US Unleashes Another Wave Of Crude From Strategic Reserve As Gas Prices Soar

The U.S. government will loan 53 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to petroleum companies in a bid to relieve elevated gas and oil prices amid the conflict with Iran.

In a news release on Monday, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced it would release the crude oil from its sites in Louisiana and Texas to contribute to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) move to stabilize the price of oil, which has often risen above $100 per barrel since the conflict started on Feb. 28.

As of Tuesday morning, the price for a barrel of Brent crude oil rose slightly to $108.

“Deliveries will begin immediately as the Department continues to move swiftly to address short-term supply disruptions and strengthen U.S. energy security,” the agency said in a statement, adding that petroleum companies “may begin scheduling deliveries immediately.”

The DOE, according to the news release, will “evaluate market conditions and operational capacity as it advances additional steps to meet the full United States commitment under the coordinated international release.”

Trafigura is taking the largest haul of nearly 13 million barrels, followed by Marathon and Exxon Mobil Corp, the US Energy Department said Monday.

Near-record volumes of government oil are flowing to market in a bid to rein in prices at the pump ahead of the busy summer driving season.

As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, participating petroleum companies can also use President Donald Trump’s usage of the Jones Act waiver, a federal statute that requires all goods transported by water between U.S. ports to be carried on American ships with American crews, to help “accelerate critical near-term oil flows into the market,” the DOE release said.

The DOE has already loaned around 80 million barrels from the reserve in recent weeks, bringing the total to 172 million barrels.

The U.S. government had agreed to that larger amount in March in a ​pact with more than 30 countries in the IEA to release about 400 million barrels.

The oil will be released between June and August, when refiners crank up as gasoline demand peaks.

The decision is an attempt to mitigate the price increases caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes on a normal day. Iran has launched strikes and threatened commercial vessels in the strait, while it has also said it would create a legal framework to oversee the transportation of ships in the area.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s director, has said the Iran war has created the biggest-ever energy ‌crisis.

If ⁠supply disruptions from the war persist, the agency is ready to release additional oil from strategic reserves, Birol said on May 7.

So far, member countries have released 20 percent of available reserves, Birol said.

“This is indeed the biggest crisis ​in history,” Birol told France Inter ​radio in an interview broadcast on April 21.

“The ⁠crisis is already huge, if you combine ​the effects of the petrol crisis and the ​gas crisis with Russia.”

The SPR, held in caverns at four sites ​on the coasts of Texas and Louisiana, currently holds about 393 million barrels.

The Trump administration committed to release 172 million barrels in a so-called exchange program, where oil is loaned to companies and must be returned in kind at a later date.

So far the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels.

It’s unclear if the energy department will hold another offer until it meets the 172 million-barrel target.

Not all the oil remains in the US. Part of it is being exported to Europe and South America.

The announcement from the DOE comes as Trump said on Monday at the White House that he rejected the latest peace proposal from the Iranian regime and signaled that a already-tenuous ceasefire between the United States and Iran is on “life support.”

Also on Monday, Trump said he would move to suspend the federal tax on gasoline in a bid to lower prices at the pump.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 17:20

Unearthed DOJ Files Implicate Hunter Biden In Potential Sex Trafficking Violations

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

Newly released internal DOJ files appear to implicate President Joe Biden’s disgraced son, Hunter Biden, in alleged prostitution-related activity, corroborating accusations raised years earlier by Senate Republicans.

Hunter Biden / PHOTO: AP

The files, obtained Monday by the Senate Judiciary Committee and the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, showed Hunter exchanging text messages with several women discussing payments, travel arrangements and extended meetings.

Some of the exchanges appeared to raise potential issues under the Mann Act. This federal law prohibits interstate prostitution and other sex trafficking-related offenses, according to Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa.

Notably, Grassley was among the Senate Republicans who previously warned in a September 2020 report that Hunter may have paid Eastern European women for prostitution or interacted with individuals potentially tied to a human trafficking ring.

The messages reviewed by Headline USA also referenced payment methods including Zelle, Venmo, Cash App and wire transfers.

In November 2018, Hunter appeared to have booked a flight for an unidentified woman from Los Angeles to an undisclosed location.

On March 22, 2019, a presumed woman told Hunter that a ticket cost $560. Hunter replied: “I’m going to send you money and you buy ok.”

Another message later stated: “Sent you 750 by cash app,” while a separate exchange read: “And I will have another 3K for you in cashmere [sic].”

Additional messages appeared to discuss payments tied to extended periods. In one exchange, Hunter appeared to ask how much an individual would charge for “an extra eight hours,” prompting the recipient to reply: “5000.”

Hunter also appeared to reference discounts for “anything over 4,” seemingly referring to hours.

In another exchange, after Hunter offered $9,000, the recipient replied: “9500 ok.” Hunter then responded he would “wire money at 2 pm all of it thanks love.”

Separate January 2019 messages showed a recipient repeatedly complaining that money had not arrived. Hunter replied that he had sent two certified checks to a New York P.O. Box address.

Other exchanges appeared to reference the availability of individuals in different parts of the country.

According to Grassley, the DOJ possessed the files but declined to pursue prostitution- or sex-related charges against Hunter.

Prosecutors instead focused on tax violations and false statements Hunter made on a federal firearm purchase form regarding his drug addiction.

Before leaving office, Joe Biden issued Hunter a sweeping blanket pardon covering any federal offenses potentially committed between January 1, 2014, and Dec. 1, 2024. This was the first time in U.S. history a sitting president issuing such a broad pardon to his own child.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 17:00

Iran Specifies 5 Demands To Restart Peace Talks With US

Iran on Tuesday revealed its demands in a counteroffer to the United States that President Trump shot down on Sunday, which has put the whole conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks in a holding pattern and stalemate, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.

The demands hinge on war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to US sanctions - things which the White House balked at, with war reparations especially being focus of rejection by the US side, and the lack of taking up the nuclear issue, which Iran has insisted is a non-starter and would only be dealt with after the war is settled.

via AFP

Trump had previously made clear on Truth Social that "I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!"

Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem has listed the following five conditions that it sees as the basis for reentering talks:

1. Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon

2. Lifting all sanctions

3. Releasing frozen Iranian assets

4. Compensation for war damages and losses

5. Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz

Again, all this according to Tehran must be agreed to while at the same time Iran is pushing back against nuclear negotiations.

In a Monday press briefing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei had publicly alluded to several of these, including in his words, "Demanding an end to the war, lifting the blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure."

Also, there was mention of "Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security" - before talks could begin in good faith.

Tehran apparently feels it can weather the tightening economic noose its under, given Tanker Trackers on Tuesday said Iran has not successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days.

To our best knowledge, Iran hasn't successfully exported* any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days. Some refined products managed to escape because US OFAC did not slap sanctions on those tankers.

In addition, Kharg Island hasn't loaded any tankers since 2026-05-06 as a result…

— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 12, 2026

Trump, just before his departure to China, remarked to Axios: "Iran will either do the right thing or we will finish the job... we are either gonna make a deal or they will be decimated."

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 16:40

Kevin Warsh Cleared By Senate For 14‑Year Fed Board Seat

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Kevin Warsh will be returning to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

The U.S. Senate voted 51–45 to approve Warsh’s nomination to a 14-year term on the central bank’s board on May 12, joining six other members. Four senators did not file a vote.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) crossed party lines to support President Donald Trump’s nominee.

Warsh’s tenure as Fed governor will run until 2040.

He previously served on the board from 2006 to 2011, when he resigned over differences regarding the leadership’s post-crisis quantitative easing program.

Governors serve 14-year terms to prevent political pressure.

Their roles consist of voting on monetary policy, supervising and regulating the financial system, and overseeing the Fed’s 12 regional banks.

The vote also marked the end of Stephen Miran’s brief tenure on the board.

Miran, who previously served as head of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, was nominated by the president last summer to fill the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It is unclear if he plans to return to the Trump administration.

Senators will next vote on Warsh’s confirmation as head of the Federal Reserve, which could happen as early as May 13.

Walking a Minefield

Warsh’s return to the Fed could be marred by challenges, mainly due to the 11-week-old Iranian conflict reviving price pressures across the U.S. economy.

April’s annual consumer inflation rate accelerated to 3.8 percent, the highest level since May 2023 and above consensus forecasts.

The war has lifted global energy prices, forcing drivers to pay more at the pump.

The national average for a gallon of gasoline—as of May 12—is parked at $4.50.

Structural inflation could also be under threat.

Twelve-month core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, edged higher to 2.8 percent, topping estimates.

Warsh has been a frequent critic of the Fed’s policy decisions.

He has argued that the central bank can lower interest rates as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom would be disinflationary and reduce business and consumer prices.

At the same time, Warsh has stated that the Fed should scale back its balance sheet use.

A point of contention is whether Warsh will maintain Fed independence.

He has reaffirmed his support for monetary autonomy. But it does not mean it is under threat if elected officials weigh in on policy, he said.

Kevin Warsh (L), U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve during his Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs confirmation hearing in Washington on April 21, 2026.  Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates,” Warsh said in his opening remarks in front of the Senate Banking Committee.

Despite his clarification on Fed independence, there are still questions surrounding how he would navigate policy, says Rebecca Homkes, an economist and former fellow at the London School of Economics Center for Economic Performance.

“Warsh’s over-bullishness on AI’s impact on productivity should be more of a discussion, as we need the next Fed Chair to be working to steer a policy approach of better, robust data and research to understand this technology,” she told The Epoch Times.

“What’s raising more eyebrows is his insistence on his reform agenda, including changes to responsibilities, press briefings, and what topic areas they cover.”

Warsh has teased a series of changes he could bring to the Fed: updating long-standing economic models, reforming how the central bank communicates with the public, and potentially how the Fed targets inflation.

Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed-income strategist at LPL Financial, says Warsh’s approach to monetary policy would likely be far more traditional than the approach practiced over the past 20 years.

“Rather than leaving heavily on intervention and detailed promises about the future path of rates, Warsh has consistently argued for restraint, humility, and a greater reliance on incoming data,” Gillum said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

If confirmed, Warsh would head the June 16 to June 17 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

Investors have priced in the expectation that the Fed will not lower interest rates at all this year. A growing chorus of traders has started forecasting a rate hike sometime in 2027.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 16:20

Millions Of Student Borrowers Are Defaulting: They Are 40 Years Old On Average

The NY Federal published its latest report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter: the report showed total household debt increased by $18 billion, just a 0.1% increase, in Q1 2026, to $18.8 trillion. 

Some details:

• Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports grew slightly by $21 billion during the first quarter of 2026 and totaled $13.19 trillion at the end of March.
• Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) rose by $12 billion, marking the 16th consecutive quarterly increase. Outstanding HELOC balances now total $446 billion, $129 billion above the low reached in 2022Q1.
• Non-housing debt balances declined by $15 billion, or 0.3%, from 2025Q4. This decline was driven primarily by a seasonal decrease in credit card balances, which fell by $25 billion and now stand at $1.25 trillion.
• Student loan balances were essentially flat, decreasing by $6 billion and standing at $1.66 trillion.
• Auto loan balances grew by $18 billion, to $1.69 trillion.
• Other balances, which include retail cards and consumer finance loans, edged down by $2 billion to $562 billion.

The volume of newly originated credit held steady in the first quarter of 2026 for both mortgages and auto loans.  Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, were largely steady with $530 billion newly originated in 2026Q1.

About 59,000 individuals had new foreclosures on their credit reports, a slight increase from the previous quarter.

There were $182 billion in new auto loans appearing on credit reports during the first quarter.

Aggregate limits on credit cards continued to rise, with a $60 billion (1.1%) uptick in the first quarter, to ~$5.5 trillion.  Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose, albeit at a slightly slower pace, by $14 billion (1.4%), continuing an expansion in HELOCs that began in 2022.

The total balance of loans delinquent at least 30 days remained unchanged at 4.8% from the prior quarter after six quarters of steady increase. Still, the overall delinquency rate matched the highest level reported since 2017. Transition into early delinquency held steady for auto loans, but ticked down for credit cards, from 8.7% annually to 8.6%, and for mortgages from 3.9% to 3.8%. 

“Aggregate household debt levels rose slightly, with modest increases in most debt types offsetting a seasonal decline in credit card balances,” said Daniel Mangrum, Research Economist at the New York Fed. “Delinquency transition rates were mostly steady, while student loan delinquencies are returning to pre-pandemic levels.”

More concerning is that the percentage of loan balances that are seriously delinquent and set to transition to default/discharge continues rising - student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in 2025Q4 - and while it hit a new post-covid high for student loans after the Biden moratorium ended last year, the credit card picture is most dire, with the percentage there on pace to surpass the financial crisis record in the next few quarters. As shown below, transition rates into serious delinquency were mostly unchanged for auto loans and credit cards, but increased slightly for mortgages from 1.4 % annually to 1.5%. The student loan delinquency rate increased to 10.3% of balances 90+ days delinquent, up from the 9.6% observed in Q4 2025.

Some more details: 

• The student loan transition rate into serious delinquency, measured as a four-quarter moving sum, declined from 16.2% in Q4 2025 to 10.9% this quarter, reflecting a slower pace of new student loan delinquencies in the first quarter relative to the previous year.
• 2.6 million student loan borrowers who were more than 120 days past due had their loans transferred to the U.S Department of Education’s Default Resolution Group.

About 124,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2026Q1, a pace unchanged from the previous quarter. The percentage of consumers with a third-party collection account on their credit report worsened slightly to 5.0 percent

Taking a closer look at the army of defaulting "students", the WSJ writes that millions of borrowers are defaulting on their student loans, and they are nearly 40 years old on average. That is nearly 2½ years older than the profile of a student-loan defaulter before the pandemic. Borrowers 50 and older are now at higher risk of default than younger borrowers. 

Since a pandemic-era pause on student-loan repayments ended in 2023, the federal government has been pushing people to start repaying their loans. In the fourth quarter of last year, those who failed to restart payments began defaulting, meaning they hit 270 days past due on their payments. The New York Fed estimated that more than 3.5 million people defaulted between October and March.

The Fed report offers a look at who is defaulting:

• Most recently, the share of student-loan balances past due increased to just over 10%, nearing prepandemic levels.
• The average borrower in default is more likely to live in the South, though borrowers are defaulting across the country.
• Most of the newly defaulted borrowers weren’t past due on their student loans before the pandemic.
• Borrowers who have defaulted on their student loans are struggling to make other debt payments, too. Nearly 40% of those with auto loans are past due, 56% with at least one credit card are past due and 20% with a mortgage are past due. Loan delinquencies have been broadly trending higher.
• Some of these borrowers are likely parents who borrowed on behalf of their children, New York Fed researchers said.

The report found that Gen X borrowers, including those age 50 to 61, have the highest average student-loan balance of any age group. Many of them either reached college age as the modern federal student-loan system was forming or borrowed later, likely on behalf of their children.  

Just as concerning is that in late 2024, borrowers who missed their student-loan payments saw steep drops in their credit scores for the first time in years. 

The Trump administration has been revamping the federal student-loan system, emphasizing repayment. It is a reversal from the Biden administration, which pushed policies to reduce monthly payments for borrowers and get them closer to student-loan forgiveness. 

The biggest consequence for defaulted borrowers is that they could have their wages, tax returns and Social Security garnished. But the Education Department has delayed its garnishment plans. 

Finally, the Saving on a Valuable Education plan, or SAVE, one of the more affordable student-loan repayment plans introduced by the Biden administration, is ending, forcing millions of borrowers to transition to new plans. The new Repayment Assistance Plan, or RAP, is being introduced in July. As millions of borrowers transition out of SAVE, they will see their monthly payments increase under other income-based repayment plans. Many of them could also default on their student loans in the coming months, according to the Fed.

Source: NY Fed

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:40

Illinois Sued Over Allegedly Using Race As A Factor In Congressional Map

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times,

A public interest law firm announced Monday it was suing Illinois over its use of race in drawing congressional maps.

The lawsuit accuses the state of violating the 15th Amendment, which prohibits government from denying a citizen the right to vote based on race, and the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in light of a recent Supreme Court ruling, which found district boundaries drawn primarily with racial considerations are unconstitutional.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation filed the lawsuit May 8 in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of Illinois after the high court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais on April 29.

“States may not use race to allocate power,” the group’s president and general counsel, John Christian Adams, said.

The suit specifically named Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, the Illinois State Board of Elections, and its executive director Bernadette Matthews as defendants.

None immediately responded to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Pritzker signed a new congressional map for his state in 2021, and he said at the time that the “Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 ensures redistricting plans are crafted in a way that preserves clusters of minority voters if they are of size or cohesion to exert collective electoral power. The maps signed into law today meet those requirements to adequately preserve minority representation and reflect the diversity of our state.”

The Public Interest Legal Foundation argued in the lawsuit that this statement from the governor is a direct admission to violating federal law in using race to draw districts.

Furthermore, the Illinois Voting Rights Act of 2011 illegally mandated a racial map, ordering districts to be created as crossover, coalition, or influence districts, the group said.

According to the state’s legislation, a crossover district is where majority voters vote with the racial or language minority to elect their preferred candidate.

A coalition district is where more than one group of racial or language minorities can form a coalition to elect a candidate of all of their choice. An influence district is where a racial or language minority can impact the outcome of an election even if its preferred candidate cannot be elected.

All three types of districts in Illinois require “drawing district lines to preserve deliberate racial percentages, racial majorities, and the deliberate preservation of racial influence districts,” the lawsuit read.

The public interest law firm is representing Jeanne Ives, an Illinois resident, voter, and former state legislator. Attorneys for Ives said she has seen the state’s redistricting up close and how it violates the U.S. Constitution.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation is also currently challenging California’s congressional map, using the Louisiana v. Callais decision to try to invalidate it.

Since that Supreme Court ruling, Republican-led states have leapt at the opportunity to redraw their congressional districts ahead of the midterm elections this year with the GOP’s House majority on the line.

The coast-to-coast redistricting battle has shifted further in favor of Republicans following the high court’s ruling.

On May 8, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey signed a bill that would authorize a new primary election if a court ruled favorably on the state’s redistricting litigation. Alabama also filed an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to rule in its case, which was granted Monday.

Tennessee already passed redistricting legislation to carve up the state’s only blue district.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the Sunshine State’s new map into law on May 4.

A South Carolina plan for redistricting is also advancing through the state’s legislature.

Meanwhile, Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down an attempt at a new map favoring Democrats. The state has now appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation’s lawsuit against Illinois and California’s maps, if successful, could tip the scales toward Republicans and set an example for other Democratic-run states.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:25

Trump Ready To Raise "Core Of China's Core Interests" In Xi Summit: Daily Schedule & What To Expect

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to raise the issue of increasingly costly US arms transfers to Taiwan during their bilateral summit at the end of this week, spanning Thursday through Friday. Taiwan of course remains the "core of China's core interests" - as Beijing has in the recent past characterized the issue. While Trump officials have previewed that it will be focused on trade and investment, the White House too is reportedly placing Taiwan and regional geopolitical hot button issues on the agenda.

"I'm going to have that discussion with President Xi," Trump told reporters at the White House, specifically on the question of weapons sales. "President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion. That's one of the many things I’ll be talking about."

via Reuters

Also there's the looming question of the future of the Iran war and blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Currently there's a stalemated situation and supposed ceasefire which is barely holding. By many accounts, Trump was hopeful that the Iran 'excursion' would be wrapped up by now, but it now seems to be sliding into protracted quagmire - critics point out.

The WSJ says that Beijing is feeling confident as it prepares to receive Trump and what's looking to be a rather large entourage:

But behind the scenes, Beijing feels more emboldened, and more insistent on defending areas it regards as vital to its long-term strategic interests.

These include resisting U.S. pressure to relax its grip over global supply chains and fundamentally rebalance trade between the two countries. They also include urging Washington to look the other way as it pressures Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, and as it projects military power across Asia.

“They feel very well about how last year played out,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution and a former U.S. intelligence officer focused on China. “They showed they could weather the storm and the administration had to climb down from the tariffs and spend most of the past year trying to mollify China.”

As for more implications of the Iran war dragging on as Trump goes to Beijing, CNBC writes:

Iran’s ambassador to China Reza Rahmani Fazli in a Tuesday post on X pressed Tehran's case with Beijing, saying that the relationship between the two is too strong for the U.S. to overcome.

The bottom line is that higher energy prices are baked in for the foreseeable future. The price of crude oil makes up about half of the cost of a gallon of gas, according to the Energy Information Administration. 

And U.S. elections are less than six months away. The 2026 midterm elections will be a crucial referendum on Trump and the Republican Party as they seek to retain a lock on both chambers in Congress.

Trump early Tuesday put out the following message on Truth Social, teasing that the next regime change operations could be unleashed on China's small island-nation ally in America's immediate backyard...

For some further big picture analysis on how the Iran gambit has raised the stakes, and made the Beijing summit more unpredictable, the below is some fresh Rabobank commentary outlining related developments to watch:

In a case of curious timing, the US just imposed fresh sanctions on individuals and firms involved in facilitating Iranian oil sales to China, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao yesterday released a new 30-year shipbuilding plan. That plan anticipates the acquisition of 11 nuclear-powered Trump class battleships, new underwater drones, and an ongoing review to the Ford class aircraft carrier design to increase lethality and reliability while reducing unit costs and production lead times. The planned expansion of the US fleet and shipbuilding industrial base is undoubtedly a reaction to China’s growing naval strength and substantial advantage in production capacity. The message to Xi is an unsubtle one.

The FT’s Gideon Rachman characterises Trump as arriving at Xi’s court in a state of supplication, having effectively lost the trade war vs China and the shooting war vs Iran. This perhaps overstates the weakness of Trump’s position by ignoring the fact that the US has tightened its grip on global energy supply chains and has shown that is has the power to put its foot on the hosepipe of Chinese energy imports whenever it likes. In the flurry of commentary over China’s bumper trade surplus in April, it seems to have been missed that import volumes for crude oil were down sharply, but values were higher. Yesterday’s April PPI figures for China also underscored the uncomfortable effects that the Iran war is having on the Chinese industrial economy.

Xi will be acutely aware of this, and he will also be aware that the US holds similar power to disrupt Chinese food imports if it was of a mind to do so. Seapower IS power, as the shipbuilding plan should remind us all. In this respect, Trump holds better cards than the FT is giving him credit for. Perhaps it is no coincidence that China bought more soybeans in April than it had done for months.

Some more of Trump's latest commentary amid his hope for a 'good' Xi meeting:

Trump: If you have the right president, I don't think Taiwan invasion will happen. I have a very good relationship with President Xi.

We're 9,500 miles away. He's 67 miles away. But there’s a lot of support for Taiwan from Japan and countries in that area. 2X pic.twitter.com/8ipHIKy4pM

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) May 12, 2026

Below is a preview of the day-by-day schedule and what to expect, via Newsquawk.

*  *  *

PREVIEW: Trump-Xi Summit to take place in Beijing on May 14th-15th

• US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are set to meet in Beijing for the first time since October 2025. The public tone is expected to be warm and friendly, while the substance of the meeting will cover a range of topics.
• No breakthrough is expected in US-China relations, with attention instead focused on implications for Iran and Taiwan.The situation in Iran will likely be one of the core topics, with some fearing an Iran-for-Taiwan bargain.

SCHEDULE

• Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on the evening of Wednesday, 13th May.
• The main Trump-Xi talks are expected across Thursday, 14th May and Friday, 15th May.

THURSDAY

• The White House said Trump will meet Xi on Thursday at 10:15 Beijing time / 03:15BST / 22:15EDT.
• Thursday is expected to be the main ceremonial and diplomatic day, including a welcome ceremony, Temple of Heaven visit, formal bilateral meeting and state banquet.
• The banquet is scheduled for Thursday at 18:00 Beijing time / 11:00BST / 06:00EDT.

FRIDAY

• Discussions are expected to continue on Friday, including extended talks and a working lunch before Trump’s departure later in the day.

AGENDA

• Iran: A primary focus will be the war in Iran, with the US pressing China to use its influence over Tehran to support de-escalation, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and curb oil-funded escalation.
• Taiwan: Taiwan is expected to be one of the most sensitive issues, with concern focused on whether Xi pushes Trump for softer US language on Taiwan independence or restraint on arms sales.
• Russia: The US is expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including revenue flows, dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons-related support.
• Strategic guardrails: The leaders are expected to discuss a possible formal AI communication channel to manage military and cyber risks, alongside nuclear arms-control issues, although Beijing remains cautious on nuclear arsenal transparency.
• Commercial: The summit could produce major “big win” announcements, including Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft, agricultural products such as soybeans and beef, and energy.
• Board of Trade/Investment: Proposals are on the table for a bilateral Board of Trade and Board of Investment, designed to manage trade and investment flows through formal channels rather than relying mainly on tariff escalation.

DETAILS

Iran/Strait of Hormuz

• Primary summit focus: The war in Iran, which began after US and Israeli strikes on 28th February, is expected to be one of the dominant geopolitical issues at the meeting.
• US pressure on Beijing: Washington is said to be pressing China to use its influence over Tehran, given China’s role as a major buyer of Iranian oil, to push Iran towards a deal and support efforts to end the conflict.
• Strait of Hormuz: The US is expected to press China to help secure the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China’s position: Beijing has so far avoided joining a US-led pressure campaign against Tehran, while continuing to call for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution.
• China’s exposure: China’s dependence on Gulf energy flows gives it a direct interest in ending the Hormuz disruption.
• Sanctions: Days before the summit, on May 11th, the US issued new sanctions against three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.

Taiwan

• Arms sales: Trump said he will discuss US arms sales to Taiwan with Xi, alongside other sensitive issues, including Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai. The Trump admin announced a more than USD 11bln weapons package for Taiwan in December, the largest-ever US weapons package for Taiwan.
• No policy change: US officials have said the Trump-Xi summit signals no change in longstanding US policy toward Taiwan.
• China’s position: China said its stance against US arms sales to Taiwan is “consistent and clear.” Beijing continues to frame Taiwan as a core issue and a red line in US-China relations.
• Semiconductor angle: Taiwan’s strategic importance is also tied to the US technology supply chain, particularly semiconductors and advanced manufacturing.
• South China Sea: Regional security is likely to come up alongside Taiwan, military communication and wider US-China strategic competition. The South China Sea remains a persistent flashpoint, with US concerns around Chinese military activity and Chinese objections to US regional deployments and alliances in the region, such as the AUKUS security pact.

Iran-for-Taiwan Risk

• Linkage: There has been reporting and speculation that Beijing could seek to trade help on Iran or the Strait of Hormuz for US restraint on Taiwan, including softer language on Taiwan independence or reduced pressure around arms sales.
• Concerns: The concern is that Beijing may offer help on Iran or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in return for softer US language on Taiwan or restraint on arms sales. Politico reported that diplomats from Asian and European countries are worried Trump could make an off-script statement that appears to shift US policy on Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have expressed concern about being “on the menu” during the Trump-Xi talks.
• Shift in Language: The key wording risk is a shift from the current US formulation of “we do not support Taiwan independence” to Beijing’s preferred wording of “we oppose Taiwan independence.” Desks suggest that a shift would be significant as Beijing could use it to challenge routine US-Taiwan engagement, including arms sales, lawmaker visits and other political contacts.
• US Position: Despite the speculation, US officials have publicly stated that US policy toward Taiwan will not change at the summit.

China's Backing of Iran and Russia

• Direct confrontation: Trump is expected to press Xi over China’s economic and material support for Iran and Russia.
• Iranian oil: China remains a major buyer of Iranian oil, and Washington views those flows as helping Tehran withstand US pressure and finance military activity.
• Russia links: The US is also expected to raise China’s economic ties with Russia, including whether Chinese trade is helping Moscow sustain its war effort.
• Dual-use goods: Officials cited concerns around Chinese dual-use goods, components, parts and potential weapons exports to Iran and Russia.
• Iran weapons sanctions: On 8th May, the US imposed sanctions on individuals and companies, including China- and Hong Kong-based entities, accused of helping Iran obtain materials for Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.
• Iran oil sanctions: On 11 May, the US imposed separate sanctions on three individuals and nine companies accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China.
• 50% tariff threat: Trump previously threatened 50% tariffs on imports from countries supplying military weapons to Iran, with no exemptions.

Trade

• Trump tariff stance: Trump commented that the US needs more tariffs, keeping tariff risk firmly on the table.
• Trade-truce extension: The two sides are expected to discuss whether to extend the existing trade-war truce.
• Unclear timing: A US official said it is not yet clear whether the agreement will be extended this week, but expressed confidence that it will eventually be extended.
• October meeting: Trump and Xi's last meeting in October in South Korea resulted in a pause to a trade war that had seen the US impose triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing threaten rare earth restrictions.
• Tariff Legality: Trump has vowed to reimpose some tariffs through alternative legal avenues after the Supreme Court said in February.
• Investments
• Trade and investment forums: Reports suggested that the US and China are expected to agree on forums to facilitate mutual trade and investment.
• Board of Trade / Board of Investment: A Board of Trade and Board of Investment may be formally announced, although officials said these mechanisms may require further work before implementation.
• Chinese purchase announcements: China is expected to announce purchases related to Boeing (BA) aircraft, US agriculture and energy.
• Sectors to watch: The main areas to watch are aircraft, agriculture, energy, trade flows, investment access, market-opening commitments, payments access, technology restrictions and regulatory approvals.
• Delegation: Executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) are part of, or linked to, the US business delegation. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending due to earnings, while NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang is not attending.

AI

• AI channel: Trump and Xi are expected to discuss creating a formal US-China communication channel on AI-related security risks.
• US concern: US officials are increasingly concerned about advanced Chinese AI models and their potential military, cyber and intelligence uses.
• Military risk: Talks are expected to cover AI risks in autonomous weapons, cyber operations and military decision-making.
• Nuclear guardrails: AI may also be discussed alongside nuclear stability, including keeping AI out of nuclear launch decisions.
• Export controls: Any AI dialogue will sit against the backdrop of US chip controls and wider tech restrictions on China.
• Nuclear arms-control
• US stance: Washington has long sought nuclear arms-control talks with Beijing.
• China's stance: China has privately told the US it has no current interest in sitting down for nuclear arms-control discussions.
• No breakthrough: Expectations for a breakthrough on nuclear arms control remain low, but even agreement to continue dialogue would be net constructive.

Fentanyl

• US stance: The US is expected to press China on precursor chemicals and enforcement against supply chains linked to the opioid crisis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 15:00

CME Launching Futures Market For AI Compute

US derivatives exchange CME Group and index provider Silicon Data have teamed up to create a futures market for computing power, a key source driving the AI boom. Bloomberg reports that the futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings. Indexes from market-intelligence firm Silicon Data will help underpin the products. The project is still pending regulatory review.

“As the backbone of the digital economy, compute is the new oil of the 21st century,” CME CEO Terry Duffy said in the statement. “Every AI model trained, every transaction cleared and every byte of data processed runs on compute, which is becoming a fast-emerging asset class in its own right.”

CME’s addition of compute futures signals a broader shift to make the asset tradable like other commodities. Creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent and raise overall market efficiency. 

Computing power, better known as "compute", has seen soaring demand as AI companies use it to power their systems. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said last week that a new asset class will likely be buying futures of compute given the shortage and high demand.

Futures contracts, which give investors the ability to bet on the future value of a commodity such as oil or metals at a certain date, are traded on exchanges such as Chicago-based CME’s, and require a brokerage account that’s approved to trade futures.

The need for compute power has been growing as AI technologies have scaled. But until now, it’s been difficult to hedge against price swings and other costs.

The index from Silicon Data, which is backed by trading firm DRW Holdings, provides a benchmark for traders and others to follow, giving insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of graphics processing unit computing power.

Silicon Data, founded by former DRW trader Carmen Li, created daily GPU benchmarks for on-demand rental rates, giving customers insight into the cost of goods for those building AI products or in need of GPU computing power.

The company’s Silicon Data H100 Rental Index tracks the hourly cost of renting a GPU, which is the workhorse for training AI models.

A data center typically uses hundreds or even thousands of processors, which can cost thousands of dollars.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 14:55

Labor Unions Join Banking Industry In Opposition To Senate Crypto Bill, The Clarity Act

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

Five of the nation’s largest labor organizations are urging the Senate to vote against a pending cryptocurrency market structure bill, warning that the legislation would expose retirement accounts to digital asset volatility ahead of a key committee vote Thursday.

The AFL-CIO, Service Employees International Union, American Federation of Teachers, National Education Association, and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees sent letters and emails to Senate Banking Committee members, according to CNBC, which obtained the correspondence first.

The crypto industry takes ‘risks’

The groups wrote that the bill “jeopardizes the stability of workers’ retirement plans, including public pensions, and introduces significant volatility to retirement savings accounts.”

“This legislation invites the cryptocurrency industry to take outsized risks, knowing that if those risky bets do not pay off, it is working people and retirees, not crypto billionaires, who will pay the price,” the unions wrote in a joint letter to all senators.

The AFL-CIO, in a separate email to Banking Committee members, warned that “absent sufficient regulation, embedding cryptocurrencies and other digital assets into the real economy will have a destabilizing effect, while benefiting issuers and platforms at the expense of working people.”

The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to mark up and vote on the bill Thursday. Despite months of bipartisan talks, it remains unclear whether any Democrats on the committee will vote in favor of the measure. Several lawmakers say the bill needs more work on ethics, conflict-of-interest, and security provisions.

Labor groups are not the sole source of opposition. The American Bankers Association has also pushed back on updated language in the bill concerning stablecoin holdings. ABA CEO Rob Nichols wrote to bank executives on May 10 that a provision barring cryptocurrency firms from paying yield on payment stablecoins remains a threat to traditional bank deposits, arguing it would “unnecessarily incentivize the flight of bank deposits.” 

The crypto industry, in contrast, has backed the revised language, with Coinbase voicing support for the restriction.

Michael Saylor chimes in

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor took a position in favor of the legislation. In a post on X, Saylor wrote that the bill “would unlock the next wave of Digital Capital, Digital Credit, and Digital Equity in the U.S. and globally,” calling it a framework for “STRC-powered digital yield markets” and a signal of “institutional validation for BTC.”

The key language: the bill recognizes activity-based rewards tied to payment stablecoins and distributed ledger participation as “critical to enabling innovation, competition, and consumer adoption.” That is the path to responsible digital yield markets. https://t.co/PTpjmmkqO1

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) May 12, 2026

The crypto industry has identified the bill as its top legislative priority this session. Whether that momentum carries through committee — and into a full Senate vote — now depends on resolving opposition from organized labor, traditional banks, and a block of Senate Democrats who have yet to commit their support.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 14:40

Nelson Peltz's Trian Discussing Wendy's Go-Private Takeover

Shares of Wendy's jumped in premarket trading after the Financial Times reported that Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management is considering taking the hamburger chain private and is seeking investors to back the deal.

FT noted:

Trian in recent weeks has held discussions with outside investors, including in the Middle East, about financing a potential takeover of Wendy's, according to people familiar with the matter.

Earlier this year, Trian stated in a regulatory filing that Wendy's is "currently undervalued," fueling speculation that Peltz would push for significant changes.

FT's report continued:

Trian has not made a formal approach to buy Wendy's and there is no guarantee that the financing discussions will result in a takeover bid, the people said. Peltz pushed for Wendy's to consider strategic options in 2022 before backing down a year later.

Trian's possible take-private bid comes as Wendy's stock remains locked in a 72% bear market since its 2020 peak near $25 per share. The chain has faced sluggish traffic, higher beef costs, and intensified competition from McDonald's, Burger King, and Chipotle.

Wendy's shares track USDA retail beef prices (inverted) ...

Wendy's is currently executing a "Fresh Start" turnaround plan to boost U.S. sales, update its menu, and shutter underperforming restaurants.

For Peltz, Wendy's current valuation appears to be 'price is right'…

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 13:35

Dismal, Tailing 10Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand Since Jan 2025 As Yields Soar

With 30Y yields trading on the wrong side of 5% today, all eyes were on today's 10Y refunding auction to see if it would be ugly enough to push yields to 4.50% or higher. Here is what happened.

Just after 1pm, the Treasury announced that the high yield on today's sale of $42 billion in 10Y paper was 4.468%, the highest yield since Jan 2025, and a 0.4bps tail to the When Issued 4.464%, the 4th consecutive tail for benchmark 10Y auctions.

The bid to cover was 2.402, down from 4.249 and the lowest since February (below the six auction average of 2.47).

Internals were also weaker, with foreign bidders awarded just 63.95%, down from 65.32% a month ago and the lowest since Jan 2025, and a far worse than the recent average of 68.5%. And with Directs taking 24.1%, the highest since Jan 26, Dealers were left holding 12.0%, slightly higher than the 10.3% recent average.

Overall, this was a very poor, tailing auction, and the only reason bonds yields are not much higher is because they were already very high to begin with, highest since July 2025 to be precise. However, the lack of demand suggests that the next move in yields is likely to be even higher, the only question being where will it stop...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 13:21

Pakistan 'Categorically Rejects' Reports It Hid Iranian Military Planes From US Attack

A day after initial allegations were first widely reported, Pakistan's government has issued a public rejection of claims that it hosted Iranian military aircraft in order to shield them from coming under US-Israeli attack during the opening weeks of Operation Epic Fury.

However, Islamabad in the statement did acknowledged the presence of some Iranian planes at its airports - but described these as legitimate escorts related to high level diplomatic visits and contacts.

Iranian jets targeted by US military during Epic Fury

"Following the ceasefire and during the initial round of the Islamabad Talks, a number of aircraft from Iran and the United States arrived in Pakistan to facilitate the movement of diplomatic personnel, security teams and administrative staff associated with the talks process," a Tuesday statement by Pakistan said. "Some aircraft and support personnel remained temporarily in Pakistan in anticipation of subsequent rounds of engagement."

The initial Monday headlines suggesting Pakistan sought to protect Iranian military assets resulted in some outrage in D.C. and among the pundit class.

A late in the day Monday CBS News report alleged that US-ally Pakistan allowed Iran to park military aircraft at its airfields, and thus outside the US-Israeli strike zone during Operation Epic Fury:

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes, according to U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan. It was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights, two of the officials told CBS News. 

President Trump and admin officials have repeatedly declared the utter and total destruction of Iran's air force and navy, but apparently some planes were missed.

According to more from CBS: 

Together, the movements reflected an apparent effort to insulate some of Iran's remaining military and aviation assets from the expanding conflict, even as officials publicly served as brokers for de-escalation. 

The U.S. officials, who all spoke only under condition of anonymity to discuss national security issues, told CBS News that days after President Trump announced the ceasefire with Iran in early April, Tehran sent multiple aircraft to Pakistan Air Force Base Nur Khan, a strategically important military installation located just outside the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi. 

One well-known war correspondent who spends time in Pakistan appeared to back Pakistan's account:

As someone who was also in Pakistan for weeks after the Islamabad talks waiting in hope of round two, this checks out:

“Following the ceasefire and during the initial round of the Islamabad Talks, a number of aircraft from Iran and the United States arrived in Pakistan to… https://t.co/eLyANnlUMG

— Caitlin Doornbos (@CaitlinDoornbos) May 12, 2026

Islamabad is further framing the CBS story as one which seeks to dampen confidence in its role as a neutral mediator, as the warring sides still seek to hammer out a basis for future talks and a peace deal.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 13:00

"Actions Speak Louder Than Words": Can Tom Steyer Now Sue Katie Porter For Defamation?

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

California gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer has run on the slogan of “actions speak louder than words.”

It may now be time for him to prove it and bring a defamation action against opponent Katie Porter for her accusations that he engaged in dirty politics.

Porter used a CNN interview to accuse Steyer of finding and leaking the infamous video of her abusing a staffer and yelling “Get out of my f**king shot.”

Katie Porter’s campaign for governor has languished at around ten percent, even after the implosion of Eric Swalwell as the frontrunner among Democratic candidates. At times, she appears to be seeking to win by profanity rather than policies, holding up signs reading “F**k Trump” and other insults.

On CNN’s Inside Politics, however, Porter may have gone too far with her rhetoric. She told Dana Bash that it was Steyer who stabbed her in the back with the video:

“Well, given that Tom Steyer is the person who leaked the video with me and the staffer from five years ago, he pretty clearly wanted to be governor bad enough to knock me down to do it.”

Steyer’s campaign immediately denied the allegation, insisting (through spokesperson Sepi Esfahlani) “Tom has nothing to do with that video. This is an attempt from Katie Porter to deflect from her past mistakes. Katie Porter only has one person to blame for her standing in the race, and it’s herself.”

As for Bash, the host clearly wanted to set the network apart from Porter’s claims, stating at the end of the interview “I should note that we don’t have evidence that Steyer leaked that video of you. If you have it, please bring it.”

That evidence has not been forthcoming.

The question is whether Porter has produced a more viable defamation case than a political campaign.

At the outset, Steyer would face the higher burden as a public figure.

In New York Times v. Sullivan, the Supreme Court crafted the actual malice standard, requiring public officials to shoulder the higher burden of proving defamation. Under that standard, an official would have to show either actual knowledge of its falsity or a reckless disregard of the truth.

The standard was later extended to public figures.  The Supreme Court has held that public figure status applies when  someone “thrust[s] himself into the vortex of [the] public issue [and] engage[s] the public’s attention in an attempt to influence its outcome.” A limited-purpose public figure status applies if someone voluntarily “draw[s] attention to himself” or allows himself to become part of a controversy “as a fulcrum to create public discussion.” Wolston v. Reader’s Digest Association, 443 U.S. 157, 168 (1979).

Steyer is a full public figure.

Yet, if Porter has no evidence of his connection to the videotape, this could satisfy either the actual malice or the reckless disregard elements.

However, is it defamatory to accuse a fellow politician of playing dirty?

The release of the videotape was not a criminal act and Porter does not suggest such a violation in her accusation. She is simply saying that Steyer will do most anything to win, including dirty tricks.

Richard Nixon, Hillary Clinton, and others have been accused of dirty tricks in politics. It is a standard accusation in politics.

Yet, Steyer has denied the allegation, so Porter is also effectively calling him a liar.

This is not a matter of opinion alone.

Certainly, Porter’s view of Steyer’s character and ambition is an opinion. However, whether he was the one who released the video is either true or it is not.

The Porter claim is meant to lower Steyer’s reputation with the public, though she can claim that all political battles are ultimately an attack on character, capability, or both.

The controversy touches on a sometimes subtle point of fact v. opinion.

The case reminds one of Mr. Chow of New York v. Ste. Jour Azur, 759 F.2d 219, (2d Cir. 1985), where a Chinese restaurant sued a food critic for a negative review. The reviewer made the following allegedly libelous comments:

(1) “It is impossible to have the basic condiments … on the table.”

(2) “The sweet and sour pork contained more dough … than meat.”

(3) “The green peppers … remained still frozen on the plate.”

(4) The rice was “soaking … in oil.”

(5) The Peking Duck “was made up of only one dish (instead of the traditional three).”

(6) The pancakes were “the thickness of a finger.”

The jury found for the restaurant and awarded $20,000 in compensatory and $5 in punitive damages. However, the court of appeals reversed, holding that the statements were protected as “opinion.” Notably, the statement about the Peking Duck came closest in the court’s view since it was a factual statement, but the court still found that it would not support the verdict due to the absence of malice:

Because of the absence of evidence showing either that Bridault or Millau knew that Peking Duck was not traditionally served as three dishes or that they subjectively entertained serious doubts about the accuracy of the statement that it is traditionally served in three dishes, we cannot say that the existence of malice has been established by clear and convincing evidence. Thus, this statement cannot support the judgment entered below.

Here, Porter claims that Steyer was the culprit behind the video release despite Steyer’s denials.

Generally, broadcast statements on the news are treated as libel as opposed to slander.

Steyer could even attempt to argue that this is a per se category of defamation by impugning his integrity. It is not necessary in California to allege an actual criminal act so long as the statement attacks the person’s integrity as to bring him into disrepute. Maher v. Devlin (1928) 203 Cal. 270, 275. This includes falsely charging a person with “a violation of confidence reposed in him or with treachery to his associates.” Dethlefsen v. Stull (1948) 86 Cal.App.2d 499, 502.

It is admittedly a close case and Porter could argue opinion defenses. Truth also remains a defense if Porter can do as Bash requested and bring the receipts for the allegation.

In the end, Steyer may not consider the powder worth the prize when it comes to Porter. It would, however, make for a more interesting case than the campaign of either candidate.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 12:20

Shadow Wars: IRGC Operatives Tried To Infiltrate Kuwait, Firefight Ensues

Kuwait and Iran are barely separated by a small section of Iraqi coastline at the head of the Persian Gulf, but they do share a maritime border. But given the small oil-rich Sunni sheikdom's close proximity to the Islamic Republic, and given its historic role in hosting American forces and bases, it is to be expected that it would be heavily targeted in Iranian military operations.

Indeed, Kuwait has alongside the UAE absorbed some of the biggest ballistic missile and drone attacks out of Israel during the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury. US forces have even had to retreat to other locations deeper in the Middle East or even outside the theatre, given the repeat attacks and looming threat of new attack even amid broader ceasefire.

But in tandem with an air war, there's has been a covert war happening in the shadows, with Kuwait's interior ministry newly announcing on Tuesday it has arrested four 'infiltrators' affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). The ground attack incident is said to have happened earlier this month, and involved heavy exchanges of fire.

IRGC special operator, file image: Iran International

The elite IRGC operatives reportedly tried to enter the Gulf state by sea, per Kuwait state news agency KUNA. A firefight ensued, and the ministry later confirmed one member of Kuwait’s armed forces was seriously wounded in resulting clashes with the infiltrating small group of Iranians.

The Interior Ministry accused the IRGC operatives of seeking to launch "hostile" activities inside Kuwait. "Confession of the infiltration group to Kuwaiti territories during interrogation with them of their affiliation to the Revolutionary Guard in the Islamic Republic of Iran," the ministry stated.

KUWAIT HAS SUMMONED IRAN’S AMBASSADOR AFTER ALLEGING THAT IRGC PERSONNEL INFILTRATED BUBIYAN ISLAND & CLASHED WITH KUWAITI SECURITY FORCES

It appears that only two of the Iranian group are in custody while two escaped, per an initial statement. As for the operatives in custody, "They confessed to being tasked with infiltrating Bubiyan Island aboard a fishing boat rented specifically to carry out hostile acts against Kuwait," the official Kuwaiti statement added.

Other sources, including the defense ministry, say that all four have been detained and identified, amid early conflicting reports:

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry reported on May 3 that naval Col. Amir Hossein Abdolmohammad Zaraei, naval Col. Abdolsamad Yedaleh Ghanavati, naval Capt. Ahmad Jamshid Gholamreza Zolfaghari and 1st Lt. Mohammad Hossein Sohrab Foroughi Rad had been arrested in territorial waters after attempting to infiltrate Bubiyan Island.

Kuwaiti Armed Forces stationed on Bubiyan Island exchanged fire with the men during the confrontation, resulting in severe injuries to one service member.

Bubiyan is the largest of a group of eight islands belonging to Kuwait, lying in the north-western corner of the Persian Gulf. Importantly, the large island is home to Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, part of China's Belt and Road initiative.

Kuwait is a very small country and Bubiyan Island is not some distant place but strategically located close to population centers and energy sites although the island itself is empty. pic.twitter.com/Fdd8RU3NqS

— Alberto Miguel Fernandez (@AlbertoMiguelF5) May 12, 2026

That the alleged Iranian high-risk operation focused on an island with a key China-built port is quickly becoming focus of Western media reports. According to ABC:  

Kuwait accused Iran on Tuesday of sending an armed paramilitary Revolutionary Guard team to launch a failed attack earlier this month on an island in the Middle East nation home to a China-funded port project.

The accusation by Kuwait of an Iranian link to the incident came just before U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Tehran has yet to acknowledge or own up to the incident, and is not expected to, unless it is an outright denial. 

One freight and oil transit industry headline from early March underscores just how ambitious and costly the China-backed project remains: Kuwait, China Advance USD 4.1 Billion Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port Project...

Kuwait and China have agreed to strengthen their commercial and maritime cooperation through the construction of a new container port on Kuwait’s Bubiyan Island. The project marks a significant step in deepening bilateral economic ties and enhancing the oil-rich country’s strategic position within regional shipping networks.

The Chinese majority state-owned firm China Communications Construction Company will undertake the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) works for the project’s first phase.

The development of the new container hub in the north of the country is expected to expand Kuwait's port capacity and reinforce its role in both regional and global trade flows.

Chinese-funded Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port project 

And yet, current Kuwaiti oil export flows remain forcibly halted, due to the Strait of Hormuz closure and ongoing standoff, which has on the one hand seen Iran target 'unauthorized' foreign shipping with drones and missiles, and on the other seen the US Navy maintain its own blockade of Iranian ports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 11:45

"Like Band-Aid On An Arterial Bleed": Ranchers Warn Trump's Proposed Beef Tariff Cut Offers Only Temporary Relief

Summary:

• Cattle ranchers respond with first-takes on proposed policies from White House 

• Tuesday: Trump team is "fine-tuning" an executive order aimed at reducing ‌domestic beef prices

• Monday: Tyson Sinks, Walmart Falls After Trump Moves To Temporarily Lower Beef Import Tariffs

Ranchers Respond

Following Monday afternoon's WSJ report that the White House will temporarily cut beef import tariffs, we spoke with three ranchers across America's beef-producing corridor, centered on the Great and Southern Plains, to gauge industry sentiment.

The message from all three, including Elkins Cattle Company, Beck Ranch, and KC Cattle Company, premier ranchers featured in the ZeroHedge Store, was broadly the same: the proposed policy may briefly ease pressure on ground beef prices at the supermarket, but it does little to address the deeper structural crisis facing the nation's cattle herd and could further weaken domestic producers.  

With U.S. herds already near historic lows and ranchers still battered by elevated costs for diesel, labor, fertilizer, equipment, and transportation, a flood of cheap imported beef risks pushing cattle prices lower without reducing producers' operating expenses.

In other words, Trump's potential move to ease beef prices at the store appears aimed at boosting affordability ahead of the midterms. What needs to happen is for the administration to push pro-growth policies that rebuild America's cattle supply over the medium to long term.

By Tuesday morning, Reuters reports that the Trump team is "fine-tuning" an executive order aimed at reducing ‌domestic beef prices.

"The president is committed to lowering beef and other grocery costs for everyday Americans, and the administration is accordingly fine-tuning potential executive actions to alleviate temporary shortages in the domestic beef market," the White House told the outlet in an emailed statement.

Here's the first take from Tim Elkins of Elkins Cattle Company (of Texas):

Here is how I see it:

Tariff-rate quota is basically a penalty threshold that gets removed. This in turn, allows imported beef to enter at lower tarrifs. US cattle herds are at record lows BUT we have slowly been rebuilding. By removing this barrier this is going to drive cattle prices down.

While that’s GOOD for consumers, it’s VERY bad for us cattle ranchers. Our input costs are still sky high. Think: Transport (diesel costs), tractor parts, labor, fertilizer etc. These costs DONT come down for us with this. It just makes us compete with lower cost, lower quality imported beef.

With supply rising due to this, it will lower consumer costs, but it doesn’t change our input costs. We already have been subsiding a lot of the costs because the consumer will simply not pay the prices, meaning lower profit margins to us.

To the point of barely surviving the way it is today with cattle prices are RECORD HIGHS. The main brunt of this will be felt amongst Cow-Calf operators (who grow herds) and stocker operations (feeders).

The BIG winners here, again, is the BIG 4 packers who have a monopoly on the industry. (Tyson, JBS, Cargill, National Beef).

Lowers costs for them while putting American Ranchers/Farmers in the backseat… If these imports suppress cattle prices, as I expect they will, US-based ranchers will likely not grow herds aggressively in a time where herds are already EXTREMELY low.

This doesn’t fix anything and in fact kicks the can down the road to a bigger problem. Also, most of this will be seen in “Trimmings” of the cow often used to make ground beef/hamburgers.

Due to the quality of the animals coming in from oversees being so much worse than US raised beef, it is HIGHLY unlikely that you will see your higher end steak prices come down at all.

Our “trimmings” prices, which typically is the only area cattle producers can make any return on, will be forced lower, which will CRUSH US beef producers.

However, your typical McDonald’s burger, at today’s prices, will just return the difference to big corporations and the BIG 4. By NO WAY, does this support US ranches/farms. Rather, puts most on the brink of total collapse.

I think personally that this is a serious threat on US producers and will strain many ranchers to the point of shutting their doors.

Over time, we have put the BIG 4 in the driver's seat while ignoring the folks that have done all the heavy lifting and doing the right thing day after day.

Second take is from Annalisa Beck of Bech Ranch (of Wyoming):

Tariff-rate quota suspension is intended to address short-term beef supply shortages and high consumer prices. This will only be a short-term fix.

The price of the calf at auction is currently at its highest. The entire cattle-raising part of the country is in a drought.

The price of hay, fertilizer, diesel fuel, and other inputs are at their highest. Those high-priced calves haven't even hit the store shelves yet; we are about a year away from that.

However, we have seen a dramatic increase in the direct-to-consumer prices, especially in the operations that don't raise all of their own cows from birth (some are selling their ground beef for $18/lb - this makes me want to choke).

The only way to fix the problem long term is to lower input prices (diesel, fertilizer, hay), lower the price the rancher is getting at auction (which will actually force more ranchers out of the system), or realize that $12 for a pound of ground beef that will feed a family of 4 at $3/serving is really not that expensive when everyone is ok with a $7 12 oz latte, or a $14 value meal that only feeds one person.

I think instead of screaming that the prices are too high, we need to educate the consumer that good, locally raised, nutrient-dense food is worth the investment.

The third take is from Patrick Montgomery of KC Cattle Company (of Missouri):

I understand why the Trump administration is doing this. Beef is too expensive at the grocery store. The cattle inventory is at historic lows. RFK is publicly pleading with American ranchers to stop selling their breeding stock and they won't, because the economics of ranching are broken. Your average cattleman wants to retire and there is no next generation replacing him. Trump needs consumer prices down by the midterms and suspending the TRQ is the fastest lever he can pull.

I get it. But this is a band-aid on an arterial bleed.

The real problem is structural and neither side of the aisle will touch it. Fix the money. Not through more subsidies. Not through grants. Bring back an actual free market for agriculture.

America is not capable of feeding its own populace anymore.

Here is why.

Crop land. America's farmland overwhelmingly produces corn and soybeans. Much of that goes to export or gets processed into products we should not be consuming. Why? Because it is heavily subsidized and farmers are incentivized to grow it. This has been the case for over 50 years, dating back to Earl Butz's "get big or get out" USDA policy in the early 1970s. Before Butz, American farms were diversified. After Butz, we became a monoculture economy. Ironically, Butz was Cargill's guy.

If our country ripped away those subsidies today it would be disastrous because we have lost the ability to grow anything else at scale. We don't have the implements for American farmers to produce vegetables and diversified crops at volume. We have degraded our soil health with decades of artificial fertilizers, herbicides, and fungicides. We do not have the logistics infrastructure to move a consumable product from an American farm to an American kitchen. And we have lost the institutional knowledge. Three generations of farmers have known nothing but corn and beans.

Protein is equally broken. Why would anyone start a ranching operation to break even or lose money and on a good year net 2%? Warren Buffett would not invest in that business and neither will the next generation of farmers.

Since the pandemic we have exported our beef production to countries like Brazil at an accelerating rate. According to Austin Frerick's book Barons, Brazil dedicates a landmass the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined to producing beef for the American market. Brazilian companies own controlling equity in two of the Big Four packers. JBS is publicly traded and their annual 10K filings over the last few years are fascinating if you understand what has been happening to the domestic supply chain. Why would Brazilian-owned companies care if American ranches disappear? That is good for their business. Happy to go deeper on that if it is useful.

Our largest pork producer is Smithfield, owned by a CCP-held entity. Given the current state of the world that should concern everyone.

The part that scares me most. Syngenta controls the proprietary seed genetics that go into American farm ground. Syngenta is directly owned by the CCP. Subsidized dollars from American farmers flow directly into a Chinese state owned company that controls what we can plant and how we plant it.

So what is the fix? Fix the money.

We do not need more subsidies. We need food sovereignty. American farmers cannot compete against imports produced under less regulation at cheaper cost. Suspending the TRQ makes that problem worse in the short term even if it helps consumers at the register.

I do like the SBA access-to-capital piece. That is the single hardest barrier in farming. But without structural reform, those dollars end up subsidizing the mega corporations that sit between the farmer and the consumer, not the farmer.

One more layer to this that I think matters.

Peter Zeihan has been writing for years about the unraveling of the post World War 2 global trade order. The system established at Bretton Woods in 1944, where America guaranteed freedom of the seas and open markets in exchange for alliance solidarity, has governed global commerce for 80 years. That system is coming apart. We are watching it in real time. The fallout with the EU. Britain going its own direction. The fracturing of traditional trade partnerships including with China. Increasingly common conflicts involving Iran and Venezuela designed to apply pressure. Our own push toward energy independence.

The world is becoming less global and more national. Most people in Washington understand this when it comes to energy. When it comes to semiconductors. When it comes to defense manufacturing.

The question I hear no one in power asking is this. What happens if we poke the bear and they turn off our food? What is the contingency plan for a country that cannot feed itself without foreign controlled supply chains, foreign owned processing, and foreign owned seed genetics?

Maybe that plan exists and it is classified. But I do not see how it works when the same entities that control our protein processing also have deep economic ties to the countries we are applying pressure to. Follow the ownership structures. Follow the money. The vulnerability is not theoretical. It is sitting in plain sight.

That is why food sovereignty is not a consumer issue. It is a national security issue. And until the people making policy treat it that way, we are going to keep putting bandaids on a problem that requires surgery.

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Tyson Sinks, Walmart Falls After Trump Moves To Temporarily Lower Beef Import Tariffs

Tyson Foods and Walmart shares moved lower around noon in New York, while major Brazilian meatpacker Minerva Foods moved higher on a Wall Street Journal report that says the White House will temporarily cut beef import tariffs

According to the WSJ report, the plan would suspend the annual tariff-rate quota, which imposes higher duties once import limits are reached, allowing more foreign beef to flood the U.S. at lower tariff rates to suppress soaring prices.

The move comes as the U.S. cattle herd has fallen to a 75-year low, driving the latest USDA national average supermarket beef prices to near $7 per pound, squeezing meat processors and pushing consumers into trade-downs to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork.

Walmart shares are down about 2.5% around noon.

Tyson Foods shares dropped about 4.5%.

Meanwhile, Brazilian meatpacker Minerva is up nearly 2%.

Related beef coverage: 

• "No Quick Fixes": Supply-Chain Deep Dive Shows Beef Prices To Remain High

• US Beef Cow Cycle Low Set To Deepen, Keeping Steak Prices High

• DoJ Opens Criminal Probe Into Meatpacking Cartel As Food Stocks Slide

The move by the Trump administration to put a ceiling on ground beef and steak prices comes ahead of the midterm elections, as a race to make things more affordable in the wake of the energy price spike following the U.S.-Iran war becomes a central focus again.

We suspect U.S. ranchers won't be too happy about foreign meats set to flood the U.S. in even greater quantities. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 11:33

'Could Resonate Globally': Korea Sparks Market Chaos With 'AI Tax' Threat

Korean markets were under pressure overnight after politicians floated the idea of tapping AI profits. 

Bloomberg reports that a top South Korean policymaker said the nation should pay citizens a 'dividend' using taxes on AI profits, with the obvious read through to Samsung and SK Hynix. 

The comments in a Facebook post by presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom fueled sharp swings in Korean stocks on Tuesday as investors struggled to parse the scope of the proposals.

“Excess profits in the AI era are, by nature, concentrated,” Kim wrote.

Memory companies, core engineers and asset holders in Seoul are highly likely to receive substantial benefits, while much of the middle class may experience only indirect effects, he said.

The size of any potential dividend, and other details on how Kim’s proposals might be implemented, weren’t immediately clear.

Still, investors took notice.

“After some 80% gain this year, the market was getting sensitive to any news that can trigger investor jitters,” said Kim Dojoon, chief investment officer at Zian Investment Management.

“Policy chief Kim’s post was easy to draw misunderstanding from the market at such a moment.”

The benchmark KOSPI initially plunged as much as 5.1% (more than $300 billion in market cap)...

The weakness spread into Europe and is dragging down Nasdaq futures in the pre-market...

But, as the impact of his statement spread across markets, damage control quickly hit with the influential policy adviser clarifying he wanted to tap "excess tax revenue" generated from the AI boom, rather than roll out a new windfall levy on corporate profits.

An official at the president’s office told Bloomberg News that Kim’s remarks represented his personal opinion and weren’t the subject of formal discussions.

However, the episode is the latest example of politicians calling attention to how the advent of AI risks widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.

In South Korea, that concern has surfaced in public calls for industry leaders to share more of the spoils of the global AI infrastructure rollout.

While Kim’s ideas are preliminary, if they were to be rolled out it would mark one of the first concerted government efforts to share the proceeds of the boom.

As Goldman's One-Delta desk-head, Rich Privorotsky, noted this morning, this feels like a theme that could resonate globally given the extreme concentration of AI earnings and the fact that the benefits skew so disproportionately to mega cap winners. 

The  speed of fast money/retail chasing semis, plus the proliferation of 2x/3x levered structures in Korea and the US, gives me pause about the fragility building into this rally but obviously the core of thesis, 'we need more tokens' remains unshaken.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 11:30

Global Coal Demand Surges As Middle East Energy Crisis Deepens

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via Oilprice.com,

Global coal shipments and imports surged in March and April as buyers scrambled for fuel amid massively disrupted oil and gas supply from the Middle East.

The trend has been accelerating in recent weeks, and global coal imports are on track to reach their third-highest monthly level on record, according to estimates by analytics platform Kpler cited by the Financial Times.

In the wake of the worst oil and gas supply disruption in history, coal is back in demand, so much so that even countries and regions that believed coal use was in an irreversible terminal decline have boosted imports.

For example, last month coal shipments to South Korea, Japan, and the European Union surged by 27% from a year earlier, data from BIMCO, the world’s biggest shipowners’ association, said last week.  

The Asian importers and the European bloc are scrambling for alternatives to gas supply from the Middle East, currently trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz or not produced at all in Qatar, which halted LNG production as early as on March 2 and two weeks later sustained damages to the world’s largest LNG complex, Ras Laffan, from Iranian missile strikes.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted LNG shipments out of the Persian Gulf and has contributed to an 8% y/y drop in global seaborne LNG shipments in April,” BIMCO said.

South Korea has pushed back the retirement of coal-fired power generation capacity amid the oil and gas shock caused by the Middle East war.

Europe, for its part, is currently losing the competition with Asia for spot LNG supply, at a time when it needs to fill gas storage sites ahead of the next winter.

Energy security concerns are shifting policy responses, accelerating coal usage across key Asian and European markets, and delaying coal plant retirements, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 11:05

As Hantavirus Cases Rise, US Officials Say Risk To Public "Very, Very Low"

A total of 11 hantavirus cases have been confirmed as of Tuesday morning, with global health officials warning that the number could rise.

The risk to the public from an illness called the hantavirus is low, a U.S. official said on May 11.

“Let me be crystal clear: the risk of hantavirus to the general public remains very, very low,” Dr. Brian Christine, assistant secretary for health and head of the U.S. Public Health Service, told reporters during a briefing in Omaha, Nebraska.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had said in a May 8 health alert to doctors and health departments that doctors should be aware that imported hantavirus cases were possible but that “the risk of broad spread to the United States is considered extremely unlikely at this time.”

As Zachary Stieber reports for The Epoch Times, multiple people on board the M.V. Hondius, which departed from Argentina on April 1 and traveled to remote locations, including Antarctica, contracted a variant of the hantavirus called the Andes variant.

Three have died.

Christine said on Monday that “the Andes variant of this virus does not spread easily, and it requires prolonged close contact with someone who is already symptomatic.”

An American cruise ship passenger who tested positive on one test and negative on another was transported early Monday to the biocontainment unit at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, officials said. That individual is doing well and has no symptoms, Dr. Angela Hewlett, director of the unit, said at the briefing. That person will be tested again at some point.

Fifteen other Americans, including a British American, who were on the Hondius were admitted around the same time into a separate area called the quarantine unit. They have not displayed symptoms. They may be tested, based on conversations between physicians and those individuals, officials said.

Two additional Americans who were aboard the ship were transported to a biocontainment unit at Emory University in Atlanta. One of those Americans has shown symptoms of hantavirus; the other is that person’s partner.

The people being cared for at the facilities in Nebraska and Georgia can leave after they have been symptom-free for at least a few days, according to Dr. Brendan Jackson, acting director of the CDC’s Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology.

Other Americans who previously left the Hondius are in contact with state officials and have been told that if they develop symptoms, they should alert their doctors and those officials, Jackson said.

Symptoms of the hantavirus include fever, fatigue, and shortness of breath.

The virus typically spreads from contact with infected rodents, but officials say it may have been transmitted from person-to-person on the cruise ship.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, acting CDC director, said over the weekend that hantavirus is “not COVID” because it does not transmit as easily.

“I can assure you that the CDC has been absolutely on top of this outbreak,” he said.

“There’s not a great wealth of information,” said WHO epidemiologist Olivier le Polain during a public briefing Monday.

“We don’t know how much it might spread just before people develop symptoms.”

Decades of experience in South America have shown the virus to be associated with “rare human-to-human transmission after close and prolonged contact with a sick, infected person,” Erica Pan, California’s public health officer, told reporters Monday.

But the available evidence is limited.

No indications of a larger outbreak of the deadly hantavirus have appeared so far, a World Health Organization official said on May 12.

“At the moment, there is no sign that we are seeing the start of a larger outbreak,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organization’s director-general, told reporters in Madrid, Spain, during a press conference with Spain’s prime minister.

“But, of course, the situation could change, and given the long incubation period of the virus, it’s possible we might see more cases in the coming weeks.”

The incubation period for the Andes variant of the virus is up to 42 days.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 10:45

Massive Life Support

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Markets Strategist At Rabobank

Massive Live Support

“On massive life support” was Donald Trump’s characterization of the US-Iran ceasefire yesterday. This followed Sunday’s rejection of Iranian terms for peace that Trump described as “totally unacceptable”. In a boy-who-cried-wolf-style sign of growing market insensitivity to Presidential prognostications, Brent was only up 2.88% to $104.21/bbl and WTI crude remains below $100/bbl. Dated Brent rose by 0.6% yesterday to $105.62. This even as the Wall Street Journal reports that the UAE has been “secretly” carrying out attacks on Iran, including on refining infrastructure. 

US equities closed broadly higher but European stocks were mixed. The FTSE100 eked out gains despite (because of?) fresh signs that Keir Starmer’s premiership is also on “massive life support” as more than 70 of his own MPs have now publicly voiced opinions that the Prime Minister should go following last week’s shellacking at the hands of the Reform party in local government elections. The French CAC40 fell by 0.69% and the German DAX was virtually unchanged. Asian stocks also had a mixed session earlier in the day with losses for Japanese and Australian indices, but gains for chip-heavy markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan.

Bond markets have been more unified in their gloom over the last 24 hours. Yields on US 10s were unchanged at 4.41%, but virtually everywhere else saw chunky rises in benchmark borrowing costs. Yields on 10-year OATs were up 3.9bps, 3.5bps for Bunds, while Gilts saw yields spike 8.6bps in a sign that bond traders might be thinking it’s a case of “better the devil you know” when it comes left-of-centre Prime Ministers in the UK.

With the prime ministerial instability gauge now well and truly pointed towards “embattled”, Starmer gave a speech yesterday that was intended to strike a tone of defiance and send the message that he wouldn’t be going anywhere. In that speech he suggested that he had not been sufficiently radical in forcing the pace of change, that the UK needed to forge closer military and economic ties with the EU, and that “if we don’t get this right, our country will go down a very dark path” - by which he presumably means it would elect Nigel Farage as his replacement.

This might sound like a curious response to the rising appeal of a Eurosceptic party channelling popular sentiment that the country has already changed too much, too fast, while the incumbent government’s revealed lack of electoral appeal suggests that many voters think the country is already headed down a very dark path under Starmer’s leadership. The implication here is that Starmer isn’t really fighting Reform, but the rise of the left-wing Green party who are siphoning off erstwhile Labour votes. Clearly, the center cannot hold and we should expect even more intense polarisation ahead, and probably more damage to the budget. Whither the Gilt market?

Speaking of budgets, Starmer isn’t the only Anglosphere Labour leader saying that things aren’t changing fast enough. Australian PM Albanese made the same comment in relation to his country’s poisonously expensive housing market this week as his Treasurer prepares to deliver the Commonwealth budget later today.

As is now the norm for budgets, most of the major initiatives have been strategically leaked well in advance and a wind-back of investor tax concessions has been telegraphed as a social cohesion measure to placate Gen Zs angry about their effect on house prices (for our detailed thoughts on this, see here). The budget is also expected to introduce new rules for discretionary trust distributions to be taxed at the company rate (to reduce their appeal as a tax-minimisation device) alongside measures to boost defence spending and cut the pace of growth in the welfare state – something that Starmer was unable to secure support for among his own MPs.

Treasurer Chalmers has said there will be a focus on resilience with “more than the usual amount of savings, and more than the usual amount of [tax] reform”. Overall, the vibe seems to be a tightening of fiscal settings – which ought to be welcomed by the RBA – coupled with tax nudges to direct a greater volume of capital toward the productive sectors of the economy rather than allowing it to congeal in the housing market. Whither Aussie bonds?

Of course, while all this is going on the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed and world fertilizer and energy markets are treading air like Wile-e-Coyote run off the cliff. Donald Trump will be traveling to Beijing tomorrow to meet with Xi Jinping. Finding a resolution to the war is sure to be at the top of the agenda, with Trump likely to press Xi to lean on his Iranian and Russian allies to seek peace in their respective theatres. Russia has made conciliatory noises in recent days, while Iran has indicated a willingness to hand over some highly enriched uranium to an unspecified third party (Russia?). Is there a grand bargain to be made?

In a case of curious timing, the US just imposed fresh sanctions on individuals and firms involved in facilitating Iranian oil sales to China, and Acting Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao yesterday released a new 30-year shipbuilding plan. That plan anticipates the acquisition of 11 nuclear-powered Trump class battleships, new underwater drones, and an ongoing review to the Ford class aircraft carrier design to increase lethality and reliability while reducing unit costs and production lead times. The planned expansion of the US fleet and shipbuilding industrial base is undoubtedly a reaction to China’s growing naval strength and substantial advantage in production capacity. The message to Xi is an unsubtle one.

The FT’s Gideon Rachman characterises Trump as arriving at Xi’s court in a state of supplication, having effectively lost the trade war vs China and the shooting war vs Iran. This perhaps overstates the weakness of Trump’s position by ignoring the fact that the US has tightened its grip on global energy supply chains and has shown that is has the power to put its foot on the hosepipe of Chinese energy imports whenever it likes. In the flurry of commentary over China’s bumper trade surplus in April, it seems to have been missed that import volumes for crude oil were down sharply, but values were higher. Yesterday’s April PPI figures for China also underscored the uncomfortable effects that the Iran war is having on the Chinese industrial economy.

Xi will be acutely aware of this, and he will also be aware that the US holds similar power to disrupt Chinese food imports if it was of a mind to do so. Seapower IS power, as the shipbuilding plan should remind us all. In this respect, Trump holds better cards than the FT is giving him credit for. Perhaps it is no coincidence that China bought more soybeans in April than it had done for months.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/12/2026 - 10:25

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