros heavily backs Tides, and Tides is directly tied to groups organizing anti-Israel protests. That includes demonstrations against the Jewish state in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 Hamas atrocities. In other words, donations made in the name of funding a presidential library are now helping bankroll organizations promoting antisemitic activism under the guise of social justice.

That's pretty on-brand for Barack Obama.

“The Tides Center played an administrative role in the program by processing grants while Cities United [a nonprofit] managed the application process,” the spokeswoman said in an email. Grants ranged from $15,000 to $30,000 each over the two summers.

Tides has also handled donations for Black Lives Matter Global Network Foundation, which sued the group in California Superior Court last year. It alleged “egregious mismanagement” of more than $33 million in its funds, according to court documents. That lawsuit is ongoing.

In addition to sending donations to Tides, the Obama Foundation has sent more than $3 million in 2022 and 2023 in grants to Gofundme.org for undisclosed “grassroots leaders to empower girls through education,” according to the group’s filings.

Meanwhile, the foundation admitted it has so far spent more than $615 million building the Obama Presidential Center, which is scheduled to open in spring 2026, according to its website.

The group, which received just $129,320 in donations in 2022, spent more than $27 million on salaries.

While community members struggle, insiders at the Obama Foundation are doing just fine. The foundation’s CEO, Emeka Jarrett, earned over $750,000 last year. The executive vice president, Rob Cohen, pocketed nearly $650,000, and also maintains ties to the Pritzker Realty Group. His connection to Penny Pritzker—sister to Governor J.B. Pritzker—only highlights the tangled web of Democratic powerbrokers who are thriving while the project supposedly dedicated to “the people” spirals out of control.

Meanwhile, the presidential center itself—originally sold to the public as a beacon of civic pride for Chicago’s South Side—has turned into a financial pit. Construction on the 20-acre site in Jackson Park began years ago, with a ballooning price tag that has already exceeded $615 million, far above the initial $500 million projection. The opening date has slipped again, now pushed to spring 2026. Local residents aren’t thrilled either. One lawyer described it bluntly as a “monstrosity,” pointing to rising costs, neighborhood headaches, and little actual benefit to the people forced to live around it.

This entire project reeks of the kind of carefully crafted con job only career political operators could pull off. Sell it as a beacon of unity, then funnel millions to radical, antisemitic causes, all while insiders pocket obscene salaries. It’s a true reflection of the same kind of corruption that plagued Obama’s presidency.

The Obama Presidential Center is a $615 million con, funneling money to radical causes and insider salaries. The mainstream media won’t cover this, but we will. Support our work by joining PJ Media VIP. Use promo code FIGHT for 60% off for ad-free access and sharp reporting. Support America First journalism.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 18:25

The Curious Tale Of Columbia Professor Daniel Richman

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Just The News is reporting that “Person 3” in the Comey indictment is not former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe but rather Columbia Professor Daniel Richman. According to the outlet, Richman is the former FBI employee in the indictment who allegedly leaked information about “Person 1,” who is believed to be Hillary Clinton. The report continues the long uncertainty over Richman’s role in these controversies. Richman has described himself as a friend, an FBI special employee, and the lawyer representing Comey at different times. He has also been a columnist and commentator, including for the site Lawfare run by Comey’s friend Ben Wittes. What Richman was doing at any given time remains strikingly uncertain. Professor Richman is not himself charged with any crime.

Richman’s fluid and changing roles are reminiscent of the debate over the role of Hunter Biden’s friend/lawyer/patron Kevin Morris. There was an evolution in the roles that Richman played over the years that left some of us confused as to his specific status at certain times.

At various points in the investigation, Richman alludes to being Comey’s lawyer, as well as a former aide and a friend. Comey used Richman as a conduit to the press and admitted that he was the means by which Comey leaked the contents of a memo that Comey improperly removed from the FBI after being fired.

The respected veteran investigative reporter Catherine Herridge reported on a June 2017 memorandum that documented a phone call with Richman and the so-called “Comey memos,” which detailed his conversations with President Trump.

According to sources, five days earlier, on June 8, 2017, Comey “asked Professor Richman to disclose the content of at least one of those memoranda to the press…”

In interviews,  sources said that Richman was dismissive over the violation of federal rules stating  “something to the effect of, ‘You do things by your rules’ and ‘I do things by my rules.’” Richman seemed to claim that he was serving as counsel and allegedly insisted that “there is a substantial extent to which I would raise attorney-client issues.” The suggestion was that, after leaving his position as a Justice Department adviser to Comey, he may have assumed the role as private counsel to Comey.

Richman admitted to media contacts but reportedly said that he did not think that he confirmed classified material from Comey to New York Times reporter Michael Schmidt.

Comey designated Richman as a Special Government Employee (SGE) at the FBI and subsequently utilized him as a conduit to the media. He gave him access to top-secret information, and Richman seems to have floated between Comey and other offices, such as the FBI’s General Counsel’s office.

The FBI said that “Comey instructed the FBI to hire Richman as a Special Government Employee” in 2015 and “to grant him a Top Secret clearance with access to Sensitive Compartmented Information.” It also said its investigation “revealed Comey also hired Richman, so Comey could discuss sensitive matters, including classified information, with someone outside of the FBI’s regular leadership. Comey also used Richman as a liaison to the media.”

Comey’s use of Richman shows how obsessed he was with his image and framing news stories about his tenure as director. Richman would serve as both an unnamed source and a named source in articles.

Richman admitted to agents that he routinely communicated on behalf of Comey with Times reporter Michael Schmidt, who published some of the non-public information that was the subject of past investigations.

According to FBI memos, Richman explained that his role was “to correct stories critical of Comey, the FBI and to shape future press coverage” outside the bureau’s official press office.

The different roles eventually seemed to cause Richman to resign. He sent an email to FBI officials in early February 2017  saying that “I am resigning my SGE status, and will thus not, as of today, be formally working for the Bureau in the immediate future.” He added that “my SGE status is limiting what I can do in my extracurricular life.”

Richman later joined Wittes, who has described himself as a friend of Comey as well as figures like Peter Strzok, at Lawfare. With Wittes, Richman has written highly critical columns of the Trump Administration.

Comey admitted to being a leaker through Richman. He was accused of being a leaker in other stories through other individuals. Andrew McCabe said that he leaked information on behalf of Comey. Likewise, an FBI memo said that a prior investigation “revealed [FBI General Counsel James] Baker to be one of the two sources” in a leak and “revealed Baker disclosed USG classified information to the NYT under the belief he was ultimately instructed and authorized to do so by then FBI Director James Comey.”

Just in the News reported that a “newly-unredacted portion [of a report] added that ‘Baker indicated FBI chief of staff James Rybicki instructed him (Baker) to disclose the information to the NYT, and Baker understood Rybicki was conveying this instruction and authorization from Comey.’”

The question is what Richman was at any given time in this scandal. Ethics rules tend to reinforce clear lines in the roles played by lawyers. Richman has been described as a “friend” by Comey, but Richman has suggested that he was at times serving as his personal lawyer. During his time as an SGE, Richman also seemed to shift in his focus. Richman’s first term as an SGE ended in 2016 and then Comey brought him back to work as a “consultant” for the FBI’s Office of General Counsel. A good portion of his portfolio at times seemed to be running interference for Comey with the media and protecting his image in the press.

Richman has not been charged with any crime or accused of any ethics violation in any of these dealings or positions. Some of us, however, are concerned by the fluidity of these roles over the years as government employee, private counsel, and friend.

Comey appeared to select Richman in part for his loyalty and Richman has continued to defend Comey. Now, Richman has a new role as the main witness in a criminal prosecution against Comey. It may be the only time in this scandal that his role as been singular and clear.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 17:40

Jimmy Kimmel's Audience Numbers Implode After Brief Spike

Progressive late-night television is dying.  The signals could not be more clear with Stephen Colbert's cancellation due to $40 million losses every year on productions costs.  If Colbert is failing, then nearly all late night shows a failing.  Many analysts have been speculating that Jimmy Kimmel was next on the chopping block.

During the second quarter, Jimmy Kimmel Live! averaged 1.77 million total viewers. That’s down quite a bit from 2015, when Colbert joined the late-night lineup and Nielsen says Kimmel averaged 2.4 million total viewers.  The leftist comedian has become infamous in the past five years for his political hot takes and overt hatred of conservatives, just as the majority of late night hosts have gravitated to propaganda rather than entertainment.  This has not helped their audience ratings.

Then, Kimmel threw himself into the middle of the public turmoil over the Charlie Kirk assassination.  His ABC "cancellation" was short lived and the show was back in a week.  Broadcast affiliates Sinclair and Nexstar decided to bring Kimmel back and his return garnered 6.5 million viewers.  Democrats cheered as if they had just won a political victory, but reality is not kind to the delusional.

In recent broadcasts, "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" averaged 2.3 million total viewers - A staggering 64% drop from the 6.5 million who tuned in for the much-hyped return.  Kimmel shed even more viewers in the advertiser-coveted demographic of adults aged 25-54, with Thursday’s episode hemorrhaging 73% of viewers from the critical category.  

It takes more than political controversy to save a dying show led by an unfunny comedian.  ABC lost a perfect opportunity to get rid of a dud show and they blew it.    

With disinformation talking points from social media in hand Kimmel attempted to spread the false claim that the shooting suspect, Tyler Robinson, was MAGA:

"We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it.”  

This was part of a larger spin campaign by democrats and leftist groups to deflect blame (as they always do).  The effort to lie to the public and paint Robinson as "right wing" was desperate and rabid.  To this day, a large percentage of Democrats wrongly assume that Robinson, a gay man with a trans furry boyfriend and an affinity for Antifa slogans, is MAGA.  Their trusted gatekeepers told them he is.

As more and more information was released to the public is became clear that militant woke rhetoric, incessantly repeated by Democrat politicians and late night talk show hosts over the past several years, was to blame for Charlie Kirk's murder.  The post-shooting celebration by millions of leftists across the country left no doubt who they are as a movement and what they are willing to do to get the power they want.    

Democrats complained that Kimmel's show being dropped was the same "cancel culture" that conservatives criticized the political left of using.  The difference, though, is that conservatives were being cancelled for telling the truth.  They are being "cancelled" for telling lies celebrating murder.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 17:20

Exposed: The Top 5 Myths Of Modern Finance

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

In today’s financial system, what many people take for granted as foundational truths are actually deeply flawed assumptions or outright deceptions.

Below is a breakdown of commonly misunderstood financial concepts—reframed to reflect a more accurate interpretation of how the system really works.

Myth #1: “Risk-Free” Returns

For decades, US government bonds were treated as the ultimate safe haven—where investors could stash cash with the promise of stability and zero risk.

That all changed in 2022, in 2022, the worst year for Treasuries in American history. The benchmark 10-year Treasury dropped nearly 18%, while the 30-year collapsed over 39%. Many bonds fared even worse.

Even stretching back 250 years, you won’t find a more devastating year for the so-called “risk-free asset” that underpins the global bond market.

That should have permanently buried the myth that Treasuries are risk-free. Yet many individuals—and nearly every major financial institution—still thoughtlessly cling to this belief.

Moreover, with the real rate of currency debasement far outpacing nominal interest rates, Treasuries have become a losing proposition. They no longer offer a “risk-free return.” What they deliver instead is “return-free risk.”

Myth #2: The Lender of Last Resort and Fictional Reserve Banking

The idea that central banks act as a backstop during crises—a “lender of last resort”—sounds noble.

In times of financial turmoil, they step in to inject liquidity and restore order. The narrative is that central banks prevent economic collapse by offering emergency funding when private lenders won’t. It’s a safety net, a stabilizer, a guardian of last resort.

However, when central banks create money out of thin air to rescue failing institutions, it’s really just legalized counterfeiting.

And let’s be clear: the money you think you have in the bank? It’s not actually there.

Most banks would collapse if even a tiny portion of depositors tried to withdraw their funds. That’s because of fractional reserve banking—a practice that would be considered outright fraud in any other industry.

Imagine a car dealership or jewelry store running on a fractional reserve model—creating more claims for cars or gold necklaces than they physically have. It’d be laughed off as a Ponzi Scheme. Yet, it’s not only legal in banking—it’s the standard.

The only reason it seems to work is because banks have the Federal Reserve as a backstop, the “lender of last resort.” When trouble hits, the Fed steps in to bail them out by creating more currency units out of thin air.

No such lifeline exists for car dealers or jewelers—because no one can create new cars or necklaces out of thin air to make things whole.

That’s why fractional reserve banking is really fictional reserve banking. The reserves don’t exist in any meaningful way—the system runs on smoke, mirrors, and a lot of blind trust. The illusion only holds because central banks stand ready with the money printer to bail it out when cracks appear.

So here’s the plain-English translation: “Lender of last resort” means legalized counterfeiting to backstop a legalized Ponzi Scheme.

Myth #3: Policymakers Are Just Central Planners in Disguise

We often hear about “policymakers” adjusting economic levers to keep things stable. But this is really central planning by another name—more in line with top-down command economies than the free markets we’re told we live in.

Myth #4: Many Elites Don’t Create Wealth

In many cases, those referred to as “elites” are not wealth creators but wealth extractors—parasites living off the productivity of others through favorable regulations, insider deals, seigniorage, cronyism, and bailouts. They are more accurately called parasites.

Myth #5: The Federal Reserve is a Free Market Institution

In The Communist Manifesto, Marx’s fifth plank calls for the “centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.” That’s a spot-on description of the Federal Reserve and other central banks.

In reality, the Fed is nothing more than a politburo of bureaucrats attempting to centrally plan the economy by tinkering with the money and interest rates—the most important prices in all of capitalism.

Even if we presume the Fed has benign intentions—which it doesn’t—central planning is an impossible task, and failure is inevitable.

That’s why the Fed is in a mission-impossible situation—much like it was an impossible task for the Soviets to centrally plan their economy.

The best thing you can do is recognize that the Fed can’t save the day any more than the State Planning Committee of the USSR could—and get positioned accordingly.

Conclusion

Many of the foundational beliefs propping up the modern financial system are riddled with contradictions, euphemisms, and carefully crafted illusions.

Scratch just beneath the surface, and it becomes clear: this isn’t a system rooted in free markets—it’s one driven by deception, control, and theft.

Seeing through the lies is no longer optional—it’s essential.

Because the conditions are in place for a major monetary reset… and soon. If history is any guide, a significant devaluation of the US dollar isn’t just possible—it’s all but guaranteed.

That’s why I’ve just released a critical new report revealing the top three strategies to protect yourself and profit from what’s coming next. Click here to download it now—before the window slams shut.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 17:00

Not Only Tulsi: Three Members Of Congress Also Spied On In Quiet Skies Program

Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News,

Ahead of Tuesday hearings on the subject, the Senate’s Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC) obtained documents showing three members of Congress, all Republicans, were followed under the TSA’s just-discontinued Quiet Skies program, which became infamous last summer when whistleblowers revealed bomb-sniffing dogs and Air Marshals were assigned to follow former Hawaii Congresswoman and future National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard.

The members’ names have not yet been publicly released, but they were turned over to the Committee by the Department of Homeland Security, along with “TSA” notes explaining how they ended up on the list. Two of the three members made it onto the list before being elected, but as the Committee notes, “a cursory review would have revealed them to be a member of Congress, or a decorated U.S. veteran or service member.” The list below looks like four entries, but the second and third are the same member:

A wealth of other information — not just about Quiet Skies but other questionable TSA practices — has been produced to the Committee chaired by Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. Among the revelations:

• Documentation showing the TSA approved “enhanced screening” and watchlisting for individuals merely “suspected of traveling to the National Capital Region” in conjunction with January 6th, and who are “believed to pose an elevated risk” but for whom “there is a current lack of specific information relating to unlawful entry into the U.S. Capitol”;

• At least 24 people were put into the program for being associated with a group the protested mask mandates, and 12 were placed on a watch list for removing their masks in-flight. The latter act was described in one memo as being “an act of extreme recklessness in carrying out an act that represents a threat to the life of passengers and crew”;

• Confirmation that Gabbard was indeed surveilled for eight flights last summer, as UncoverDC and Racket reported. The ostensible justification? She was listed as a “possible affiliate” of a member of the Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB), which at last count contained over a million people. Internal correspondence also shows that after the story was made public, “TSA is looking into the incident with regards to people with access to this information”;

• Confirmation that the TSA pulled a web screenshot of Gabbard’s Congressional bio and not an official Passport or other government photo, as would be standard;

• Confirmation that the TSA put Christine Crowder, wife of a Federal Air Marshal and upcoming witness Mark Crowder, under “Special Mission Coverage” due to “association of traveling on the same itinerary as a KST,” or Known or Suspected Terrorist. The TSA mistakenly believed Mrs. Crowder entered the Capitol on January 6th, and eventually conceded the episode was a case of “mistaken identity.”

Racket readers will recall a fiasco that spilled into public last August 4th, when UncoverDC (a site run by well-known online journalist Tracy Beanz) ran a story citing travel dates titled “Federal Air Marshal Whistleblowers Report Tulsi Gabbard Actively Under Surveillance via Quiet Skies Program.” When I reached out to Gabbard, she told me “The whistleblowers’ account matches my experience,” and told of a series of intrusive searches dating to July 23, 2024, just after she’d criticized eventual nominee Kamala Harris on The Ingraham Angle, saying she “does not have the strength to stand up to the Military-Industrial Complex.”

Despite reports containing on-the-record sources in UncoverDC and Racket, and a letter to Congress sent by the well-known firm Empower Oversight on behalf of “multiple Federal Air Marshal whistleblowers” complaining about the episode, only Fox, The Hill, and the Washington Examiner and Times among legacy outlets covered the story. The fact-checking site Snopes waited a month to declare it unconfirmed and in need of “more research.” Only after Donald Trump was re-elected and news broke that Gabbard was his likely choice for the DNI position did the mainstream press bound into action — not to question surveillance of a high-profile politician, but to raise questions about Gabbard’s character.

CNN, for instance, wrote “the episode has raised eyebrows among security officials, who point to Gabbard’s history of unusual relationships overseas.” The New York Times waited almost six months, until January of 2025, to say there was no indication Gabbard “did anything wrong” in her overseas trip, but the episode “raised questions about the extent to which Mr. Trump’s nominee to serve as the nation’s top intelligence official adequately weighed the implications of her foreign travels and associations.”

Quiet Skies became known to the public in 2018, when The Boston Globe exposed that the TSA was following 30 people a day (later reports put the number closer to 50), despite the program never once leading to an arrest or preventing a terrorist incident. The program was both intrusive and wasteful, to extreme degrees. Each “selectee” was followed by three (and now, we learn, possibly more) members of the Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), in addition to being subject to special searches and examination by bomb-sniffing dogs. A 2019 report of the Homeland Security Inspector General found an astonishing $394 million — nearly half the Air Marshals’ $803 million budget — could have been “put to better use.”

If you were chosen for Quiet Skies coverage, Marshals trained to prevent terrorists from rushing cockpits would instead be asked to try to listen to your in-flight conversations, register the type of smartphone you used, even mark down “what exact times you went to the bathroom, so they could figure out the frequency,” as formal Marshal Robert MacLean put it.

At the time, this was not a partisan issue. The Globe’s hometown Senator, Ed Markey, grilled then-TSA chief David Pekoskie about why his agency would “monitor Americans who aren’t suspected of any crime” and “does the TSA monitor whether Americans go to the bathroom during flights?”

Over the years, however, party interest in Quiet Skies became curiously divided. In 2023, then-Democratic Chair of the same Homeland Security Committee Gary Peters released a report showing a number of concerning details likely unknown to most Americans. For instance, “U.S. travelers may be screened for at least 22 different reasons” (likely 21, now that Quiet Skies has been eliminated). The Peters report however stressed the notion that “certain communities — Muslim, Arab, and South Asian Americans in particular — claim they have been unfairly targeted,” at a time when the program was targeting all sorts of people, including people protesting mask mandates.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration and DHS Chief Kristi Noem ended the program because “since its existence has failed to stop a single terrorist attack while costing US taxpayers $200 million a year,” citing also episodes and documents that “highlight the inconsistent application of Quiet Skies and watchlisting programs, circumventing security policies to benefit politically aligned friends and family at the expense of the American people.”

In 2023, William “Billy” Shaheen, husband of New Hampshire Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, also triggered a Quiet Skies rule by scheduling a flight with a “KST,” meaning a Known or Suspected Terrorist (reportedly immigration lawyer Celine Atallah). After two enhanced searches, Senator Shaheen contacted then-TSA administrator David Pekoske, after which Mr. Shaheen was excluded from Quiet Skies.

The TSA throughout the Gabbard affair maintained that entry into “Quiet Skies” only took place if a person was “matched to a risk-based rule.” The new documents do bear this out, showing for instance in the cases of the three members of Congress that each was put in the program after triggering a rule, identified by a multi-digit numeral. The “rules,” however, are in many cases just arcane combinations of demerits. While we’re unable to disclose the exact “derog” info that might entail, a hypothetical example might be: “A person who falls in a certain age range and traveled to the U.S. from a particular NATO Country and who traveled to one of four Middle Eastern countries in the last two years.”

Gabbard was ostensibly placed in the program because, as the Times reported, she attended an event “at the Vatican that was organized by a European businessman who appeared on an F.B.I. watch list.” Marshals were told this was the reason. The DHS documents include text exchanges between Marshals assigned to cover Gabbard from July 22 of last year. One section describes her as an “affiliate” with a member of the Terrorist Screening Database:

so Gabbard is an affiliate with a TSDB, and since she’s no longer in Congress that’s probably why she hit for the rule.

Yeah I talked with [redacted] about it and that’s the conclusion we came to as well.

cool cool

This explanation isn’t exactly seamless, however. Other well-known Americans should have triggered the same rule and did not. The use of Gabbard’s Congressional photo instead of an official one suggested to multiple former Marshals that there was at least human review of the episode.

“Obviously,” one former Marshal explained, “there is a way for human beings to influence the decision tree above our level.”

Quiet Skies wasn’t just a 9/11 anachronism that wasted taxpayer money and created a high risk of politicized use of federal enforcement resources. MacLean describes how the program complicated ordinary anti-terrorist surveillance, because Marshals were often seated in the backs of planes to watch members of Quiet Skies lists, and terrorists do not rush cockpits from rear seats. In a refrain that’s become common among current and former FBI agents as well as other enforcement or interdiction agents, MacLean complained, “The air marshal’s job is to protect the cockpit and the pilots. Let somebody else do the intelligence and criminal investigative work.” A Merit Systems Protection Board judge dismissed the complaint in early 2020, but the DHS IG agreed with MacLean later that year.

“For those flights covered by Federal air marshals,” it wrote, “seating positions on the aircraft, as well as aircraft layout, impeded sightlines and may have prevented air marshals from visually identifying potential threats.”

Another serious issue involved Marshals being asked to follow selectees all the way out of the airport to see who, if anyone, picks them up. They are asked to do this even overseas. “You’re basically telling air marshals to conduct foreign surveillance,” MacLean said. “It’s crazy.” He pointed to an incident in 2010 in which two Air Marshals had to flee Brazil on “alternate documents.” It wasn’t over Quiet Skies, but it underscores the risk of sending people not trained to operate overseas into the field abroad.

The elimination of Quiet Skies, along with programs like the Global Engagement Center, shows the administration is serious at least about eliminating the most obviously abusive and indefensible security programs. However, as I’ll be testifying this morning in the Senate, there are more. And they need to be reevaluated, and in many cases defunded. Thanks to Senator Paul and his staff for retrieving these documents.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 16:20

Leonardo DiCaprio's Poorly Timed "Pro-Antifa" Movie Flops At The Box Office

Hollywood has been sliding into a financial abyss that the town may never recover from, so one might expect film industry moguls to back away from the woke cancer that put them on the bad side of the American public.  The problem is, many production companies have projects that began principle filming before the 2024 election when the political left still naively believed that they were the national majority. 

Now, those companies are stuck with these movies even when they know box office failure is guaranteed.  One such movie is the latest from director Paul Thomas Anderson and lead star Leonardo DiCaprio, called "One Battle After Another". 

The movie is being hailed by the woke media as a "celebration of modern day Antifa revolutionaries".  Hollywood In Toto says the film “casts an Antifa-style group as its heroes,” while The San Francisco Chronicle described the film, referring to the protagonists as “an allegory that involves antifa-like left wing extremists, a well-funded right wing militia group, and immigrants avoiding ICE.”  The Daily Beast called it a “gonzo Antifa rallying cry.” 

 

The timing for such a project could not be worse.  Woke films with leftist political messaging are already guaranteed to fail in theaters the vast majority of the time.  Add to this the fact that the film is being premiered the same month that multiple mass shootings have been committed by leftist activists (including school shootings), Antifa mob attacks on immigration officers, as well as the assassination of conservative speaker Charlie Kirk committed by a gay man with a trans furry boyfriend using Antifa slogans written on his ammo.  

There's not a lot of public affinity for radical leftists at this time.  No one wants to see a movie glorifying them as protagonists.

  

This is why "One Battle After Another" is flopping hard at the box office.  The flick needs around $300 million to break even after marketing costs are included - It has only made $48.5 million globally.  Keep in mind, half of all box office revenues go to theaters, the other half goes to distributors.  And, a weak opening weekend usually portends a swift decline in ticket sales for the next few weeks after.  

Ultimately, the movie is likely to lose hundreds of millions of dollars and probably end up on streaming services in the very near term with little fanfare.  Get woke, go broke.

Paul Thomas Anderson's otherwise excellent track record for dramatic films cannot overcome the intense gravity of the woke black hole. Few if any films escape its cold grasp.  This is why it is suicide for content producers to jump onto political bandwagons; the movements they think are popular are usually not, and biases blind the creative process.  The foolishness of chasing propaganda should be obvious, but not to the dimwits in Hollywood.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 15:40

Damascus Orders Troops To 'Prepare For Operations' Against US-Trained SDF

Via The Cradle

Syria’s government has asked factions within the military to prepare for operations against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported Monday.

According to SOHR, Turkish-aligned factions in the Syrian army were asked to "prepare for operations" against the SDF in Deir Hafer and the Tishreen Dam area. SOHR added that officials in Damascus have requested that a campaign against the SDF not take more than a week. 

The operation would aim to pressure the Kurdish group into accepting the agreement signed with Damascus in March this year. Recent days have seen a significant buildup of both Syrian army forces and SDF troops in eastern Aleppo. 

Via Reuters

On Monday, SOHR reported escalating clashes in eastern Aleppo. More than 10 artillery shells struck areas around the Tishreen Dam following exchanges between the SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian factions. 

Earlier in the day, SOHR sources confirmed that orders were issued to deploy “show-of-force” units with heavy vehicles, tanks, and artillery to the Deir Hafer frontline in anticipation of possible SDF operations. 

There are also reports that the SDF has stationed kamikaze drones, rocket launchers, and long-range artillery near the local sugar factory.

Military reinforcements from Turkey also arrived at Kuweires Airport, while the Aleppo–Raqqa Road in Deir Hafer remained closed for a third consecutive day. Additional forces from both the SDF and Turkish-backed Syrian units have gathered around the Tishreen Dam, heightening concerns over an escalation. 

SOHR added that an SDF drone strike destroyed two positions of Turkish-backed Syrian factions in Qashla village on Sunday. 

There has been tension between the SDF and the government over a deal signed in March calling for the Kurdish group’s integration into Damascus’s forces. The two sides disagree about the deal’s implementation, particularly the SDF’s wish to remain under Kurdish command and enter the army as a bloc rather than dissolve and conscript. 

Skirmishes between the SDF and the Syrian army have broken out several times since last month. 

Ankara’s proxy, the Syrian National Army (SNA) coalition, was incorporated into Syria’s military after the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government last year. These Turkish-backed forces have been at odds with the SDF for years and are responsible for war crimes against Kurdish civilians in northern Syria. 

The SDF is made up predominantly of People’s Protection Units (YPG) forces. The YPG is the Syrian branch of Turkiye’s enemy, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). 

While Jolani basked in praise at the UNGA, his forces in Syria continued persecuting minorities and attacking the SDF.

We went SDF frontlines in Deir Ezzor and talked to Syrians about the ongoing violence under Jolani's rule. Please watch the full video: https://t.co/2pF0OZDzFX pic.twitter.com/Yu7i7hPtHn

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) September 25, 2025

The Turkish army, which occupies Syria and has operated against the SDF in the past, may be gearing up for a new campaign, self-appointed Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa said earlier this month. Turkey “may act militarily if full integration is not achieved by December,” Sharaa warned. In late May, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned the SDF to “quit stalling” and integrate with the Syrian army. 

Turkey is currently training Syria’s new extremist-dominated military. The National reported on August 17 that Damascus is assembling a force of 50,000 to capture Deir Ezzor and Raqqa from the SDF. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 15:20

"The Implications Are Profound": Trump May Have Helped Resolve A Key Global Conflict

By Michael Every of Rabobank

In classic The Economist-style timing, Foreign Affairs just ran a lead ‘China Goes on Offence’ which underlined “Beijing’s Plans to Exploit American Retreat.” Subsequent developments in the Middle East underlined the complete opposite.

With wild headlines such as ‘Trump to run Gaza with Blair’, a Trump-Netanyahu joint White House press conference officially unveiled the former’s 20-point plan to end the Gaza war and move towards a resolution of that issue – which Netanyahu has signed up to alongside the Gulf Cooperation Council and a slew of leading Muslim countries.

The deal is basically this: Hamas releases all remaining hostages in 72 hours; disarms; and its members who wish to will be given safe passage to third countries; a new US and Arab-backed security force will step in as Israel pulls back in stages; Trump will act as head of a new body called the Board of Peace alongside Blair and other global technocrats; no Gazans will be forced to leave; Israel will not annex any land; and massive deradicalisation efforts will proceed in tandem with reconstruction. The issue of a Palestinian state is kicked into the long grass until the foundations are literally placed for a stable polity and economy. There will also be a US-Qatar-Israel trilateral forum to try to find ways to cooperate.

Of course, Netanyahu has his far-right government coalition parties to deal with - but he has the support of opposition parties if he needs them. That leaves Hamas. There, the crucial point is that, following an official apology to Qatar from Netanyahu for his recent strike in it, even Doha is pushing it to agree - it looks like it is feeling US pressure as much as Israel is. Indeed, if Hamas don’t agree, the US and other Muslim countries behind the deal will allow Israel to crush it and then hand over those territories it liberates to be run and rebuilt as above one by one. In short, this looks like it is going to be done, as was said, “either the easy way, or the hard way.”

If so, the implications are profound. Trump would have helped resolve a key global conflict; the Abraham Accords could rapidly expand, and even to places like Indonesia; and the Middle East would be even more clearly under the US umbrella. Where were China and Russia as this happened? Nowhere. Equally, where was Europe? Where it has been for decades now.

China is instead mentioned in foreign affairs via the Australia’s ABC, which claims classified US intelligence is warning of China’s preparation for a Taiwan invasion. That’s as the Wall Street Journal reports the Pentagon is pushing to double US missile production for a potential China conflict, where suppliers have been asked how they can hit 2.5 times higher output in just 6–24 months, with private capital and licensing options therefore on the table.

Moreover, the Nikkei Asia reports the China-focused AUKUS defence pact has apparently survived an internal Pentagon review, and the planned US nuclear submarine sale to Canberra is to proceed - but will that mean the US making even greater reforms to speed up military production and/or Australia spending 5% of GDP on defence like NATO? To say there are major market implications in these dramatic geopolitical headlines is an understatement.

Russia is mentioned as Medvedev warned Europe of the danger of nuclear danger ahead and Germany’s Chancellor Merz said Europe is “no longer at peace” with Moscow. As one global front may cool down, will another then heat up?

Which one though? Colombia’s President Petro is seeking to revise the US-Colombia trade deal following his recent expulsion from the US after his visa was withdrawn for participating in a political protest, and Venezuela’s President Maduro signed a decree granting himself additional security powers, including the ability to mobilize armed forces nationally, as well as placing public firms under military control, obviously in response to US military statecraft nearby. So, the US has Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia --and Panama and Greenland-- to focus on under the Monroe Doctrine. That’s on top of Ukraine-Russia, and the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific.

In geoeconomics, we see a slew of related news. A Saudi real estate developer is to build a $1bn Trump plaza in a Red Sea port; the Saudis also acquired Electronic Arts for $55bn as part of a plan to build a gaming hub; and Riyadh is “Losing its appetite for oil”, says Bloomberg, arguing it’s becoming Solar Arabia.

The US tightened export controls on Chinese companies where subsidiaries of blacklisted firms now are too, as China’s US ambassador chided it for “closing doors” and enacting tariffs, and Huawei announced it will double its output of top AI chips. The US also put tariffs on lumber to prop up that sector.

In politics, with no deal reached, a US government shutdown seems to loom; the UK’s PM Starmer is to tell his party conference that GDP growth is the ‘antidote to division’ - as Chancellor Reeves warns against ditching the fiscal rules that don’t allow for more fiscal stimulus; and France’s socialists are threatening to topple Macron’s new PM Lecornu for his “unreasonable” deficit-reduction plans. Can you spot a pattern there?

In markets, “The US and Switzerland reconfirmed they have undertaken under the IMF Articles of Agreement to avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage,” in a joint official statement. Ironically, here it took geopolitical pressure to get a country to say, “OK, because markets!” rather than the opposite, which is the general economic statecraft trend.

Moreover, the key Swift system pledged to build a blockchain-based ledger for banks and financial firms, literally to make it swifter, as the geopolitical, geoeconomic, and global financial architecture all goes into joint flux.

Meanwhile, Aussie building approvals -6.0% m-o-m vs. +2.6% expected and China’s manufacturing PMI at 49.8 vs. 49.6 consensus, and non-manufacturing at 50.0 vs 50.2 are the kind of market minutiae that some might want to focus on instead.

The RBA left rates on hold at 3.60%, as expected and said growth in unit labour costs was too high, there are uncertainties over the domestic economic outlook (only the domestic?), and for now it was judged as better to “remain cautious.” Growth risks to the downside and inflation risks to the upside? This wasn’t supposed to happen.

Then again, neither were all of the foreign affairs developments we now see – which seem to have surprised some experts in Foreign Affairs.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 14:40

Oklo Secures Accelerated NRC Review For Advanced Reactor Criteria

SMR startup Oklo said in a release today that the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has accepted for review its Principal Design Criteria (PDC) topical report under an accelerated timeline, with regulators also proposing a reduced review schedule. The move signals the NRC’s push to modernize licensing for next-generation reactors while keeping safety standards intact.

The PDC report sets the safety, reliability, and performance criteria that will guide Oklo’s future reactor designs and licensing applications. Once approved, it can be referenced across future filings, avoiding duplicate reviews and streamlining regulatory steps — a key factor for Oklo’s plan to deploy its reactors rapidly and at scale.

Oklo noted it received acceptance just 15 days after filing, compared to the standard 30–60 days. The NRC told the company it expects to issue a draft evaluation in early 2026, less than half the traditional timeline.

“This is a reflection of the work by the Oklo team, and the NRC’s commitment to timely oversight,” said co-founder and CEO Jacob DeWitte. “Recent legislation and executive orders have called for the delivery of more nuclear power for clean, reliable energy on accelerated timelines, and this is how it’s done. Modernized, non-duplicative processes are key enablers for how advanced nuclear can scale rapidly and safely.”

The NRC’s acceptance dovetails with broader federal efforts. Executive orders issued in May 2025 direct agencies to streamline licensing, while the ADVANCE Act establishes a clearer path for advanced nuclear deployment. Together, they highlight Washington’s interest in accelerating clean energy innovation.

Recall days ago, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Oklo with a Neutral rating and a $117 price target. Meanwhile, shares have already surged nearly 20x from when Jim Cramer dismissed the stock in the high single digits...

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 14:20

Russia Signals Lower Gas Prices For China Compared With Europe And Turkey

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Russia expects to sell natural gas to China at significantly lower prices than it charges in Europe and Turkey, according to a draft outlook from the Economy Ministry tied to the 2026 budget. The document, seen by Bloomberg, projects that Chinese deliveries will be priced at least 27 percent below European and Turkish levels over the next three years, with the gap widening to 38 percent in 2025.

The numbers lay bare the price Moscow is paying for its eastward pivot. With Europe largely off the table, Russia has funneled volumes into the Power of Siberia line and is pushing to seal the long-delayed Power of Siberia-2, a 50-billion-cubic-meter conduit into northern China. The pipelines guarantee an outlet for Siberian gas, but they also cement steep discounts compared with what Europe once paid.

Statements by Russian officials have echoed this direction. 

Gazprom chief Alexei Miller has publicly acknowledged that gas sales t China would come at lower prices than to Europe, while President Vladimir Putin described the arrangement as giving China a “competitive advantage.” Chinese commentary has used more guarded language, referring to “reasonable market prices” and “competitive terms,” but reports in outlets such as Guancha and Cnyes confirm that Russia has offered Beijing a cheaper deal than its Western customers.

The strategy reflects Beijing’s leverage as the dominant buyer willing to absorb large Russian volumes. For Moscow, it ensures long-term outlets for gas even if it means reduced revenue per unit. 

The spread between Chinese and European prices could have significant implications for Gazprom’s finances and for regional LNG dynamics, as discounted pipeline gas strengthens China’s hand in negotiating spot cargoes from other suppliers.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 14:00

Vail Resorts Reports Drop In Season-Pass Sales Before Ski Season

Ahead of the coming ski season, Vail Resorts, which operates 37 mountain resorts across North America, reported on Monday that it sold fewer ski passes than previously expected, and this potentially is a bellwether for the upcoming season that may suggest consumers are shifting away from winter sports, or simply that the passes have become too expensive. 

"At the heart of our underperformance is that the way we are connecting with guests has not kept pace with the rapidly evolving consumer landscape," CEO Rob Katz said during a call with Wall Street analysts.

For the current fiscal year, Vail expects net income to be between $201 million and $276 million, down from $280 million last year and below the $286.2 million expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Here's the snapshot of the profit guidance that came in light, while EBITDA is roughly in line with Bloomberg Consensus estimates:

• Net income: $201M–$276M vs. Bloomberg consensus $286.2M (below expectations).

• EBITDA: $844M–$906M vs. consensus $892.7M (in line to slightly above).

In its latest fiscal quarter, Vail reported wider losses, although revenue increased, thanks to a tick up in ski resort traffic in Australia. 

Here's a snapshot of fourth quarter results: 

• Revenue: $271.3M (+2.2%), slightly below est. $274.4M

• EPS: -$5.08 vs. -$4.67; wider loss than est. -$4.73

• Effective Ticket Price: $63.20 (-8.5%), below est. $67.52

• EBITDA: -$124.8M (loss narrowed 7.7%), close to est. -$123.8M

• Skier Visits: 753K (+7.7%), shy of est. 772.9K

Through September 19, ski season tickets for the upcoming North American season were down by about 3% in terms of units and up about 1% in sales dollars. This is because passes are 7% higher than the previous season. 

Comments from Wall Street analysts (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Barclays (underweight)

• Pass sales update was disappointing and initial FY26 guidance is below consensus and will reset the bar, says analyst Brandt Montour

• Incremental details on the turnaround plan show some potential, but still not complete and not likely to revert to sustainable growth until FY27 at the earliest

Jefferies (hold, PT cut to $158 from $163)

• The impression is that both pricing and marketing strategies are being broadly retooled to drive growth for the FY27 season, which suggests FY26 is a transition operating year, says analyst David Katz

• Says visitation from both pass and non-pass sales is pressuring FY26 outlook

Truist Securities (buy, PT cut to $237 from $244)

• Investors were anticipating a modest beat for 4Q Ebitda given the strong snowfall in Australia, but actual results were only in-line with estimates, says analyst Charles Patrick Scholes

• Pass sales in both units and dollar terms came in lower than expected and marked a modest deceleration from reported figures in May

In the markets, shares are down 1% in trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Year-to-date, shares are down 21% as of Monday's close. Short interest accounts for 11.88% of the float, or about 4.2 million shares, with a 6.2-day average trading volume to cover. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 13:40

The GDP Illusion: Why Economic Growth Is Losing Its Meaning

Authored by Peter Reagan,

Politicians celebrate GDP gains as proof of a strong economy. But if “growth” just means paying more for groceries, gas, and utilities, are we really better off? Here’s why GDP is a mirage – and why what happens to “the economy” may not apply to you…

Growing up, illusions were a wonderful thing. Watching David Copperfield fool the audience on television was amazing, even magical.

As you get older, though, you realize that there are really two different types of illusions, one magical and wonderful. The other, a sort of con game to distract us from paying attention to what really matters.

I’m not going to get political today. Instead, I’ll simply say that every presidential administration I can remember talked about our nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the top measurement that we should all use to evaluate overall economic health.

So, the higher the GDP, the better the White House says the economy is doing. Thanks to their own policies and decisions, of course.

But is that true? Today we’ll explore the concept of a GDP and I’ll let you decide for yourself how relevant this number is for you…

What is included in that GDP figure?

GDP is a measure of economic activity. It’s calculated by adding up every dollar that was spent in the U.S. (Here’s a more technical definition for the curious, but honestly you don’t need to know everything about it.)

Here’s the formula for calculating GDP:

(Consumer spending) + (Government spending) + (Investment spending) + (Exports – Imports) = GDP

Here’s the breakdown (2024 numbers):

• 68%: Consumer spending is the biggest component, like I mentioned previously. Everything you spend money on, from haircuts to homes to Hawaiian vacations, increases GDP.

• 18%: Domestic investment is a business category that includes construction, capital investment like machinery purchases and business inventory (including, for example, unsold cars on a dealer’s parking lot. This is the most important category overall, in terms of boosting overall economic productivity.

• 17%: Government spending is also a significant component. Government spending on infrastructure, defense and payroll for both federal employees and contractors.

• -3%: Net exports of goods and services is negative because the U.S. imports more than we export.

First, you can see that “consumption” is by far the biggest category – and that’s troublesome, because most consumption is not economically productive. Necessary (food and fuel for example) but not productive.

Domestic investment includes building new factories, setting up or modernizing existing assembly lines and so on. This is by far the most important category for future economic growth.

Here’s the most worrisome thing about GDP calculations though – there’s no offset for debt! None!

Debt-financed purchases like a new home or a new federal construction program add to GDP. Paying off the debt incurred does not subtract from GDP. No matter when you pay it off.

In other words, GDP only tells you how much you spent on the shopping spree – and ignores the credit card bill that follows. ‘

Now that you know what GDP really means, let’s take another look at the current GDP report.

What current GDP figures are really saying

The most recent figures tell us GDP is growing. As Reuters informs us, “The U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter.” GDP grew 3.8% (annualized).

What changed? Well, imports dropped about 9% while exports fell a lot less, about -1%.

In other words, overall we shopped less and sold less internationally – which nets out as a win for GDP!

This seems so amazingly backwards to me… How can doing less business work out as a win?

Imagine you’re running a car dealership, for example. You bought 5,000 cars from the factory. You only sold 4,500 of them.

• For you, these unsold cars are a headache and a red flag about demand

• To the GDP statisticians, they’re a sign of “production,” so they count as growth!

How does this make any sense at all?

As confusing as it is, it helps you understand the difference between GDP reports and our personal experience with the economy…

What does this GDP surprise look like to American families?

What GDP isn’t telling you, though, is how the higher GDP is affecting the average family. See, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the price of ground beef increased by nearly 65% over the last five years.

Other necessities, like electricity, only went up 36% since 2020.

Here’s the astonishing thing: As your cost of living increases, GDP increases too! That’s right – higher bills means “increased economic activity” which is often interpreted as a booming economy. 

Do you feel wealthier at the grocery store, when your trip costs you 25% more than it would’ve in 2020?

I seriously doubt it. (I know I sure don’t!)

Here’s the reality: Higher GDP has nearly no correlation to prosperity. When you look at real-world changes in cost of living, we simply aren’t more prosperous than we were five years ago.

Period.

(No matter how much GDP increased over those years.)

The GDP illusion

Now do you understand how GDP is as much a measure of higher costs of living as it is a measure of real economic activity? 

Every time an elected official says, “The economy is doing great,” that’s not the whole story.

Again, I’m not trying to be political here. I understand that all politicians, the best and the worst of them, need to paint a rosy picture of how great the economy is doing. And, frankly, “the economy” is an abstract concept. “The economy” doesn’t really exist! That’s just the word we use to describe the one billion transactions that happen across the nation every single day. 

Obviously it’s completely impossible to say anything meaningful about a billion separate transactions. So lumping them all together and calling them “the economy” is a useful metaphor.

But metaphors aren’t reality. And when official GDP reports are contradicted by our actual experience in the real world?

It’s like my grandpa used to say: “Who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”

The closer you look at abstractions like “the economy” or “GDP,” the less useful they are. 

This is why it’s a mistake to take these numbers at face value.

Economists tell a nerdy joke about this: “An economic downturn is when your neighbor loses his job. A recession is when you lose yours.”

So what does this mean for you? Simply this: No matter how well (or poorly) “the economy” is doing, your experience is what matters. Your personal economic success is far more relevant than the second quarter’s GDP report.

Everyday Americans who’ve figured this out, who understand that their experience just isn’t accurately reflected by GDP reports or CPI updates – those are usually the folks who reach out to Birch Gold Group. When you understand that official numbers don’t always translate into stability or financial security for your family, you start looking for stability.

That’s where physical precious metals come in. Why precious metals? They aren’t an abstraction or a metaphor or a statistic. They’re real, tangible assets you can hold in your hand. And for thousands of different families all across the nation, physical gold and silver have become an anchor in uncertain times.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 13:21

PG&E Launches $73B California Grid Plan To Feed Starving AI

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Pacific Gas and Electric has unveiled a $73-billion spending program through 2030 to overhaul California’s grid as electricity demand from artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure explodes, Reuters reported on Monday. The utility said the plan will support as much as 10 gigawatts of new load from data centers slated for development in its service territory over the next decade.

Brent crude and copper traders aren’t the only ones recalibrating supply-demand curves. U.S. utilities are now staring down a structural load shock driven by AI. PG&E’s multibillion-dollar commitment indicates that AI has shifted from a niche workload to a dominant driver of electricity consumption. The scale is staggering, with a single hyperscale AI campus capable of drawing as much power as a small city, overwhelming systems already balancing renewable intermittency and wildfire risks.

California’s grid operator, CAISO, projects peak demand climbing from about 46,094 megawatts in 2025 to nearly 52,940 MW by 2030, which represents a 15% increase before counting speculative AI loads. Its 2025 assessment shows only 2,163 MW of new capacity coming online by mid-year, mostly batteries (1,654 MW) and solar (354 MW). That buildout won’t keep pace if AI data centers scale at current trajectories. 

California’s regulators estimate the state will need more than $30 billion in transmission and distribution upgrades over the next two decades just to stay level.

PG&E’s plan folds wildfire-hardening and undergrounding projects into a broader grid expansion blueprint, but the headline number is being read as a direct response to the “energy monster AI is creating.” Utilities from Virginia to Texas are reporting similar strains, and California’s tight reserve margins leave less room to maneuver.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 12:40

'Government Grift' ETF Tracking Congress Trades Could Launch This Week

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

An exchange-traded fund tracking the trading activity of American politicians, individuals and companies with close ties to the US president could launch later this week, according to an analyst. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that Tuttle Capital Government Grift ETF (GRFT) could launch as early as Friday, as the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday set Oct. 3 as the date that Tuttle’s S-1 registration statement will become effective.

First proposed by Tuttle Capital Management earlier this year, the ETF would scan STOCK Act transaction reports to track trades made by members of Congress and their spouses.

The fund would also invest in companies with demonstrated ties to presidential influence, which may include companies with executives or directors affiliated with the White House, or businesses that receive praise from the US president, currently Donald Trump.

GRFT would track between 10 and 30 stocks and ETFs, with position sizes reflecting both the scale of congressional trading and the perceived influence of presidential backing.

“The Fund’s strategy is grounded in the belief that political actors — particularly members of the US Congress and individuals closely associated with the President — can influence market outcomes or possess information that materially affects security pricing,” Tuttle said in the prospectus filing in late June.

Source: Eric Balchunas

Cointelegraph reached out to Tuttle to find out more, but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Crypto could be in Tuttle’s fund

Trump’s involvement in cryptocurrency has been well-documented — and heavily criticized by some. 

One of Trump’s connections to the crypto industry is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which holds 15,000 Bitcoin worth $1.7 billion, while its subsidiary Truth Social has had spot crypto ETFs filed on its behalf.

Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin Corp (ABTC) is another publicly traded stock that is backed by the Trump family.

While not publicly traded stocks, Trump has been tied to two Trump-related memecoins — one named after him and the other after his wife, Melania — which launched a few days before he was inaugurated in January.

He is also closely tied to World Liberty Financial, a crypto platform in which the Trump family has $5 billion worth of WLFI tokens.

Tuttle already has several crypto ETPs in play

Tuttle lists several leveraged crypto exchange-traded products that seek to double the daily return of XRP , Solana, Litecoin and Chainlink, and many other cryptocurrencies.

Dozens of crypto ETFs are awaiting for official SEC approval

Meanwhile, the SEC approved generic listing standards for faster crypto ETF approvals earlier this month, potentially paving the way for several new crypto ETFs to enter the market, expanding beyond the spot Bitcoin and Ether  ETFs currently on offer.

Balchunas said the SEC’s generic listing standards essentially bumped the odds of more spot crypto ETF approvals up to 100% on Monday.

“Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock' meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 11:20

Poland Arrests Ukrainian Diver Over Nord Stream Sabotage Explosions

The plot surrounding the mystery of the 2022 Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage explosions and secret op continues to thicken, as Poland on Tuesday issued a surprise announcement saying it has arrested a suspect connected with it.

"A Ukrainian man suspected of being involved in causing undersea explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Germany in 2022 was arrested in Poland, a spokesperson for the District Prosecutor’s Office in Warsaw said Tuesday," The Associated Press reports.

Getty Images

Without irony or satire, the AP identifies further that "Volodymyr Z. was detained in Pruszkow, central Poland, according to Polish radio station RMF FM, which first reported his capture" - based on a European arrest warrant issued by German authorities. 

The man in custody has elsewhere been described, including by Reuters, as a Ukrainian diver wanted by Germany... and his name is Volodymr Z... though the reporting is not based on The Onion.

This is the second recent arrest related to the Nord Stream sabotage investigation, as last month another Ukrainian man was arrested in Italy in connection.

The mainstream media narrative on this major event which came early in the Ukraine war has shifted dramatically several times. In the opening months, the MSM was lockstep in collectively assuming Russia must have bombed its own key pipelines, effectively economically sabotaging itself and a (at the time) leading European energy export partner.

Then, as we highlighted, there was in 2024 the "bombshell" WSJ Nord Stream report which was a shift, but yet another attempt by mainstream gatekeepers to put official distance between President Zelensky and his supposedly 'rogue' top general at the time who 'oversaw' the covert op.

The WSJ report with the lengthy title: "A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage: Private businessmen funded the shoestring operation, which was overseen by a top general; President Zelensky approved the plan, then tried unsuccessfully to call it off,"... has for the most part become the official accepted narrative.

But legendary US journalist Seymour Hersh has maintained the whole time that it was the CIA and a special elite diving branch of the US Navy behind it, in "How America Took Out the Nord Stream Pipeline".

Andromeda yacht believed used (in the WSJ's presentation) by a 'rogue' Ukrainian sabotage team, via WSJ/Getty Images

Ultimately, the following is now crystal clear and fully established at this point, as even mainstream media now fully admits: Yes, Ukraine was likely involved. No, Russia did not do it. And yes it probably had the involvement or at least foreknowledge of the CIA or other Western intelligence groups.

As for the newly arrested suspect, the ongoing investigation is unlikely to produce anything 'new' which might embarrass the Ukrainians or Western intelligence - or at least nothing which will readily be made public.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 09:15

US Home Prices Drop For 5th Straight Month In July, Led By Tampa

With new home prices falling and median existing home prices rising in August (while average existing home prices rise, signaling 'expensive' homes are selling), this morning's (admittedly lagged and smoothed) Case-Shiller home price data was expected to decline (for July)... and it did, but ony marginally.

Home prices across the top 20 cities in the US fell by 0.07% MoM (less than the 0.2% decline expected) - the fifth straight monthly drop in prices. This pulled the YoY price appreciation down to 1.82%, the lowest since July 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

The US is coming off its weakest spring selling season in 13 years after high prices and mortgage rates sidelined many would-be buyers.

“July’s results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear,” said Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones
Indices. 

"In other words, U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners. This reversal is striking: during the pandemic boom, home prices were climbing far faster than inflation, rapidly boosting homeowners’ real equity. Now, the situation has flipped – over the last year, owning a home yielded a modest nominal gain, but an inflation-adjusted loss. "

The geographic hierarchy of U.S. housing continues its dramatic shake-up, with 7 cities seeing outright price declines YoY...

• Denver -0.6%

• San Diego -0.7%

• Phoenix -0.9%

• Dallas -1.3%

• Miami -1.3%

• San Francisco -1.9%

• Tampa -2.8%

However, given the decline mortgage rates, one could argue that home prices are set to re-accelerate soon (which fits with the slowdown in the price depreciation)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the bright side, declining home prices (and the follow through into PCE/CPI calculations for Shelter costs) could more than offset any tariff-driven anxiety over the next few months.

But, home price changes do seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies home prices could rapidly decelerate in the new year (after a brief rebound)...

Source: Bloomberg

“Looking ahead, the housing market appears to be settling into a new, more measured equilibrium,” Godec concluded.

“The era of 15-20% annual home price jumps is behind us, and in its place we’re seeing growth rates closer to overall inflation – or even a bit below it. While that means homeowners aren’t gaining wealth at the breakneck pace of the recent past, it also signals a potentially healthier trajectory for housing in the long run.

The question remains, that after slashing rates by 100bps (last year), home prices have started to decline (with significant lag)... is that what The Fed wants this year too, now that the rate-cutting cycle has restarted?

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 09:10

"You Pissed Off The Wrong Daddy!": Father Of Murder Victim Unloads On Dems' Soft-On-Crime Policies

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

In emotionally fraught testimony Monday, Steve Federico, father of a young woman who was brutally murdered by a black career criminal in South Carolina, pleaded with Democrats to stop protecting dangerous criminals with soft-on-crime policies.

The House Judiciary Committee held a field hearing in Charlotte, North Carolina, Monday, to “examine violent crime in Charlotte, North Carolina and the surrounding areas looking at repeat offenders and lenient pretrial release policies and decisions among others.”

The man’s daughter, Logan Federico, 22, was fatally shot in the chest by Alexander Dickey, 30, during a home invasion on May 3, 2025.  She had been visiting friends at a rented property in Columbia, South Carolina at the time of the execution-style murder.

“When I tell you this story, think about your kids,” her father said, his voice trembling with raw emotion.

“Think about your child coming home from a night out with their friends, laying down, going to sleep, feeling somebody come in the room and wake them and drag her out of bed, naked, forced on her knees, with her hands over her head! Begging for her life, begging for her hero, her father—ME!—that couldn’t be there,” Federico testified.

“She was five foot three, she weighed 115 pounds … BANG! … dead, gone!” he cried.  “Why?  Because Alexander Devante Dickey, who was arrested 39 G-d damn times—25 felonies!—was on the street. How about that?!”

Addressing the committee members,  Federico asked, “how good are we doing for out families? How good are you doing for your kids?”

The father added: “He should have been in jail for over a 140 years for all the crimes he’d committed. You know how much time he spent in prison? A little over 600 days in ten years.”

Federico noted that Dickey had been “committing 2.6 crimes a year since he was 16-years-old” but nobody had figured out that he couldn’t be rehabilitated.

“Well, you’d have to put him in prison to see if he could be rehabilitated,” he pointed out.

Federico said his daughter had just decided she wanted to be a teacher “two weeks before she was executed.”

The grieving father noted that he has not heard from South Carolina’s Fifth Judicial Circuit Court Solicitor, Byron Gipson, a Democrat who was elected to the position in 2018.

“Not one word,” Federico fumed. “Four months, no communication!”

Gipson, with his 21 years as a defense attorney, quickly earned the reputation as a soft-on crime prosecutor after taking office in January 2019.

According to the National Police Association, Gipson has gained critics and detractors “among people who tend to think dangerous and violent criminals should be kept separated from docile and law-abiding citizens. Irrespective of his relatively short prosecutorial resume—and that’s being generous to the point of absurdity—Gipson has said and done things as Solicitor that warrant criticism and derision.”

Federico said Gipson’s “biggest concern” was how he’d made the prosecutor look during his Fox News interview with former House member Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.).

“How pathetic is that?” he thundered. “She was literally executed while on her knees! Begging for her life!”

He added indignantly, “her name is Logan Federico!—not Irena!”

Earlier in the hearing, Rep. Deborah Ross (D-N.C.) had confused Federico’s daughter with 23-year-old Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska, who was fatally stabbed on August 22, 2025, while riding Charlotte’s LYNX Blue Line light rail by another black repeat offender. That suspect, 34-year-old Decarlos Brown Jr., also has a long history of prior convictions. He was charged with first-degree murder and also faces federal charges.

Federico demanded stronger protections against these dangerous repeat offenders, emphasizing the need for accountability and justice for the victims of violent crime.

“You will not forget her! I promise you. You will be sick and tired of my face and my voice until this gets fixed. I will fight until my last breath for my daughter,” he promised.

Addressing the committee again, he added, “you need to fight for the rest of our children, the rest of the innocents, and stop protecting the people that keep taking them from us!”

“Please! You have the power. We put you in power to do what you have to do. We’re asking you, we’re begging you all, to stop this!” Federico said, adding that was no good reason why someone who had committed 25 felonies would be walking the streets.

“What you all did, you woke up a beast and you pissed off the wrong daddy!” he declared.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 08:55

Oil Prices Tumble After Report OPEC+ Will Accelerate Production Hikes

OPEC+ is to discuss fast tracking its latest round of supply hikes in three monthly instalments of about 500,000 barrels a day to recoup market share.

This comes after the cartel announced earlier this month that they were adding a much smaller amount than that - about 137,000 barrels a day - leaving a question mark about how fast the rest will be returned.

So, now, Bloomberg reports that, according to a delegate, Saudi Arabia and its partners will review the expedited return of the remainder of a 1.66 million barrel-a-day supply tranche when they meet on Oct. 5.

The result is further pressure on the price of oil...

...testing the lows of its recent channel (ironically extending losses after similar rumors hit crude prices yesterday).

The IEA already forecast that the oil market is headed for a record supply-demand surplus next year.

Finally, we note that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is heading to Washington in November to meet with President Donald Trump, who has called for lower oil prices (infuriating Dallas Fed survey respondents who said Trump's energy policies are crushing local workers).

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/30/2025 - 08:35